From 8fd0230bd4335048ca2f827b0ef32cd0e321063a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Sun, 28 Mar 2021 14:02:57 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] Daily commit --- data/csetforetell-questions.json | 140 +- data/goodjudgment-questions.json | 36 +- data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json | 745 +- data/hypermind-questions.json | 120 +- data/ladbrokes-questions.json | 52 +- data/metaculus-questions.json | 7796 +++++++++--------- data/metaforecasts.csv | 3720 +++++---- data/metaforecasts.json | 11340 +++++++++++++------------- data/polymarket-questions.json | 750 +- data/predictit-questions.json | 1078 +-- data/smarkets-questions.json | 194 +- 11 files changed, 12985 insertions(+), 12986 deletions(-) diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json index f575046..08d6546 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json @@ -7,32 +7,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.5%", - "probability": 0.1035, + "probability": 0.1117, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%", - "probability": 0.1857, + "probability": 0.2214, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2843, + "probability": 0.3429, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2084, + "probability": 0.1877, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 12%", - "probability": 0.2181, + "probability": 0.1363, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "45", - "numforecasters": "37", + "numforecasts": "56", + "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -85,17 +85,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "11", - "numforecasters": "10", + "numforecasts": "12", + "numforecasters": "11", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -106,32 +106,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 7,500", - "probability": 0.0483, + "probability": 0.0405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.135, + "probability": 0.12300000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", - "probability": 0.2728, + "probability": 0.2775, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", - "probability": 0.3044, + "probability": 0.3145, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 13,500", - "probability": 0.2394, + "probability": 0.2445, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "29", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "32", + "numforecasters": "28", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -250,32 +250,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.0481, + "probability": 0.048799999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.10640000000000001, + "probability": 0.1074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.2288, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3295, + "probability": 0.32789999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2871, + "probability": 0.28600000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "63", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "64", + "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -286,17 +286,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "114", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -316,7 +316,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", + "numforecasts": "163", "numforecasters": "130", "stars": 3 }, @@ -405,12 +405,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3181, + "probability": 0.31679999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.2977, + "probability": 0.2991, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -424,7 +424,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasts": "127", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3 }, @@ -436,7 +436,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.0525, + "probability": 0.052300000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -446,21 +446,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", - "probability": 0.35979999999999995, + "probability": 0.359, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", - "probability": 0.2379, + "probability": 0.239, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 million", - "probability": 0.1466, + "probability": 0.1464, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "101", + "numforecasts": "102", "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3 }, @@ -472,17 +472,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0496, + "probability": 0.0495, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3077, + "probability": 0.3074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3317, + "probability": 0.33240000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -492,11 +492,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.12119999999999999, + "probability": 0.1208, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "124", + "numforecasts": "125", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, @@ -616,16 +616,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "128", + "numforecasts": "130", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, @@ -637,21 +637,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Zero", - "probability": 0.40630000000000005, + "probability": 0.40880000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "One", - "probability": 0.33899999999999997, + "probability": 0.3373, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Two or more", - "probability": 0.2547, + "probability": 0.2539, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "103", + "numforecasts": "104", "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, @@ -720,27 +720,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0356, + "probability": 0.0352, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.10220000000000001, + "probability": 0.1042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2347, + "probability": 0.2343, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6275, + "probability": 0.6263000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "211", - "numforecasters": "129", + "numforecasts": "213", + "numforecasters": "131", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -787,12 +787,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 15%", - "probability": 0.0742, + "probability": 0.0746, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18780000000000002, + "probability": 0.1888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -802,16 +802,16 @@ }, { "name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%", - "probability": 0.2742, + "probability": 0.2735, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 21%", - "probability": 0.1426, + "probability": 0.1419, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "135", + "numforecasts": "136", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, @@ -832,8 +832,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "166", - "numforecasters": "127", + "numforecasts": "168", + "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -880,32 +880,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 675", - "probability": 0.5716, + "probability": 0.5722, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22260000000000002, + "probability": 0.2249, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", - "probability": 0.11019999999999999, + "probability": 0.1091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", - "probability": 0.061900000000000004, + "probability": 0.060700000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 900", - "probability": 0.0337, + "probability": 0.0331, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", - "numforecasters": "78", + "numforecasts": "139", + "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json index 465874b..c09a93c 100644 --- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json @@ -17,17 +17,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -94,12 +94,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -133,22 +133,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.6 billion", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -200,17 +200,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -234,12 +234,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -335,12 +335,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -504,12 +504,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json index 5fee408..76ac7f6 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json @@ -7,17 +7,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "0", - "numforecasters": "0", + "numforecasts": "27", + "numforecasters": "27", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -28,17 +28,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1", - "numforecasters": "1", + "numforecasts": "26", + "numforecasters": "22", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -54,17 +54,17 @@ }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -95,17 +95,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$180 billion or more", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "28", - "numforecasters": "24", + "numforecasts": "29", + "numforecasters": "25", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -130,8 +130,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "55", - "numforecasters": "50", + "numforecasts": "59", + "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -147,17 +147,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -166,8 +166,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "46", - "numforecasters": "33", + "numforecasts": "48", + "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -183,17 +183,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -202,8 +202,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "67", + "numforecasts": "99", + "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -224,17 +224,17 @@ }, { "name": "Mank", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Minari", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -258,8 +258,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "79", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -275,22 +275,22 @@ }, { "name": "Mank (David Fincher)", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -299,8 +299,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "52", - "numforecasters": "37", + "numforecasts": "55", + "numforecasters": "39", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -311,17 +311,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "103", - "numforecasters": "70", + "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -342,22 +342,22 @@ }, { "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19.0 million", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "181", - "numforecasters": "111", + "numforecasts": "198", + "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -368,17 +368,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -388,17 +388,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "93", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "96", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -409,17 +409,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "95", - "numforecasters": "70", + "numforecasts": "99", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -430,7 +430,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -440,17 +440,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -459,8 +459,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "64", - "numforecasters": "41", + "numforecasts": "68", + "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -471,7 +471,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -486,12 +486,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "164", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "167", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -511,7 +511,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "59", + "numforecasts": "61", "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3 }, @@ -552,130 +552,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "173", - "numforecasters": "62", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click \"Export\" for file download options).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 15,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "95,000 or more", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "153", - "numforecasters": "47", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 100,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "900,000 or more", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "462", - "numforecasters": "105", + "numforecasts": "178", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -716,12 +594,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -740,69 +618,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "588", - "numforecasters": "154", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 4,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "20,000 or more", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "425", - "numforecasters": "100", + "numforecasts": "634", + "numforecasters": "157", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -822,7 +639,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "141", + "numforecasts": "142", "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3 }, @@ -834,12 +651,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -848,7 +665,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "76", + "numforecasts": "78", "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 3 }, @@ -860,17 +677,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "512", - "numforecasters": "369", + "numforecasts": "521", + "numforecasters": "372", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -891,12 +708,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 14 and 18", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -905,8 +722,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "399", - "numforecasters": "264", + "numforecasts": "407", + "numforecasters": "268", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -926,8 +743,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "416", - "numforecasters": "339", + "numforecasts": "424", + "numforecasters": "343", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -947,8 +764,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "234", - "numforecasters": "189", + "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasters": "194", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -969,12 +786,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -983,8 +800,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "298", - "numforecasters": "197", + "numforecasts": "306", + "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1019,7 +836,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "79", + "numforecasts": "81", "numforecasters": "26", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1031,12 +848,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1055,7 +872,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "180", + "numforecasts": "185", "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1077,12 +894,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1091,7 +908,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "154", + "numforecasts": "157", "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1117,8 +934,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "137", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "140", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1134,17 +951,17 @@ }, { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "539", - "numforecasters": "347", + "numforecasts": "550", + "numforecasters": "352", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1155,16 +972,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "80", + "numforecasts": "81", "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1176,16 +993,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "184", + "numforecasts": "190", "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1197,17 +1014,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "211", - "numforecasters": "75", + "numforecasts": "218", + "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1227,8 +1044,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "93", - "numforecasters": "53", + "numforecasts": "95", + "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1248,8 +1065,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "258", - "numforecasters": "117", + "numforecasts": "261", + "numforecasters": "118", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1269,8 +1086,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "189", - "numforecasters": "140", + "numforecasts": "190", + "numforecasters": "141", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1300,7 +1117,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "183", + "numforecasts": "184", "numforecasters": "123", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1321,7 +1138,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "168", + "numforecasts": "169", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1333,7 +1150,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brooklyn Nets", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1348,7 +1165,7 @@ }, { "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1362,7 +1179,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", + "numforecasts": "149", "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1383,7 +1200,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", + "numforecasts": "160", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1425,8 +1242,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "296", - "numforecasters": "110", + "numforecasts": "303", + "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1437,12 +1254,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1456,8 +1273,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "253", - "numforecasters": "142", + "numforecasts": "256", + "numforecasters": "143", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1492,7 +1309,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", + "numforecasts": "159", "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1513,8 +1330,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "100", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "101", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1530,16 +1347,16 @@ }, { "name": "Same", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "94", + "numforecasts": "96", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1560,8 +1377,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "222", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "230", + "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1581,7 +1398,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "158", + "numforecasts": "160", "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1602,7 +1419,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "281", + "numforecasts": "284", "numforecasters": "154", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1610,7 +1427,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a19161b08131c13191b0e131514093a1d15151e100f1e1d171f140e5419151745090f18101f190e472b0f1f090e1315145f484a39161b08131c13191b0e131514). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e4878885968d828d8785908d8b8a97a4838b8b808e91808389818a90ca878b89db9791868e818790d9b5918197908d8b8ac1d6d4a78885968d828d8785908d8b8a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1623,7 +1440,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "405", + "numforecasts": "409", "numforecasters": "197", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1645,12 +1462,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1659,7 +1476,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "412", + "numforecasts": "425", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1681,22 +1498,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 22 and 28", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29 or more", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "609", - "numforecasters": "120", + "numforecasts": "651", + "numforecasters": "122", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1737,7 +1554,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "296", + "numforecasts": "304", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1758,7 +1575,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "88", + "numforecasts": "89", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1775,12 +1592,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1789,8 +1606,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "185", - "numforecasters": "91", + "numforecasts": "188", + "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1841,7 +1658,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "216", + "numforecasts": "223", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1862,7 +1679,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "110", + "numforecasts": "111", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1879,7 +1696,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1889,7 +1706,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1898,7 +1715,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "245", + "numforecasts": "247", "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1945,7 +1762,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasts": "127", "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1966,7 +1783,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "279", + "numforecasts": "280", "numforecasters": "139", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1987,7 +1804,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "262", + "numforecasts": "263", "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2077,17 +1894,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2096,7 +1913,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "286", + "numforecasts": "287", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2143,7 +1960,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "111", + "numforecasts": "112", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2164,7 +1981,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "172", + "numforecasts": "175", "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2176,16 +1993,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "224", + "numforecasts": "233", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2211,7 +2028,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "490", + "numforecasts": "495", "numforecasters": "197", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2242,8 +2059,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "452", - "numforecasters": "216", + "numforecasts": "454", + "numforecasters": "217", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2263,7 +2080,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "282", + "numforecasts": "283", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2284,7 +2101,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "375", + "numforecasts": "376", "numforecasters": "228", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2305,7 +2122,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "297", + "numforecasts": "298", "numforecasters": "103", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2336,7 +2153,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "349", + "numforecasts": "353", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2393,7 +2210,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasts": "274", "numforecasters": "99", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2414,7 +2231,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "86", + "numforecasts": "87", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2435,7 +2252,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "414", + "numforecasts": "415", "numforecasters": "209", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2513,7 +2330,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "274", + "numforecasts": "280", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2556,16 +2373,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "475", + "numforecasts": "481", "numforecasters": "208", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2587,7 +2404,7 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2597,7 +2414,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2606,8 +2423,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "221", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "223", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2627,7 +2444,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "612", + "numforecasts": "613", "numforecasters": "202", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2663,7 +2480,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "566", + "numforecasts": "573", "numforecasters": "252", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2699,8 +2516,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1852", - "numforecasters": "602", + "numforecasts": "1868", + "numforecasters": "608", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2721,17 +2538,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "350,000 or more", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "519", - "numforecasters": "217", + "numforecasts": "524", + "numforecasters": "218", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2751,8 +2568,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "343", - "numforecasters": "207", + "numforecasts": "345", + "numforecasters": "208", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2772,8 +2589,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "574", - "numforecasters": "253", + "numforecasts": "579", + "numforecasters": "254", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2793,7 +2610,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "235", + "numforecasts": "237", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2814,7 +2631,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "339", + "numforecasts": "340", "numforecasters": "187", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2835,7 +2652,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "332", + "numforecasts": "334", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2862,16 +2679,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "319", + "numforecasts": "324", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2892,7 +2709,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "241", + "numforecasts": "244", "numforecasters": "60", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2934,7 +2751,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasts": "274", "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2970,8 +2787,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1480", - "numforecasters": "211", + "numforecasts": "1487", + "numforecasters": "212", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2991,7 +2808,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "301", + "numforecasts": "302", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3012,7 +2829,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasts": "208", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3048,7 +2865,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "158", + "numforecasts": "159", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3105,7 +2922,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "574", + "numforecasts": "576", "numforecasters": "157", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3126,8 +2943,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "772", - "numforecasters": "156", + "numforecasts": "778", + "numforecasters": "157", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3162,8 +2979,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "518", - "numforecasters": "228", + "numforecasts": "523", + "numforecasters": "230", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3198,7 +3015,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "510", + "numforecasts": "512", "numforecasters": "94", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3229,7 +3046,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "490", + "numforecasts": "493", "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3293,7 +3110,7 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3303,7 +3120,7 @@ }, { "name": "Spain", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3317,8 +3134,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "387", - "numforecasters": "115", + "numforecasts": "390", + "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3353,8 +3170,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "707", - "numforecasters": "204", + "numforecasts": "709", + "numforecasters": "205", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3374,8 +3191,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1181", - "numforecasters": "455", + "numforecasts": "1183", + "numforecasters": "456", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3416,7 +3233,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "344", + "numforecasts": "345", "numforecasters": "154", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3428,16 +3245,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "741", + "numforecasts": "744", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3473,7 +3290,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "882", + "numforecasts": "887", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3536,7 +3353,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "660", + "numforecasts": "662", "numforecasters": "186", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3572,8 +3389,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "476", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "477", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3603,8 +3420,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "329", - "numforecasters": "73", + "numforecasts": "336", + "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3639,7 +3456,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "376", + "numforecasts": "379", "numforecasters": "121", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3651,7 +3468,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3661,7 +3478,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3670,7 +3487,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "312", + "numforecasts": "315", "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3687,17 +3504,17 @@ }, { "name": "1 or 2", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3 or 4", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5 or 6", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3706,7 +3523,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "287", "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3737,8 +3554,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "894", - "numforecasters": "307", + "numforecasts": "900", + "numforecasters": "308", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3758,7 +3575,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "298", + "numforecasts": "299", "numforecasters": "138", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3770,16 +3587,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "673", + "numforecasts": "677", "numforecasters": "143", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3810,7 +3627,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "249", + "numforecasts": "250", "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3918,8 +3735,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1210", - "numforecasters": "188", + "numforecasts": "1214", + "numforecasters": "190", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3949,8 +3766,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2214", - "numforecasters": "886", + "numforecasts": "2234", + "numforecasters": "898", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3970,7 +3787,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "245", + "numforecasts": "246", "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3991,8 +3808,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1111", - "numforecasters": "473", + "numforecasts": "1119", + "numforecasters": "476", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -4008,26 +3825,26 @@ }, { "name": "Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2,200,000", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "298", + "numforecasts": "301", "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3 }, @@ -4151,7 +3968,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "287", + "numforecasts": "288", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, @@ -4173,12 +3990,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -4187,7 +4004,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "439", + "numforecasts": "441", "numforecasters": "149", "stars": 3 }, @@ -4229,7 +4046,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "307", + "numforecasts": "308", "numforecasters": "135", "stars": 3 } diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json index 8405395..ee2ad77 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.json +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json @@ -82,57 +82,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.04950495049504951, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.12871287128712872, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5686274509803921, + "probability": 0.5445544554455446, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.14705882352941177, + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,22 +146,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.6734693877551021, + "probability": 0.6435643564356436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.11224489795918367, + "probability": 0.1089108910891089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.17346938775510204, + "probability": 0.20792079207920794, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.04081632653061225, + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -194,17 +194,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.8350515463917525, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.12371134020618556, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.04123711340206185, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -218,17 +218,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Japan", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.8627450980392156, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Same medals count", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -257,32 +257,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.02912621359223301, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.17475728155339806, + "probability": 0.06930693069306931, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.3203883495145631, + "probability": 0.2178217821782178, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.46601941747572817, + "probability": 0.693069306930693, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -296,27 +296,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In May or earlier", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in June (government goal)", - "probability": 0.3725490196078431, + "probability": 0.44554455445544555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in July", - "probability": 0.4411764705882353, + "probability": 0.3564356435643565, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in August", - "probability": 0.08823529411764705, + "probability": 0.07920792079207921, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "probability": 0.09900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -421,12 +421,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44029850746268656, + "probability": 0.44360902255639095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5597014925373135, + "probability": 0.556390977443609, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -440,27 +440,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Denis Sassou Nguesso", - "probability": 0.951923076923077, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mathias Dzon", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -547,27 +547,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.020408163265306124, + "probability": 0.020618556701030924, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.28571428571428575, + "probability": 0.28865979381443296, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.3673469387755102, + "probability": 0.37113402061855666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.17346938775510204, + "probability": 0.17525773195876287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.15306122448979592, + "probability": 0.14432989690721648, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -581,17 +581,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.8285714285714285, + "probability": 0.8365384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another Likud politician", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another politician not from Likud", - "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -668,27 +668,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "in Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.12658227848101267, + "probability": 0.051948051948051945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.17721518987341775, + "probability": 0.1948051948051948, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.21518987341772153, + "probability": 0.2207792207792208, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.24050632911392406, + "probability": 0.24675324675324675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.24050632911392406, + "probability": 0.2857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -702,22 +702,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.05102040816326531, + "probability": 0.028571428571428567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.5816326530612245, + "probability": 0.5142857142857142, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.29591836734693877, + "probability": 0.32380952380952377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.07142857142857144, + "probability": 0.13333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -736,7 +736,7 @@ }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.05208333333333334, + "probability": 0.04166666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -746,7 +746,7 @@ }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.04166666666666667, + "probability": 0.05208333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -817,12 +817,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.888888888888889, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11111111111111112, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json index a1d7876..466db97 100644 --- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json +++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json @@ -1768,27 +1768,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Cooper (Green)", - "probability": 0.00915359010936757, + "probability": 0.009070561903640004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)", - "probability": 0.00915359010936757, + "probability": 0.009070561903640004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stewart Golton (LD)", - "probability": 0.00915359010936757, + "probability": 0.009070561903640004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tracy Brabin (Lab)", - "probability": 0.8404660009510223, + "probability": 0.8328425020614912, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Robinson (Cons)", - "probability": 0.13207322872087493, + "probability": 0.13087525032394862, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wajid Ali (Reform)", + "probability": 0.009070561903640004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1801,52 +1806,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.45349705670653817, + "probability": 0.44229638394840987, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4748660279649614, + "probability": 0.49144042660934434, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.004512408524443166, + "probability": 0.004400959044262785, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.017784198302217183, + "probability": 0.017344956233270977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)", - "probability": 0.03488438897742602, + "probability": 0.026017434349906464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SDP", - "probability": 0.004512408524443166, + "probability": 0.004400959044262785, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heritage Party", - "probability": 0.0018103674918424676, + "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "UKIP", - "probability": 0.0018103674918424676, + "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Womens Equality Party", - "probability": 0.0018103674918424676, + "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "North East Party", - "probability": 0.004512408524443166, + "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sam Lee (Ind)", + "probability": 0.004400959044262785, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2456,12 +2466,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.4638069705093834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.5361930294906166, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2596,22 +2606,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.8406168766829473, + "probability": 0.8702787392475269, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.13209693776446316, + "probability": 0.10249949595581984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.01813095224218122, + "probability": 0.01808814634514468, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.009155233310408337, + "probability": 0.0091336184515087, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json index 1bcd5b7..92eab21 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.json +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json @@ -26,18 +26,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 356, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -66,32 +92,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 347, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", @@ -109,7 +109,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 256, + "numforecasts": 259, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -118,6 +118,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", + "numforecasts": 144, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/", @@ -149,29 +175,133 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", + "numforecasts": 585, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", + "numforecasts": 185, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", + "numforecasts": 235, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -180,7 +310,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -189,21 +319,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/", @@ -221,7 +336,7 @@ } ], "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 1068, + "numforecasts": 1071, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -246,44 +361,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", + "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", - "numforecasts": 153, + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" } }, { @@ -301,21 +390,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 193, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", @@ -374,7 +448,7 @@ } ], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 285, + "numforecasts": 286, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", @@ -383,6 +457,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", @@ -398,6 +487,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", + "numforecasts": 226, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", @@ -414,18 +544,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -434,7 +564,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -458,6 +588,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", @@ -480,17 +640,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", @@ -499,47 +659,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 324, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", @@ -597,18 +716,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 622, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -626,21 +756,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", @@ -656,6 +771,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/", @@ -672,59 +817,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -754,74 +858,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n", - "numforecasts": 16, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", - "numforecasts": 226, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -850,13 +898,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 147, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", + "numforecasts": 148, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -865,43 +958,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will One Piece end?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", @@ -911,59 +974,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 119, + "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/", + "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers.\nNCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated:\n\"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\"\nNCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard.\nWill the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.\nPositive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -981,6 +1018,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", @@ -997,29 +1064,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 106, + "options": [], + "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", + "numforecasts": 150, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1038,18 +1094,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 371, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1073,7 +1140,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", @@ -1098,29 +1165,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", + "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 279, + "options": [], + "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1129,7 +1185,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -1154,18 +1210,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", + "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n", + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1195,59 +1262,48 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", + "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", - "numforecasts": 98, + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", + "numforecasts": 508, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", + "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1276,6 +1332,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/", @@ -1291,6 +1362,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", + "numforecasts": 143, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/", @@ -1317,58 +1414,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T19:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", - "numforecasts": 139, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 254, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", @@ -1405,7 +1450,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", @@ -1429,21 +1474,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will PHP die?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 96, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/", @@ -1486,18 +1516,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/", + "title": "When will PHP die?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1516,18 +1546,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", + "title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1582,114 +1612,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", - "numforecasts": 194, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 11, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 219, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-12T19:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", @@ -1716,6 +1638,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-12T19:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/", @@ -1731,62 +1683,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", - "numforecasts": 503, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", - "numforecasts": 228, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/", @@ -1802,13 +1698,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", + "numforecasts": 228, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -1817,47 +1728,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", @@ -1889,33 +1759,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", + "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" } }, { @@ -1948,62 +1829,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/", @@ -2031,18 +1856,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", + "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 178, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2060,36 +1926,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 28, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/", @@ -2105,6 +1941,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/", @@ -2172,62 +2023,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 581, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", @@ -2254,6 +2049,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", @@ -2295,47 +2105,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 518, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", - "numforecasts": 366, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", @@ -2377,6 +2146,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", + "numforecasts": 189, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", @@ -2403,47 +2202,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/", @@ -2470,36 +2228,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", @@ -2526,6 +2254,73 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", + "numforecasts": 177, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", @@ -2543,7 +2338,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 130, + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", @@ -2567,62 +2362,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", - "numforecasts": 106, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 237, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -2649,6 +2388,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n", + "numforecasts": 129, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-26T10:02:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 159, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/", @@ -2666,7 +2435,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n", - "numforecasts": 400, + "numforecasts": 403, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", @@ -2691,18 +2460,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/", + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 642, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-15T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-26T10:02:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2711,7 +2480,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 232, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -2721,33 +2490,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", + "numforecasts": 2787, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2776,32 +2541,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2777, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/", @@ -2809,17 +2548,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -2828,21 +2567,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 147, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", @@ -2860,7 +2584,7 @@ } ], "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 169, + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -2870,18 +2594,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/", + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-26T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T19:09:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2940,32 +2675,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", @@ -2992,6 +2701,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 78, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", @@ -3009,7 +2733,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", @@ -3059,36 +2783,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/", @@ -3120,33 +2814,48 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", + "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3164,21 +2873,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:43:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-02T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-02-18T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T09:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -3237,7 +2931,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -3247,29 +2941,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", + "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 455, + "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3278,7 +2972,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -3287,32 +2981,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 168, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", @@ -3328,21 +2996,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", @@ -3358,6 +3011,62 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "numforecasts": 630, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/", @@ -3375,7 +3084,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 405, + "numforecasts": 409, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -3400,18 +3109,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3420,7 +3144,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -3498,7 +3222,7 @@ } ], "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -3507,6 +3231,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/", @@ -3554,7 +3293,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -3578,21 +3317,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", @@ -3620,33 +3344,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 152, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T02:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3676,18 +3385,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", + "numforecasts": 214, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3717,44 +3426,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", - "numforecasts": 108, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 230, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3763,7 +3457,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n", - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z", @@ -3772,51 +3466,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 92, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", - "numforecasts": 150, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/", @@ -3843,47 +3492,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 371, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", @@ -3968,7 +3576,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", @@ -3978,74 +3586,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", + "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1161, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4065,7 +3617,7 @@ } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 193, + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -4074,6 +3626,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", @@ -4095,7 +3662,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 126, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -4156,32 +3723,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/", @@ -4208,73 +3749,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 256, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", - "numforecasts": 508, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", - "numforecasts": 39, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", @@ -4282,17 +3756,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z", @@ -4301,6 +3775,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 167, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", @@ -4327,21 +3816,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", @@ -4357,6 +3831,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/", @@ -4383,66 +3872,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 64, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6916/when-will-the-suez-canal-blockage-be-cleared/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Suez Canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia. The canal offers watercraft a more direct route between the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans via the Mediterranean and Red seas, thus avoiding the South Atlantic and southern Indian oceans and reducing the journey distance from the Arabian Sea to London, for example, by approximately 8,900 kilometres (5,500 mi). It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez. Its length is 193.30 km (120.11 mi) including its northern and southern access-channels. In 2012, 17,225 vessels traversed the canal (an average of 47 per day).\nAt 07:40 Eastern European Time on 23 March 2021, the [Ever Given](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given), a Golden-class container ship, one of the largest in the world, was passing through the Suez Canal on its way to Rotterdam from Tanjung Pelepas when it ran aground, turned sideways and blocked the canal, causing the canal to be impassable, and significantly disrupting international shipping.\nAs of 24 March 2021, eight tugboats are working to re-float the vessel in collaboration with diggers removing sand from the side of the canal where the vessel is wedged.\nWhen will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?\nThis question resolves as the time and date the Suez Canal becomes navigable by commercial shipping vessels, as reported by a major news organization (e.g. AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, etc.).\nETA (26 March): Ships with a beam of at least 20 meters must be able to pass the canal for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-26T11:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/", @@ -4458,51 +3887,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n", - "numforecasts": 14, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", @@ -4519,70 +3903,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", + "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4617,7 +3960,7 @@ } ], "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", - "numforecasts": 135, + "numforecasts": 136, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", @@ -4626,47 +3969,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 114, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", @@ -4682,62 +3984,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", - "numforecasts": 189, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 157, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1345, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/", @@ -4753,58 +3999,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/", @@ -4821,44 +4015,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" } }, { @@ -4882,7 +4061,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -4891,62 +4070,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", @@ -4964,7 +4087,7 @@ } ], "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 1110, + "numforecasts": 1111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -4973,62 +4096,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n", - "numforecasts": 206, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:47:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-05T22:48:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", @@ -5055,32 +4122,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 119, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", @@ -5096,73 +4137,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", - "numforecasts": 12, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", @@ -5199,7 +4173,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -5208,58 +4182,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 630, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 182, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", @@ -5327,73 +4249,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 99, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/", @@ -5420,47 +4275,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/", @@ -5477,29 +4291,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/", + "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n", + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -5517,36 +4331,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", @@ -5592,21 +4376,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:05:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/", @@ -5622,62 +4391,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 152, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T02:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", - "numforecasts": 214, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", @@ -5708,21 +4421,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", @@ -5765,29 +4463,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 535, + "options": [], + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5831,106 +4518,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -5971,7 +4565,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", @@ -5980,32 +4574,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", @@ -6021,21 +4589,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/", @@ -6067,29 +4620,55 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", + "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", + "numforecasts": 519, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" } }, { @@ -6122,144 +4701,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 172, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 875, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", @@ -6286,58 +4727,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 586, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 163, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/", @@ -6365,85 +4754,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 221, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 83, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" } }, { @@ -6472,47 +4794,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 359, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", @@ -6540,44 +4821,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", + "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", + "options": [], + "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n", "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6607,29 +4862,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", + "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n", - "numforecasts": 358, + "options": [], + "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -6648,48 +4892,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 288, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 119, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" } }, { @@ -6698,7 +4923,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -6707,36 +4932,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 46, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", @@ -6763,6 +4958,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/", @@ -6779,18 +4989,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", + "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6849,6 +5085,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", @@ -7013,6 +5275,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/", @@ -7069,6 +5346,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", @@ -7162,32 +5465,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 216, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", @@ -7267,18 +5544,81 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", + "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 221, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -7298,7 +5638,7 @@ } ], "description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n", - "numforecasts": 490, + "numforecasts": 491, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z", @@ -7404,6 +5744,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", @@ -7421,7 +5776,7 @@ } ], "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", - "numforecasts": 300, + "numforecasts": 301, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", @@ -7436,7 +5791,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 244, + "numforecasts": 246, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", @@ -7445,6 +5800,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.20999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 102, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/", @@ -7477,7 +5858,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 103, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -7503,7 +5884,7 @@ } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 560, + "numforecasts": 564, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", @@ -7512,21 +5893,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", @@ -7548,7 +5914,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -7640,18 +6006,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/", + "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -7660,7 +6037,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -7669,6 +6046,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", @@ -7684,6 +6076,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n", + "numforecasts": 95, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/", @@ -7716,7 +6134,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -7726,55 +6144,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", + "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "options": [], + "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/", + "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", - "numforecasts": 194, + "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -7792,6 +6199,73 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", + "numforecasts": 197, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 366, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -7880,7 +6354,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 720, + "numforecasts": 721, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -7890,29 +6364,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1250, + "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n", + "numforecasts": 359, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -8016,6 +6490,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", @@ -8119,7 +6608,7 @@ } ], "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", @@ -8128,6 +6617,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-26T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T19:09:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/", @@ -8218,32 +6737,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/", @@ -8311,6 +6804,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 132, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/", @@ -8343,7 +6862,7 @@ } ], "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 316, + "numforecasts": 318, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", @@ -8378,6 +6897,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/", @@ -8419,21 +6953,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 141, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", @@ -8495,18 +7014,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", + "title": "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6879/may-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-05T23:04:00Z" } }, { @@ -8541,7 +7060,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -8556,7 +7075,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", @@ -8565,13 +7084,65 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 254, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -8586,7 +7157,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -8595,6 +7166,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", @@ -8625,6 +7211,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/", @@ -8640,6 +7252,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", + "numforecasts": 487, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", @@ -8667,55 +7305,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 486, + "options": [], + "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -8751,17 +7352,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -8785,6 +7386,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 537, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -8817,7 +7444,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", - "numforecasts": 113, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -8826,6 +7453,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 1163, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/", @@ -8975,13 +7654,54 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Russia become a democracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will Russia become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -8996,7 +7716,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n", - "numforecasts": 303, + "numforecasts": 304, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", @@ -9005,6 +7725,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", + "numforecasts": 122, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", @@ -9072,21 +7818,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 153, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/", @@ -9129,29 +7860,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/", + "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 591, + "options": [], + "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" } }, { @@ -9180,6 +7900,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", + "numforecasts": 593, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/", @@ -9236,6 +7982,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1253, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", @@ -9251,6 +8023,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nThis question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts.\n", + "numforecasts": 112, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", @@ -9272,7 +8070,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", @@ -9281,6 +8079,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/", @@ -9297,18 +8125,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/", + "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", + "numforecasts": 14, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n", + "numforecasts": 39, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -9317,7 +8171,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9327,29 +8181,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", + "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "options": [], + "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -9382,13 +8225,65 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", + "numforecasts": 122, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 588, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6874/initial-jobless-claims-in-may-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -9423,6 +8318,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/", @@ -9464,6 +8374,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-14T22:45:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 456, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", @@ -9491,29 +8427,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 287, + "options": [], + "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", + "numforecasts": 93, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -9542,32 +8482,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 221, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/", @@ -9613,6 +8527,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 224, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", @@ -9629,29 +8569,55 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/", + "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.20999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", + "numforecasts": 505, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z" } }, { @@ -9721,32 +8687,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", @@ -9788,6 +8728,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/", @@ -9855,6 +8821,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", @@ -9876,7 +8868,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -9911,6 +8903,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", @@ -9918,17 +8936,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -9954,7 +8972,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 356, + "numforecasts": 357, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -9963,6 +8981,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives vote to formally discipline a House Member?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1346, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", @@ -9978,6 +9048,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6916/when-will-the-suez-canal-blockage-be-cleared/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Suez Canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia. The canal offers watercraft a more direct route between the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans via the Mediterranean and Red seas, thus avoiding the South Atlantic and southern Indian oceans and reducing the journey distance from the Arabian Sea to London, for example, by approximately 8,900 kilometres (5,500 mi). It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez. Its length is 193.30 km (120.11 mi) including its northern and southern access-channels. In 2012, 17,225 vessels traversed the canal (an average of 47 per day).\nAt 07:40 Eastern European Time on 23 March 2021, the [Ever Given](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given), a Golden-class container ship, one of the largest in the world, was passing through the Suez Canal on its way to Rotterdam from Tanjung Pelepas when it ran aground, turned sideways and blocked the canal, causing the canal to be impassable, and significantly disrupting international shipping.\nAs of 24 March 2021, eight tugboats are working to re-float the vessel in collaboration with diggers removing sand from the side of the canal where the vessel is wedged.\nWhen will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?\nThis question resolves as the time and date the Suez Canal becomes navigable by commercial shipping vessels, as reported by a major news organization (e.g. AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, etc.).\nETA (26 March): Ships with a beam of at least 20 meters must be able to pass the canal for this question to resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 210, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-26T11:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", @@ -9993,6 +9104,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", + "numforecasts": 216, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 107, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/", @@ -10008,6 +9160,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-04-02T22:14:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 67, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", @@ -10034,10 +9201,92 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "numforecasts": 296, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 241, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -10050,14 +9299,14 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", + "numforecasts": 1261, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -10086,6 +9335,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.\n", + "numforecasts": 50, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", @@ -10144,7 +9408,7 @@ } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 268, + "numforecasts": 270, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -10153,6 +9417,47 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n", + "numforecasts": 35, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", + "numforecasts": 153, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/", @@ -10205,6 +9510,133 @@ "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will One Piece end?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n", + "numforecasts": 324, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", + "numforecasts": 194, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", @@ -10220,6 +9652,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n", + "numforecasts": 16, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/", @@ -10235,6 +9697,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", + "numforecasts": 366, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n", + "numforecasts": 19, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/", @@ -10250,6 +9742,99 @@ "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers.\nNCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated:\n\"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\"\nNCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard.\nWill the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.\nPositive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", + "numforecasts": 279, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 256, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/", @@ -10280,6 +9865,264 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 146, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", + "numforecasts": 30, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n", + "numforecasts": 14, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", + "numforecasts": 40, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", + "numforecasts": 109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 29, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 231, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", + "numforecasts": 111, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", @@ -10306,6 +10149,51 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", + "numforecasts": 82, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 195, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n", + "numforecasts": 206, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:47:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-05T22:48:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", @@ -10332,6 +10220,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/", @@ -10362,6 +10276,118 @@ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n", + "numforecasts": 44, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-02T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-02-18T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T09:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/", @@ -10388,6 +10414,114 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", + "numforecasts": 39, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/", @@ -10395,17 +10529,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 625, + "numforecasts": 640, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -10414,13 +10548,54 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 43, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 475, + "numforecasts": 478, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -10429,6 +10604,118 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", + "numforecasts": 875, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n", + "numforecasts": 101, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", + "numforecasts": 119, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", + "numforecasts": 123, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/", @@ -10552,17 +10839,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", @@ -10577,7 +10864,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.\nThe Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.\nThe Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]\nHow much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with >30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This resolves on the basis of the data by [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR).\nNote that this question resolves as gross forest coverage loss, (not net forest coverage loss), the metric therefore does not deduct tree coverage gains.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, + "numforecasts": 148, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -10760,7 +11047,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n", - "numforecasts": 191, + "numforecasts": 192, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", @@ -10898,7 +11185,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -10913,7 +11200,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\nKeyword for search: artificial womb.\n", - "numforecasts": 114, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -10984,7 +11271,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 685, + "numforecasts": 688, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -11510,7 +11797,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -11570,7 +11857,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -11805,7 +12092,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 164, + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -12100,7 +12387,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -12156,7 +12443,7 @@ } ], "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 432, + "numforecasts": 433, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -12212,7 +12499,7 @@ } ], "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 537, + "numforecasts": 538, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -12272,7 +12559,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n", - "numforecasts": 184, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -12324,7 +12611,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -12436,7 +12723,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 452, + "numforecasts": 459, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", @@ -12932,7 +13219,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 165, + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -12971,6 +13258,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 692, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", @@ -12986,21 +13288,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 691, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", @@ -13037,7 +13324,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 211, + "numforecasts": 218, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -13109,17 +13396,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -13160,7 +13447,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 172, + "numforecasts": 173, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -13588,7 +13875,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n", - "numforecasts": 302, + "numforecasts": 303, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -13603,7 +13890,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nIf whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. \n[Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the \"overshoot\" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than hardware (such as neuroscience knowledge or scanning technology), since whole brain emulation will be delayed to a time when hardware is cheaper.\nHow much computing power is required to run a whole brain emulation is not known (although rough estimates have been made by [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf), and [by fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/)). What is known is that the required power will almost certainly depend on the necessary level of resolution at which the copy of the brain needs to be modelled in order to emulate the human brain at a high level of fidelity.\nIf and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability for an hour of subjective run-time cost in 2019 USD?\nMethodology\nIn line with the methodology used in [AI Impacts (2015)](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/#Cost_of_human-level_TEPS_performance), hardware costs will be amortised over a period of three years. That is, for a given computer we consider the fixed costs of purchasing and the cost of operating it over a year. Operating costs may include maintenance, rent of related facilities (power generation/distribution, cooling systems, etc.), utilities costs (i.e. electricity) and staffing. Then, hardware costs per hour is given by:\nThis figure is then adjusted to 2019 prices using a commonly used producer's price index of the country in which the supercomputer was purchased.\nResolution\nIf a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/), the question will 365 days after the first successful emulation as the lowest hardware cost-per-hour (in 2019 prices) that is enabled by a supercomputer that is shown to run an emulation.\nThis cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully. \nBy \"cost-per-hour\" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of \"subjective time\", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of \"subjective time\".\n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-13T22:00:00Z", @@ -13685,7 +13972,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 364, + "numforecasts": 365, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -13745,7 +14032,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 237, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -13786,7 +14073,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 268, + "numforecasts": 277, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -13868,7 +14155,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).\nWhen will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?\n---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). \n---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. \n---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as \">2050-09-05\". \n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -14129,7 +14416,7 @@ } ], "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", @@ -14237,7 +14524,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.\nIn colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.\nIn that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?\nThe child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.\nA 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.\n'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 164, + "numforecasts": 165, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", @@ -14272,6 +14559,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 649, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/", @@ -14298,39 +14611,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 645, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -14509,7 +14796,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n", - "numforecasts": 229, + "numforecasts": 235, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -14681,7 +14968,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -14757,6 +15044,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 193, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/", @@ -14809,32 +15122,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6599999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/", @@ -14856,7 +15143,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -14882,7 +15169,7 @@ } ], "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -15092,17 +15379,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 177, + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", @@ -15419,7 +15706,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -15460,7 +15747,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -15654,7 +15941,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 162, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", @@ -15771,6 +16058,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/", @@ -15786,21 +16088,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/", @@ -16360,32 +16647,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1256, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/", @@ -16418,7 +16679,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", @@ -16743,7 +17004,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -16788,7 +17049,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.\nThis question asks:\nWhat will China's HDI score be in 2030?\n--- \nThis question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).\n--- \nIf the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -16844,7 +17105,7 @@ } ], "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 256, + "numforecasts": 257, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", @@ -17021,32 +17282,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2027-06-22T05:51:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/", @@ -17202,7 +17437,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -17325,7 +17560,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z", @@ -17673,21 +17908,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2101-10-10T09:10:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 291, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/", @@ -17787,7 +18007,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n", - "numforecasts": 153, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -18451,7 +18671,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n", - "numforecasts": 208, + "numforecasts": 209, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -18959,17 +19179,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
    • \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n", - "numforecasts": 194, + "numforecasts": 196, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z", @@ -19122,7 +19342,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] Emulations might also enable a type of “digital immortality” by creating back‐up copies of an individual's identity, thereby promising a type of continued survival in cyberspace after death.[[3](https://jetpress.org/v26.2/linssen_lemmens.htm)]\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of WBE: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated. However, the necessary scanning, data gathering, image interpretation, and amounts of computation required might still be beyond what our reach for some time to come. (see [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)])\nWhen will a whole human brain be successfully emulated?\nThis question resolves positive when a human brain is first successfully emulated on a computer, with the emulation being at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” defined in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion of an individual brain emulation: \nThe emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\nRequired properties of an individual brain emulation: \nCorrect internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\nEmulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -19264,7 +19484,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -19604,7 +19824,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -19892,6 +20112,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/", @@ -19909,7 +20144,7 @@ } ], "description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -19918,21 +20153,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/", @@ -20517,7 +20737,7 @@ } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5106, + "numforecasts": 5108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -21164,6 +21384,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/", @@ -21181,7 +21416,7 @@ } ], "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n", - "numforecasts": 459, + "numforecasts": 460, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -21190,28 +21425,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:16:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nFollowing the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):\nOn April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.\nSome states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. \nThese were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:\n---January 2019 676,190 \n---February 2019 615,986 \n---March 2019 738,969 \n---April 2019 719,238 \n---May 2019 751,725 \n---June 2019 754,175 \n---July 2019 783,588 \n---August 2019 783,830 \n---September 2019 716,792 \n---October 2019 750,827 \n---November 2019 703,616 \n---December 2019 728,899 \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhen will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). \nTo pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) \n---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) \n---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z", @@ -21252,7 +21472,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),\nLet an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.\nNick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),\nNote that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.\nand categorized takeoff durations into three types:\n--- \n\"A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.\"\n--- \n\"A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.\"\n--- \n\"A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.\"\nWhile it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,\nAssume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:\nWithin two years of that point? ___% chance\nWithin thirty years of that point? ___% chance\nThe median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.\nThis question is resolved based on the resolution of two other Metaculus questions. The date of resolution of when the first AGI is built is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). The date of resolution of when the first superintelligence is built is determined by the dates used to resolve [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/) (whichever version of superintelligence was developed earlier, the date of development determines the date relevant to this question).\nIf no superintelligence is constructed before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", @@ -21287,32 +21507,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n", - "numforecasts": 81, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/", @@ -21343,6 +21537,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/", @@ -21836,21 +22056,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/", @@ -22127,21 +22332,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/", @@ -22168,6 +22358,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/", @@ -22230,7 +22435,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, + "numforecasts": 232, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -22771,7 +22976,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -22827,7 +23032,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n", - "numforecasts": 476, + "numforecasts": 477, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-18T08:00:00Z", @@ -23585,17 +23790,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.\nWill any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -24152,21 +24357,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/", @@ -24923,17 +25113,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 404, + "numforecasts": 423, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -24942,21 +25132,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/", @@ -24983,6 +25158,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/", @@ -25069,32 +25259,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/", @@ -25153,7 +25317,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\nCaenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\nHas recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n1-- \nIn January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n2-- \nFor each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3-- \nContinue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", @@ -25162,32 +25326,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nThis question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/", @@ -25250,7 +25388,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n", - "numforecasts": 113, + "numforecasts": 114, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", @@ -26209,7 +26347,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 405, + "numforecasts": 406, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -26347,7 +26485,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.\nWill Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following occur:\n--- \nMetaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question\n------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries \n--- \nThe payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) \n--- \nAn individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024\nIf Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -26470,7 +26608,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", - "numforecasts": 523, + "numforecasts": 525, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -26556,7 +26694,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 253, + "numforecasts": 254, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", @@ -27399,7 +27537,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)\nThis question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?\nThis question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.\n", - "numforecasts": 210, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-06T11:00:00Z", @@ -27537,7 +27675,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", @@ -27840,17 +27978,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1366, + "numforecasts": 1367, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -28189,7 +28327,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n", - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", @@ -28219,7 +28357,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 213, + "numforecasts": 214, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.csv b/data/metaforecasts.csv index 2ad821e..d1eb935 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.csv +++ b/data/metaforecasts.csv @@ -1234,20 +1234,10 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo "How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). ","Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more" -"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). -NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click ""Export"" for file download options). -","Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000, 95,000 or more" -"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). -","Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000, Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive, More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive, More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000, 900,000 or more" "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  ","Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000" -"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). -","Fewer than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000, Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000, Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive, More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000, Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive, More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000, 20,000 or more" "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. @@ -1349,7 +1339,7 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a19161b08131c13191b0e131514093a1d15151e100f1e1d171f140e5419151745090f18101f190e472b0f1f090e1315145f484a39161b08131c13191b0e131514). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e4878885968d828d8785908d8b8a97a4838b8b808e91808389818a90ca878b89db9791868e818790d9b5918197908d8b8ac1d6d4a78885968d828d8785908d8b8a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). ","Yes, No" "When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). @@ -1756,8 +1746,8 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol "Next Labour Party Leader: To Succeed Keir Starmer",,"Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner, David Miliband, Lisa Nandy, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Sadiq Khan, Laura Pidcock, Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, Richard Burgon, Dawn Butler, Clive Lewis, Dan Carden, Zarah Sultana, Emily Thornberry, Jonathan Ashworth, Cat Smith, Ian Lavery, Barry Gardiner, Stephen Kinnock, Hilary Benn, Stella Creasy, Janet Daby, Anneliese Dodds, Rachel Reeves, Rosie Duffield, Nia Griffith, Louise Haigh, Liz Kendall, Peter Kyle, David Lammy, Seema Malhotra, Alison McGovern, Jim McMahon, Chi Onwurah, Kate Osamor, Matthew Pennycook, Jess Phillips, Bridget Phillipson, Lucy Powell, Ellie Reeves, Jonathan Reynolds, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Wes Streeting, Tony Blair, Nadia Whittome, Angela Eagle, Helen Hayes, Vicky Foxcroft, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Preet Gill, Rosena Allin-Khan, Nick Thomas-Symonds, Jon Trickett, John McDonnell" "Next Labour Party Leader: When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Labour Party leader?",,"2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or later" "Next UK Prime Minister: Next PM (Acting PM or similar will not count)",,"Eddie Hughes, Rishi Sunak, Andy Burnham, Sadiq Khan, Grant Shapps, Laurence Fox, Graham Brady, Neil O'Brien, Theresa May, Nadhim Zahawi, Kwasi Kwarteng, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Jeremy Corbyn, Jeremy Hunt, Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage, Penny Mordaunt, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Rory Stewart, Sajid Javid, Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, James Cleverly, Dominic Raab, Tom Tugendhat, Johnny Mercer, Ruth Davidson, Liz Truss, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Priti Patel, Gavin Williamson, Geoffrey Cox, John McDonnell, Yvette Cooper, Lisa Nandy, Steve Baker, Tobia Ellwood, Steve Barclay, Damian Hinds, David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Kemi Badenoch, Andrea Jenkyns, Bim Afolami, Helen Whately, Kit Malthouse, Mark Harper, Esther McVey, Caroline Lucas, Piers Morgan, David Cameron, Hilary Benn, Liz Saville Roberts, Ed Davey, Laura Pidcock, David Miliband, Harriet Harman, Dominic Cummings, Ed Miiliband, Jess Phillips, Bridget Phillipson" -"West Yorkshire Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",,"Andrew Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Stewart Golton (LD), Tracy Brabin (Lab), Matthew Robinson (Cons)" -"Hartlepool By-election: Winner",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time), SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party" +"West Yorkshire Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",,"Andrew Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Stewart Golton (LD), Tracy Brabin (Lab), Matthew Robinson (Cons), Wajid Ali (Reform)" +"Hartlepool By-election: Winner",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time), SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind)" "Airdrie And Shotts By-election: To Win",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP" "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",,"Sadiq Khan (Lab), Shaun Bailey (Cons), Sian Berry (Green), David Kurten (Heritage), Farah London (Ind), Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem), Brian Rose (Ind), Mandu Reid (WEP), Peter Gammons (UKIP), Piers Corbyn, Nims Obunge (Ind), Count Binface, DrillMinister, Winston McKenzie, Kam Balayev (Renew), Laurence Fox (Reclaim), Max Fosh (Ind), Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)" "London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan R1 Vote Share",,"Under 35%, 35-40%, 40-45%, 45-50%, Over 50%" @@ -1812,14 +1802,19 @@ Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of c Given the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition: Large scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously. ","Yes, No" -"If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?","Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection. -If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? -If Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets. -If no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. ----Potential ""major media outlets"" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. ----The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. ----The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. +"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). +In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. +As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. +What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify. +In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" +"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. +Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? +This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. +","Yes, No" "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement), The police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order. In the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html). @@ -1829,10 +1824,6 @@ In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035? This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city. ","Yes, No" -"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. -Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? -This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. -","Yes, No" "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. @@ -1840,6 +1831,12 @@ Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively. If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. ","Yes, No" +"Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President. +Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? +This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01. +This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event. +","Yes, No" "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) In late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. @@ -1861,17 +1858,56 @@ In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, th --- Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. ","" -"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party. -In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote. -More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election). -Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? -Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously. +"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) +In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) +Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? +Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary +","Yes, No" +"Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?","The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). +Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021? +We define a ""4th wave"" as satisfying both of these conditions: +1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. +2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. +According to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as ""4th waves"": +---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater +---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater +---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater +The following examples would not: +---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k +---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k +---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k +Resolves (retroactively if needed) to ""yes"" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). +","Yes, No" +"Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?","[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun. +In August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs. +Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050? +The question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC. +","Yes, No" +"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). +Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. +","Yes, No" +"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. +To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. +This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? +For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy. ","Yes, No" "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. ","" +"Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176) +[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) +Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025? +In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. +A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. +A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question. +","Yes, No" +"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. +What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? +This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. +","" "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","Context ------- @@ -1887,43 +1923,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously. ","" -"Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176) -[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) -Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025? -In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. -A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. -A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question. -","Yes, No" -"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. -What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? -This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. -","" -"Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?","related questions on Metaculus: ---- -[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/) ---- -[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/) -[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good. -UBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/). -In Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) -At least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) -[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered. -Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021? -This question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals. -A qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. -","Yes, No" -"When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). -This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent. -The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server. -Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans? -When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match? ----The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 ""agent actions""* over any five second span. ----The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. ----Whether the player is ""top ten"" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. ----If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. -If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs. -*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) -","" "When will Blue Origin's ""New Glenn"" rocket complete its first successful test flight?","Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets. Named after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. New Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. @@ -1935,13 +1934,6 @@ And there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket i When will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight? This question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used. ","" -"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. -[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). -When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? -This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). -If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. -If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. -","" "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. @@ -1975,6 +1967,19 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well. This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise. ","Yes, No" +"When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?","Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as +collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) +where input n is a positive integer. +The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers. +When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively? +Take into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: ""Mathematics may not be ready for such problems"". +The question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal. +Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: +---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) +---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) +---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) +---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) +","" "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: @@ -1985,6 +1990,19 @@ If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December Related question ---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) ","" +"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. +The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). +What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? +This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. +Data +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. +","" +"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. +One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. +Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? +The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States. +","Yes, No" "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring): Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games. As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released. @@ -1993,11 +2011,12 @@ This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as "">2025-12-30"". In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins. ","" -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. +Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. +This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? +By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. +By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. +This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. ","" "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?","The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart. Johnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination. @@ -2013,6 +2032,22 @@ This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain. Patients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom ","" +"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. +When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? +This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve +A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): +---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative +---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) +---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. +---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +","" +"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. +In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence). +However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote). +When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? +This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale. +ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government. +","" "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020. [BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing. In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? @@ -2025,18 +2060,6 @@ Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC. The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. ","Yes, No" -"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. -In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence). -However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote). -When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? -This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale. -ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government. -","" -"Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?","With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask: -When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? -For these purposes we define ""practical"" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). -Resolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050. -","Yes, No" "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php). See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority, 1-- @@ -2065,28 +2088,17 @@ Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. ","Yes, No" -"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): -4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. -4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. -The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. -[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context. -When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. -If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. -","" +"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". +According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. +Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). +Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? +This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. +Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". +","Yes, No" "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired. The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024. ","" -"What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about ""per capita"" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP. -What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? ----IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). ----If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. -Related questions: ----[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) ----[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) ----[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* -","" "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background ========== @@ -2100,6 +2112,23 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. ","" +"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. +[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). +What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? +This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" +"What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about ""per capita"" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP. +What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? +---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). +---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. +Related questions: +---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) +---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) +---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* +","" "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). In previous years, the total amounts granted were: ---2020: $14,210,367 @@ -2112,35 +2141,12 @@ How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks fro This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed. ---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. ","" -"When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?","Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as -collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) -where input n is a positive integer. -The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers. -When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively? -Take into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: ""Mathematics may not be ready for such problems"". -The question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal. -Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: ----[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) ----[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) ----[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) ----[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) -","" -"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?","related question on Metaculus: ----[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) -More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/) -However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. -In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice. -Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung? -All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation. -For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. -","Yes, No" -"How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. -Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. -As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. -How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? -This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022. -The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021. -If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. +"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] +In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. +As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). +How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? +Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. +A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) ","" "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons), The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021. @@ -2150,34 +2156,14 @@ While [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-int Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. -The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). -What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? -This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. -Data -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. ","" -"When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. -Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/). -Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world. -When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? -Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously. -","" -"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), -In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] -A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] -The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. -The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7. -This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)? -If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. -Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/). -","" -"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. -One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. -Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? -The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States. -","Yes, No" "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -2187,6 +2173,49 @@ This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. ","Yes, No" +"When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?","Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states. +""[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)"" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal. +When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed? +For the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that: +--- +involves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length, +--- +at least 200m exterior diameter, and +--- +spins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface +... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. +The date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed. +A structure will be considered a ""cylinder"" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon). +The purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. +","" +"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. +The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). +What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list? +This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. +Data +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. +","" +"When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?","Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway. +From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus): +Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. +And: +Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015. +Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted. +Question: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? +Resolution details: +--- +""the last Metaculus question resolution"" is here defined as either: +------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. +------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. +--- +When this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000. +--- +If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question"" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous. +--- +If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)). +","" "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""?","As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right? Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""? A list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states). @@ -2198,16 +2227,6 @@ If a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resol In case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution. Friendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. ","" -"When will One Piece end?","It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.). -So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published? -This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). -This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place. -","" -"When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?","Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing. -Additionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal. -When will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics? -This question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author. -","" "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?","---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). Recently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation. @@ -2230,30 +2249,15 @@ The payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided b --- The question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms ""country"" ""person"" and ""income"" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. ","" -"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. -When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? -This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve -A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): ----Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ----Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ----The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ----The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. +What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? +This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. ","" -"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. -Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. -This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? -By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. -By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. -This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. +"When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?","A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. +Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it. +When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available? +This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution. ","" -"Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?","In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers. -NCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated: -""Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do."" -NCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard. -Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? -The question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case. -Positive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case. -","Yes, No" "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","Background ========== @@ -2272,6 +2276,24 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). ","" +"When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?","[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles. +Yamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class. +The question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross. +When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship? +This question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross. +This question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win. +","" +"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. +However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). +The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. +Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon? +What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021? +What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021? +This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). +in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. +Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). +","" "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?","Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s. If progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI. How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus? @@ -2315,28 +2337,36 @@ Here's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will 3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. 4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). ","" -"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. -There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: ----[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. ----Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" -While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) -The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). -Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? -This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. -Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. -","Yes, No" +"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]","This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one. +Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive. +AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems. +But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to ""High level machine intelligence"" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. +It would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community: +When will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated? +We will thus define ""an artificial general intelligence"" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans. +--- +Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, ""the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components."" +--- +Has general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html). +--- +High competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). +--- +Be able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the ""intermediate"" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task. +By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.) +Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public. +(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.) +","" "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000). This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025? Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025. If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question. Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels. ","" -"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. -The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high."" -On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""? -The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low."" -If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected. -","" +"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. +In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that. +Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024? +Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. +","Yes, No" "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -2388,11 +2418,15 @@ If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. ","" -"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. -In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. -Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? -This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). -","Yes, No" +"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. +However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). +The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. +Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon? +What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? +This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). +in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. +Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). +","" "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?","Background ========== @@ -2421,12 +2455,12 @@ When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds an If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2: When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. ","" -"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition. -According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen. -In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation. -This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF? -In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures. -","" +"Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (""Special Vehicles"") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA). +The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called ""passes""). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated. +The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. +This question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025? +Resolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated. +","Yes, No" "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?","[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia. In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement. In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): @@ -2435,18 +2469,29 @@ The Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www. Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01? This question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership). ","Yes, No" -"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". -According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. -Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). -Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? -This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. -Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". -","Yes, No" -"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound. -Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. -This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? -The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous. +"When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?","As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. +ML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)). +If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers. +If an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale. +When will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? +Resolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request ""build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech."" ","" +"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition. +According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen. +In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation. +This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF? +In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures. +","" +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +","" +"Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?","Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) ! +For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) . +Similar questions: +---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) +---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) +","Yes, No" "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?","Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? Index @@ -2466,12 +2511,6 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100. For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. ","" -"Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?","Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) ! -For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) . -Similar questions: ----[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) ----[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) -","Yes, No" "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States. Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog, This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria. @@ -2486,13 +2525,6 @@ The Princeton Review Dream Colleges The website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%. This question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030. ","" -"Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?","On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC): -Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick. -Let's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses. -The ""always open"" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season? -Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021? -Resolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location. -","Yes, No" "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?","[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. [Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. @@ -2500,14 +2532,12 @@ Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021? This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021. In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered. ","Yes, No" -"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market. -Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? -After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))? -(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.) -1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. -2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. -3--All prices are in USD. -4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. +"Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?","On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC): +Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick. +Let's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses. +The ""always open"" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season? +Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021? +Resolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location. ","Yes, No" "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease. This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. @@ -2548,28 +2578,6 @@ This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Producti The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. ","" -"When will PHP die?","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. -According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all): -PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. -While [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites. -Some popular websites using PHP: ----[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) ----[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) ----[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) ----[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) ----[360.cn](http://360.cn) ----[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) ----[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) ----[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) -Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages. -[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like: ----[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) ----[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) ----[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) ----[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) -This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath. -General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question. -","" "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. “Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics. @@ -2593,11 +2601,27 @@ When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share. As a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded. ","" -"What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?","In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars. -In recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. -[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030. -What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030? -Resolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously. +"When will PHP die?","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. +According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all): +PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. +While [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites. +Some popular websites using PHP: +---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) +---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) +---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) +---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) +---[360.cn](http://360.cn) +---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) +---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) +---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) +Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages. +[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like: +---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) +---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) +---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) +---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) +This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath. +General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question. ","" "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?","There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019. @@ -2610,15 +2634,11 @@ This question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corp This question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019. The restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.) ","" -"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","Markets and Markets reports that: -“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” -These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. -The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. -The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. -What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? -Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. -Data: -Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7% +"What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?","In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars. +In recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. +[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030. +What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030? +Resolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously. ","" "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions. The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"". @@ -2643,55 +2663,25 @@ I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?","Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard. -Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? -Resolution details: ---- -To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050. ---- -The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count. +"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). +Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? +The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. ","Yes, No" -"By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?","What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. -I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. -Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. -Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023. -","Yes, No" -"What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?","Background -========== - -In 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. -The onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. -However, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that: -“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.” -What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? -Predictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes. - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -The resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview). +"When will the first human mission to Venus take place?","[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's ""sister planet"" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects. +It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun. +Due to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions. +The first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers. +[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized. +As of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329) +When will the first human mission to Venus take place? +This question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres. +The humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. ","" -"Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?","Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. -The 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf) -Almost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. -The top three reasons for choosing this category are: ----36% There is ultimate meaning in life. ----26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. ----22% Mixture of religious beliefs. -The first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017. -Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? -This question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. -The 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022. -","Yes, No" "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States? This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. ","" -"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). -Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? -The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. -","Yes, No" "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?","Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented. Opposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively. However, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise. @@ -2699,19 +2689,9 @@ When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus? This question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the ""means of power"" (broadly, controls the military and police). If Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as "">"". ","" -"Will AI progress surprise us?","What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)? -Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to: -
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events -A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \( \frac{p}{1-p} \) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. -So, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? -Some examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. -(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • -","Yes, No" -"What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): -The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911. -Interesting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment) -What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01? -The question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval. +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?","One dose vaccines also count. +How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). ","" "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on. While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. @@ -2724,34 +2704,10 @@ Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 p ---2018: $617 ---2019: $592 ","" -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?","One dose vaccines also count. -How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -","" "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100). When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands? This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). ","" -"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: -Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro: -""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution."" -The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? ----Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. ----De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. -","Yes, No" -"When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. -According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: -According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. -Several American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel. -When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed -Resolution -This question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). -This question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040. -The type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. -The exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say: ----It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia ----The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island -","" "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?","Background ========== @@ -2779,19 +2735,37 @@ The training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in questi --- It is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous. ","" -"When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period). -In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. -Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)). -But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space? -For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded. -","" -"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. -[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). -What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? -This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: +Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro: +""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution."" +The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? +---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. +---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. +","Yes, No" +"What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?","Context +======= + +[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). +Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. +Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers +Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. +Related questions: +[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/) +[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/) +What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021? +Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: +[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0) +[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm) +[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3) +[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1) +[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm) +[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256) +[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales) + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. ","" "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?","Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars. When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan? @@ -2807,13 +2781,42 @@ The price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjuste If that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous. If a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous. ","" -"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +"Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?","[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States. +On October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted: +I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google. +Someone asked him to clarify his prediction: ""By market cap or evil?"", and Paul Graham responded: +By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is. +Paul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027. +Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027? +This question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31. +The valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" +"What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): +Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. +Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. +As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017. +Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release. +What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? +There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify. +If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. +If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. +","" +"What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?","Context +======= + +[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). +Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. +Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers +Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. +Related questions: +[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) +[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) +What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. ","" "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?","All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms. Political support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process. @@ -2827,40 +2830,21 @@ It resolves negative if he is not president at that time. Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date. In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. ","Yes, No" -"What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): -Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. -Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. -As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017. -Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release. -What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? -There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify. -If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. -If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. -","" -"Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?","[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States. -On October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted: -I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google. -Someone asked him to clarify his prediction: ""By market cap or evil?"", and Paul Graham responded: -By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is. -Paul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027. -Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027? -This question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31. -The valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. -","Yes, No" -"What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase. -The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface. -What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? -We will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit. -Related questions: ----[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) ----[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) ----[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) -","" "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"". ","" +"What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). +As of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed. +Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. +Data sources and more information: +---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) +---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) +---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) +What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31? +This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. +","" "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?","The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). Between 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). In Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0). @@ -2877,23 +2861,6 @@ If party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as b -- Only state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. ","" -"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] -In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. -As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). -How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? -Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. -A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) -","" -"What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). -As of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed. -Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. -Data sources and more information: ----[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) ----[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) ----[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) -What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31? -This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. -","" "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. @@ -2920,27 +2887,6 @@ Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews). The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001. ","Yes, No" -"When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. -The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). -When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS? -This question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. -Data -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -","" -"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) -In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) -Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? -Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary -","Yes, No" -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. -","" "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012. @@ -2951,6 +2897,14 @@ In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question c Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. ","Yes, No" +"When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. +The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). +When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS? +This question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. +Data +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. +","" "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? @@ -2961,23 +2915,6 @@ In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices rec What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season? The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement. ","" -"Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/): -A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. -He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1). -Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? ----Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. ----Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. ----Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. -ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively -","Yes, No" -"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. -International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. -Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/). -Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory. -What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? -For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. -(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.) -","" "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. @@ -2995,6 +2932,18 @@ Related Questions ---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication. ","Yes, No" +"How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years. +How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? +The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. +The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. +","" +"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. +There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy. +In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan). +In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)? +Resolution +For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll. +","" "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. [The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. @@ -3002,32 +2951,11 @@ This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK gen This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed. This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event. ","Yes, No" -"How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years. -How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? -The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. -The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. -","" -"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. -[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. -[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure. -As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study. -This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030. -","Yes, No" "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021. Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021? This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. ","Yes, No" -"When will the US-EU border reopen?","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020. -On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"". -When will the US-EU border reopen? -Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution. -Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports. -","" -"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. -What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? -The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. -","" "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?","One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1. Its predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. @@ -3037,6 +2965,21 @@ If MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively. It resolves positively otherwise. If a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai). ","Yes, No" +"When will the US-EU border reopen?","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020. +On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"". +When will the US-EU border reopen? +Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution. +Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports. +","" +"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? +Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? +The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party. +","Yes, No" +"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. +The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. +Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? +This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). +","Yes, No" "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: @@ -3054,32 +2997,37 @@ The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously. (See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.) ","" -"When will the VIX index climb above 50?","The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. -It represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%. -Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX). -The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count. -Companion question: ----[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) -","" -"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. -Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. -However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. -When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? -This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. -Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. -","" -"If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up. -Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years? -The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037. -This question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented. -If costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously. -","Yes, No" "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?","The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010. The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started. In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515). If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024? Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question. ","Yes, No" +"As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?","Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. +Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. +One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. +What will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022? +This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST. +[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria: +For these purposes we will thus define ""an artificial general intelligence"" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human. +--- +Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). +--- +Able to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [""Winogrande"" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+% +--- +Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.) +--- +Be able to learn the classic Atari game ""Montezuma's revenge"" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) +By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.) +","" +"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). +The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). +In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. +When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? +This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. +By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. +To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" +","" "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can: --- @@ -3120,61 +3068,20 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---71 for the calendar year 2018 ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ","" -"As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?","Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. -Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. -One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. -What will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022? -This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST. -[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria: -For these purposes we will thus define ""an artificial general intelligence"" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human. ---- -Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). ---- -Able to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [""Winogrande"" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+% ---- -Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.) ---- -Be able to learn the classic Atari game ""Montezuma's revenge"" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) -By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.) +"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): +4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. +4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. +The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. +[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context. +When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? +This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. +If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. ","" "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. ","" -"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. -Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? -The question will resolve: -1--Rishi Sunak -2--Michael Gove -3--Jeremy Hunt -4--Priti Patel -5--None of the above -The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. -If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -","" -"When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?","Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states. -""[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)"" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal. -When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed? -For the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that: ---- -involves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length, ---- -at least 200m exterior diameter, and ---- -spins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface -... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. -The date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed. -A structure will be considered a ""cylinder"" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon). -The purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. -","" -"Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. -The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. -[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024. -Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024? -This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. -See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/) -","Yes, No" "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/). The proposition in question will be taken as: The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province. @@ -3185,6 +3092,13 @@ If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97 Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. (Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.) ","Yes, No" +"Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. +The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. +[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024. +Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024? +This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. +See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/) +","Yes, No" "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?","During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337). In view of the above, this question asks: Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021? @@ -3194,34 +3108,22 @@ This question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of con This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. The 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). ","Yes, No" -"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. -The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). -What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list? -This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. -Data -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -","" "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15. If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?","Background -========== - -[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. -Data for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis. -What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021? - -Resolution -========== - -Predictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. -Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders). -","" +"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. +On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. +The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. +Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? +This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. +Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). +---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. +---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. +---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. +","Yes, No" "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?","In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023? Resolution @@ -3247,17 +3149,6 @@ More details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030? This question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01. ","Yes, No" -"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): -The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. -The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. -By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)): -A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass. -A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not. -Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045? -This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. -The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. -Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. -","Yes, No" "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?","As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive. But life could take many forms: ---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). @@ -3279,6 +3170,15 @@ Resolution details: * My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example. Note that in this sense Humans are only ""based"" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). ","Yes, No" +"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. +At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" "Will online poker die by 2030?","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train. In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/) @@ -3313,6 +3213,21 @@ This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at lea Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously. ","" +"When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?","A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013. +In essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. +The [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles. +In the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation. +This question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation? +For the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question. +A 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. +Additionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers. +Amusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count. +This question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination. +","" +"What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?","[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart). +What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025? +---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. +","" "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf): The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads. @@ -3350,45 +3265,10 @@ The authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The The model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test. Fine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way. ","" -"When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?","A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013. -In essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. -The [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles. -In the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation. -This question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation? -For the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question. -A 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. -Additionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers. -Amusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count. -This question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination. -","" -"What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?","[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart). -What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025? ----USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. -","" -"When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?","Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway. -From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus): -Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. -And: -Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015. -Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted. -Question: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? -Resolution details: ---- -""the last Metaculus question resolution"" is here defined as either: -------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. -------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. ---- -When this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000. ---- -If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question"" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous. ---- -If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)). -","" -"What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. -Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [""Tesla stock price is too high imo.""](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) -As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business) -This question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars? -This question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called ""Tesla"" (rather than ""Grohmann Automation"" or ""Tesla Energy"", say), should inherit the Tesla identity. +"When will the mammoth be revived?","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago. +When will the mammoth be revived? +This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. +The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. ","" "When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?","Background ========== @@ -3405,14 +3285,6 @@ A successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following cri Predictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. Resolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO. ","" -"What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?","[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/) -The JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. -The index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions. -Conceptually: -Exact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821). -The question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. -The initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020. -","" "Will China land the next person on the Moon?","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. Will China land the next person on the Moon? This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise. @@ -3440,22 +3312,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 ","" -"Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? -Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? -This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. -If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/). -Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). -This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. -","Yes, No" -"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587). -While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1). -When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? -The question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. -The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)). -Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. -The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less. -The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. -","" "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: 1-- @@ -3474,6 +3330,15 @@ Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mi For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080. ","Yes, No" +"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587). +While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1). +When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? +The question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. +The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)). +Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. +The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less. +The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. +","" "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?","Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors: [Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate): Seven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme @@ -3493,6 +3358,19 @@ Perhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns. What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? ---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) ","" +"When will GTA VI be released in the US?","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. +The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV). +When will GTA VI be released? +This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. +This date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order. +","" +"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. +Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. +This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025? +Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025. +A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold). +","Yes, No" "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? @@ -3500,11 +3378,26 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. ","" -"When will GTA VI be released in the US?","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. -The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV). -When will GTA VI be released? -This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. -This date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order. +"When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. +About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. +Dates of note +--- +For climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231). +--- +The coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. +--- +The newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). +--- +This year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812). +--- +The [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. +Resolution +The question resolves positively if either of the following: +--- +No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks +--- +Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period +In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously. ","" "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?","Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house). Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November. @@ -3522,12 +3415,21 @@ In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens? This question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter ""grabby aliens"", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology. ETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as "">10^16"". ","" -"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). -In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. -Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. -What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022? -This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022. -In case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. +"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. +What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? +The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. +You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). +Data +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. +","" +"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), +By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. +To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] +Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” +When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? +This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. ","" "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?","Background ========== @@ -3579,6 +3481,19 @@ Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elect Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023. ","Yes, No" +"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. +They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. +This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. +Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method. +[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete. +This question asks: +On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2? +This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. +If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price. +If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above. +If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. +*As judged by a metaculus admin. +","" "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?","The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence. According to its website: MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision. @@ -3610,10 +3525,6 @@ On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads? Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later. ","" -"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. -What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? -This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. -","" "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). This question asks: @@ -3628,18 +3539,15 @@ The question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations o The consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. ","Yes, No" -"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself. -However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions. -Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal. -Given the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible. -When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? -This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period. -For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060. -","" -"When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?","A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. -Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it. -When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available? -This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution. +"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). +In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. +As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. +What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14? +This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify. +In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ","" "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/). Joseph F. Huttner argued, @@ -3652,10 +3560,16 @@ My reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that th Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015? If the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. -What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? -This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). +"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. +Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. +What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? +The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. +Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: +A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic +B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. +C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. +I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales. +I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities. ","" "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as @@ -3665,23 +3579,13 @@ Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? ---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. ---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. ","Yes, No" -"When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. -When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? -This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. -'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others. -","" -"Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?","Related question on Metaculus: -[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/) -Democrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia). -But who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate? -Senate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm). -(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, ""All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip."" We don't know if he considered literally everything.) -Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? -This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31. -This question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party. -Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period. -Best source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful. -Alternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. +"Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022","[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021. +Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [""Frazzledrip""](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html). +Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so. +Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022 +This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022. +This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022. +This question resolves negatively otherwise. ","Yes, No" "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?","Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time. @@ -3716,63 +3620,12 @@ If the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median. If the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph. Otherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate. ","" -"When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?","[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles. -Yamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class. -The question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross. -When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship? -This question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross. -This question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win. -","" -"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. -However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). -The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. -Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon? -What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021? -What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021? -This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). -in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. -Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -","" -"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]","This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one. -Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive. -AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems. -But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to ""High level machine intelligence"" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. -It would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community: -When will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated? -We will thus define ""an artificial general intelligence"" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans. ---- -Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, ""the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components."" ---- -Has general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html). ---- -High competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). ---- -Be able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the ""intermediate"" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task. -By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.) -Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public. -(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.) -","" "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?","related question on Metaculus: ---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no. Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030? This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" -"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. -In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that. -Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024? -Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. -","Yes, No" -"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. -However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). -The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. -Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon? -What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? -This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). -in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. -Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -","" "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?","As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972. [The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? @@ -3831,27 +3684,24 @@ The complete system was based on DL Most of system was based on DL The question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond ""I don't know"". ","Yes, No" -"When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings. -One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) -For a precise question we'll ask: -When will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? -There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/). -When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? -Resolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.) -","" -"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","Context -======= - -Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. -You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth). -The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67. -What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. +"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. +This question asks: +What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/). +Predictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea. +It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc. +Resolution criteria: +With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date. +The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution. ","" +"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. +Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)). +Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? +This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050: +---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. +---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. +---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. +This question resolves negatively otherwise. +","Yes, No" "When will be the next ""Great Power"" war?","A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes The world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds. @@ -3865,21 +3715,6 @@ High quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the tw For the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute). The date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers? ","" -"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. -The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. -Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. -This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? -Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. -","Yes, No" -"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. -Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)). -Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? -This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050: ----There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. ----There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. ----There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. -This question resolves negatively otherwise. -","Yes, No" "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] @@ -3936,39 +3771,10 @@ Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies. In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021. ","Yes, No" -"Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (""Special Vehicles"") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA). -The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called ""passes""). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated. -The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. -This question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025? -Resolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated. -","Yes, No" "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?","[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024. Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? This question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025. ","Yes, No" -"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. -Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. -This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? -By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. -To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. -","Yes, No" -"When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?","As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. -ML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)). -If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers. -If an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale. -When will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? -Resolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request ""build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech."" -","" -"Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?","related questions on Metaculus: ----[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) -Beginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html). -In Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) -The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent) -[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists. -Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? -This question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. -As the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. -","Yes, No" "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. [This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. @@ -3980,6 +3786,11 @@ This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bi --- Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"". ","Yes, No" +"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). +When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? +This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. +If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. +","" "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?","[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) ""Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders."". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken. Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? This question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). @@ -3989,6 +3800,11 @@ Furthermore, one of the two conditions must be true: ---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. Hence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted. ","Yes, No" +"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates. +The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break. +When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? +The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released. +","" "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?","related questions on Metaculus: ---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) As of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986. @@ -3996,11 +3812,6 @@ Some activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01? This question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution. ","" -"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates. -The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break. -When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? -The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released. -","" "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading), Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading. Proponents say seasteads can ""provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship."" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations. @@ -4010,52 +3821,6 @@ The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Bui Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035? This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria. ","Yes, No" -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -","" -"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","Context -======= - -The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). -Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. -Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. -Other Related Questions: -[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/) -[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/) -What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. -","" -"What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. -[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. -The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. ---- -If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins. ---- -If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated. ---- -The first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count. ---- -Voters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded. ---- -Voters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count. -This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two. -In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%. -[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election. -What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election? -This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. -","" -"Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?","[The Suez Canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia. The canal offers watercraft a more direct route between the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans via the Mediterranean and Red seas, thus avoiding the South Atlantic and southern Indian oceans and reducing the journey distance from the Arabian Sea to London, for example, by approximately 8,900 kilometres (5,500 mi). It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez. Its length is 193.30 km (120.11 mi) including its northern and southern access-channels. In 2012, 17,225 vessels traversed the canal (an average of 47 per day). -At 07:40 Eastern European Time on 23 March 2021, the [Ever Given](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given), a Golden-class container ship, one of the largest in the world, was passing through the Suez Canal on its way to Rotterdam from Tanjung Pelepas when it ran aground, turned sideways and blocked the canal, causing the canal to be impassable, and significantly disrupting international shipping. -As of 24 March 2021, eight tugboats are working to re-float the vessel in collaboration with diggers removing sand from the side of the canal where the vessel is wedged. -When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared? -This question resolves as the time and date the Suez Canal becomes navigable by commercial shipping vessels, as reported by a major news organization (e.g. AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, etc.). -ETA (26 March): Ships with a beam of at least 20 meters must be able to pass the canal for this question to resolve positively. -","" "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants. There is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. Data sources and more information: @@ -4070,68 +3835,22 @@ Data sources and more information: How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April? This question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday). ","" -"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%. -This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%. -'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time. -'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default. -If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators. -","" -"When will the first human mission to Venus take place?","[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's ""sister planet"" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects. -It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun. -Due to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions. -The first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers. -[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized. -As of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329) -When will the first human mission to Venus take place? -This question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres. -The humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. -","" -"How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?","The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017. -How many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030? -This will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used. -The question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. -","" "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station). With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’ When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space? Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit. ","" -"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. -Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? -This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date: ----Donald Trump ----Melania Trump ----Donald Trump Jr. ----Ivanka Trump ----Eric Trump ----Tiffany Trump ----Barron Trump ----Jared Kushner -","Yes, No" -"What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?","Context -======= - -[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). -Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. -Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers -Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. -Related questions: -[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) -[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) -What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. -","" -"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. -Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. -The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? ----This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. ----It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. ----In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. +"Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?","There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/) +Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics): +2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th +Will they come in the Top 4 again? +Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics +This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021. +The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: +1--Number of Gold Medals +2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals +3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals ","Yes, No" "World Population in 2050?","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050. Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion. @@ -4150,19 +3869,6 @@ As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear inciden Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030? This question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. ","Yes, No" -"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). -With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). -In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) -How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year? -This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla. -Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.). -","" -"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. -On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."" -Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? -This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. -If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. -","Yes, No" "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords) Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes. [There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014). @@ -4173,30 +3879,6 @@ This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected. If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. ","" -"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. -There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy. -In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan). -In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)? -Resolution -For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll. -","" -"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). -The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). -In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. -When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? -This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. -By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. -To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" -","" -"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","Context - -Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. -This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? - -Resolution Criteria - -This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. -","Yes, No" "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?","Context ------- @@ -4213,31 +3895,16 @@ Resolution Criteria The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed. ","" -"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? -Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? -The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party. -","Yes, No" -"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. -The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. -Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? -This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). -","Yes, No" "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue? The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously. ","" -"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). -In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. -As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. -What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify. -In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" -"Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?","The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. -Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? -This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously. +"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","related question on Metaculus: +---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) +Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion. +Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030? +This claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO +If there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously. +Comparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. ","Yes, No" "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?","related questions on Metaculus: ---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) @@ -4265,45 +3932,6 @@ When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has bee ---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. ---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. ","" -"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. -In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). -What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? -This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). -Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. -","" -"Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing). -Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: -1-- -[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words. -2-- -[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles. -3-- -[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set. -4-- -[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. -Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? -The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022. -In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark: ---- -Penn Treebank: 13 ---- -WikiText-2: 7 ---- -WikiText-103: 18 ---- -1B Words: 5 -Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3. -The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. -Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. -","" -"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. -The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. -The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) -Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? -This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. -It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. -","Yes, No" "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?","SpaceX has released plans for an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars. In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030. @@ -4311,29 +3939,6 @@ This question sets a scaled-back goal: Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030. ","Yes, No" -"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. -On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. -The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. -Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? -This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. -Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). ----The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. ----If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. ----This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. -","Yes, No" -"When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. -When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)? -This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70. -","" -"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. -At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted. The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question. This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: @@ -4343,16 +3948,6 @@ This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group. The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar. ","Yes, No" -"Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. -This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone: -In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to. -But if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again. -[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival). -Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021? -If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met. -If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement. -Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian. -","Yes, No" "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: @@ -4360,25 +3955,6 @@ Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. [World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. ","" -"When will the mammoth be revived?","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago. -When will the mammoth be revived? -This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. -The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. -","" -"Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?","[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory. -MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics. -Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? -This question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true: -A. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic. -B. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves) -This question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is ""for"" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question. -","Yes, No" -"Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?","Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources? -Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, ""approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)"". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated. -Will the GWB be detected by 2075? -Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? -This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma. -","Yes, No" "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?","The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42. The [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows: To remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol. @@ -4414,17 +3990,6 @@ You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.o Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. [fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] ","" -"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. -The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. -Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. -This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025? -Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025. -A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold). -","Yes, No" -"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). -Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. -","Yes, No" "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures. JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including: --- @@ -4458,41 +4023,6 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. ","" -"When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. -About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. -Dates of note ---- -For climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231). ---- -The coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. ---- -The newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). ---- -This year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812). ---- -The [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. -Resolution -The question resolves positively if either of the following: ---- -No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks ---- -Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period -In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously. -","" -"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS) -There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies. -BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? -After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value. -","Yes, No" -"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life -longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. -Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? -An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. -For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. -This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)). -Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator. -If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously. -","Yes, No" "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/). According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability. Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))? @@ -4500,35 +4030,17 @@ This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countri If for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability. If the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive. ","Yes, No" -"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. -What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? -The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. -You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). -Data -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -","" -"Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021. -Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? -For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court. -","Yes, No" "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?","[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities. [https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time. How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022. ","" -"Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?","Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy. -The closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation. -Betelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it) -The rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos. -The observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae. -Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? ---- -This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050. ---- -This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met. +"Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/). +Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants). +Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time? +Will the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017? +Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. +Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required. ","Yes, No" "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?","[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs) @@ -4536,16 +4048,6 @@ This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United The question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom. Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question. ","" -"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), -By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. -To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] -Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” -When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? -This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. -","" -"When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered? -This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question. -","" "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"". In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world. @@ -4569,19 +4071,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). ","" -"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. -They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. -This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. -Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method. -[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete. -This question asks: -On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2? -This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. -If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price. -If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above. -If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -*As judged by a metaculus admin. -","" "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027","Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm). In the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en). Yet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. @@ -4597,35 +4086,6 @@ Stunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unco In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. In case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute. ","" -"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). -In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. -As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. -What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14? -This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify. -In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -","" -"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. -Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. -What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? -The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. -Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: -A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic -B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. -C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. -I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales. -I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities. -","" -"Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022","[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021. -Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [""Frazzledrip""](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html). -Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so. -Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022 -This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022. -This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022. -This question resolves negatively otherwise. -","Yes, No" "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?","[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries. What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? This question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly. @@ -4639,15 +4099,6 @@ If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroac This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. ","" -"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. -This question asks: -What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/). -Predictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea. -It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc. -Resolution criteria: -With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date. -The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution. -","" "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023? This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022. ","Yes, No" @@ -4661,24 +4112,15 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, a For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. ","" -"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. -It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. -Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? -Resolution details: ---- -Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. ---- -Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. ---- -Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. ---- -Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. ---- -In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). ---- -If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. -Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. -","Yes, No" +"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). +Data sources: +---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) +---[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) +---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) +What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? +This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. +In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. +","" "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms. Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa. @@ -4691,44 +4133,6 @@ The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a si ""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available. ","" -"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). -When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? -This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. -If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. -","" -"Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?","There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/) -Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics): -2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th -Will they come in the Top 4 again? -Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics -This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021. -The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: -1--Number of Gold Medals -2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals -3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals -","Yes, No" -"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","related question on Metaculus: ----[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) -Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion. -Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030? -This claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO -If there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously. -Comparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. -","Yes, No" -"Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","Background -========== - -[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. -With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. -According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. -Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? - -Resolution -========== - -This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. -Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples. -","Yes, No" "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): @@ -4747,13 +4151,6 @@ Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus- This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. ","Yes, No" -"Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/). -Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants). -Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time? -Will the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017? -Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. -Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required. -","Yes, No" "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? @@ -4764,15 +4161,6 @@ Data These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/): 2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD) ","" -"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). -Data sources: ----[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) ----[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) ----[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) -What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? -This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. -In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. -","" "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -4799,21 +4187,19 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ---181 for the calendar year 2020 ","" -"Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/). -A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), -Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. -You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy. -Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates). -See also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/). -Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? -For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions. -1-- -The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media. -2-- -The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation. -The Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report. -If the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. +"Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/): +A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. +He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1). +Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? +---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. +---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. +---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. +ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively +","Yes, No" +"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS) +There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies. +BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? +After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value. ","Yes, No" "How large will Monaco be in 2035?","[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires) With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world. @@ -4829,6 +4215,29 @@ Resolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Roy The question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase. Resolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor. ","" +"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-), +Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty. +From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/), +The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation. +In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin. +“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.” +The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. +From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety), +a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997. +You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf). +Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? +This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media: +--- +The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective). +--- +Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal. +Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. +","Yes, No" +"Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?","India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020. +In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1). +Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? +Resolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise. +","Yes, No" "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","Context ======= @@ -4855,144 +4264,6 @@ Resolution This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/). ","" -"What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/). -In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. -This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? -Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts. -","" -"The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe). -Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. -Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? -This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. -It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name. -","Yes, No" -"How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?","A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin. -We can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin. -How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? ---- -The [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs. ---- -To qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus). -","" -"Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer: -Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers. -Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? -This resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise. -","Yes, No" -"Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?","The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. -Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041? -New resolution criteria: -This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: ----Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. ----Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. -This question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual. -Resolution will be by credible media reports. -Old resolution criteria: -This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency. -","Yes, No" -"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. -This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). -The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. -Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. -What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? -Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously. -","" -"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-), -Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty. -From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/), -The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation. -In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin. -“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.” -The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. -From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety), -a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997. -You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf). -Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? -This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media: ---- -The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective). ---- -Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal. -Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. -","Yes, No" -"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. -This question will resolve positively if: ----someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and ----Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. -This question will resolve ambiguously if: ----Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. ----Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. -","Yes, No" -"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. -The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. -The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". -Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? -This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. -In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. -If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. -","Yes, No" -"Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?","India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020. -In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1). -Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? -Resolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise. -","Yes, No" -"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. -Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. -In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. -","Yes, No" -"Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump. -A question has been on all of our minds: ""when will things go back to normal?"" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but ""back to normal"" is very vague. -In Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): -Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent) -With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right. -Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what ""back to normal by end of year"" means, so we ask: -Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? -This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as ""typical"") at any point in 2021. These statistics are: ---- -Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445) ---- -Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621) ---- -Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers) -(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021) ---- -Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722) ---- -Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721) ---- -Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448) ---- -Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447) -","Yes, No" -"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","Context -======= - -The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. -The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. -Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). -Related questions: -[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/) -[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/) -What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. -","" -"How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?","In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the ""Three Nos"": ""no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it..."" -Since then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel. -This brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four. -60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel? -How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027? -The resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country). -In order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough. -The count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09. -If the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization. -The Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option. -Should Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. -","" "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016. That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): @@ -5003,38 +4274,19 @@ And there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing. Funk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.) ","Yes, No" -"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. -Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? -This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -","Yes, No" -"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. -However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: -When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? -Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -","" "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia). In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise. ","Yes, No" -"Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?","It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes. -Chile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. -The U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. -Australia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically. -The number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. -""Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether."" -Low prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers. -LUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/). -""The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040."" -In this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. -Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030? -This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. -This question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison. -","Yes, No" -"What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?","Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion. -What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024? -This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2. +"How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?","A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin. +We can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin. +How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? +--- +The [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs. +--- +To qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus). ","" "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?","Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can ""pass a Turing test"" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial. @@ -5042,14 +4294,11 @@ For example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accura By 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI? Related Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) ","Yes, No" -"Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?","Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. -A brief overview on her: -Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. -With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory. -She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. -Given the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government. -Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel? -","Yes, No" +"How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?","The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will ""attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window"". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars). +How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt? +The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds. +The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf). +","" "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?","Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions. Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption. Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020. @@ -5065,41 +4314,16 @@ Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffai If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria). Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. ","" -"What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5). -As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth. -Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? -Resolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). -","" -"How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?","The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will ""attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window"". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars). -How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt? -The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds. -The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf). -","" -"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. -While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. -The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: -Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions -When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? -This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. -If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. -Related question ----[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) -","" +"Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). +There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0). +Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? +Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. +Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. +","Yes, No" "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD. ","" -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -","" -"What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. -Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. -According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.). -What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? -Resolution -This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD. -","" "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? @@ -5113,6 +4337,11 @@ AND 2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). *In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. ","Yes, No" +"What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/). +In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. +This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? +Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts. +","" "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background ========== @@ -5127,13 +4356,23 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. In 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011. ","" -"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)] -[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. -The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019. -In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark. -When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more? -Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100. -Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +"Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?","The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. +Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041? +New resolution criteria: +This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: +---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. +---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. +This question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual. +Resolution will be by credible media reports. +Old resolution criteria: +This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency. +","Yes, No" +"When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?","[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP). +When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? +---Countries with 1M population size only. +---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. +---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). +---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. ","" "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita). The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179. @@ -5155,6 +4394,12 @@ On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to C Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.). If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source. ","" +"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party. +In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote. +More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election). +Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? +Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: @@ -5243,6 +4488,13 @@ Residents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, ar In case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans. Resolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100. ","Yes, No" +"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. +This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). +The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. +Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. +What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? +Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously. +","" "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?","Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/) The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign. Tensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides. @@ -5265,6 +4517,17 @@ Similar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880? Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway. ","" +"Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?","Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy. +The closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation. +Betelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it) +The rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos. +The observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae. +Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? +--- +This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050. +--- +This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met. +","Yes, No" "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party. Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold). Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? @@ -5293,17 +4556,6 @@ This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or re If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously. He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033. ","Yes, No" -"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: -The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. ---[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) -CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. -The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. -As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. -Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? -This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. -The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. -In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. -","Yes, No" "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. Who will win? @@ -5328,19 +4580,47 @@ For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges). This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first. ","Yes, No" -"What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?","Background -========== - -[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. -[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005. -What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021? - -Resolution -========== - -Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. -Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits). -","" +"Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?","Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. +The 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf) +Almost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. +The top three reasons for choosing this category are: +---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. +---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. +---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. +The first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017. +Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? +This question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. +The 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022. +","Yes, No" +"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. +Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. +In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. +","Yes, No" +"Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump. +A question has been on all of our minds: ""when will things go back to normal?"" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but ""back to normal"" is very vague. +In Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): +Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent) +With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right. +Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what ""back to normal by end of year"" means, so we ask: +Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? +This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as ""typical"") at any point in 2021. These statistics are: +--- +Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445) +--- +Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621) +--- +Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers) +(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021) +--- +Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722) +--- +Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721) +--- +Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448) +--- +Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447) +","Yes, No" "Increased off-world population in 2050?","At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. Up-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/) For the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. @@ -5376,6 +4656,22 @@ Related question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infection Will this goal be realized? The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached. ","Yes, No" +"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","Context +======= + +The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. +The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. +Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). +Related questions: +[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/) +[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/) +What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. +","" "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?","Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well). The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. Hu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. @@ -5404,6 +4700,15 @@ This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". ","" +"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life +longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. +Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? +An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. +For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. +This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)). +Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator. +If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?","The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (""Core CPI"") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023. The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? @@ -5442,15 +4747,6 @@ Melania Trump --- Barron Trump ","Yes, No" -"When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?","So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles. -When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be? -This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A ""flight"" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria: ----Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ----Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ----The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ----The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. -This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights. -","" "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. @@ -5507,6 +4803,25 @@ Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022? Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)? Resolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is ""in large part"" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. ","Yes, No" +"Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/): +on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference. +Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? +This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference. +","Yes, No" +"By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). +Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). +In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run. +By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? +This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. +By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states. +Methodology +The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: +When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. +If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2: +When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. +In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. +The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. +","" "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. The index is constructed as follows: --- @@ -5526,20 +4841,6 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. ","" -"By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). -Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). -In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run. -By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? -This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. -By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states. -Methodology -The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: -When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. -If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2: -When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. -In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. -The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -","" "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128) Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021. How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people? @@ -5551,6 +4852,11 @@ Other possible world: ---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/). ","" +"By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?","What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. +I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. +Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. +Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023. +","Yes, No" "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks: ""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?"" The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. @@ -5572,16 +4878,21 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---275 for the calendar year 2019 ---420 in the calendar year 2020 ","" -"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. -To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. -This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? -For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy. -","Yes, No" -"Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers. -Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? ----If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. ----This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. ----Platforms must be open to the public. +"How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?","In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the ""Three Nos"": ""no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it..."" +Since then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel. +This brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four. +60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel? +How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027? +The resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country). +In order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough. +The count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09. +If the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization. +The Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option. +Should Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. +","" +"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. +Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? +This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. ","Yes, No" "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index), The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high. @@ -5589,6 +4900,31 @@ Historical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.sli What will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s? This question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit. ","" +"Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers. +Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? +---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. +---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. +---Platforms must be open to the public. +","Yes, No" +"Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?","It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes. +Chile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. +The U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. +Australia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically. +The number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. +""Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether."" +Low prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers. +LUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/). +""The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040."" +In this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. +Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030? +This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. +This question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison. +","Yes, No" +"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. +However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: +When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? +Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. +","" "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?","Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that: The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants. While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution. @@ -5629,10 +4965,13 @@ The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"". If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. ","Yes, No" -"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? -Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? -The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. -An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) +"Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?","Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. +A brief overview on her: +Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. +With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory. +She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. +Given the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government. +Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel? ","Yes, No" "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. @@ -5716,6 +5055,24 @@ For example: ---for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously. ","" +"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?","Context +======= + +The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. +Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. +[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good. +Because of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices. +It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse. +Other Related Questions: +[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/) +[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/) +What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May. +","" "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?","[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications. Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020. How many emoji related court cases in 2021? @@ -5776,6 +5133,32 @@ In particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like sch Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? Resolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention. ","Yes, No" +"What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?","Background +========== + +[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy. +[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005. +What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021? + +Resolution +========== + +Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau. +Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits). +","" +"What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?","Background +========== + +[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. +Data for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis. +What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021? + +Resolution +========== + +Predictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. +Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders). +","" "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers. However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions: ---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). @@ -5848,12 +5231,6 @@ This question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The questio Changelog: 2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813). ","" -"Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President. -Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? -This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01. -This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event. -","Yes, No" "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?","In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass. It's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth. @@ -5877,6 +5254,11 @@ Resolution Criteria Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/) ","Yes, No" +"Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?","The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. +Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? +This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?","Context ======= @@ -5911,6 +5293,11 @@ Also note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all alr "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?","The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively. This question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does. ","Yes, No" +"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). +On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). +When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? +This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. +","" "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?","Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology. Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts? @@ -5923,11 +5310,6 @@ This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both: ---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). ---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). ","Yes, No" -"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). -On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). -When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? -This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. -","" "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?","In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall? How will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents? This question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score. @@ -5961,22 +5343,31 @@ This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outpu Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. *4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels. ","" -"What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","Context +"For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","Context ======= -[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). -Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. -Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers -Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. -Related questions: -[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) -[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) -What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021? +[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. +It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. +The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. +You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls) +Due to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives. +With [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates. +Similar Questions: +[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/) +[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/) +For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? +Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms: +[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0) +[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3) +[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls) +[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm) +[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227) +[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls) Resolution Criteria =================== -Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. +Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released. ","" "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?","For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the ""war on drugs"" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated. Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists. @@ -6016,6 +5407,22 @@ When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. ","" +"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market. +Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? +After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))? +(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.) +1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. +2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. +3--All prices are in USD. +4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. +","Yes, No" +"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. +Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. +The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? +---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. +---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. +---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr. Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD? @@ -6028,6 +5435,10 @@ What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. ","" +"What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?","Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion. +What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024? +This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2. +","" "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -6046,6 +5457,17 @@ If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars? Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics. ","" +"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: +The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. +--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) +CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. +The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. +As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. +Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? +This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. +The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. +In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. +","Yes, No" "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?","GPT stands for ""Generative Pre-Training"" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), The scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...] @@ -6056,6 +5478,11 @@ In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members In your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3? After 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as ""yes"". ","" +"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. +There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. +Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? +The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source. +","Yes, No" "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract), An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem. The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone. @@ -6073,16 +5500,15 @@ Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was pri A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted. Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. ","Yes, No" -"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. -There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. -Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? -The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source. -","Yes, No" -"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. -On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? -This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. -","Yes, No" +"When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?","So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles. +When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be? +This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A ""flight"" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria: +---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative +---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) +---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. +---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. +This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights. +","" "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. @@ -6104,6 +5530,24 @@ After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across th What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously. ","" +"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. +It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. +Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? +Resolution details: +--- +Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. +--- +Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. +--- +Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. +--- +Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. +--- +In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). +--- +If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. +Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. +","Yes, No" "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?","It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred. By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks. @@ -6140,6 +5584,17 @@ All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar% When will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19? This question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). ","" +"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. +Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. +This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? +Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. +","Yes, No" +"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question). +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. +On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? +This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. +","Yes, No" "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd). @@ -6192,6 +5647,30 @@ However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox? ","Yes, No" +"Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?","Related question on Metaculus: +[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/) +Democrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia). +But who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate? +Senate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm). +(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, ""All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip."" We don't know if he considered literally everything.) +Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? +This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31. +This question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party. +Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period. +Best source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful. +Alternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. +","Yes, No" +"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. +Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? +The question will resolve: +1--Rishi Sunak +2--Michael Gove +3--Jeremy Hunt +4--Priti Patel +5--None of the above +The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. +If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. +","" "When will Russia become a democracy?","Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index. When will Russia become a democracy? This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report. @@ -6206,6 +5685,12 @@ The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol If Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous. If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. ","" +"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. +On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."" +Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? +This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. +If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. +","Yes, No" "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days. U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline. @@ -6240,12 +5725,6 @@ Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referre Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.? After one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer ""Yes"". ","Yes, No" -"What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day. -Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. -What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 -This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. -This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for. -","" "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?","The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. Indefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution. President Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. @@ -6265,11 +5744,12 @@ Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100? This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds. This demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021. ","Yes, No" -"Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins. -In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens. -So, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? -Data for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself. -","Yes, No" +"What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day. +Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. +What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 +This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. +This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for. +","" "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?","Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. [Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click): @@ -6280,6 +5760,11 @@ The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies no Question will resolve ""No"" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality. Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for ""Yes"" or ""No"" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall. ","Yes, No" +"Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins. +In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens. +So, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? +Data for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself. +","Yes, No" "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). @@ -6322,6 +5807,11 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---127 for the calendar year 2018 ---275 for the calendar year 2019 ","" +"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? +Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? +The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. +An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) +","Yes, No" "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","Context ======= @@ -6348,6 +5838,11 @@ Resolution This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/). ","" +"Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?","According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)). +We don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD. +This question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred. +If any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts. +","Yes, No" "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) @@ -6359,15 +5854,13 @@ What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York ma This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. ","" -"How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. -Health-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. -While unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same. -How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. +"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself. +However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions. +Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal. +Given the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible. +When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? +This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period. +For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060. ","" "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?","Related questions on Metaculus: ---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) @@ -6386,6 +5879,48 @@ Positive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old ex Positive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans. If it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year. ","" +"How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. +Health-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. +While unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same. +How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. +","" +"What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?","Background +========== + +The [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. +“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.” +Consumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases. +Previous Questions: +[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/) +What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021? +Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources: +[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320) +[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence) +[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) +[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2) +[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0) +[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3) + +Resolution +========== + +Predictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. +The resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment). +","" +"Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?","Related questions on Metaculus: +---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) +---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) +---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) +Many people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining). +Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? +This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease. +This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period. +","Yes, No" "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -6394,13 +5929,14 @@ This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLO Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. ","" -"Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence. -Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training. -One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model. -This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? -This question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023. -Importantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice. -","Yes, No" +"If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?","Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection. +If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? +If Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets. +If no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. +---Potential ""major media outlets"" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. +---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. +---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. +","" "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?","As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" in the US as 34.7M. On what date will this number reach 100M? When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine? @@ -6413,6 +5949,24 @@ As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new pres What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021? Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#). ","" +"Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. +This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone: +In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to. +But if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again. +[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival). +Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021? +If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met. +If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement. +Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian. +","Yes, No" +"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. +This question will resolve positively if: +---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and +---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. +This question will resolve ambiguously if: +---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. +---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. +","Yes, No" "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?","Context ======= @@ -6469,6 +6023,12 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. ","Yes, No" +"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. +The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high."" +On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""? +The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low."" +If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected. +","" "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?","Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative). Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive). An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. @@ -6493,6 +6053,13 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. ","" +"Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? +Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? +This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. +If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/). +Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). +This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. +","Yes, No" "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? This question resolves: @@ -6500,12 +6067,16 @@ This question resolves: ---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. ---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. ","Yes, No" -"Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). -There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0). -Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? -Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. -Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. -","Yes, No" +"When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. +When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? +This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. +'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others. +","" +"What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. +What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? +This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). +","" "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years. @@ -6515,11 +6086,6 @@ Longevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 yea If no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. The date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy. ","Yes, No" -"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that -Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. -Will Hanson win the bet? -Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. -","Yes, No" "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?","Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second. What will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022? ","" @@ -6552,6 +6118,11 @@ What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US f We encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04). ","" +"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that +Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. +Will Hanson win the bet? +Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. +","Yes, No" "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background ========== @@ -6565,14 +6136,20 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US. ","" -"Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?","Related questions on Metaculus: ----[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) ----[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) ----[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) -Many people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining). -Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? -This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease. -This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period. +"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. +The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. +The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) +Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? +This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. +It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. +","Yes, No" +"Will AI progress surprise us?","What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)? +Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to: +
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events +A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \( \frac{p}{1-p} \) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. +So, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? +Some examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. +(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • ","Yes, No" "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?","Context ======= @@ -6621,11 +6198,6 @@ Alcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrk If Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. ","Yes, No" -"Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/): -on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference. -Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? -This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference. -","Yes, No" "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). This question asks: @@ -6652,6 +6224,13 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). ","" +"Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence. +Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training. +One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model. +This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? +This question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023. +Importantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice. +","Yes, No" "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?","Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), ""about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden"". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists. Some other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started. Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year? @@ -6689,6 +6268,11 @@ This prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. This question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution. ","Yes, No" +"Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?","Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837). +Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? +The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason. +The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia. +","Yes, No" "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023? @@ -6722,6 +6306,14 @@ The list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](http ---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) For reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020. ","Yes, No" +"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. +The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. +The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". +Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? +This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. +In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously. +If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes. The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden. @@ -6745,16 +6337,72 @@ Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 202 ---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). ---An ""official list is"" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. ","Yes, No" +"Will the United States House of Representatives vote to formally discipline a House Member?","Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/) +The United States House of Representatives (""House"") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so. +Tensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups. +Democrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members). +Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022? +The question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date. +The question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote). +The question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not. +[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources. +""House Member"" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date. +Resolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.). +Note: A vote to remove a Member following an ""Election Contest"" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. +","Yes, No" +"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","Context + +Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. +This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? + +Resolution Criteria + +This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. +","Yes, No" "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?","On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion. [/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen? If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as ""> 2025-12-31"". ","" +"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?","related question on Metaculus: +---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) +More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/) +However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. +In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice. +Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung? +All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation. +For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. +","Yes, No" +"Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?","[The Suez Canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia. The canal offers watercraft a more direct route between the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans via the Mediterranean and Red seas, thus avoiding the South Atlantic and southern Indian oceans and reducing the journey distance from the Arabian Sea to London, for example, by approximately 8,900 kilometres (5,500 mi). It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez. Its length is 193.30 km (120.11 mi) including its northern and southern access-channels. In 2012, 17,225 vessels traversed the canal (an average of 47 per day). +At 07:40 Eastern European Time on 23 March 2021, the [Ever Given](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given), a Golden-class container ship, one of the largest in the world, was passing through the Suez Canal on its way to Rotterdam from Tanjung Pelepas when it ran aground, turned sideways and blocked the canal, causing the canal to be impassable, and significantly disrupting international shipping. +As of 24 March 2021, eight tugboats are working to re-float the vessel in collaboration with diggers removing sand from the side of the canal where the vessel is wedged. +When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared? +This question resolves as the time and date the Suez Canal becomes navigable by commercial shipping vessels, as reported by a major news organization (e.g. AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, etc.). +ETA (26 March): Ships with a beam of at least 20 meters must be able to pass the canal for this question to resolve positively. +","" "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016. How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? Resolution This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. ","" +"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)] +[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019. +In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark. +When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more? +Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100. +Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +","" +"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. +There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: +---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. +---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" +While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.) +The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection). +Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? +This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. +Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. +","Yes, No" "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?","Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years. This brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk. Most dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). @@ -6765,6 +6413,23 @@ In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in Decembe The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%. In case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value. ","" +"What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","Context +======= + +[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). +Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. +Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers +Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. +Related questions: +[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) +[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) +What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. +","" "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast. Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders. The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois. @@ -6777,6 +6442,21 @@ This cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organizati --- At some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more. ","Yes, No" +"Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?","This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. +The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) +The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters: +--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. +--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. +--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. +--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). +--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. +--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. +--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. +In this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter. +Most estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer. +The lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number. +The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. +","" "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?","previous Metaculus questions: --- [Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) @@ -6787,6 +6467,30 @@ The conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bou Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100? This question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory. ","Yes, No" +"In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?","In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a ""[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)"". +As of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland. +France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive). +The Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/). +The Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. +Hungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently). +In Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements. +In January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic +[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia. +In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons. +In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? +This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union. +","Yes, No" +"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. +Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. +However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. +When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? +This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus. +Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. +","" +"Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?","[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding. +This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? +Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea. +","Yes, No" "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?","There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x). A recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&cid=F3C3887684911EE4&id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one. Summaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/). @@ -6797,6 +6501,10 @@ In the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use If an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question. This resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. ","Yes, No" +"How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?","Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question). +How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? +This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media. +","" "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered. Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning. This question asks: @@ -6830,6 +6538,32 @@ This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States C ---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. ---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. ","Yes, No" +"Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?","related questions on Metaculus: +--- +[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/) +--- +[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/) +[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good. +UBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/). +In Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) +At least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) +[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered. +Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021? +This question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals. +A qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. +","Yes, No" +"When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). +This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent. +The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server. +Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans? +When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match? +---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 ""agent actions""* over any five second span. +---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. +---Whether the player is ""top ten"" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. +---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. +If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs. +*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) +","" "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?","As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States. Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? @@ -6845,6 +6579,56 @@ On the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the la Thus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026? This question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in ""kinetic conflict"", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a ""cold war""). ","Yes, No" +"When will One Piece end?","It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.). +So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published? +This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). +This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place. +","" +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +","" +"Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?","With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask: +When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? +For these purposes we define ""practical"" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). +Resolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050. +","Yes, No" +"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound. +Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. +This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? +The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous. +","" +"Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?","Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard. +Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? +Resolution details: +--- +To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050. +--- +The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count. +","Yes, No" +"When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. +According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: +According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. +Several American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel. +When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed +Resolution +This question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). +This question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040. +The type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. +The exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say: +---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia +---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island +","" +"How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. +Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. +As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. +How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? +This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022. +The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021. +If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. +","" "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?","Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year. As a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. If consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. @@ -6852,12 +6636,40 @@ Data: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transport By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? Resolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously. ","" +"When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. +Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/). +Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world. +When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? +Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously. +","" +"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), +In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] +A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] +The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. +The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7. +This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)? +If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. +Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/). +","" "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. ","" +"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. +International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. +Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/). +Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory. +What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? +For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. +(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.) +","" +"When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?","Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing. +Additionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal. +When will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics? +This question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author. +","" "When will there be at least one billion Americans?","[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. One Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities. As of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/) @@ -6869,6 +6681,41 @@ If no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equiv This question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc. [Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. ","" +"Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?","In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers. +NCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated: +""Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do."" +NCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard. +Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? +The question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case. +Positive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case. +","Yes, No" +"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. +In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. +Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? +This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). +","Yes, No" +"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. +Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. +This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? +By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. +To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question. +","Yes, No" +"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","Context +======= + +The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). +Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. +Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. +Other Related Questions: +[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/) +[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/) +What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. +","" "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?","With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving ""herd immunity"" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.) It is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains. In this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). @@ -6891,6 +6738,132 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. ","" +"What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. +[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. +The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. +--- +If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins. +--- +If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated. +--- +The first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count. +--- +Voters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded. +--- +Voters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count. +This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two. +In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%. +[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election. +What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election? +This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. +","" +"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","Markets and Markets reports that: +“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” +These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. +The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. +The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. +What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? +Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. +Data: +Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7% +","" +"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%. +This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%. +'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time. +'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default. +If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators. +","" +"What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?","Background +========== + +In 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. +The onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. +However, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that: +“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.” +What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? +Predictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes. + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +The resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview). +","" +"How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?","The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017. +How many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030? +This will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used. +The question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. +","" +"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. +Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? +This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date: +---Donald Trump +---Melania Trump +---Donald Trump Jr. +---Ivanka Trump +---Eric Trump +---Tiffany Trump +---Barron Trump +---Jared Kushner +","Yes, No" +"What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): +The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911. +Interesting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment) +What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01? +The question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval. +","" +"When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period). +In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. +Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)). +But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space? +For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded. +","" +"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +","" +"What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase. +The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface. +What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? +We will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit. +Related questions: +---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) +---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) +---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) +","" +"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). +With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). +In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) +How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year? +This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla. +Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.). +","" +"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. +[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. +[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure. +As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study. +This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030. +","Yes, No" +"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. +What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? +The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. +","" +"When will the VIX index climb above 50?","The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. +It represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%. +Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX). +The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count. +Companion question: +---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) +","" +"If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up. +Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years? +The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037. +This question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented. +If costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too. If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen? 435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership. @@ -6899,6 +6872,24 @@ Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolve .* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it. .^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. ","Yes, No" +"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. +In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). +What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? +This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). +Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. +","" +"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. +[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). +When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? +This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). +If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. +If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. +","" +"When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. +When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)? +This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70. +","" "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?","The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles). In Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and ""at the jockey's discretion"" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html). A jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for ""overuse of the whip"" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html). @@ -6912,6 +6903,17 @@ This question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one If no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. Changes to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the ""Melbourne Cup"", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. ","Yes, No" +"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): +The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. +The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. +By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)): +A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass. +A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not. +Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045? +This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. +The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. +Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. +","Yes, No" "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?","Background ========== @@ -6936,11 +6938,121 @@ Examples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive r The specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution. If the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as ""> Oct 2, 2035"". ","" +"Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?","[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory. +MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics. +Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? +This question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true: +A. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic. +B. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves) +This question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is ""for"" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question. +","Yes, No" +"What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. +Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [""Tesla stock price is too high imo.""](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) +As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business) +This question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars? +This question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called ""Tesla"" (rather than ""Grohmann Automation"" or ""Tesla Energy"", say), should inherit the Tesla identity. +","" +"What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?","[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/) +The JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. +The index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions. +Conceptually: +Exact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821). +The question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. +The initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020. +","" +"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). +In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. +Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. +What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022? +This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022. +In case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. +","" +"Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021. +Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? +For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court. +","Yes, No" +"When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings. +One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) +For a precise question we'll ask: +When will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? +There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/). +When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? +Resolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.) +","" "Kessler syndrome by 2050?","The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites. We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown. It is asked: By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? ","Yes, No" +"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","Context +======= + +Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. +You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth). +The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67. +What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. +","" +"Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?","related questions on Metaculus: +---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) +Beginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html). +In Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) +The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent) +[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists. +Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? +This question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. +As the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. +","Yes, No" +"Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing). +Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: +1-- +[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words. +2-- +[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles. +3-- +[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set. +4-- +[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. +Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? +The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022. +In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark: +--- +Penn Treebank: 13 +--- +WikiText-2: 7 +--- +WikiText-103: 18 +--- +1B Words: 5 +Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3. +The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. +Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. +","" +"Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?","Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources? +Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, ""approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)"". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated. +Will the GWB be detected by 2075? +Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? +This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma. +","Yes, No" +"Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","Background +========== + +[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. +With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. +According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. +Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? + +Resolution +========== + +This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. +Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples. +","Yes, No" "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal). As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations. @@ -6948,10 +7060,66 @@ Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) ","Yes, No" +"When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered? +This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question. +","" +"Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/). +A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), +Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. +You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy. +Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates). +See also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/). +Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? +For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions. +1-- +The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media. +2-- +The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation. +The Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report. +If the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. +By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. +","Yes, No" "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. ","" +"The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe). +Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. +Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? +This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. +It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name. +","Yes, No" +"What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5). +As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth. +Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? +Resolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). +","" +"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. +While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. +The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: +Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions +When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? +This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. +If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. +Related question +---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) +","" +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +","" +"What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. +Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. +According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.). +What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? +Resolution +This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD. +","" +"Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer: +Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers. +Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? +This resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise. +","Yes, No" "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?","Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date. In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine. [Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit. @@ -8292,12 +8460,6 @@ This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia artic This question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not have to be one manufactured by [Neuralink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink), and it does not need to be available to any member of the general public or approved by regulatory agencies. The question resolves as >2040 if Elon Musk is still alive on the 1st of January, 2040, and Elon Musk did not have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain before this date. The question resolves ambiguous if Elon Musk does not have a device implanted and passes away before the end of the calender year 2040. ","" -"How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?","Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales. -Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. -EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19. -How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? -Data will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US. -","" "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity). [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. @@ -8310,6 +8472,12 @@ This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is publi While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. ","" +"How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?","Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales. +Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. +EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19. +How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? +Data will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US. +","" "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). @@ -8922,14 +9090,6 @@ For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at le Moreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/). Related question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) ","Yes, No" -"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States. -As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html) -In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection. -On October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H) -Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021? -This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing. -If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. -","Yes, No" "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?","[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with ""Yes"" or ""No"", was ""Should Scotland be an independent country?"" The ""No"" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. Since 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question ""Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"" with ""Leave,"" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with ""Remain."" The ""Leave"" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history. @@ -8942,6 +9102,14 @@ In the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of In the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results. In the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously. ","Yes, No" +"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States. +As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html) +In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection. +On October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H) +Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021? +This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing. +If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. +","Yes, No" "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. @@ -9146,6 +9314,10 @@ Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Resolution For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. ","Yes, No" +"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. +Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? +This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. +","Yes, No" "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?","Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity. But how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises. We can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online. @@ -9166,10 +9338,6 @@ It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will Can we get there before the 2030s? Resolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise. ","Yes, No" -"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. -Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? -This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. -","Yes, No" "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?","On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents. When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries. @@ -9662,14 +9830,6 @@ As of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [t By the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? For positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.) ","Yes, No" -"When will the first cloned human be born?","In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago. -The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as ""somatic cell nuclear transfer."" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough: -[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action. -They've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle... -(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: ""given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day."") -On the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. -When do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal. -","" "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?","Context ======= @@ -9688,6 +9848,14 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. ","" +"When will the first cloned human be born?","In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago. +The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as ""somatic cell nuclear transfer."" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough: +[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action. +They've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle... +(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: ""given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day."") +On the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. +When do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal. +","" "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?","[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking. Yet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world? It is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time? @@ -9922,10 +10090,6 @@ If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that g This question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31. Successful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators. ","Yes, No" -"Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?","[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding. -This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? -Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea. -","Yes, No" "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?","Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world. The Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU). This question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010? @@ -10251,19 +10415,6 @@ When will The Boring Company dig a tunnel at a rate of 140 meters per day? ---This must be accomplished by one TBM, not e.g. 10 TBMs all tunneling at 14 m/day. ---If neither of the first two conditions is satisfied by the end date, this question resolves as the upper bound. ","" -"In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?","In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a ""[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)"". -As of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland. -France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive). -The Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/). -The Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. -Hungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently). -In Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements. -In January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic -[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia. -In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons. -In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? -This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union. -","Yes, No" "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?","The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. An amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. Article V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment. @@ -10556,21 +10707,6 @@ For the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files public "When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?","In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior. This question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/). ","" -"Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?","This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. -The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) -The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters: ---- log-uniform from 1 to 100. ---- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. ---- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. ---- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). ---- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. ---- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. ---- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. -In this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter. -Most estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer. -The lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number. -The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. -","" "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?","The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_(tennis)) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September. [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php). Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title? @@ -11685,6 +11821,12 @@ Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ","Yes, No" +"When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?","Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of ""CFTR Modulators"" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. +This was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis)) +Because of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks: +When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)? +By 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS. +","" "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?","For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. This finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding ""dogma"" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. In some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being ""written to the cortex"" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role. @@ -11700,12 +11842,6 @@ NG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it Assuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1. Resolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define ""definitive"" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive. ","Yes, No" -"When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?","Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of ""CFTR Modulators"" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. -This was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis)) -Because of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks: -When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)? -By 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS. -","" "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?","As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon. Currently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb). On January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? @@ -12268,6 +12404,17 @@ This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. ","Yes, No" +"In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?","Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each: +1--global poverty: 39% +2--cause prioritization: 24% +3--meta: 23% +4--animal welfare: 8% +5--long term future: 6% +In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty? +Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously. +The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey. +If global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously. +","" "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?","A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. Another variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases: @@ -12285,17 +12432,6 @@ Only evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for --- Meta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). ","Yes, No" -"In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?","Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each: -1--global poverty: 39% -2--cause prioritization: 24% -3--meta: 23% -4--animal welfare: 8% -5--long term future: 6% -In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty? -Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously. -The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey. -If global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously. -","" "When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?","Context ======= @@ -12381,14 +12517,6 @@ For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fissio The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution. See our previous question [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/) ","Yes, No" -"By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years","In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years. -This question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:* -By January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions). -The prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines). -Metaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied. --- -*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur). -","Yes, No" "How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?","Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths). These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation. Overall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year. While deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution); the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years. @@ -12402,6 +12530,14 @@ This question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture ca As reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? Linear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used. ","" +"By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years","In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years. +This question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:* +By January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions). +The prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines). +Metaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied. +-- +*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur). +","Yes, No" "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?","The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios). Over the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions. How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035? @@ -12716,13 +12852,6 @@ This question resolves positively if both Uber and Lyft are operating in Califor For the sake of this question, ""operating in California"" is taken to mean that, in at least one city, general consumers can receive Uber and Lyft rides. Determination is made via credible media reports. ","Yes, No" -"When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?","[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP). -When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? ----Countries with 1M population size only. ----Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. ----Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). ----If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. -","" "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?","The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth). However, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells). Some futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids. @@ -12839,14 +12968,6 @@ Related questions: ---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) [ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc. ","" -"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. -However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). -The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. -Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon? -What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01? -This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted. -As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%. -","" "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?","In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football. The decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge. In the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat. @@ -12855,6 +12976,14 @@ Will Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the Since there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively. A positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner). ","Yes, No" +"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. +However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). +The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. +Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon? +What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01? +This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted. +As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%. +","" "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?","In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [""luminous red nova""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year. Greg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4) Given that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me. @@ -13881,10 +14010,6 @@ Resolution details: ---Only humans in the observable universe count. ---""Humans"" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. ","" -"How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?","Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question). -How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? -This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media. -","" "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?","For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. In the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil. The anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the ""low fat is healthy"" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm). @@ -14234,9 +14359,6 @@ The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.] This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025? Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution. ","Yes, No" -"Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?","Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born? -If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously. -","" "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?","Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a ""phantom genre."" The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying. Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? @@ -14249,6 +14371,9 @@ El público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el r La respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030. (Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español). ","Yes, No" +"Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?","Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born? +If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously. +","" "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?","Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks. It is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.). The global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)]. @@ -14285,11 +14410,6 @@ The question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also: [How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027/) ","" -"Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?","Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837). -Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? -The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason. -The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia. -","Yes, No" "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?","A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) There are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. Some identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. @@ -14332,11 +14452,6 @@ For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first a Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group. (Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.) ","Yes, No" -"Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?","According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)). -We don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD. -This question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred. -If any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts. -","Yes, No" "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?","This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. @@ -16058,45 +16173,25 @@ As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$. What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$? Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD). ","" -"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). - - - - - -","Yes, No" -"Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?","This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”). -","Yes, No" -"How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021?","This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. - -At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. - -Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. - -Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. - -In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","Less than 70, 70-80, 81-90, 91-100, 101-110, More than 110" -"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" -"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","Yes, No" "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Texas, Florida, California" "Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and ""No"" otherwise. This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" -"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). - +"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" -"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","" +"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" +"Will the Ever Given be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30?","This is a market on whether the Ever Given container ship (IMO: 9811000, MMSI 353136000) will be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. For the purpose of this market, dislodged from the Suez Canal will mean that the Ever Given has a latitude higher than 30.03000 N (i.e. be at least half a mile above where it got stuck) or lower than 30.01000 N degrees (i.e. be at least half a mile below where it got stuck), by the resolution date, March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this for this market will be the Ever Green’s latitude and longitude coordinates, as tracked by Vessel Finder and displayed in their “Position & Voyage Data” table (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000).","Yes, No" +"Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?","This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. . ","Yes, No" -"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. - -If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" +"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","Yes, No" "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","Yes, No" +"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. + +If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" @@ -16107,12 +16202,15 @@ This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the t ","Yes, No" "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No" +"What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?","This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","$80M or Less, $81-105M, $106-120M, $121-135M, $136M or More" "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?","This is a market on whether the American ""observed mask usage"" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","Yes, No" "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. ","Yes, No" -"Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No" "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?","This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.","Yes, No" +"Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?","This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","Yes, No" "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16185,7 +16283,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" +","Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16251,7 +16349,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) -","Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Olaf Scholz, Angela Merkel, Jens Spahn, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Ralph Brinkhaus" +","Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus" "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16268,10 +16366,10 @@ In response to trader inquiry: The term ""as of"" refers to the time and date at ","Yes, No" "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" +","Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Larry Hogan, Rick Scott" "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton" +","Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton" "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. @@ -16345,7 +16443,7 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Lenín Moreno, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce" +","Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce" "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16407,7 +16505,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Juan Arteaga, Rebecca Slaughter, Einer Elhauge, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Douglas Melamed" +","Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16425,7 +16523,7 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Jair Bolsonaro, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Cyril Ramaphosa, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" +","Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16459,7 +16557,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Manageme A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Sarah Bianchi, Martha Coven, Gene Sperling, Jared Bernstein, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, Heather Boushey, John Jones" +","Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Sarah Bianchi, Martha Coven, Heather Boushey, Jared Bernstein, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Gene Sperling, Neera Tanden, John Jones" "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16488,11 +16586,11 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Mark Rutte, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Sánchez, Viktor Orbán, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron" +","Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Mark Rutte, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Sánchez, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Verónika Mendoza, Keiko Fujimori, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" +","Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Keiko Fujimori, Verónika Mendoza, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. @@ -16507,7 +16605,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) -","Nicholas Burns, Dan Kritenbrink, David Shambaugh, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill, Charlene Barshefsky" +","Nicholas Burns, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill, Charlene Barshefsky, David Shambaugh, Dan Kritenbrink" "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -16526,7 +16624,7 @@ Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market: * Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and * ""Beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded -","New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, South Carolina" +","New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina" "Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) @@ -16586,7 +16684,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" +","Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Kirsten Gillibrand, Alessandra Biaggi, Andrew Yang, Jumaane Williams, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) @@ -16639,7 +16737,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Jim Carlin, Matthew Whitaker, Ashley Hinson" +","Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Matthew Whitaker, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson" "How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources). For purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. @@ -16660,7 +16758,7 @@ End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) "Who will be the Democratic nominee in the NM-01 special election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Melanie Stansbury, Antoinette Lopez, Georgene Louis, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández" +","Georgene Louis, Melanie Stansbury, Antoinette Lopez, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández" "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) @@ -16668,7 +16766,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. -","Brian Kemp, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker" +","Brian Kemp, Doug Collins, Vernon Jones, Herschel Walker" "What will be the margin in the LA-02 House special election runoff?","The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for both candidates officially reported, in the runoff of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. Percentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json index fd98e44..c28f8b7 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.json +++ b/data/metaforecasts.json @@ -7,32 +7,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.5%", - "probability": 0.1035, + "probability": 0.1117, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%", - "probability": 0.1857, + "probability": 0.2214, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2843, + "probability": 0.3429, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2084, + "probability": 0.1877, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 12%", - "probability": 0.2181, + "probability": 0.1363, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "45", - "numforecasters": "37", + "numforecasts": "56", + "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.5%, More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%, Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive, Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive, More than 12%" }, @@ -88,17 +88,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "11", - "numforecasters": "10", + "numforecasts": "12", + "numforecasters": "11", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -110,32 +110,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 7,500", - "probability": 0.0483, + "probability": 0.0405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.135, + "probability": 0.12300000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", - "probability": 0.2728, + "probability": 0.2775, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", - "probability": 0.3044, + "probability": 0.3145, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 13,500", - "probability": 0.2394, + "probability": 0.2445, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "29", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "32", + "numforecasters": "28", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive, More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500, More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500, More than 13,500" }, @@ -258,32 +258,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.0481, + "probability": 0.048799999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.10640000000000001, + "probability": 0.1074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.2288, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.3295, + "probability": 0.32789999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2871, + "probability": 0.28600000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "63", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "64", + "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion" }, @@ -295,17 +295,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "112", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "114", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -326,7 +326,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "162", + "numforecasts": "163", "numforecasters": "130", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -418,12 +418,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3181, + "probability": 0.31679999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.2977, + "probability": 0.2991, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -437,7 +437,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasts": "127", "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than -0.25, Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive, More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25, More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5, More than 0.5" @@ -450,7 +450,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.0525, + "probability": 0.052300000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -460,21 +460,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", - "probability": 0.35979999999999995, + "probability": 0.359, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", - "probability": 0.2379, + "probability": 0.239, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 million", - "probability": 0.1466, + "probability": 0.1464, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "101", + "numforecasts": "102", "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive, More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million, More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million, More than $650 million" @@ -487,17 +487,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0496, + "probability": 0.0495, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3077, + "probability": 0.3074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3317, + "probability": 0.33240000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -507,11 +507,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.12119999999999999, + "probability": 0.1208, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "124", + "numforecasts": "125", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million" @@ -635,16 +635,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "128", + "numforecasts": "130", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -657,21 +657,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Zero", - "probability": 0.40630000000000005, + "probability": 0.40880000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "One", - "probability": 0.33899999999999997, + "probability": 0.3373, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Two or more", - "probability": 0.2547, + "probability": 0.2539, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "103", + "numforecasts": "104", "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two or more" @@ -743,27 +743,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0356, + "probability": 0.0352, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.10220000000000001, + "probability": 0.1042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2347, + "probability": 0.2343, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6275, + "probability": 0.6263000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "211", - "numforecasters": "129", + "numforecasts": "213", + "numforecasters": "131", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021" }, @@ -812,12 +812,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 15%", - "probability": 0.0742, + "probability": 0.0746, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18780000000000002, + "probability": 0.1888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -827,16 +827,16 @@ }, { "name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%", - "probability": 0.2742, + "probability": 0.2735, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 21%", - "probability": 0.1426, + "probability": 0.1419, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "135", + "numforecasts": "136", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 15%, Between 15% and 17%, inclusive, More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%, More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%, More than 21%" @@ -858,8 +858,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "166", - "numforecasters": "127", + "numforecasts": "168", + "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -908,32 +908,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 675", - "probability": 0.5716, + "probability": 0.5722, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", - "probability": 0.22260000000000002, + "probability": 0.2249, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", - "probability": 0.11019999999999999, + "probability": 0.1091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", - "probability": 0.061900000000000004, + "probability": 0.060700000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 900", - "probability": 0.0337, + "probability": 0.0331, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", - "numforecasters": "78", + "numforecasts": "139", + "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 675, Between 675 and 750, inclusive, More than 750 but less than or equal to 825, More than 825 but less than or equal to 900, More than 900" }, @@ -17234,17 +17234,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -17314,12 +17314,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17354,22 +17354,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.6 billion", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -17423,17 +17423,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17458,12 +17458,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17562,12 +17562,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17737,12 +17737,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17762,17 +17762,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "0", - "numforecasters": "0", + "numforecasts": "27", + "numforecasters": "27", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17784,17 +17784,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1", - "numforecasters": "1", + "numforecasts": "26", + "numforecasters": "22", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -17811,17 +17811,17 @@ }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17830,8 +17830,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", - "numforecasters": "60", + "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasters": "62", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Andrew Yang, Someone else" }, @@ -17853,17 +17853,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$180 billion or more", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "28", - "numforecasters": "24", + "numforecasts": "29", + "numforecasters": "25", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more" }, @@ -17889,8 +17889,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "55", - "numforecasters": "50", + "numforecasts": "59", + "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" }, @@ -17907,17 +17907,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17926,8 +17926,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "46", - "numforecasters": "33", + "numforecasts": "48", + "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0" }, @@ -17944,17 +17944,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -17963,8 +17963,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "96", - "numforecasters": "67", + "numforecasts": "99", + "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%" }, @@ -17986,17 +17986,17 @@ }, { "name": "Mank", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Minari", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18020,8 +18020,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "79", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome" }, @@ -18038,22 +18038,22 @@ }, { "name": "Mank (David Fincher)", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18062,8 +18062,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "52", - "numforecasters": "37", + "numforecasts": "55", + "numforecasters": "39", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg), Mank (David Fincher), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), A tie or other outcome" }, @@ -18075,17 +18075,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "103", - "numforecasters": "70", + "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18107,22 +18107,22 @@ }, { "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19.0 million", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "181", - "numforecasters": "111", + "numforecasts": "198", + "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million" }, @@ -18134,17 +18134,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18154,17 +18154,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "93", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "96", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021" }, @@ -18176,17 +18176,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "95", - "numforecasters": "70", + "numforecasts": "99", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18198,7 +18198,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18208,17 +18208,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18227,8 +18227,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "64", - "numforecasters": "41", + "numforecasts": "68", + "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021" }, @@ -18240,7 +18240,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18255,12 +18255,12 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "164", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "167", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -18281,7 +18281,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "59", + "numforecasts": "61", "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18323,135 +18323,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "173", - "numforecasters": "62", + "numforecasts": "178", + "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more" }, - { - "title": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click \"Export\" for file download options).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 15,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.06, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "95,000 or more", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "153", - "numforecasters": "47", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000, 95,000 or more" - }, - { - "title": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 100,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "900,000 or more", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "462", - "numforecasters": "105", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000, Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive, More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive, More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000, 900,000 or more" - }, { "title": "How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc", @@ -18490,12 +18366,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18514,73 +18390,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "588", - "numforecasters": "154", + "numforecasts": "634", + "numforecasters": "157", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000" }, - { - "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Fewer than 4,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "20,000 or more", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "425", - "numforecasters": "100", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000, Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000, Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive, More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000, Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive, More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000, 20,000 or more" - }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019", @@ -18598,7 +18412,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "141", + "numforecasts": "142", "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18611,12 +18425,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18625,7 +18439,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "76", + "numforecasts": "78", "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more" @@ -18638,17 +18452,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "512", - "numforecasters": "369", + "numforecasts": "521", + "numforecasters": "372", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18670,12 +18484,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 14 and 18", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18684,8 +18498,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "399", - "numforecasters": "264", + "numforecasts": "407", + "numforecasters": "268", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18" }, @@ -18706,8 +18520,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "416", - "numforecasters": "339", + "numforecasts": "424", + "numforecasters": "343", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18728,8 +18542,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "234", - "numforecasters": "189", + "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasters": "194", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -18751,12 +18565,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18765,8 +18579,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "298", - "numforecasters": "197", + "numforecasts": "306", + "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000" }, @@ -18802,7 +18616,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "79", + "numforecasts": "81", "numforecasters": "26", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00" @@ -18815,12 +18629,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18839,7 +18653,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "180", + "numforecasts": "185", "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%" @@ -18862,12 +18676,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -18876,7 +18690,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "154", + "numforecasts": "157", "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500" @@ -18903,8 +18717,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "137", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "140", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No" }, @@ -18921,17 +18735,17 @@ }, { "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "539", - "numforecasters": "347", + "numforecasts": "550", + "numforecasters": "352", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -18943,16 +18757,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "80", + "numforecasts": "81", "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18965,16 +18779,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "184", + "numforecasts": "190", "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -18987,17 +18801,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "211", - "numforecasters": "75", + "numforecasts": "218", + "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19018,8 +18832,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "93", - "numforecasters": "53", + "numforecasts": "95", + "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19040,8 +18854,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "258", - "numforecasters": "117", + "numforecasts": "261", + "numforecasters": "118", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19062,8 +18876,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "189", - "numforecasters": "140", + "numforecasts": "190", + "numforecasters": "141", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19094,7 +18908,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "183", + "numforecasts": "184", "numforecasters": "123", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No" @@ -19116,7 +18930,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "168", + "numforecasts": "169", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19129,7 +18943,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brooklyn Nets", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19144,7 +18958,7 @@ }, { "name": "Milwaukee Bucks", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19158,7 +18972,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", + "numforecasts": "149", "numforecasters": "53", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship" @@ -19180,7 +18994,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", + "numforecasts": "160", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19224,8 +19038,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "296", - "numforecasters": "110", + "numforecasts": "303", + "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19237,12 +19051,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19256,8 +19070,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "253", - "numforecasters": "142", + "numforecasts": "256", + "numforecasters": "143", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" }, @@ -19293,7 +19107,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", + "numforecasts": "159", "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion" @@ -19315,8 +19129,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "100", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "101", + "numforecasters": "58", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19333,16 +19147,16 @@ }, { "name": "Same", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "94", + "numforecasts": "96", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" @@ -19364,8 +19178,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "222", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "230", + "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -19386,7 +19200,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "158", + "numforecasts": "160", "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19408,7 +19222,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "281", + "numforecasts": "284", "numforecasters": "154", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19417,7 +19231,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a19161b08131c13191b0e131514093a1d15151e100f1e1d171f140e5419151745090f18101f190e472b0f1f090e1315145f484a39161b08131c13191b0e131514). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e4878885968d828d8785908d8b8a97a4838b8b808e91808389818a90ca878b89db9791868e818790d9b5918197908d8b8ac1d6d4a78885968d828d8785908d8b8a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -19430,7 +19244,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "405", + "numforecasts": "409", "numforecasters": "197", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19453,12 +19267,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19467,7 +19281,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "412", + "numforecasts": "425", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -19490,22 +19304,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 22 and 28", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29 or more", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "609", - "numforecasters": "120", + "numforecasts": "651", + "numforecasters": "122", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more" }, @@ -19548,7 +19362,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "296", + "numforecasts": "304", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19570,7 +19384,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "88", + "numforecasts": "89", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19588,12 +19402,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19602,8 +19416,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "185", - "numforecasters": "91", + "numforecasts": "188", + "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021" }, @@ -19656,7 +19470,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "216", + "numforecasts": "223", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021" @@ -19678,7 +19492,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "110", + "numforecasts": "111", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19696,7 +19510,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19706,7 +19520,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19715,7 +19529,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "245", + "numforecasts": "247", "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion" @@ -19764,7 +19578,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasts": "127", "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No" @@ -19786,7 +19600,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "279", + "numforecasts": "280", "numforecasters": "139", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19808,7 +19622,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "262", + "numforecasts": "263", "numforecasters": "92", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -19902,17 +19716,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -19921,7 +19735,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "286", + "numforecasts": "287", "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000" @@ -19970,7 +19784,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "111", + "numforecasts": "112", "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" @@ -19992,7 +19806,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "172", + "numforecasts": "175", "numforecasters": "81", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20005,16 +19819,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "224", + "numforecasts": "233", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20041,7 +19855,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "490", + "numforecasts": "495", "numforecasters": "197", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No" @@ -20073,8 +19887,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "452", - "numforecasters": "216", + "numforecasts": "454", + "numforecasters": "217", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No" }, @@ -20095,7 +19909,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "282", + "numforecasts": "283", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20117,7 +19931,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "375", + "numforecasts": "376", "numforecasters": "228", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20139,7 +19953,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "297", + "numforecasts": "298", "numforecasters": "103", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20171,7 +19985,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "349", + "numforecasts": "353", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No" @@ -20230,7 +20044,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasts": "274", "numforecasters": "99", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" @@ -20252,7 +20066,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "86", + "numforecasts": "87", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20274,7 +20088,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "414", + "numforecasts": "415", "numforecasters": "209", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20355,7 +20169,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "274", + "numforecasts": "280", "numforecasters": "43", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50" @@ -20400,16 +20214,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "475", + "numforecasts": "481", "numforecasters": "208", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20432,7 +20246,7 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20442,7 +20256,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -20451,8 +20265,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "221", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "223", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021" }, @@ -20473,7 +20287,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "612", + "numforecasts": "613", "numforecasters": "202", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20510,7 +20324,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "566", + "numforecasts": "573", "numforecasters": "252", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%" @@ -20547,8 +20361,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1852", - "numforecasters": "602", + "numforecasts": "1868", + "numforecasters": "608", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" }, @@ -20570,17 +20384,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "350,000 or more", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "519", - "numforecasters": "217", + "numforecasts": "524", + "numforecasters": "218", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more" }, @@ -20601,8 +20415,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "343", - "numforecasters": "207", + "numforecasts": "345", + "numforecasters": "208", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20623,8 +20437,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "574", - "numforecasters": "253", + "numforecasts": "579", + "numforecasters": "254", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -20645,7 +20459,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "235", + "numforecasts": "237", "numforecasters": "126", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20667,7 +20481,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "339", + "numforecasts": "340", "numforecasters": "187", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20689,7 +20503,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "332", + "numforecasts": "334", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20717,16 +20531,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "319", + "numforecasts": "324", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" @@ -20748,7 +20562,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "241", + "numforecasts": "244", "numforecasters": "60", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20792,7 +20606,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasts": "274", "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20829,8 +20643,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1480", - "numforecasters": "211", + "numforecasts": "1487", + "numforecasters": "212", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more" }, @@ -20851,7 +20665,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "301", + "numforecasts": "302", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20873,7 +20687,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "207", + "numforecasts": "208", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -20910,7 +20724,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "158", + "numforecasts": "159", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" @@ -20969,7 +20783,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "574", + "numforecasts": "576", "numforecasters": "157", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -20991,8 +20805,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "772", - "numforecasters": "156", + "numforecasts": "778", + "numforecasters": "157", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21028,8 +20842,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "518", - "numforecasters": "228", + "numforecasts": "523", + "numforecasters": "230", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%" }, @@ -21065,7 +20879,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "510", + "numforecasts": "512", "numforecasters": "94", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million" @@ -21097,7 +20911,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "490", + "numforecasts": "493", "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" @@ -21164,7 +20978,7 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21174,7 +20988,7 @@ }, { "name": "Spain", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21188,8 +21002,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "387", - "numforecasters": "115", + "numforecasts": "390", + "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner" }, @@ -21225,8 +21039,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "707", - "numforecasters": "204", + "numforecasts": "709", + "numforecasters": "205", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021" }, @@ -21247,8 +21061,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1181", - "numforecasters": "455", + "numforecasts": "1183", + "numforecasters": "456", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21291,7 +21105,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "344", + "numforecasts": "345", "numforecasters": "154", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21304,16 +21118,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "741", + "numforecasts": "744", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21350,7 +21164,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "882", + "numforecasts": "887", "numforecasters": "167", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021" @@ -21416,7 +21230,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "660", + "numforecasts": "662", "numforecasters": "186", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21453,8 +21267,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "476", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "477", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more" }, @@ -21485,8 +21299,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "329", - "numforecasters": "73", + "numforecasts": "336", + "numforecasters": "76", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2020, Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" }, @@ -21522,7 +21336,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "376", + "numforecasts": "379", "numforecasters": "121", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000, Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000" @@ -21535,7 +21349,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21545,7 +21359,7 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21554,7 +21368,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "312", + "numforecasts": "315", "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No" @@ -21572,17 +21386,17 @@ }, { "name": "1 or 2", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3 or 4", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5 or 6", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21591,7 +21405,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "287", "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more" @@ -21623,8 +21437,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "894", - "numforecasters": "307", + "numforecasts": "900", + "numforecasters": "308", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -21645,7 +21459,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "298", + "numforecasts": "299", "numforecasters": "138", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21658,16 +21472,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "673", + "numforecasts": "677", "numforecasters": "143", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21699,7 +21513,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "249", + "numforecasts": "250", "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, a firm, Yes, a paid backup driver, Yes, both, No" @@ -21810,8 +21624,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1210", - "numforecasters": "188", + "numforecasts": "1214", + "numforecasters": "190", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.5 million, Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive, More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive, More than 20.0 million" }, @@ -21842,8 +21656,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "2214", - "numforecasters": "886", + "numforecasts": "2234", + "numforecasters": "898", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -21864,7 +21678,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "245", + "numforecasts": "246", "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -21886,8 +21700,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1111", - "numforecasters": "473", + "numforecasts": "1119", + "numforecasters": "476", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -21904,26 +21718,26 @@ }, { "name": "Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2,200,000", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "298", + "numforecasts": "301", "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000, Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive, More than 2,200,000" @@ -22051,7 +21865,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "287", + "numforecasts": "288", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $80 per kWh, Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive, More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh, Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive, More than $140 per kWh" @@ -22074,12 +21888,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22088,7 +21902,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "439", + "numforecasts": "441", "numforecasters": "149", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%" @@ -22132,7 +21946,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "307", + "numforecasts": "308", "numforecasters": "135", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22224,57 +22038,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.0392156862745098, + "probability": 0.04950495049504951, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "probability": 0.12871287128712872, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5686274509803921, + "probability": 0.5445544554455446, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.14705882352941177, + "probability": 0.1485148514851485, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22289,22 +22103,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.6734693877551021, + "probability": 0.6435643564356436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.11224489795918367, + "probability": 0.1089108910891089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.17346938775510204, + "probability": 0.20792079207920794, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.04081632653061225, + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22339,17 +22153,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.8350515463917525, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.12371134020618556, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.04123711340206185, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22364,17 +22178,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Japan", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.8627450980392156, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Same medals count", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22404,32 +22218,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.02912621359223301, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.17475728155339806, + "probability": 0.06930693069306931, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.3203883495145631, + "probability": 0.2178217821782178, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.46601941747572817, + "probability": 0.693069306930693, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22444,27 +22258,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In May or earlier", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in June (government goal)", - "probability": 0.3725490196078431, + "probability": 0.44554455445544555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in July", - "probability": 0.4411764705882353, + "probability": 0.3564356435643565, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in August", - "probability": 0.08823529411764705, + "probability": 0.07920792079207921, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "probability": 0.09900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22574,12 +22388,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44029850746268656, + "probability": 0.44360902255639095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5597014925373135, + "probability": 0.556390977443609, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22594,27 +22408,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Denis Sassou Nguesso", - "probability": 0.951923076923077, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mathias Dzon", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22704,27 +22518,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.020408163265306124, + "probability": 0.020618556701030924, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.28571428571428575, + "probability": 0.28865979381443296, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.3673469387755102, + "probability": 0.37113402061855666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.17346938775510204, + "probability": 0.17525773195876287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.15306122448979592, + "probability": 0.14432989690721648, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22739,17 +22553,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.8285714285714285, + "probability": 0.8365384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another Likud politician", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another politician not from Likud", - "probability": 0.15238095238095237, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22829,27 +22643,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "in Q1, 2021", - "probability": 0.12658227848101267, + "probability": 0.051948051948051945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.17721518987341775, + "probability": 0.1948051948051948, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.21518987341772153, + "probability": 0.2207792207792208, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.24050632911392406, + "probability": 0.24675324675324675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", - "probability": 0.24050632911392406, + "probability": 0.2857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22864,22 +22678,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.05102040816326531, + "probability": 0.028571428571428567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.5816326530612245, + "probability": 0.5142857142857142, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.29591836734693877, + "probability": 0.32380952380952377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.07142857142857144, + "probability": 0.13333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22899,7 +22713,7 @@ }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.05208333333333334, + "probability": 0.04166666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22909,7 +22723,7 @@ }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.04166666666666667, + "probability": 0.05208333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -22984,12 +22798,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.888888888888889, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11111111111111112, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -24873,32 +24687,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Cooper (Green)", - "probability": 0.00915359010936757, + "probability": 0.009070561903640004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)", - "probability": 0.00915359010936757, + "probability": 0.009070561903640004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stewart Golton (LD)", - "probability": 0.00915359010936757, + "probability": 0.009070561903640004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tracy Brabin (Lab)", - "probability": 0.8404660009510223, + "probability": 0.8328425020614912, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Robinson (Cons)", - "probability": 0.13207322872087493, + "probability": 0.13087525032394862, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Wajid Ali (Reform)", + "probability": 0.009070561903640004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Stewart Golton (LD), Tracy Brabin (Lab), Matthew Robinson (Cons)" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Stewart Golton (LD), Tracy Brabin (Lab), Matthew Robinson (Cons), Wajid Ali (Reform)" }, { "title": "Hartlepool By-election: Winner", @@ -24907,57 +24726,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.45349705670653817, + "probability": 0.44229638394840987, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4748660279649614, + "probability": 0.49144042660934434, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.004512408524443166, + "probability": 0.004400959044262785, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.017784198302217183, + "probability": 0.017344956233270977, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)", - "probability": 0.03488438897742602, + "probability": 0.026017434349906464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SDP", - "probability": 0.004512408524443166, + "probability": 0.004400959044262785, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heritage Party", - "probability": 0.0018103674918424676, + "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "UKIP", - "probability": 0.0018103674918424676, + "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Womens Equality Party", - "probability": 0.0018103674918424676, + "probability": 0.0017656542273389614, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "North East Party", - "probability": 0.004512408524443166, + "probability": 0.004400959044262785, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sam Lee (Ind)", + "probability": 0.004400959044262785, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time), SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time), SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind)" }, { "title": "Airdrie And Shotts By-election: To Win", @@ -25577,12 +25401,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.4638069705093834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No SNP Majority", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.5361930294906166, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25722,22 +25546,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.8406168766829473, + "probability": 0.8702787392475269, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.13209693776446316, + "probability": 0.10249949595581984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.01813095224218122, + "probability": 0.01808814634514468, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.009155233310408337, + "probability": 0.0091336184515087, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -26597,21 +26421,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 356, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", @@ -26639,33 +26490,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 347, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", @@ -26683,7 +26507,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 256, + "numforecasts": 259, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", @@ -26693,6 +26517,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", + "numforecasts": 144, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/", @@ -26726,29 +26577,137 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", + "numforecasts": 585, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.56, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", + "numforecasts": 185, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.94, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", + "numforecasts": 235, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -26758,7 +26717,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -26768,22 +26727,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/", @@ -26801,7 +26744,7 @@ } ], "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 1068, + "numforecasts": 1071, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -26828,45 +26771,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", + "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", - "numforecasts": 153, + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -26886,22 +26802,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 193, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", @@ -26962,7 +26862,7 @@ } ], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 285, + "numforecasts": 286, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", @@ -26972,6 +26872,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", @@ -26988,6 +26904,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", + "numforecasts": 226, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", @@ -27005,18 +26964,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -27026,7 +26985,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -27052,6 +27011,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", @@ -27075,17 +27066,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", @@ -27095,49 +27086,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n", - "numforecasts": 324, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", @@ -27198,20 +27146,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 622, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?", @@ -27229,22 +27188,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", @@ -27261,6 +27204,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/", @@ -27278,61 +27253,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "numforecasts": 121, + "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -27364,80 +27296,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n", - "numforecasts": 16, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n", - "numforecasts": 226, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", @@ -27465,13 +27338,61 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 147, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", + "numforecasts": 148, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -27481,45 +27402,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will One Piece end?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", @@ -27530,64 +27419,37 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", + "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 119, + "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", + "numforecasts": 35, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/", + "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers.\nNCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated:\n\"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\"\nNCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard.\nWill the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.\nPositive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", @@ -27604,6 +27466,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", @@ -27621,31 +27515,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 106, + "options": [], + "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", + "numforecasts": 150, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", @@ -27664,20 +27547,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 371, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", @@ -27701,7 +27595,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z", @@ -27728,31 +27622,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", + "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", - "numforecasts": 279, + "options": [], + "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?", @@ -27760,7 +27643,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n", - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", @@ -27787,20 +27670,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", + "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n", + "numforecasts": 147, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", @@ -27830,61 +27724,50 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", + "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 21, + "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", + "numforecasts": 508, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", + "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 64, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -27915,6 +27798,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", + "numforecasts": 79, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/", @@ -27931,6 +27830,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", + "numforecasts": 143, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/", @@ -27958,60 +27884,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", - "numforecasts": 139, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 254, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", @@ -28050,7 +27922,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n", - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 158, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", @@ -28076,22 +27948,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will PHP die?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 96, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/", @@ -28136,18 +27992,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/", + "title": "When will PHP die?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 81, + "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28168,18 +28024,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", + "title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28237,119 +28093,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", - "numforecasts": 194, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 95, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 11, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 219, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-12T19:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", @@ -28377,6 +28120,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-12T19:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/", @@ -28393,65 +28168,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", - "numforecasts": 503, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", - "numforecasts": 228, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/", @@ -28468,13 +28184,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", + "numforecasts": 228, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -28484,49 +28216,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", @@ -28560,34 +28249,45 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", + "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -28623,65 +28323,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 43, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/", @@ -28710,21 +28351,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", + "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 178, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-10-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", @@ -28741,38 +28425,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 28, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/", @@ -28789,6 +28441,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 28, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/", @@ -28859,65 +28527,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 581, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", @@ -28945,6 +28554,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", @@ -28988,49 +28613,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 518, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", - "numforecasts": 366, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", @@ -29074,6 +28656,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", + "numforecasts": 189, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", @@ -29101,49 +28715,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/", @@ -29171,38 +28742,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", @@ -29230,6 +28769,76 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", + "numforecasts": 177, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", @@ -29247,7 +28856,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 130, + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", @@ -29273,65 +28882,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", - "numforecasts": 106, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", - "numforecasts": 237, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/", @@ -29359,6 +28909,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n", + "numforecasts": 129, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-26T10:02:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 159, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/", @@ -29376,7 +28958,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n", - "numforecasts": 400, + "numforecasts": 403, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", @@ -29403,18 +28985,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/", + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 642, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-15T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-26T10:02:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -29424,7 +29006,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, + "numforecasts": 232, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -29435,36 +29017,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", + "numforecasts": 2787, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?", @@ -29493,33 +29070,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2777, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/", @@ -29527,17 +29077,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "numforecasts": 98, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -29547,22 +29097,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 147, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", @@ -29580,7 +29114,7 @@ } ], "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 169, + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -29591,20 +29125,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/", + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-26T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T19:09:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?", @@ -29665,33 +29210,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", @@ -29719,6 +29237,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 78, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", @@ -29736,7 +29270,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", @@ -29789,38 +29323,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/", @@ -29854,34 +29356,50 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", + "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", - "numforecasts": 148, + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -29901,22 +29419,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n", - "numforecasts": 44, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-02T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-02-18T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T09:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -29977,7 +29479,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -29988,29 +29490,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", + "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 455, + "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30020,7 +29522,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -30030,33 +29532,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 168, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/", @@ -30073,22 +29548,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/", @@ -30105,6 +29564,65 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "numforecasts": 630, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/", @@ -30122,7 +29640,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 405, + "numforecasts": 409, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -30149,18 +29667,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -30170,7 +29704,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -30251,7 +29785,7 @@ } ], "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -30261,6 +29795,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/", @@ -30310,7 +29860,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -30336,22 +29886,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", @@ -30380,34 +29914,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 152, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T02:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 74, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -30439,18 +29957,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", + "numforecasts": 214, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -30482,45 +30000,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", - "numforecasts": 108, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 230, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -30530,7 +30032,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n", - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z", @@ -30540,54 +30042,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 92, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", - "numforecasts": 150, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/", @@ -30615,49 +30069,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 371, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", @@ -30745,7 +30156,7 @@ } ], "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", - "numforecasts": 92, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", @@ -30756,80 +30167,21 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", + "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1161, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", @@ -30847,7 +30199,7 @@ } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 193, + "numforecasts": 200, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -30857,6 +30209,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/", @@ -30879,7 +30247,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 126, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -30943,33 +30311,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/", @@ -30997,76 +30338,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 256, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", - "numforecasts": 508, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", - "numforecasts": 39, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", @@ -31074,17 +30345,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z", @@ -31094,6 +30365,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 167, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", @@ -31121,22 +30408,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", @@ -31153,6 +30424,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/", @@ -31180,70 +30467,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 64, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 47, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 146, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6916/when-will-the-suez-canal-blockage-be-cleared/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Suez Canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia. The canal offers watercraft a more direct route between the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans via the Mediterranean and Red seas, thus avoiding the South Atlantic and southern Indian oceans and reducing the journey distance from the Arabian Sea to London, for example, by approximately 8,900 kilometres (5,500 mi). It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez. Its length is 193.30 km (120.11 mi) including its northern and southern access-channels. In 2012, 17,225 vessels traversed the canal (an average of 47 per day).\nAt 07:40 Eastern European Time on 23 March 2021, the [Ever Given](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given), a Golden-class container ship, one of the largest in the world, was passing through the Suez Canal on its way to Rotterdam from Tanjung Pelepas when it ran aground, turned sideways and blocked the canal, causing the canal to be impassable, and significantly disrupting international shipping.\nAs of 24 March 2021, eight tugboats are working to re-float the vessel in collaboration with diggers removing sand from the side of the canal where the vessel is wedged.\nWhen will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?\nThis question resolves as the time and date the Suez Canal becomes navigable by commercial shipping vessels, as reported by a major news organization (e.g. AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, etc.).\nETA (26 March): Ships with a beam of at least 20 meters must be able to pass the canal for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 35, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-26T11:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/", @@ -31260,54 +30483,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", - "numforecasts": 30, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n", - "numforecasts": 14, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", @@ -31325,72 +30500,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", + "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 98, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -31427,7 +30559,7 @@ } ], "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", - "numforecasts": 135, + "numforecasts": 136, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", @@ -31437,49 +30569,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "numforecasts": 114, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", @@ -31496,65 +30585,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", - "numforecasts": 189, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 157, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1345, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/", @@ -31571,60 +30601,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", - "numforecasts": 177, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/", @@ -31642,45 +30618,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -31706,7 +30666,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -31716,65 +30676,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/", @@ -31792,7 +30693,7 @@ } ], "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 1110, + "numforecasts": 1111, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -31802,65 +30703,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n", - "numforecasts": 206, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:47:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-05T22:48:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 78, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", @@ -31888,33 +30730,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 119, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", @@ -31931,76 +30746,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", - "numforecasts": 12, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", @@ -32039,7 +30784,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -32049,60 +30794,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 630, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n", - "numforecasts": 182, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", @@ -32173,76 +30864,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 99, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/", @@ -32270,49 +30891,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/", @@ -32330,29 +30908,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/", + "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n", + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -32372,38 +30950,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", @@ -32452,22 +30998,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/", @@ -32484,65 +31014,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 152, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T02:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", - "numforecasts": 214, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 230, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", @@ -32575,22 +31046,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", @@ -32635,31 +31090,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 535, + "options": [], + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", @@ -32704,110 +31148,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 159, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", - "numforecasts": 56, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 97, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -32850,7 +31197,7 @@ } ], "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "numforecasts": 238, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", @@ -32860,33 +31207,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", @@ -32903,22 +31223,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/", @@ -32952,29 +31256,56 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", + "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", + "numforecasts": 519, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -33010,151 +31341,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 172, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 875, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n", - "numforecasts": 26, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", @@ -33182,60 +31368,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 586, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 163, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/", @@ -33264,88 +31396,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 221, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 83, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -33376,49 +31438,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 359, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", @@ -33447,45 +31466,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", + "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", + "options": [], + "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n", "numforecasts": 26, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -33517,31 +31509,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", + "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n", - "numforecasts": 358, + "options": [], + "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", @@ -33560,52 +31541,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n", - "numforecasts": 101, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.46, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 288, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 119, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", @@ -33613,7 +31573,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -33623,38 +31583,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 46, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", @@ -33682,6 +31610,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/", @@ -33699,18 +31643,45 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", + "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 215, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -33773,6 +31744,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.18, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", @@ -33945,6 +31943,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/", @@ -34004,6 +32018,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.66, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n", + "numforecasts": 38, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", @@ -34101,33 +32142,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 216, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", @@ -34210,20 +32224,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", + "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", + "numforecasts": 221, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?", @@ -34242,7 +32321,7 @@ } ], "description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n", - "numforecasts": 490, + "numforecasts": 491, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z", @@ -34354,6 +32433,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", @@ -34371,7 +32466,7 @@ } ], "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", - "numforecasts": 300, + "numforecasts": 301, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", @@ -34387,7 +32482,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 244, + "numforecasts": 246, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", @@ -34397,6 +32492,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.20999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 102, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/", @@ -34430,7 +32552,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 95, + "numforecasts": 103, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -34457,7 +32579,7 @@ } ], "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "numforecasts": 560, + "numforecasts": 564, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", @@ -34467,22 +32589,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", @@ -34505,7 +32611,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -34602,20 +32708,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/", + "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", @@ -34623,7 +32740,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -34633,6 +32750,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", @@ -34649,6 +32782,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n", + "numforecasts": 95, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/", @@ -34682,7 +32842,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -34693,56 +32853,45 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", + "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "options": [], + "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/", + "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", - "numforecasts": 194, + "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34762,6 +32911,76 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.64, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.36, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", + "numforecasts": 197, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 366, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -34854,7 +33073,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 720, + "numforecasts": 721, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -34865,29 +33084,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1250, + "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n", + "numforecasts": 359, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -34998,6 +33217,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", @@ -35106,7 +33341,7 @@ } ], "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", @@ -35116,6 +33351,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", + "numforecasts": 18, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-26T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T19:09:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/", @@ -35212,33 +33479,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/", @@ -35309,6 +33549,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 132, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/", @@ -35342,7 +33609,7 @@ } ], "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
  • There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
    • \nOR\n
  • Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
    • \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
  • 46 people have reached the age of 115.
  • 19 people have reached the age of 116.
  • 9 people have reached the age of 117.
  • 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
  • Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
    • \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 316, + "numforecasts": 318, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", @@ -35379,6 +33646,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", + "numforecasts": 142, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/", @@ -35422,22 +33705,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 141, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", @@ -35503,18 +33770,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", + "title": "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6879/may-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 64, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-05T23:04:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -35551,7 +33818,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -35567,7 +33834,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", @@ -35577,13 +33844,67 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 254, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -35599,7 +33920,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -35609,6 +33930,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", @@ -35641,6 +33978,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/", @@ -35657,6 +34021,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", + "numforecasts": 487, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/", @@ -35685,58 +34076,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 486, + "options": [], + "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", + "numforecasts": 144, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 109, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", @@ -35772,17 +34125,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 83, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -35808,6 +34161,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 537, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -35841,7 +34221,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", - "numforecasts": 113, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -35851,6 +34231,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 1163, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/", @@ -36007,13 +34441,56 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Russia become a democracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will Russia become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -36029,7 +34506,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n", - "numforecasts": 303, + "numforecasts": 304, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", @@ -36039,6 +34516,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", + "numforecasts": 122, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", @@ -36109,22 +34613,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 153, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/", @@ -36169,31 +34657,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/", + "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 591, + "options": [], + "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?", @@ -36222,6 +34699,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", + "numforecasts": 593, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/", @@ -36281,6 +34785,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1253, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", @@ -36297,6 +34828,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nThis question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts.\n", + "numforecasts": 112, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", @@ -36319,7 +34877,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n", - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 109, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", @@ -36329,6 +34887,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", + "numforecasts": 53, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/", @@ -36346,28 +34936,55 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/", + "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", + "numforecasts": 14, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n", + "numforecasts": 39, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -36378,31 +34995,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", + "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "options": [], + "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?", @@ -36436,13 +35042,67 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", + "numforecasts": 122, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 588, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6874/initial-jobless-claims-in-may-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -36479,6 +35139,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/", @@ -36522,6 +35198,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 456, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", @@ -36550,31 +35253,36 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", + "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", - "numforecasts": 287, + "options": [], + "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", + "numforecasts": 110, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", + "numforecasts": 93, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", @@ -36603,33 +35311,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 221, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/", @@ -36678,6 +35359,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 224, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", @@ -36695,29 +35403,56 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/", + "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.20999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
    • \n", + "numforecasts": 505, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -36791,33 +35526,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", @@ -36861,6 +35569,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/", @@ -36931,6 +35666,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", @@ -36953,7 +35715,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -36990,6 +35752,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 174, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", @@ -36997,17 +35786,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 142, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", @@ -37034,7 +35823,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 356, + "numforecasts": 357, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -37044,6 +35833,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives vote to formally discipline a House Member?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n", + "numforecasts": 13, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1346, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/", @@ -37060,6 +35903,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6916/when-will-the-suez-canal-blockage-be-cleared/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Suez Canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia. The canal offers watercraft a more direct route between the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans via the Mediterranean and Red seas, thus avoiding the South Atlantic and southern Indian oceans and reducing the journey distance from the Arabian Sea to London, for example, by approximately 8,900 kilometres (5,500 mi). It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez. Its length is 193.30 km (120.11 mi) including its northern and southern access-channels. In 2012, 17,225 vessels traversed the canal (an average of 47 per day).\nAt 07:40 Eastern European Time on 23 March 2021, the [Ever Given](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given), a Golden-class container ship, one of the largest in the world, was passing through the Suez Canal on its way to Rotterdam from Tanjung Pelepas when it ran aground, turned sideways and blocked the canal, causing the canal to be impassable, and significantly disrupting international shipping.\nAs of 24 March 2021, eight tugboats are working to re-float the vessel in collaboration with diggers removing sand from the side of the canal where the vessel is wedged.\nWhen will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?\nThis question resolves as the time and date the Suez Canal becomes navigable by commercial shipping vessels, as reported by a major news organization (e.g. AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, etc.).\nETA (26 March): Ships with a beam of at least 20 meters must be able to pass the canal for this question to resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 210, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-26T11:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", @@ -37076,6 +35962,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", + "numforecasts": 216, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 107, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/", @@ -37092,6 +36021,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 67, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", @@ -37119,10 +36064,96 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "numforecasts": 296, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "numforecasts": 241, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -37135,14 +36166,14 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, + "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", + "numforecasts": 1261, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -37173,6 +36204,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.\n", + "numforecasts": 50, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", @@ -37233,7 +36280,7 @@ } ], "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 268, + "numforecasts": 270, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", @@ -37243,6 +36290,49 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n", + "numforecasts": 35, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", + "numforecasts": 153, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/", @@ -37297,6 +36387,140 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will One Piece end?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n", + "numforecasts": 324, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", + "numforecasts": 194, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 80, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", @@ -37313,6 +36537,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 37, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n", + "numforecasts": 16, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/", @@ -37329,6 +36585,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", + "numforecasts": 366, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n", + "numforecasts": 19, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/", @@ -37345,6 +36633,103 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers.\nNCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated:\n\"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\"\nNCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard.\nWill the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.\nPositive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.\n", + "numforecasts": 21, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n", + "numforecasts": 279, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 256, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 47, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/", @@ -37377,6 +36762,279 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 146, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", + "numforecasts": 49, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", + "numforecasts": 30, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n", + "numforecasts": 14, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", + "numforecasts": 40, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", + "numforecasts": 109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 29, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", + "numforecasts": 231, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", + "numforecasts": 111, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 74, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", @@ -37404,6 +37062,54 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", + "numforecasts": 82, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 195, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n", + "numforecasts": 206, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:47:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-05T22:48:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", @@ -37431,6 +37137,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/", @@ -37463,6 +37196,124 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n", + "numforecasts": 44, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-02T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-02-18T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T09:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n", + "numforecasts": 88, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/", @@ -37490,6 +37341,119 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", + "numforecasts": 39, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", + "numforecasts": 12, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", + "numforecasts": 57, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/", @@ -37497,17 +37461,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 625, + "numforecasts": 640, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -37517,13 +37481,56 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 43, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 475, + "numforecasts": 478, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -37533,6 +37540,124 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", + "numforecasts": 875, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n", + "numforecasts": 101, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", + "numforecasts": 119, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", + "numforecasts": 123, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 25, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/", @@ -37663,17 +37788,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", @@ -37689,7 +37814,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.\nThe Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.\nThe Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]\nHow much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with >30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This resolves on the basis of the data by [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR).\nNote that this question resolves as gross forest coverage loss, (not net forest coverage loss), the metric therefore does not deduct tree coverage gains.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, + "numforecasts": 148, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -37882,7 +38007,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n", - "numforecasts": 191, + "numforecasts": 192, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", @@ -38027,7 +38152,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -38043,7 +38168,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\nKeyword for search: artificial womb.\n", - "numforecasts": 114, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -38118,7 +38243,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n", - "numforecasts": 685, + "numforecasts": 688, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -38671,7 +38796,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -38735,7 +38860,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -38982,7 +39107,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", - "numforecasts": 164, + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -39293,7 +39418,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -39352,7 +39477,7 @@ } ], "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 432, + "numforecasts": 433, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -39411,7 +39536,7 @@ } ], "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", - "numforecasts": 537, + "numforecasts": 538, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -39475,7 +39600,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n", - "numforecasts": 184, + "numforecasts": 187, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -39529,7 +39654,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -39647,7 +39772,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", - "numforecasts": 452, + "numforecasts": 459, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", @@ -40168,7 +40293,7 @@ } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 165, + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -40210,6 +40335,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 692, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", @@ -40226,22 +40367,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 691, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", @@ -40280,7 +40405,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 211, + "numforecasts": 218, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -40356,17 +40481,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -40409,7 +40534,7 @@ } ], "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 172, + "numforecasts": 173, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", @@ -40856,7 +40981,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n", - "numforecasts": 302, + "numforecasts": 303, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -40872,7 +40997,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nIf whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. \n[Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the \"overshoot\" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than hardware (such as neuroscience knowledge or scanning technology), since whole brain emulation will be delayed to a time when hardware is cheaper.\nHow much computing power is required to run a whole brain emulation is not known (although rough estimates have been made by [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf), and [by fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/)). What is known is that the required power will almost certainly depend on the necessary level of resolution at which the copy of the brain needs to be modelled in order to emulate the human brain at a high level of fidelity.\nIf and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability for an hour of subjective run-time cost in 2019 USD?\nMethodology\nIn line with the methodology used in [AI Impacts (2015)](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/#Cost_of_human-level_TEPS_performance), hardware costs will be amortised over a period of three years. That is, for a given computer we consider the fixed costs of purchasing and the cost of operating it over a year. Operating costs may include maintenance, rent of related facilities (power generation/distribution, cooling systems, etc.), utilities costs (i.e. electricity) and staffing. Then, hardware costs per hour is given by:\nThis figure is then adjusted to 2019 prices using a commonly used producer's price index of the country in which the supercomputer was purchased.\nResolution\nIf a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/), the question will 365 days after the first successful emulation as the lowest hardware cost-per-hour (in 2019 prices) that is enabled by a supercomputer that is shown to run an emulation.\nThis cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully. \nBy \"cost-per-hour\" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of \"subjective time\", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of \"subjective time\".\n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-13T22:00:00Z", @@ -40958,7 +41083,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 364, + "numforecasts": 365, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -41022,7 +41147,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 237, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -41065,7 +41190,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 268, + "numforecasts": 277, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -41151,7 +41276,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).\nWhen will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?\n---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). \n---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. \n---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as \">2050-09-05\". \n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -41425,7 +41550,7 @@ } ], "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", @@ -41538,7 +41663,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.\nIn colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.\nIn that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?\nThe child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.\nA 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.\n'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 164, + "numforecasts": 165, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", @@ -41575,6 +41700,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 649, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/", @@ -41602,40 +41754,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 645, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -41823,7 +41948,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n", - "numforecasts": 229, + "numforecasts": 235, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", @@ -42005,7 +42130,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -42085,6 +42210,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 193, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/", @@ -42139,33 +42291,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6599999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/", @@ -42188,7 +42313,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -42215,7 +42340,7 @@ } ], "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n", - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 123, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -42436,17 +42561,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "numforecasts": 177, + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", @@ -42779,7 +42904,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -42822,7 +42947,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -43026,7 +43151,7 @@ } ], "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 162, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", @@ -43149,6 +43274,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/", @@ -43165,22 +43306,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/", @@ -43767,33 +43892,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", - "numforecasts": 1256, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/", @@ -43827,7 +43925,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n", - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 25, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", @@ -44170,7 +44268,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -44218,7 +44316,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.\nThis question asks:\nWhat will China's HDI score be in 2030?\n--- \nThis question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).\n--- \nIf the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -44277,7 +44375,7 @@ } ], "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 256, + "numforecasts": 257, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", @@ -44464,33 +44562,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/", @@ -44653,7 +44724,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 48, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -44782,7 +44853,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z", @@ -45147,22 +45218,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 291, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/", @@ -45266,7 +45321,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n", - "numforecasts": 153, + "numforecasts": 154, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -45964,7 +46019,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n", - "numforecasts": 208, + "numforecasts": 209, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -46497,17 +46552,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.
  • If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
    • \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n", - "numforecasts": 194, + "numforecasts": 196, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z", @@ -46668,7 +46723,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] Emulations might also enable a type of “digital immortality” by creating back‐up copies of an individual's identity, thereby promising a type of continued survival in cyberspace after death.[[3](https://jetpress.org/v26.2/linssen_lemmens.htm)]\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of WBE: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated. However, the necessary scanning, data gathering, image interpretation, and amounts of computation required might still be beyond what our reach for some time to come. (see [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)])\nWhen will a whole human brain be successfully emulated?\nThis question resolves positive when a human brain is first successfully emulated on a computer, with the emulation being at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” defined in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion of an individual brain emulation: \nThe emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\nRequired properties of an individual brain emulation: \nCorrect internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\nEmulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.\n", - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 130, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -46818,7 +46873,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -47177,7 +47232,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 233, + "numforecasts": 234, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z", @@ -47478,6 +47533,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/", @@ -47495,7 +47566,7 @@ } ], "description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 153, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -47505,22 +47576,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/", @@ -48134,7 +48189,7 @@ } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5106, + "numforecasts": 5108, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -48815,33 +48870,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n", - "numforecasts": 459, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T22:16:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:16:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/", @@ -48858,13 +48886,40 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n", + "numforecasts": 460, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-29T22:16:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:16:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nFollowing the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):\nOn April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.\nSome states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. \nThese were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:\n---January 2019 676,190 \n---February 2019 615,986 \n---March 2019 738,969 \n---April 2019 719,238 \n---May 2019 751,725 \n---June 2019 754,175 \n---July 2019 783,588 \n---August 2019 783,830 \n---September 2019 716,792 \n---October 2019 750,827 \n---November 2019 703,616 \n---December 2019 728,899 \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhen will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). \nTo pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) \n---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) \n---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) \n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z", @@ -48907,7 +48962,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),\nLet an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.\nNick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),\nNote that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.\nand categorized takeoff durations into three types:\n--- \n\"A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.\"\n--- \n\"A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.\"\n--- \n\"A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.\"\nWhile it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,\nAssume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:\nWithin two years of that point? ___% chance\nWithin thirty years of that point? ___% chance\nThe median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.\nThis question is resolved based on the resolution of two other Metaculus questions. The date of resolution of when the first AGI is built is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). The date of resolution of when the first superintelligence is built is determined by the dates used to resolve [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/) (whichever version of superintelligence was developed earlier, the date of development determines the date relevant to this question).\nIf no superintelligence is constructed before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z", @@ -48944,33 +48999,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n", - "numforecasts": 81, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/", @@ -49003,6 +49031,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/", @@ -49523,22 +49578,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/", @@ -49829,22 +49868,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/", @@ -49872,6 +49895,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/", @@ -49937,7 +49976,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", - "numforecasts": 231, + "numforecasts": 232, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -50506,7 +50545,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -50565,7 +50604,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n", - "numforecasts": 476, + "numforecasts": 477, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-18T08:00:00Z", @@ -51361,17 +51400,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6599999999999999, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.\nWill any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", @@ -51956,22 +51995,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/", @@ -52764,17 +52787,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 404, + "numforecasts": 423, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -52784,22 +52807,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/", @@ -52827,6 +52834,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/", @@ -52918,33 +52941,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/", @@ -53005,7 +53001,7 @@ } ], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\nCaenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\nHas recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n1-- \nIn January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n2-- \nFor each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3-- \nContinue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)\n", - "numforecasts": 136, + "numforecasts": 137, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", @@ -53015,33 +53011,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nThis question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 111, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/", @@ -53107,7 +53076,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n", - "numforecasts": 113, + "numforecasts": 114, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", @@ -54116,7 +54085,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 405, + "numforecasts": 406, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -54261,7 +54230,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.\nWill Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following occur:\n--- \nMetaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question\n------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries \n--- \nThe payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) \n--- \nAn individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024\nIf Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -54390,7 +54359,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n", - "numforecasts": 523, + "numforecasts": 525, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -54481,7 +54450,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 253, + "numforecasts": 254, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", @@ -55367,7 +55336,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)\nThis question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?\nThis question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.\n", - "numforecasts": 210, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-06T11:00:00Z", @@ -55512,7 +55481,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", @@ -55830,17 +55799,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "numforecasts": 1366, + "numforecasts": 1367, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -56195,7 +56164,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n", - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 118, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", @@ -56227,7 +56196,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 213, + "numforecasts": 214, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -56435,131 +56404,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5871432055669133105154549423449486", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4128567944330866894845450576550514", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "317", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4391425697965956603305816025607775", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5608574302034043396694183974392225", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "148", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-30-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 70", - "probability": "0.1672746246072319080776838488635544", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "70-80", - "probability": "0.2476901256544144696879613915347041", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "81-90", - "probability": "0.1952432196242796903539219437959104", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "91-100", - "probability": "0.1164785241546611526816670444449205", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "101-110", - "probability": "0.1216864057709885832664494211185656", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 110", - "probability": "0.1516271001884241959323163502423449", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "299", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70, 70-80, 81-90, 91-100, 101-110, More than 110" - }, - { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9020409953503909000562711280753918", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.09795900464960909994372887192460815", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "791", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2633073732555388130695659666251378", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7366926267444611869304340333748622", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "421", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021", @@ -56568,22 +56412,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Texas", - "probability": "0.1883710726564277022850745484333587", + "probability": "0.09471882941566854900783987701471025", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Florida", - "probability": "0.7262394404243919097345492332829238", + "probability": "0.8862514475368737605999119046633115", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "California", - "probability": "0.08538948691918038798037621828371755", + "probability": "0.01902972304745769039224821832197825", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "233", - "stars": 4, + "numforecasts": "276", + "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Texas, Florida, California" }, { @@ -56594,301 +56438,79 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4530636632783070484902652045781653", + "probability": "0.3325426078486210391403659153611369", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5469363367216929515097347954218347", + "probability": "0.6674573921513789608596340846388631", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "80", + "numforecasts": "98", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5", + "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\n", + "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3751565387443145112653164613151741", + "probability": "0.1718025008310863946779364090448349", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6248434612556854887346835386848259", + "probability": "0.8281974991689136053220635909551651", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "24", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", - "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5063624076489165994445641010569313", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4936375923510834005554358989430687", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "79", + "numforecasts": "451", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.001003847031198783653878237328185352", + "probability": "0.8978542963687510509806282313940195", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9989961529688012163461217626718146", + "probability": "0.1021457036312489490193717686059805", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "4270", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2401966918615018843983652361027869", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7598033081384981156016347638972131", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "7240", + "numforecasts": "797", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "title": "Will the Ever Given be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ever-given-be-dislodged-from-the-suez-canal-by-march-30", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Ever Given container ship (IMO: 9811000, MMSI 353136000) will be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. For the purpose of this market, dislodged from the Suez Canal will mean that the Ever Given has a latitude higher than 30.03000 N (i.e. be at least half a mile above where it got stuck) or lower than 30.01000 N degrees (i.e. be at least half a mile below where it got stuck), by the resolution date, March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this for this market will be the Ever Green’s latitude and longitude coordinates, as tracked by Vessel Finder and displayed in their “Position & Voyage Data” table (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07809788734415578259133846771486672", + "probability": "0.4698896746217403382421058389612625", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9219021126558442174086615322851333", + "probability": "0.5301103253782596617578941610387375", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "390", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05203301629799111589572981466929816", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9479669837020088841042701853307018", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "83", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.02583516387131374839338592849894705", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.974164836128686251606614071501053", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "712", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1239743371249700020666953031210272", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8760256628750299979333046968789728", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4464472380436790440847039771157174", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5535527619563209559152960228842826", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "2303", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05082943790130478653184589035805252", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9491705620986952134681541096419475", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "71", - "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1961684427606103841153688323774687", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8038315572393896158846311676225313", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05860162608821927934180182205734666", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9413983739117807206581981779426533", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "93", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.696874352742622330981106127626817", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.303125647257377669018893872373183", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "51", + "numforecasts": "383", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -56900,16 +56522,325 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5084922355951987486962057308046653", + "probability": "0.4526971438909513404307955024326983", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4915077644048012513037942691953347", + "probability": "0.5473028561090486595692044975673017", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "49", + "numforecasts": "57", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4426875615958327161228189497385512", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5573124384041672838771810502614488", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "91", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0007833069340194859579063580919656911", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9992166930659805140420936419080343", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "187", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.11325563039183722103275617002183", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.88674436960816277896724382997817", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "7773", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0005773167438572659616369798800062558", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9994226832561427340383630201199937", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4284", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0785186989419276422486486868372132", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9214813010580723577513513131627868", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "399", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0463958172809963982245937485905163", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9536041827190036017754062514094837", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "85", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.01556978274231434901849274397707455", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9844302172576856509815072560229254", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "720", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1199447741739855272384936981505642", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8800552258260144727615063018494358", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "73", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6720667278394123702971286257476096", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3279332721605876297028713742523904", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "2618", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.01019374154946546974525356766539572", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9898062584505345302547464323346043", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "87", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "$80M or Less", + "probability": "0.09311545717991747005375998978049056", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$81-105M", + "probability": "0.4546994257057043229946384853760889", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$106-120M", + "probability": "0.2157457711612491388147202046582125", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$121-135M", + "probability": "0.1199694628723149212877599749935941", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$136M or More", + "probability": "0.1164698830808141468491213451916138", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "144", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "$80M or Less, $81-105M, $106-120M, $121-135M, $136M or More" + }, + { + "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1645269193840114258022893873779148", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8354730806159885741977106126220852", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "78", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.05850935819533382463369476425064051", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9414906418046661753663052357493595", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "96", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7288981168376345387653725396207922", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2711018831623654612346274603792078", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "54", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -56921,16 +56852,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7517224139225624292201826311776367", + "probability": "0.7158133605584465880501470012740285", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2482775860774375707798173688223633", + "probability": "0.2841866394415534119498529987259715", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "48", + "numforecasts": "56", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2791105028801385312747041678913065", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7208894971198614687252958321086935", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "30", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -56941,7 +56893,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -56991,12 +56943,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5445544554455446, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.45544554455445546, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57011,12 +56963,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.5825242718446602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.4174757281553398, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57031,47 +56983,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "probability": 0.0660377358490566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.8878504672897195, + "probability": 0.8679245283018868, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57086,12 +57038,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57106,12 +57058,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57146,12 +57098,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57206,12 +57158,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8712871287128713, + "probability": 0.8811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.1188118811881188, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57226,88 +57178,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4956521739130434, + "probability": 0.4999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.21739130434782605, + "probability": 0.21929824561403508, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.0608695652173913, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.05217391304347825, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.043478260869565216, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dianne Morales", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paperboy Prince", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Fernando Mateo", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?", @@ -57336,12 +57288,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57376,12 +57328,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57396,12 +57348,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6078431372549019, + "probability": 0.6039603960396039, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.39215686274509803, + "probability": 0.39603960396039606, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57456,12 +57408,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57476,12 +57428,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57496,7 +57448,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -57516,22 +57468,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8640776699029126, + "probability": 0.8653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy", - "probability": 0.10679611650485436, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Fairfax", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57546,12 +57498,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57646,88 +57598,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.3739130434782608, + "probability": 0.3833333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.31304347826086953, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.07826086956521738, + "probability": 0.2833333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.06956521739130433, + "probability": 0.10833333333333332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.03478260869565217, + "name": "Annalena Baerbock", + "probability": 0.08333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.03478260869565217, + "probability": 0.033333333333333326, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "name": "Olaf Scholz", + "probability": 0.024999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jens Spahn", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Olaf Scholz, Angela Merkel, Jens Spahn, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Ralph Brinkhaus" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?", @@ -57736,37 +57688,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.4909090909090909, + "probability": 0.5046728971962617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.24545454545454545, + "probability": 0.24299065420560748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.13636363636363635, + "probability": 0.14018691588785046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.09999999999999999, + "probability": 0.08411214953271028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -57801,88 +57753,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.23364485981308405, + "probability": 0.22807017543859642, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.1775700934579439, + "probability": 0.17543859649122803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.09345794392523363, + "probability": 0.08771929824561402, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.09345794392523363, + "probability": 0.08771929824561402, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, + "probability": 0.052631578947368404, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, + "probability": 0.052631578947368404, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, + "probability": 0.04385964912280701, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, + "probability": 0.04385964912280701, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Cotton", + "probability": 0.035087719298245605, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, + "probability": 0.035087719298245605, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, + "probability": 0.035087719298245605, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, + "probability": 0.026315789473684202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.026315789473684202, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.026315789473684202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, + "probability": 0.026315789473684202, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.017543859649122803, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Larry Hogan, Rick Scott" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", @@ -57891,43 +57843,43 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.3899999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.35999999999999993, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.06999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pete Buttigieg", + "probability": 0.059999999999999984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.039999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton" }, { "title": "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?", @@ -57981,37 +57933,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.5046728971962617, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.24299065420560748, + "probability": 0.25471698113207547, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07476635514018691, + "probability": 0.07547169811320754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.07476635514018691, + "probability": 0.07547169811320754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.06542056074766356, + "probability": 0.056603773584905655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58066,12 +58018,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58126,12 +58078,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58146,12 +58098,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7920792079207921, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.2079207920792079, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58166,67 +58118,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.3211009174311926, + "probability": 0.3364485981308411, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.30275229357798167, + "probability": 0.29906542056074764, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.2110091743119266, + "probability": 0.205607476635514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58261,12 +58213,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58301,12 +58253,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58321,12 +58273,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.6017699115044247, + "probability": 0.584070796460177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.2831858407079646, + "probability": 0.30088495575221236, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58406,7 +58358,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8971962616822429, + "probability": 0.8878504672897195, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58419,11 +58376,6 @@ "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", "probability": 0.009345794392523364, @@ -58457,7 +58409,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?", @@ -58486,52 +58438,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.45614035087719296, + "probability": 0.47058823529411764, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.3596491228070175, + "probability": 0.34453781512605036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.08771929824561403, + "probability": 0.08403361344537814, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.03508771929824561, + "probability": 0.03361344537815126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.025210084033613443, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58546,12 +58498,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58586,47 +58538,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.35514018691588783, + "probability": 0.3584905660377358, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.32710280373831774, + "probability": 0.32075471698113206, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.09345794392523364, + "probability": 0.09433962264150944, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.037383177570093455, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyrus Vance", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Florence", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Crotty", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58646,12 +58598,12 @@ }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -58661,32 +58613,32 @@ }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58721,62 +58673,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.5865384615384615, + "probability": 0.6074766355140186, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.2788461538461538, + "probability": 0.27102803738317754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58791,88 +58743,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.6923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.17307692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Juan Arteaga", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Einer Elhauge", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Juan Arteaga", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gigi Sohn", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Edward Smith", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Einer Elhauge", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Douglas Melamed", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Juan Arteaga, Rebecca Slaughter, Einer Elhauge, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Douglas Melamed" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?", @@ -58881,17 +58833,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.8613861386138614, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58966,58 +58918,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.4038461538461538, + "probability": 0.4117647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.125, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.09615384615384616, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.09615384615384616, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.08653846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.06730769230769232, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Jair Bolsonaro, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Cyril Ramaphosa, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", @@ -59026,27 +58978,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.6534653465346535, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.3069306930693069, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emilia Sykes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joyce Beatty", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nan Whaley", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59061,32 +59013,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6635514018691588, + "probability": 0.6666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.13333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.11214953271028036, + "probability": 0.11428571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.06542056074766356, + "probability": 0.06666666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59101,52 +59053,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.2803738317757009, + "probability": 0.2935779816513761, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.24299065420560748, + "probability": 0.2201834862385321, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.21495327102803738, + "probability": 0.2110091743119266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.18691588785046728, + "probability": 0.19266055045871558, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59216,12 +59168,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.6633663366336634, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33663366336633666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59256,73 +59208,73 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.35185185185185186, + "probability": 0.3592233009708737, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.35185185185185186, + "probability": 0.320388349514563, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.07407407407407407, + "probability": 0.06796116504854367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Thea Lee", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.06796116504854367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.058252427184466, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Bernstein", + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ann O'Leary", + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gene Sperling", + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Neera Tanden", + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Sarah Bianchi, Martha Coven, Gene Sperling, Jared Bernstein, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, Heather Boushey, John Jones" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Sarah Bianchi, Martha Coven, Heather Boushey, Jared Bernstein, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Gene Sperling, Neera Tanden, John Jones" }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?", @@ -59426,12 +59378,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59446,7 +59398,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.6018518518518517, + "probability": 0.6111111111111109, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59466,7 +59418,12 @@ }, { "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.04629629629629629, + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59481,12 +59438,7 @@ }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.02777777777777777, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.02777777777777777, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59497,7 +59449,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Mark Rutte, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Sánchez, Viktor Orbán, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Mark Rutte, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Sánchez, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?", @@ -59506,68 +59458,68 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.5585585585585585, + "probability": 0.5943396226415094, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.24324324324324323, + "probability": 0.16037735849056603, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.09009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.018018018018018018, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Verónika Mendoza", + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Verónika Mendoza, Keiko Fujimori, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Keiko Fujimori, Verónika Mendoza, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?", @@ -59576,47 +59528,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.7129629629629629, + "probability": 0.7339449541284404, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.1574074074074074, + "probability": 0.14678899082568805, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59631,7 +59583,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59641,12 +59593,12 @@ }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Grant Houston", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59671,22 +59623,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Shambaugh", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rahm Emanuel", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59696,13 +59638,23 @@ }, { "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Shambaugh", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Dan Kritenbrink, David Shambaugh, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill, Charlene Barshefsky" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill, Charlene Barshefsky, David Shambaugh, Dan Kritenbrink" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?", @@ -59711,7 +59663,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59726,7 +59678,7 @@ }, { "name": "Chris Carr", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -59761,28 +59713,28 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.7619047619047619, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.7757009345794393, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.0857142857142857, + "probability": 0.08411214953271029, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nevada", + "probability": 0.07476635514018692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.05714285714285714, + "probability": 0.06542056074766357, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, South Carolina" + "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina" }, { "title": "Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?", @@ -59811,12 +59763,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.06000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59831,57 +59783,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.4311926605504587, + "probability": 0.38461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.3211009174311926, + "probability": 0.36538461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.10091743119266054, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.07339449541284403, + "probability": 0.06730769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vicky Hartzler", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Brunner", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59896,37 +59848,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.4326923076923077, + "probability": 0.3796296296296296, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.28846153846153844, + "probability": 0.28703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.17307692307692307, + "probability": 0.21296296296296297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.06730769230769232, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Forest", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burr", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Meadows", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59961,12 +59913,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60031,7 +59983,7 @@ }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60041,17 +59993,17 @@ }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60071,7 +60023,7 @@ }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60086,12 +60038,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60106,12 +60058,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60126,12 +60078,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60146,22 +60098,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Dem. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.3551401869158879, + "probability": 0.35779816513761475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rep. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.2990654205607477, + "probability": 0.2935779816513762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "R House, D Senate", - "probability": 0.23364485981308414, + "probability": 0.23853211009174316, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "D House, R Senate", - "probability": 0.11214953271028039, + "probability": 0.11009174311926606, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60181,7 +60133,7 @@ }, { "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60189,31 +60141,31 @@ "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Alessandra Biaggi", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Jumaane Williams", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Bill de Blasio", "probability": 0.01, @@ -60237,7 +60189,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Kirsten Gillibrand, Alessandra Biaggi, Andrew Yang, Jumaane Williams, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?", @@ -60246,12 +60198,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60301,17 +60253,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8461538461538461, + "probability": 0.8446601941747572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.11538461538461538, + "probability": 0.11650485436893203, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "probability": 0.038834951456310676, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60326,42 +60278,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.6972477064220183, + "probability": 0.6944444444444444, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shontel Brown", - "probability": 0.2477064220183486, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barnes Jr.", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bryan Flannery", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Johnson", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tariq Shabazz", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shirley Smith", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dennis Kucinich", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60376,12 +60328,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Kind", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alex Lasry", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60406,12 +60358,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60471,12 +60423,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bill Peduto", - "probability": 0.9705882352941176, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Gainey", - "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60551,7 +60503,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1.6M", - "probability": 0.05769230769230769, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60561,12 +60513,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.625M to 1.65M", - "probability": 0.05769230769230769, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.65M to 1.675M", - "probability": 0.08653846153846154, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60576,12 +60528,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.7M to 1.725M", - "probability": 0.28846153846153844, + "probability": 0.25961538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.725M to 1.75M", - "probability": 0.22115384615384615, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60591,12 +60543,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.775M to 1.8M", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.8M or more", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60611,12 +60563,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60631,33 +60583,33 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Chuck Grassley", - "probability": 0.38095238095238093, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat Grassley", - "probability": 0.2571428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Carlin", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Whitaker", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Carlin", + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ashley Hinson", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Jim Carlin, Matthew Whitaker, Ashley Hinson" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Matthew Whitaker, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson" }, { "title": "How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?", @@ -60666,37 +60618,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5", - "probability": 0.3333333333333333, + "probability": 0.308411214953271, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7", - "probability": 0.5855855855855856, + "probability": 0.6074766355140186, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9", - "probability": 0.04504504504504504, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or more", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60711,7 +60663,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Johnson", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60726,7 +60678,7 @@ }, { "name": "Scott Walker", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -60746,52 +60698,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "59 or fewer", - "probability": 0.5315315315315313, + "probability": 0.28828828828828834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 to 62", - "probability": 0.054054054054054036, + "probability": 0.06306306306306307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 to 65", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.03603603603603604, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 68", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.05405405405405406, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 to 71", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.06306306306306307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "72 to 74", - "probability": 0.054054054054054036, + "probability": 0.07207207207207209, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 to 77", - "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "probability": 0.0900900900900901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 80", - "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "probability": 0.09909909909909911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "81 to 83", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.09909909909909911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "84 or more", - "probability": 0.054054054054054036, + "probability": 0.13513513513513514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60804,50 +60756,50 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7196/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-NM-01-special-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ + { + "name": "Georgene Louis", + "probability": 0.3557692307692307, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Melanie Stansbury", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.2788461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Antoinette Lopez", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Georgene Louis", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.23076923076923075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Victor Reyes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.06730769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Randi McGinn", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Patricia Caballero", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Selinda Guerrero", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Fernández", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Melanie Stansbury, Antoinette Lopez, Georgene Louis, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Georgene Louis, Melanie Stansbury, Antoinette Lopez, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández" }, { "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", @@ -60856,12 +60808,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.21999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60876,28 +60828,28 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brian Kemp", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vernon Jones", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vernon Jones", + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, Doug Collins, Vernon Jones, Herschel Walker" }, { "title": "What will be the margin in the LA-02 House special election runoff?", @@ -60906,52 +60858,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 2%", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.09615384615384617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2% to 4%", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.10576923076923078, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4% to 6%", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09615384615384617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6% to 8%", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08653846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8% to 10%", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09615384615384617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10% to 12%", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.09615384615384617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12% to 14%", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.08653846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14% to 16%", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08653846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16% to 18%", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07692307692307694, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18% or more", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.1730769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60966,12 +60918,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 1, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -60986,52 +60938,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 52", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53 to 55", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 to 58", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.21296296296296297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "59 to 61", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.2222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.2037037037037037, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.12962962962962962, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.046296296296296294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 or more", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.046296296296296294, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61046,42 +60998,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61091,7 +61043,7 @@ }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61106,52 +61058,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.1188118811881188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.5742574257425742, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.18811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61351,27 +61303,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.005523040145082845, + "probability": 0.0054093331180364934, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.017888055395268318, + "probability": 0.01751978039722267, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.05316956557579754, + "probability": 0.052074923300500564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.34638529387519573, + "probability": 0.3703374777975133, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.07171708845107574, + "probability": 0.07024059421927982, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61391,7 +61343,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.0329733740004946, + "probability": 0.03229452607782981, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61426,7 +61378,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ursula Von der Leyen", - "probability": 0.025719231720385784, + "probability": 0.02518973034070725, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61441,22 +61393,22 @@ }, { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.35842057538537625, + "probability": 0.3229452607782981, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.05498310114582474, + "probability": 0.0538511222347812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.0027203033550408044, + "probability": 0.0026642984014209592, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.030500370950457503, + "probability": 0.04747295333440982, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -61862,12 +61814,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.04501707544240919, + "probability": 0.04372298723489799, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.05174376487633241, + "probability": 0.05025630716654941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61877,37 +61829,37 @@ }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.07389009624340268, + "probability": 0.10051261433309883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.0985201283245369, + "probability": 0.09568800884511007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Buckland", - "probability": 0.08279002380213185, + "probability": 0.08041009146647905, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ben Wallace", - "probability": 0.12315016040567113, + "probability": 0.1196100110563876, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Hancock", - "probability": 0.11249094484114663, + "probability": 0.10925721178007841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alok Sharma", - "probability": 0.07958191037979924, + "probability": 0.077294200422153, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Truss", - "probability": 0.055986753596191666, + "probability": 0.05437732435420647, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61917,7 +61869,7 @@ }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.15223015626616995, + "probability": 0.14785405568398838, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61927,7 +61879,7 @@ }, { "name": "Robert Jenrick", - "probability": 0.07958191037979924, + "probability": 0.077294200422153, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -61962,7 +61914,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amanda Milling", - "probability": 0.04501707544240919, + "probability": 0.04372298723489799, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62052,22 +62004,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.8215239268843705, + "probability": 0.7202247191011235, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.1283631135756829, + "probability": 0.2340823970037453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.03542821934688847, + "probability": 0.03230337078651685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.014684740193058122, + "probability": 0.013389513108614231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62444,17 +62396,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2023 or earlier", - "probability": 0.4574565416285453, + "probability": 0.4925623091321052, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024", - "probability": 0.23760292772186642, + "probability": 0.17909565560043345, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2025 or later", - "probability": 0.30494053064958826, + "probability": 0.3283420352674613, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62469,61 +62421,61 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9490945674044262, + "probability": 0.9542787780699976, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.02394366197183098, + "probability": 0.021950232652235474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.025150905432595565, + "probability": 0.021950232652235474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62588,12 +62540,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ben Houchen", - "probability": 0.7560150032019028, + "probability": 0.7575454545454545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs", - "probability": 0.24398499679809715, + "probability": 0.24245454545454548, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62638,22 +62590,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.4935064935064935, + "probability": 0.5074626865671642, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3537051184110008, + "probability": 0.36370777690494893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.08488243782361429, + "probability": 0.08728288382648162, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.06790595025889143, + "probability": 0.04154665270140525, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -62668,12 +62620,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.6636937568894679, + "probability": 0.6696525248548085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.33630624311053214, + "probability": 0.33034747514519147, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63098,12 +63050,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5200299513290902, + "probability": 0.5094983400959056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47997004867090975, + "probability": 0.49050165990409444, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63558,17 +63510,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.9351704996034894, + "probability": 0.8999332252217878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.02914353687549564, + "probability": 0.028045406849184395, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.006641554321966694, + "probability": 0.006391300200324335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -63578,17 +63530,17 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.02478191911181602, + "probability": 0.06152818849565964, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.000991276764472641, + "probability": 0.0009539254030334829, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0032712133227597146, + "probability": 0.0031479538300104933, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -63998,17 +63950,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "GERB", - "probability": 0.6037286115603984, + "probability": 0.6229853405685591, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "BSP", - "probability": 0.3669021877926279, + "probability": 0.34907264922653275, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "ITN", - "probability": 0.029369200646973695, + "probability": 0.027942010204908073, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64048,12 +64000,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6864825123411405, + "probability": 0.7037808871688002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31351748765885934, + "probability": 0.2962191128311997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64268,12 +64220,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4744868035190616, + "probability": 0.4613851519681116, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5255131964809384, + "probability": 0.5386148480318884, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64408,12 +64360,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18237860394537178, + "probability": 0.1719728134501878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8176213960546281, + "probability": 0.8280271865498122, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64588,12 +64540,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.5528596187175043, + "probability": 0.5194617972128784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.4471403812824957, + "probability": 0.4805382027871216, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -64813,12 +64765,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.46785866326096215, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.5321413367390379, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65248,12 +65200,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5714574694042682, + "probability": 0.6243461299760618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.4285425305957317, + "probability": 0.3756538700239383, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -65543,27 +65495,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5097352024922117, + "probability": 0.5319148936170212, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.4549260124610591, + "probability": 0.4375661885048618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.013921339563862926, + "probability": 0.013767209011264077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.0019470404984423674, + "probability": 0.0019254837777991718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party", - "probability": 0.019470404984423675, + "probability": 0.014826225089053622, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65613,27 +65565,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "60 or fewer", - "probability": 0.13477606951871657, + "probability": 0.27236315086782376, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "61–64", - "probability": 0.22894385026737968, + "probability": 0.19253741831213547, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65–68", - "probability": 0.28810160427807485, + "probability": 0.24228796289789892, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69–72", - "probability": 0.23211898395721928, + "probability": 0.19520764528142787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or more", - "probability": 0.11605949197860964, + "probability": 0.09760382264071393, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65753,17 +65705,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.5926351112681032, + "probability": 0.5638074435016383, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.3199399505475097, + "probability": 0.30437704780307484, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.022077004592016957, + "probability": 0.02335545660757792, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -65783,12 +65735,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.045302013422818796, + "probability": 0.0893892296059817, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.020045920169551396, + "probability": 0.019070822481727295, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65803,22 +65755,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.40705734089476997, + "probability": 0.4308085220780966, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.25183784919134633, + "probability": 0.24175011761543114, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.13211510186935518, + "probability": 0.1268230391827408, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.20898970804452846, + "probability": 0.20061832112373146, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65868,17 +65820,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.8279869381482905, + "probability": 0.8310453030005884, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.11717249327698809, + "probability": 0.14012551480682486, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.05484056857472148, + "probability": 0.028829182192586785, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -65963,12 +65915,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36201076544110933, + "probability": 0.6044042127252154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6379892345588906, + "probability": 0.3955957872747846, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json index 154c65e..a5ceca9 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.json +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json @@ -1,82 +1,67 @@ [ { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021", + "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n", + "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Texas", + "probability": "0.09471882941566854900783987701471025", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Florida", + "probability": "0.8862514475368737605999119046633115", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "California", + "probability": "0.01902972304745769039224821832197825", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "276", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5871432055669133105154549423449486", + "probability": "0.3325426078486210391403659153611369", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4128567944330866894845450576550514", + "probability": "0.6674573921513789608596340846388631", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "317", + "numforecasts": "98", "stars": 4 }, { - "title": "Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march", + "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).\n", + "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4391425697965956603305816025607775", + "probability": "0.1718025008310863946779364090448349", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5608574302034043396694183974392225", + "probability": "0.8281974991689136053220635909551651", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-30-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 70", - "probability": "0.1672746246072319080776838488635544", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "70-80", - "probability": "0.2476901256544144696879613915347041", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "81-90", - "probability": "0.1952432196242796903539219437959104", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "91-100", - "probability": "0.1164785241546611526816670444449205", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "101-110", - "probability": "0.1216864057709885832664494211185656", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 110", - "probability": "0.1516271001884241959323163502423449", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "299", + "numforecasts": "451", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -87,352 +72,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9020409953503909000562711280753918", + "probability": "0.8978542963687510509806282313940195", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.09795900464960909994372887192460815", + "probability": "0.1021457036312489490193717686059805", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "791", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2633073732555388130695659666251378", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7366926267444611869304340333748622", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "421", + "numforecasts": "797", "stars": 4 }, { - "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021", + "title": "Will the Ever Given be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ever-given-be-dislodged-from-the-suez-canal-by-march-30", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Texas", - "probability": "0.1883710726564277022850745484333587", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Florida", - "probability": "0.7262394404243919097345492332829238", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "California", - "probability": "0.08538948691918038798037621828371755", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "233", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Ever Given container ship (IMO: 9811000, MMSI 353136000) will be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. For the purpose of this market, dislodged from the Suez Canal will mean that the Ever Given has a latitude higher than 30.03000 N (i.e. be at least half a mile above where it got stuck) or lower than 30.01000 N degrees (i.e. be at least half a mile below where it got stuck), by the resolution date, March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this for this market will be the Ever Green’s latitude and longitude coordinates, as tracked by Vessel Finder and displayed in their “Position & Voyage Data” table (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4530636632783070484902652045781653", + "probability": "0.4698896746217403382421058389612625", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5469363367216929515097347954218347", + "probability": "0.5301103253782596617578941610387375", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "80", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3751565387443145112653164613151741", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6248434612556854887346835386848259", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "24", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", - "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [] - }, - { - "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5063624076489165994445641010569313", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4936375923510834005554358989430687", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "79", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.001003847031198783653878237328185352", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9989961529688012163461217626718146", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "4270", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2401966918615018843983652361027869", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7598033081384981156016347638972131", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "7240", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.07809788734415578259133846771486672", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9219021126558442174086615322851333", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "390", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05203301629799111589572981466929816", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9479669837020088841042701853307018", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "83", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.02583516387131374839338592849894705", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.974164836128686251606614071501053", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "712", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1239743371249700020666953031210272", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8760256628750299979333046968789728", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4464472380436790440847039771157174", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5535527619563209559152960228842826", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "2303", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05082943790130478653184589035805252", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9491705620986952134681541096419475", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "71", - "stars": 2 - }, - { - "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1961684427606103841153688323774687", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8038315572393896158846311676225313", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "70", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05860162608821927934180182205734666", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9413983739117807206581981779426533", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "93", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.696874352742622330981106127626817", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.303125647257377669018893872373183", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "51", + "numforecasts": "383", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -443,16 +112,311 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5084922355951987486962057308046653", + "probability": "0.4526971438909513404307955024326983", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4915077644048012513037942691953347", + "probability": "0.5473028561090486595692044975673017", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "49", + "numforecasts": "57", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4426875615958327161228189497385512", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5573124384041672838771810502614488", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "91", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0007833069340194859579063580919656911", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9992166930659805140420936419080343", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "187", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.11325563039183722103275617002183", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.88674436960816277896724382997817", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "7773", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0005773167438572659616369798800062558", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9994226832561427340383630201199937", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4284", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0785186989419276422486486868372132", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9214813010580723577513513131627868", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "399", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.0463958172809963982245937485905163", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9536041827190036017754062514094837", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "85", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.01556978274231434901849274397707455", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9844302172576856509815072560229254", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "720", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1199447741739855272384936981505642", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8800552258260144727615063018494358", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "73", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6720667278394123702971286257476096", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3279332721605876297028713742523904", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "2618", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.01019374154946546974525356766539572", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9898062584505345302547464323346043", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "87", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "$80M or Less", + "probability": "0.09311545717991747005375998978049056", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$81-105M", + "probability": "0.4546994257057043229946384853760889", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$106-120M", + "probability": "0.2157457711612491388147202046582125", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$121-135M", + "probability": "0.1199694628723149212877599749935941", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$136M or More", + "probability": "0.1164698830808141468491213451916138", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "144", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.1645269193840114258022893873779148", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.8354730806159885741977106126220852", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "78", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.05850935819533382463369476425064051", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9414906418046661753663052357493595", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "96", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7288981168376345387653725396207922", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2711018831623654612346274603792078", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "54", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -463,16 +427,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7517224139225624292201826311776367", + "probability": "0.7158133605584465880501470012740285", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2482775860774375707798173688223633", + "probability": "0.2841866394415534119498529987259715", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "48", + "numforecasts": "56", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2791105028801385312747041678913065", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7208894971198614687252958321086935", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "30", "stars": 4 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json index fcea82b..0beb26e 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.json +++ b/data/predictit-questions.json @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -54,12 +54,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5445544554455446, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.45544554455445546, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -73,12 +73,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.5825242718446602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.4174757281553398, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -92,47 +92,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.04672897196261682, + "probability": 0.0660377358490566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.8878504672897195, + "probability": 0.8679245283018868, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,12 +146,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -165,12 +165,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -203,12 +203,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -260,12 +260,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8712871287128713, + "probability": 0.8811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.1188118811881188, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -279,82 +279,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4956521739130434, + "probability": 0.4999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.21739130434782605, + "probability": 0.21929824561403508, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.0608695652173913, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.05217391304347825, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.043478260869565216, + "probability": 0.05263157894736841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dianne Morales", + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paperboy Prince", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Fernando Mateo", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -387,12 +387,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -425,12 +425,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -444,12 +444,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6078431372549019, + "probability": 0.6039603960396039, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.39215686274509803, + "probability": 0.39603960396039606, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -501,12 +501,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -520,12 +520,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -539,7 +539,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -558,22 +558,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8640776699029126, + "probability": 0.8653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy", - "probability": 0.10679611650485436, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Fairfax", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -587,12 +587,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -684,82 +684,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.3739130434782608, + "probability": 0.3833333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.31304347826086953, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.07826086956521738, + "probability": 0.2833333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.06956521739130433, + "probability": 0.10833333333333332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.03478260869565217, + "name": "Annalena Baerbock", + "probability": 0.08333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.03478260869565217, + "probability": 0.033333333333333326, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "name": "Olaf Scholz", + "probability": 0.024999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jens Spahn", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -773,37 +773,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.4909090909090909, + "probability": 0.5046728971962617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.24545454545454545, + "probability": 0.24299065420560748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.13636363636363635, + "probability": 0.14018691588785046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.09999999999999999, + "probability": 0.08411214953271028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neil Chatterjee", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmett Hanger", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Stanley", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -836,82 +836,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.23364485981308405, + "probability": 0.22807017543859642, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.1775700934579439, + "probability": 0.17543859649122803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.09345794392523363, + "probability": 0.08771929824561402, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.09345794392523363, + "probability": 0.08771929824561402, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, + "probability": 0.052631578947368404, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, + "probability": 0.052631578947368404, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, + "probability": 0.04385964912280701, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, + "probability": 0.04385964912280701, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Cotton", + "probability": 0.035087719298245605, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, + "probability": 0.035087719298245605, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.028037383177570086, + "probability": 0.035087719298245605, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, + "probability": 0.026315789473684202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, + "name": "Tucker Carlson", + "probability": 0.026315789473684202, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", + "probability": 0.026315789473684202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, + "probability": 0.026315789473684202, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.017543859649122803, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -925,37 +925,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.3899999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.35999999999999993, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.06999999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pete Buttigieg", + "probability": 0.059999999999999984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernie Sanders", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.039999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hillary Clinton", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.029999999999999992, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1013,37 +1013,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.5046728971962617, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.24299065420560748, + "probability": 0.25471698113207547, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07476635514018691, + "probability": 0.07547169811320754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.07476635514018691, + "probability": 0.07547169811320754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.06542056074766356, + "probability": 0.056603773584905655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1095,12 +1095,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1152,12 +1152,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1171,12 +1171,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.7920792079207921, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.2079207920792079, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1190,67 +1190,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.3211009174311926, + "probability": 0.3364485981308411, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.30275229357798167, + "probability": 0.29906542056074764, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.2110091743119266, + "probability": 0.205607476635514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.045871559633027525, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.027522935779816512, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1283,12 +1283,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1321,12 +1321,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1340,12 +1340,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.6017699115044247, + "probability": 0.584070796460177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.2831858407079646, + "probability": 0.30088495575221236, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1424,7 +1424,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8971962616822429, + "probability": 0.8878504672897195, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1437,11 +1442,6 @@ "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", "probability": 0.009345794392523364, @@ -1502,52 +1502,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.45614035087719296, + "probability": 0.47058823529411764, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.3596491228070175, + "probability": 0.34453781512605036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.08771929824561403, + "probability": 0.08403361344537814, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.03508771929824561, + "probability": 0.03361344537815126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.025210084033613443, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1561,12 +1561,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1599,47 +1599,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.35514018691588783, + "probability": 0.3584905660377358, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.32710280373831774, + "probability": 0.32075471698113206, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.09345794392523364, + "probability": 0.09433962264150944, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.037383177570093455, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyrus Vance", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Florence", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Crotty", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1658,12 +1658,12 @@ }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1673,32 +1673,32 @@ }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1731,62 +1731,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.5865384615384615, + "probability": 0.6074766355140186, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.2788461538461538, + "probability": 0.27102803738317754, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1800,82 +1800,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.6923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.17307692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Juan Arteaga", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Einer Elhauge", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Juan Arteaga", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gigi Sohn", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Edward Smith", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Einer Elhauge", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Douglas Melamed", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1889,17 +1889,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.8613861386138614, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1972,52 +1972,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.4038461538461538, + "probability": 0.4117647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.125, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.09615384615384616, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.09615384615384616, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.08653846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.06730769230769232, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.058823529411764705, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vladimir Putin", + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2031,27 +2031,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.6534653465346535, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.3069306930693069, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emilia Sykes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joyce Beatty", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nan Whaley", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2065,32 +2065,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6635514018691588, + "probability": 0.6666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.13333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.11214953271028036, + "probability": 0.11428571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.06542056074766356, + "probability": 0.06666666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2104,52 +2104,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.2803738317757009, + "probability": 0.2935779816513761, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.24299065420560748, + "probability": 0.2201834862385321, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.21495327102803738, + "probability": 0.2110091743119266, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.18691588785046728, + "probability": 0.19266055045871558, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2216,12 +2216,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.6633663366336634, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33663366336633666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2254,67 +2254,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.35185185185185186, + "probability": 0.3592233009708737, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.35185185185185186, + "probability": 0.320388349514563, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.07407407407407407, + "probability": 0.06796116504854367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Thea Lee", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.06796116504854367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.058252427184466, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Bernstein", + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sonal Shah", + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ann O'Leary", + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Gene Sperling", + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Neera Tanden", + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009708737864077667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2420,12 +2420,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2439,7 +2439,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.6018518518518517, + "probability": 0.6111111111111109, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2459,7 +2459,12 @@ }, { "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.04629629629629629, + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2474,12 +2479,7 @@ }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.02777777777777777, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.02777777777777777, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2498,62 +2498,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.5585585585585585, + "probability": 0.5943396226415094, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.24324324324324323, + "probability": 0.16037735849056603, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.09009009009009009, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.027027027027027025, + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.018018018018018018, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Verónika Mendoza", + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2567,47 +2567,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.7129629629629629, + "probability": 0.7339449541284404, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.1574074074074074, + "probability": 0.14678899082568805, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.027777777777777776, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2621,7 +2621,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2631,12 +2631,12 @@ }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Grant Houston", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2660,22 +2660,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "David Shambaugh", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rahm Emanuel", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2685,6 +2675,16 @@ }, { "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "David Shambaugh", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } @@ -2699,7 +2699,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2714,7 +2714,7 @@ }, { "name": "Chris Carr", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2748,22 +2748,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.7619047619047619, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.7757009345794393, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.0857142857142857, + "probability": 0.08411214953271029, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nevada", + "probability": 0.07476635514018692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.05714285714285714, + "probability": 0.06542056074766357, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2796,12 +2796,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.93, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06999999999999995, + "probability": 0.06000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2815,57 +2815,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.4311926605504587, + "probability": 0.38461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.3211009174311926, + "probability": 0.36538461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.10091743119266054, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.07339449541284403, + "probability": 0.06730769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vicky Hartzler", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Brunner", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2879,37 +2879,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.4326923076923077, + "probability": 0.3796296296296296, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.28846153846153844, + "probability": 0.28703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.17307692307692307, + "probability": 0.21296296296296297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.06730769230769232, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Forest", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burr", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Meadows", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2942,12 +2942,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3010,7 +3010,7 @@ }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3020,17 +3020,17 @@ }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3050,7 +3050,7 @@ }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3064,12 +3064,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3083,12 +3083,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3102,12 +3102,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3121,22 +3121,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Dem. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.3551401869158879, + "probability": 0.35779816513761475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rep. House & Senate", - "probability": 0.2990654205607477, + "probability": 0.2935779816513762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "R House, D Senate", - "probability": 0.23364485981308414, + "probability": 0.23853211009174316, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "D House, R Senate", - "probability": 0.11214953271028039, + "probability": 0.11009174311926606, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3155,7 +3155,7 @@ }, { "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3163,31 +3163,31 @@ "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Alessandra Biaggi", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Jumaane Williams", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Bill de Blasio", "probability": 0.01, @@ -3219,12 +3219,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3272,17 +3272,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8461538461538461, + "probability": 0.8446601941747572, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.11538461538461538, + "probability": 0.11650485436893203, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "probability": 0.038834951456310676, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3296,42 +3296,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.6972477064220183, + "probability": 0.6944444444444444, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shontel Brown", - "probability": 0.2477064220183486, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barnes Jr.", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bryan Flannery", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Johnson", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tariq Shabazz", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shirley Smith", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dennis Kucinich", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3345,12 +3345,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Kind", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alex Lasry", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3374,12 +3374,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3437,12 +3437,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bill Peduto", - "probability": 0.9705882352941176, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Gainey", - "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3515,7 +3515,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1.6M", - "probability": 0.05769230769230769, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3525,12 +3525,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.625M to 1.65M", - "probability": 0.05769230769230769, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.65M to 1.675M", - "probability": 0.08653846153846154, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3540,12 +3540,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.7M to 1.725M", - "probability": 0.28846153846153844, + "probability": 0.25961538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.725M to 1.75M", - "probability": 0.22115384615384615, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3555,12 +3555,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.775M to 1.8M", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.8M or more", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3574,12 +3574,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3593,27 +3593,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Chuck Grassley", - "probability": 0.38095238095238093, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat Grassley", - "probability": 0.2571428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Carlin", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Whitaker", - "probability": 0.13333333333333333, + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Carlin", + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ashley Hinson", - "probability": 0.09523809523809523, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3627,37 +3627,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5", - "probability": 0.3333333333333333, + "probability": 0.308411214953271, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7", - "probability": 0.5855855855855856, + "probability": 0.6074766355140186, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9", - "probability": 0.04504504504504504, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or more", - "probability": 0.009009009009009009, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3671,7 +3671,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Johnson", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3686,7 +3686,7 @@ }, { "name": "Scott Walker", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3705,52 +3705,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "59 or fewer", - "probability": 0.5315315315315313, + "probability": 0.28828828828828834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 to 62", - "probability": 0.054054054054054036, + "probability": 0.06306306306306307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 to 65", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.03603603603603604, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 68", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.05405405405405406, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 to 71", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.06306306306306307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "72 to 74", - "probability": 0.054054054054054036, + "probability": 0.07207207207207209, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 to 77", - "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "probability": 0.0900900900900901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 80", - "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "probability": 0.09909909909909911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "81 to 83", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.09909909909909911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "84 or more", - "probability": 0.054054054054054036, + "probability": 0.13513513513513514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3762,44 +3762,44 @@ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7196/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-NM-01-special-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "options": [ + { + "name": "Georgene Louis", + "probability": 0.3557692307692307, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Melanie Stansbury", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.2788461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Antoinette Lopez", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Georgene Louis", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.23076923076923075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Victor Reyes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.06730769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Randi McGinn", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Patricia Caballero", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Selinda Guerrero", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Fernández", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3813,12 +3813,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.21999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3832,22 +3832,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brian Kemp", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Vernon Jones", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Vernon Jones", + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3861,52 +3861,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 2%", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.09615384615384617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2% to 4%", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.10576923076923078, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4% to 6%", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09615384615384617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6% to 8%", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08653846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8% to 10%", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09615384615384617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10% to 12%", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.09615384615384617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12% to 14%", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.08653846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14% to 16%", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08653846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16% to 18%", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07692307692307694, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18% or more", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.1730769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3920,12 +3920,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 1, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3939,52 +3939,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 52", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53 to 55", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 to 58", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.21296296296296297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "59 to 61", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.2222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.2037037037037037, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.12962962962962962, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.046296296296296294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 or more", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.046296296296296294, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3998,42 +3998,42 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -4043,7 +4043,7 @@ }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4057,52 +4057,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.1188118811881188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.5742574257425742, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.18811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json index db4bb03..4fbea60 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.json +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json @@ -149,27 +149,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.005523040145082845, + "probability": 0.0054093331180364934, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.017888055395268318, + "probability": 0.01751978039722267, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.05316956557579754, + "probability": 0.052074923300500564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.34638529387519573, + "probability": 0.3703374777975133, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.07171708845107574, + "probability": 0.07024059421927982, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.0329733740004946, + "probability": 0.03229452607782981, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ursula Von der Leyen", - "probability": 0.025719231720385784, + "probability": 0.02518973034070725, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -239,22 +239,22 @@ }, { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.35842057538537625, + "probability": 0.3229452607782981, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.05498310114582474, + "probability": 0.0538511222347812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.0027203033550408044, + "probability": 0.0026642984014209592, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.030500370950457503, + "probability": 0.04747295333440982, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -652,12 +652,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.04501707544240919, + "probability": 0.04372298723489799, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.05174376487633241, + "probability": 0.05025630716654941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -667,37 +667,37 @@ }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.07389009624340268, + "probability": 0.10051261433309883, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.0985201283245369, + "probability": 0.09568800884511007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Buckland", - "probability": 0.08279002380213185, + "probability": 0.08041009146647905, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ben Wallace", - "probability": 0.12315016040567113, + "probability": 0.1196100110563876, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Hancock", - "probability": 0.11249094484114663, + "probability": 0.10925721178007841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alok Sharma", - "probability": 0.07958191037979924, + "probability": 0.077294200422153, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elizabeth Truss", - "probability": 0.055986753596191666, + "probability": 0.05437732435420647, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -707,7 +707,7 @@ }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.15223015626616995, + "probability": 0.14785405568398838, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -717,7 +717,7 @@ }, { "name": "Robert Jenrick", - "probability": 0.07958191037979924, + "probability": 0.077294200422153, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -752,7 +752,7 @@ }, { "name": "Amanda Milling", - "probability": 0.04501707544240919, + "probability": 0.04372298723489799, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -838,22 +838,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.8215239268843705, + "probability": 0.7202247191011235, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.1283631135756829, + "probability": 0.2340823970037453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.03542821934688847, + "probability": 0.03230337078651685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.014684740193058122, + "probability": 0.013389513108614231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1224,17 +1224,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2023 or earlier", - "probability": 0.4574565416285453, + "probability": 0.4925623091321052, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024", - "probability": 0.23760292772186642, + "probability": 0.17909565560043345, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2025 or later", - "probability": 0.30494053064958826, + "probability": 0.3283420352674613, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1248,61 +1248,61 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9490945674044262, + "probability": 0.9542787780699976, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.02394366197183098, + "probability": 0.021950232652235474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.025150905432595565, + "probability": 0.021950232652235474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.00010060362173038226, + "probability": 0.0001011531458628363, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1364,12 +1364,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ben Houchen", - "probability": 0.7560150032019028, + "probability": 0.7575454545454545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs", - "probability": 0.24398499679809715, + "probability": 0.24245454545454548, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1412,22 +1412,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.4935064935064935, + "probability": 0.5074626865671642, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3537051184110008, + "probability": 0.36370777690494893, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.08488243782361429, + "probability": 0.08728288382648162, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.06790595025889143, + "probability": 0.04154665270140525, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1441,12 +1441,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.6636937568894679, + "probability": 0.6696525248548085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.33630624311053214, + "probability": 0.33034747514519147, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1860,12 +1860,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5200299513290902, + "probability": 0.5094983400959056, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47997004867090975, + "probability": 0.49050165990409444, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2312,17 +2312,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.9351704996034894, + "probability": 0.8999332252217878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.02914353687549564, + "probability": 0.028045406849184395, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.006641554321966694, + "probability": 0.006391300200324335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2332,17 +2332,17 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.02478191911181602, + "probability": 0.06152818849565964, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.000991276764472641, + "probability": 0.0009539254030334829, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0032712133227597146, + "probability": 0.0031479538300104933, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2735,17 +2735,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "GERB", - "probability": 0.6037286115603984, + "probability": 0.6229853405685591, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "BSP", - "probability": 0.3669021877926279, + "probability": 0.34907264922653275, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "ITN", - "probability": 0.029369200646973695, + "probability": 0.027942010204908073, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2783,12 +2783,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6864825123411405, + "probability": 0.7037808871688002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31351748765885934, + "probability": 0.2962191128311997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2994,12 +2994,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4744868035190616, + "probability": 0.4613851519681116, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5255131964809384, + "probability": 0.5386148480318884, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3128,12 +3128,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18237860394537178, + "probability": 0.1719728134501878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8176213960546281, + "probability": 0.8280271865498122, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3302,12 +3302,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.5528596187175043, + "probability": 0.5194617972128784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.4471403812824957, + "probability": 0.4805382027871216, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3517,12 +3517,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.46785866326096215, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.5321413367390379, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3931,12 +3931,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5714574694042682, + "probability": 0.6243461299760618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.4285425305957317, + "probability": 0.3756538700239383, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -4212,27 +4212,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.5097352024922117, + "probability": 0.5319148936170212, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.4549260124610591, + "probability": 0.4375661885048618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.013921339563862926, + "probability": 0.013767209011264077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.0019470404984423674, + "probability": 0.0019254837777991718, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Northern Independence Party", - "probability": 0.019470404984423675, + "probability": 0.014826225089053622, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4280,27 +4280,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "60 or fewer", - "probability": 0.13477606951871657, + "probability": 0.27236315086782376, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "61–64", - "probability": 0.22894385026737968, + "probability": 0.19253741831213547, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65–68", - "probability": 0.28810160427807485, + "probability": 0.24228796289789892, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69–72", - "probability": 0.23211898395721928, + "probability": 0.19520764528142787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or more", - "probability": 0.11605949197860964, + "probability": 0.09760382264071393, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4414,17 +4414,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.5926351112681032, + "probability": 0.5638074435016383, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.3199399505475097, + "probability": 0.30437704780307484, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.022077004592016957, + "probability": 0.02335545660757792, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -4444,12 +4444,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.045302013422818796, + "probability": 0.0893892296059817, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.020045920169551396, + "probability": 0.019070822481727295, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4463,22 +4463,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.40705734089476997, + "probability": 0.4308085220780966, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.25183784919134633, + "probability": 0.24175011761543114, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.13211510186935518, + "probability": 0.1268230391827408, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.20898970804452846, + "probability": 0.20061832112373146, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4526,17 +4526,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.8279869381482905, + "probability": 0.8310453030005884, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.11717249327698809, + "probability": 0.14012551480682486, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.05484056857472148, + "probability": 0.028829182192586785, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4618,12 +4618,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36201076544110933, + "probability": 0.6044042127252154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6379892345588906, + "probability": 0.3955957872747846, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ],