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"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0588,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.37810000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.2469,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","23",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.030699999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.4836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.28859999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.0721,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","20",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1376,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.3271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.0447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","92",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.060599999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.3833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.24170000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","25",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.0313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.48560000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.2869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.0713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","22",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1361,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.3283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.16949999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.0447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","93",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.0527,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2346,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.35100000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.135,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","74",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.061399999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3336,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.10980000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","90",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.061399999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3336,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.31170000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","91",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.060899999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12269999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.33549999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.2255,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","33",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.311,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
","99",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.3107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.11380000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
","100",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.0526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.2704,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23370000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.2844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","41",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
","87",2
","88",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.3218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.3547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.3235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry
","77",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.08380000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.3482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.2515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.1321,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","52",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
","203",3
","206",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $20 billion"",""probability"":0.10869999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $30 billion"",""probability"":0.3256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 billion and $40 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32030000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $50 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $50 billion"",""probability"":0.08900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","68",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12140000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2569,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.5717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
","163",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.048799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.5742,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
","165",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $260 billion"",""probability"":0.0759,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $260 billion and $300 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19210000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $300 billion but less than or equal to $340 billion"",""probability"":0.3833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $340 billion but less than or equal to $380 billion"",""probability"":0.2328,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $380 billion"",""probability"":0.1159,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","69",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $3.9 billion"",""probability"":0.0681,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.9 billion but less than or equal to $4.5 billion"",""probability"":0.1567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $4.5 billion and $5.1 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.29359999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $5.1 billion and $5.7 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31829999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.7 billion"",""probability"":0.16329999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","76",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $2.2 billion"",""probability"":0.08869999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.2 billion but less than or equal to $2.7 billion"",""probability"":0.2748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31129999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.2 billion and $3.7 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19940000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.7 billion"",""probability"":0.1258,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","62",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $2.2 billion"",""probability"":0.0922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.2 billion but less than or equal to $2.7 billion"",""probability"":0.2756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.2 billion and $3.7 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1978,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.7 billion"",""probability"":0.1234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","63",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2078,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.1067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","164",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.0762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.2833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.3323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.1613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","94",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.0751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.29100000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.3284,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.15789999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","96",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","146",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.11230000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17800000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2981,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2916,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.1199,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
@ -45,11 +45,11 @@
","97",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.0861,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21960000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion"",""probability"":0.36700000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion"",""probability"":0.2372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $640 billion"",""probability"":0.0902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","92",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1374,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.2119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.26780000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
","178",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.213,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2673,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
","180",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $3 million"",""probability"":0.0464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3 million and $7 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $7 million but less than or equal to $11 million"",""probability"":0.287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $11 million but less than or equal to $15 million"",""probability"":0.2164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $15 million"",""probability"":0.2418,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" A grant is ""surveillance related"" if its abstract includes the term ""surveillance,"" ""facial recognition,"" or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments
","92",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.3508,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30579999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.114,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","91",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 5,000"",""probability"":0.2245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23379999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000"",""probability"":0.2589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500"",""probability"":0.1723,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than12,500"",""probability"":0.1106,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","123",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.34340000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3068,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.1149,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0537,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","92",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 5,000"",""probability"":0.2231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000"",""probability"":0.2606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500"",""probability"":0.17190000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than12,500"",""probability"":0.1104,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","124",3
1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
2 [{"name":"Less than $40 billion","probability":0.0588,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive","probability":0.2231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion","probability":0.37810000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion","probability":0.2469,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion","probability":0.0931,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $40 billion","probability":0.060599999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive","probability":0.2261,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion","probability":0.3833,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion","probability":0.24170000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion","probability":0.0883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" 23 25 2
3 [{"name":"Less than $13 billion","probability":0.030699999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive","probability":0.125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion","probability":0.4836,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion","probability":0.28859999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $25 billion","probability":0.0721,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $13 billion","probability":0.0313,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive","probability":0.125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion","probability":0.48560000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion","probability":0.2869,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $25 billion","probability":0.0713,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" 20 22 2
4 [{"name":"Less than -0.25","probability":0.1376,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive","probability":0.3234,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25","probability":0.3271,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5","probability":0.1672,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.5","probability":0.0447,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than -0.25","probability":0.1361,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive","probability":0.3214,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25","probability":0.3283,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5","probability":0.16949999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.5","probability":0.0447,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." 92 93 2
5 [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.0527,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive","probability":0.2346,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million","probability":0.35100000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million","probability":0.2267,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 million","probability":0.135,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 74 2
6 [{"name":"Less than $30 million","probability":0.061399999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive","probability":0.3336,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million","probability":0.3119,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million","probability":0.1833,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 million","probability":0.10980000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $30 million","probability":0.061399999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive","probability":0.3336,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million","probability":0.31170000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million","probability":0.1841,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 million","probability":0.1093,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 90 91 2
7 [{"name":"Less than 26,000","probability":0.060899999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive","probability":0.12269999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000","probability":0.2555,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000","probability":0.33549999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 32,000","probability":0.2255,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 33 2
8 [{"name":"Less than 800","probability":0.1375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 800 and 4,000","probability":0.4061,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000","probability":0.311,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000","probability":0.1139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000","probability":0.0315,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 800","probability":0.1377,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 800 and 4,000","probability":0.4064,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000","probability":0.3107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000","probability":0.11380000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000","probability":0.0315,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** 99 100 2
9 [{"name":"Less than 0.45%","probability":0.0526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive","probability":0.1589,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%","probability":0.2704,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%","probability":0.23370000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2%","probability":0.2844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today 41 2
10 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** 87 88 2
11 [{"name":"Zero","probability":0.3218,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"One","probability":0.3547,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Two or more","probability":0.3235,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry 77 2
12 [{"name":"Less than 20%","probability":0.08380000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 25%, inclusive","probability":0.1844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%","probability":0.3482,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%","probability":0.2515,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 35%","probability":0.1321,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 52 2
13 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** 203 206 3
14 [{"name":"Less than $20 billion","probability":0.10869999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $30 billion","probability":0.3256,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 billion and $40 billion, inclusive","probability":0.32030000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $40 billion and $50 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $50 billion","probability":0.08900000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 68 2
15 [{"name":"Before February 17, 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive","probability":0.12140000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021","probability":0.2569,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After November 17, 2021","probability":0.5717,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before February 17, 2021","probability":0.048799999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive","probability":0.1204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021","probability":0.2566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After November 17, 2021","probability":0.5742,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** 163 165 3
16 [{"name":"Less than $260 billion","probability":0.0759,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $260 billion and $300 billion, inclusive","probability":0.19210000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $300 billion but less than or equal to $340 billion","probability":0.3833,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $340 billion but less than or equal to $380 billion","probability":0.2328,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $380 billion","probability":0.1159,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 69 2
17 [{"name":"Less than $3.9 billion","probability":0.0681,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.9 billion but less than or equal to $4.5 billion","probability":0.1567,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $4.5 billion and $5.1 billion, inclusive","probability":0.29359999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $5.1 billion and $5.7 billion, inclusive","probability":0.31829999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $5.7 billion","probability":0.16329999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 76 2
18 [{"name":"Less than $2.2 billion","probability":0.08869999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $2.2 billion but less than or equal to $2.7 billion","probability":0.2748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion, inclusive","probability":0.31129999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3.2 billion and $3.7 billion, inclusive","probability":0.19940000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.7 billion","probability":0.1258,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $2.2 billion","probability":0.0922,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $2.2 billion but less than or equal to $2.7 billion","probability":0.2756,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion, inclusive","probability":0.3109,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3.2 billion and $3.7 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1978,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.7 billion","probability":0.1234,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 62 63 2
19 [{"name":"Less than 59%","probability":0.1505,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 59% and 66%, inclusive","probability":0.2078,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%","probability":0.272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%","probability":0.263,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 80%","probability":0.1067,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 164 3
20 [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.0762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.14679999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.2833,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.3323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.1613,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.0751,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.1477,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.29100000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.3284,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.15789999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 94 96 2
21 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today 146 3
22 [{"name":"Less than 59%","probability":0.11230000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 59% and 66%, inclusive","probability":0.17800000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%","probability":0.2981,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%","probability":0.2916,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 80%","probability":0.1199,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 228 3
23 [{"name":"Less than 2%","probability":0.0704,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive","probability":0.2218,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5%","probability":0.4004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5%","probability":0.22149999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6.5%","probability":0.086,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 97 2
24 [{"name":"Less than $400 billion","probability":0.0861,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive","probability":0.21960000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion","probability":0.36700000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion","probability":0.2372,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $640 billion","probability":0.0902,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 92 2
25 [{"name":"Less than 1.5%","probability":0.0646,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive","probability":0.1374,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%","probability":0.2119,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.26780000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6%","probability":0.3184,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.5%","probability":0.0663,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive","probability":0.1401,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%","probability":0.213,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.2673,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6%","probability":0.3134,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field 178 180 3
26 [{"name":"Less than $3 million","probability":0.0464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3 million and $7 million, inclusive","probability":0.2084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $7 million but less than or equal to $11 million","probability":0.287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $11 million but less than or equal to $15 million","probability":0.2164,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $15 million","probability":0.2418,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." A grant is "surveillance related" if its abstract includes the term "surveillance," "facial recognition," or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments 92 2
27 [{"name":"Less than 675","probability":0.3508,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 675 and 750, inclusive","probability":0.30579999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 750 but less than or equal to 825","probability":0.177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 825 but less than or equal to 900","probability":0.114,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 900","probability":0.0525,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 675","probability":0.34340000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 675 and 750, inclusive","probability":0.3068,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 750 but less than or equal to 825","probability":0.1812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 825 but less than or equal to 900","probability":0.1149,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 900","probability":0.0537,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 91 92 2
28 [{"name":"Less than 5,000","probability":0.2245,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive","probability":0.23379999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000","probability":0.2589,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500","probability":0.1723,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than12,500","probability":0.1106,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 5,000","probability":0.2231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive","probability":0.2341,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000","probability":0.2606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500","probability":0.17190000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than12,500","probability":0.1104,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The"Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 123 124 3
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148
data/csetforetell-questions.json
View File

@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $40 billion",
"probability": 0.0588,
"probability": 0.060599999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2231,
"probability": 0.2261,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
"probability": 0.37810000000000005,
"probability": 0.3833,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
"probability": 0.2469,
"probability": 0.24170000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $100 billion",
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"probability": 0.0883,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "23",
"numforecasters": "23",
"numforecasts": "25",
"numforecasters": "25",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -43,7 +43,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $13 billion",
"probability": 0.030699999999999998,
"probability": 0.0313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -53,22 +53,22 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
"probability": 0.4836,
"probability": 0.48560000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
"probability": 0.28859999999999997,
"probability": 0.2869,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $25 billion",
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"probability": 0.0713,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "20",
"numforecasters": "20",
"numforecasts": "22",
"numforecasters": "22",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -79,22 +79,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than -0.25",
"probability": 0.1376,
"probability": 0.1361,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3234,
"probability": 0.3214,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
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"probability": 0.3283,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
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"probability": 0.16949999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -103,8 +103,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "92",
"numforecasters": "84",
"numforecasts": "93",
"numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -161,22 +161,22 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
"probability": 0.3119,
"probability": 0.31170000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
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},
{
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}
],
"numforecasts": "90",
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"numforecasts": "91",
"numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -223,22 +223,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
"probability": 0.1375,
"probability": 0.1377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
"probability": 0.4061,
"probability": 0.4064,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
"probability": 0.311,
"probability": 0.3107,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
"probability": 0.1139,
"probability": 0.11380000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -247,7 +247,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "99",
"numforecasts": "100",
"numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 2
},
@ -304,8 +304,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "87",
"numforecasters": "61",
"numforecasts": "88",
"numforecasters": "62",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -387,8 +387,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "203",
"numforecasters": "152",
"numforecasts": "206",
"numforecasters": "153",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -435,27 +435,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.05,
"probability": 0.048799999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
"probability": 0.12140000000000001,
"probability": 0.1204,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.2569,
"probability": 0.2566,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
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"probability": 0.5742,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "163",
"numforecasters": "114",
"numforecasts": "165",
"numforecasters": "116",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -538,32 +538,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $2.2 billion",
"probability": 0.08869999999999999,
"probability": 0.0922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $2.2 billion but less than or equal to $2.7 billion",
"probability": 0.2748,
"probability": 0.2756,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.31129999999999997,
"probability": 0.3109,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $3.2 billion and $3.7 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.19940000000000002,
"probability": 0.1978,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $3.7 billion",
"probability": 0.1258,
"probability": 0.1234,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "62",
"numforecasters": "45",
"numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -610,32 +610,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 15%",
"probability": 0.0762,
"probability": 0.0751,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.14679999999999999,
"probability": 0.1477,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%",
"probability": 0.2833,
"probability": 0.29100000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
"probability": 0.3323,
"probability": 0.3284,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 21%",
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"probability": 0.15789999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "94",
"numforecasters": "87",
"numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -775,32 +775,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.5%",
"probability": 0.0646,
"probability": 0.0663,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1374,
"probability": 0.1401,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
"probability": 0.2119,
"probability": 0.213,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.26780000000000004,
"probability": 0.2673,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6%",
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"probability": 0.3134,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "178",
"numforecasters": "132",
"numforecasts": "180",
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"stars": 3
},
{
@ -847,32 +847,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 675",
"probability": 0.3508,
"probability": 0.34340000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
"probability": 0.30579999999999996,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
"probability": 0.177,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
"probability": 0.114,
"probability": 0.1149,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 900",
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"probability": 0.0537,
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}
],
"numforecasts": "91",
"numforecasters": "58",
"numforecasts": "92",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -883,32 +883,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5,000",
"probability": 0.2245,
"probability": 0.2231,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.23379999999999998,
"probability": 0.2341,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000",
"probability": 0.2589,
"probability": 0.2606,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500",
"probability": 0.1723,
"probability": 0.17190000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than12,500",
"probability": 0.1106,
"probability": 0.1104,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "77",
"numforecasts": "124",
"numforecasters": "78",
"stars": 3
}
]

446
data/elicit-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5647953216374269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43520467836257315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,342,1
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8202608695652174,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17973913043478262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,230,1
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8202597402597402,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17974025974025976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,231,1
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36962264150943397,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6303773584905661,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,159,1
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5289130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47108695652173915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,138,1
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.757280701754386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.242719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,114,1
@ -17,8 +17,8 @@
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,82,1
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,87,1
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,86,1
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,87,1
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,80,1
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5265384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4734615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,78,1
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,79,1
@ -31,319 +31,319 @@
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6021951219512195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3978048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,41,1
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5548648648648649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44513513513513514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,37,1
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.687142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31285714285714294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04614035087719298,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9538596491228071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,57,1
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6111904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3888095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9532142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,56,1
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,56,1
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22054545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7794545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,55,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,38,1
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2762857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7237142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2687878787878788,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7312121212121212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2637037037037037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7362962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,39,1
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,39,1
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8088888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8088888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13772727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8622727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28695652173913044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7130434782608696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13952380952380952,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8604761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3326923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6673076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3326923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6673076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2946153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7053846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7136,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21529411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7847058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,36,1
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2290000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
2 Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5647953216374269,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43520467836257315,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 342 1
3 Will more than 50 people predict on this post? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8202608695652174,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17973913043478262,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8202597402597402,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17974025974025976,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 230 231 1
4 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36962264150943397,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6303773584905661,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 159 1
5 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5289130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47108695652173915,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 138 1
6 Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.757280701754386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.242719298245614,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 114 1
17 How vivid is your taste imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25726190476190475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7427380952380953,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 84 1
18 How vivid is your smell imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25414634146341464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7458536585365854,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 82 1
19 Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2538095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7461904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 84 1
Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1975862068965517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8024137931034483,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 87 1
20 How frequently do you think in words? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7812790697674419,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21872093023255812,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 86 1
21 Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1975862068965517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8024137931034483,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 87 1
22 Do you have an internal monologue? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8227500000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1772499999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 80 1
23 How good is your memory? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5265384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4734615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 78 1
24 How vivid is your touch imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3612658227848101,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6387341772151899,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 1
31 Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6021951219512195,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3978048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 41 1
32 By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5548648648648649,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44513513513513514,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 37 1
33 A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.687142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31285714285714294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 1
34 The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04614035087719298,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9538596491228071,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 57 1
35 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6111904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3888095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 1
The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04678571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9532142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 56 1
36 Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007941176470588234,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920588235294118,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 1
37 The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 56 1
38 The Pope will be assassinated. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0303125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 1
The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22054545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7794545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 55 1
Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36911764705882355,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6308823529411764,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 1
"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9709090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 1
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47382978723404257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261702127659574,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 1
The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38967741935483874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6103225806451613,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 31 1
39 PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 40 1
40 No military draft in the United States before 2020. Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9027272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09727272727272729,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36911764705882355,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6308823529411764,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 34 1
41 Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5493617021276596,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45063829787234044,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47382978723404257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261702127659574,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 1
42 "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9709090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 1
43 The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38967741935483874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6103225806451613,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 31 1
44 No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.82125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17874999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 1
45 Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5493617021276596,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45063829787234044,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 1
46 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 1
47 No military draft in the United States before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9027272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09727272727272729,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 1
48 Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08806451612903227,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9119354838709677,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 31 1
49 Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08678571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9132142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 1
Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4023809523809524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5976190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 1
50 Trump wins Nobel https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10552631578947368,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8944736842105263,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 38 1
51 California will secede from the United States before 2021 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006764705882352942,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9932352941176471,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4023809523809524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5976190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 42 1
52 Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.002307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9976923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
53 California will secede from the United States before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006764705882352942,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9932352941176471,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 1
54 The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2762857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7237142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 1
55 Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018846153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9811538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4684375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5315624999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 1
The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2687878787878788,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7312121212121212,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 1
56 ...be an environmental disaster. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2637037037037037,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7362962962962962,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 1
57 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4684375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5315624999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 1
58 "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9030769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
59 For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5855882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41441176470588237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 1
60 Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07461538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9253846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
61 The Singularity will occur by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35119999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6488,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
62 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2439285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7560714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 1
63 Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07461538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9253846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8411111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15888888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 27 1
For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5855882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41441176470588237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 1
"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9030769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33909090909090905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6609090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 1
PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31120000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19347826086956524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8065217391304348,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 1
64 Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6226923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37730769230769234,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
65 By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 1
66 Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8411111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15888888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31120000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 25 1
67 TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5815384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19347826086956524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8065217391304348,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 39 23 1
68 Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6084375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39156250000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33909090909090905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6609090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 33 1
Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.994090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.005909090909090975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20482758620689656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7951724137931034,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 1
69 The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3745833333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6254166666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 1
70 ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7019047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2980952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20482758620689656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7951724137931034,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 29 1
71 Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.994090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.005909090909090975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
72 TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5815384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 39 1
73 In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7363999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
74 ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7019047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2980952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
75 Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6084375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39156250000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 1
76 Google will survive for 15 more years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8838095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11619047619047618,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21636363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7836363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34127659574468083,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6587234042553192,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 1
77 Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2782857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7217142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 1
78 Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8831818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21636363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7836363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
79 Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15333333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
80 Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04739130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9526086956521739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 1
81 Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34127659574468083,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6587234042553192,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 1
82 Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8831818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
83 China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07454545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9254545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
84 No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7484999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25150000000000006,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7243478260869566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2756521739130434,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 23 1
85 ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8088888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19111111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.13249999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 24 1
...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8295,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
86 ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.484,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.516,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
87 Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02210526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9778947368421053,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
88 Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5694285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4305714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 1
89 ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8295,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
90 ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8088888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19111111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 1
91 Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8313636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16863636363636358,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
92 ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3638095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6361904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
93 Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6031428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 1
Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45799999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02210526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9778947368421053,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8313636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16863636363636358,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
94 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4704761904761905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5295238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.13249999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 1
United States will invade Australia and take over https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7243478260869566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2756521739130434,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 1
95 Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9305,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
96 Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45799999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
97 United States will invade Australia and take over https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
98 No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7484999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25150000000000006,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
99 What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6434000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3565999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 50 1
Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.648,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.352,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 40 1
100 We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8795238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
101 There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6427777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35722222222222233,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.648,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.352,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 40 1
Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9668181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
102 “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
103 The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13772727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8622727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
104 For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7112499999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 1
105 The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6754545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3245454545454546,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
106 Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9668181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
107 There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6427777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35722222222222233,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
108 Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5177777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4822222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28695652173913044,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7130434782608696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 1
The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13952380952380952,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8604761904761905,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3326923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6673076923076924,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4717391304347826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5282608695652173,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 1
aliens invade earth in 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.009444444444444445,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9905555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26894736842105266,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.982,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
109 A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2161904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7838095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
110 A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6905,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
111 Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6933333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30666666666666675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3326923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6673076923076924,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 26 1
112 The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8395238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16047619047619055,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26894736842105266,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 1
“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 1
113 Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12789473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8721052631578947,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
114 '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.982,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
115 Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6933333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30666666666666675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
116 Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4717391304347826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5282608695652173,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 1
117 The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2946153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7053846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
118 “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 1
119 aliens invade earth in 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.009444444444444445,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9905555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
120 It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.017222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9827777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
121 The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8395238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16047619047619055,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 1
122 My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08388888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9161111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
US presidents term limits abolished https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02235294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9776470588235294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
123 Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35526315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6447368421052632,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.049,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.951,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7770588235294117,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2229411764705883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2864,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7136,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0811764705882353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9188235294117647,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9531578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04684210526315791,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19105263157894736,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8089473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
124 Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4288888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5711111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
125 The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using "more dakka", for some reasonable version of "more dakka" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20"more%20dakka",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20"more%20dakka"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21529411764705883,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7847058823529411,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
126 By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
127 US presidents term limits abolished https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02235294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9776470588235294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
128 If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7770588235294117,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2229411764705883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
129 A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.049,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.951,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
130 Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
131 Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19105263157894736,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8089473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
132 Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9531578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04684210526315791,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
133 An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0811764705882353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9188235294117647,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
134 An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5777777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42222222222222217,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
135 Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1448,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8552,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5517647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44823529411764707,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 17 1
The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using "more dakka", for some reasonable version of "more dakka" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20"more%20dakka",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20"more%20dakka"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.118125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.881875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.23450000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5852941176470589,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.926875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.073125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
136 Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5689655172413793,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43103448275862066,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 1
137 Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4064,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
138 The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7811764705882354,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21882352941176464,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.926875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.073125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 16 1
139 USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5852941176470589,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
140 There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.933125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06687500000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
141 A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43473684210526314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5652631578947369,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
142 Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03705882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9629411764705882,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
143 C still widely in use in the 2020s https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9353333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06466666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
144 Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1448,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8552,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
145 Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.118125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.881875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
146 If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7394117647058823,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2605882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
147 If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.294375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.705625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
148 If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6647058823529411,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33529411764705885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
149 The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
150 A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43473684210526314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5652631578947369,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7811764705882354,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21882352941176464,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 17 1
151 Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5517647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44823529411764707,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.23450000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 20 1
Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03705882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9629411764705882,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
C still widely in use in the 2020s https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9353333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06466666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0955,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9045,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 1
The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09823529411764706,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9017647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 1
The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3026315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6973684210526316,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
152 Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9299999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
153 The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8220000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17799999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28214285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7178571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11733333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8826666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
154 A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08785714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9121428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
155 "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
156 Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.111875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.888125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
157 Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8717647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12823529411764711,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47388888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 18 1
158 North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05941176470588236,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9405882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3026315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6973684210526316,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 19 1
If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17394444444444446,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8260555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47388888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9214285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
159 Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2764285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7235714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09823529411764706,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9017647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 17 1
160 The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9214285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
161 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17394444444444446,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8260555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
162 Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.320625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6793750000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
163 The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4446153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5553846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 15 1
164 Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8717647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12823529411764711,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 17 1
165 Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
166 Trump dies of COVID-19 "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0955,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9045,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 20 1
167 "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28214285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7178571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
168 Humanity still a thing in 2036 I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8220000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17799999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 15 1
169 All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04923076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9507692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05941176470588236,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9405882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 17 1
170 10 million The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9158333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11733333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8826666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 36 15 1
171 All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04923076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9507692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
172 10 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9158333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 36 1
173 Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. Humanity still a thing in 2036 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.106875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.893125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
174 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5135714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.48642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 15 1
175 There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. ETI is AGI https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7389473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2610526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8461111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15388888888888885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 18 1
We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40842105263157896,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.591578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
ETI is AGI https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8461111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15388888888888885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 1
Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2978571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7021428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6271428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3728571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.853125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14687499999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1336842105263158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8663157894736842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
176 By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11076923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8892307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5135714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.48642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 14 1
177 The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40842105263157896,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.591578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 19 1
178 Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.040769230769230766,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4446153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5553846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 26 1
179 USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.045,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.955,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 18 1
180 Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
181 Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.040769230769230766,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
182 By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44153846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5584615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
183 The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8146153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1469230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8530769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3830769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6169230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7324999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44153846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5584615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1469230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8530769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
184 Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9535714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7389473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2610526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 19 1
185 100 million Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007931034482758621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920689655172413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6271428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3728571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 14 1
186 the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9235714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.045,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.955,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 16 1
187 Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8683333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1316666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2764285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7235714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 14 1
188 "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33461538461538465,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.320625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6793750000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 16 1
189 Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3707692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6292307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2978571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7021428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 14 1
190 Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.696923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.303076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.853125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14687499999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 16 1
191 We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24333333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 16 1
192 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6083333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 13 1
193 Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3358333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6641666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8146153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 13 1
194 Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. Trump dies of COVID-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013076923076923076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9869230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 32 1
195 If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6315384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3684615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11076923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8892307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 13 1
196 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8583333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3830769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6169230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 13 1
197 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5107142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4892857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1336842105263158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8663157894736842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 19 1
198 "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
199 Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.106875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.893125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
200 Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7324999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
201 In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4607142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5392857142857144,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
202 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8583333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
203 Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8683333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1316666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
204 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9535714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
205 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5107142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4892857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
206 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
207 In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4607142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5392857142857144,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
208 Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.49242424242424243,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5075757575757576,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 33 1
“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03833333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9616666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
209 Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5246666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4753333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.49242424242424243,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5075757575757576,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 1
If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5689473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 1
210 Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5246666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4753333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5689473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 19 1
Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
211 By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.027333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9726666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
212 The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.46692307692307694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.533076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33461538461538465,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
213 The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. 100 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007931034482758621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920689655172413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 29 1
214 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8407142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21076923076923082,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
215 At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21076923076923082,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 14 1
Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8175,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
216 Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07714285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9228571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6315384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3684615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 26 1
217 50 million Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.016470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9835294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07714285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9228571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 14 1
218 the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9235714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
219 With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08923076923076924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 15 1
220 "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6481818181818181,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3518181818181819,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3707692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6292307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 13 1
221 Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23377083333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7662291666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.696923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.303076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 13 1
222 Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21272727272727274,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7872727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8175,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 12 1
223 Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2809090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7190909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03833333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9616666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 12 1
224 SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24333333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
225 As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6778571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32214285714285706,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6083333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
226 Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43000000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8407142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 14 1
227 The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.024166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9758333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.027333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9726666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 15 1
228 Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9458333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3358333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6641666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
229 Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6592857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34071428571428575,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.46692307692307694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.533076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
230 Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
231 Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6866666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31333333333333324,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 15 1
232 Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44083333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5591666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 15 1
233 In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013076923076923076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9869230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 13 1
234 The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28428571428571425,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7157142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 16 1
235 Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. China will land a man on Mars by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8921428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
236 “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6592857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34071428571428575,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 14 1
“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4081818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5918181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 1
The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5407692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 1
Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26272727272727275,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7372727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6836363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4314285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6679999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 1
Trump wins the 2020 election. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4753846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5246153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5557142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4442857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7091666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
China will land a man on Mars by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10285714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8971428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
237 By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31384615384615383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6861538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6679999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 15 1
238 "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7516666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2483333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21272727272727274,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7872727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
239 No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45307692307692304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.546923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10181818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8981818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
240 We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5269230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47307692307692306,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9646153846153847,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7783333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22166666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9325,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.0675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4153846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5846153846153845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7927272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5621428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43785714285714283,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10181818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8981818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9623076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
241 A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6136363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7927272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
242 Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7525,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2809090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7190909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
243 Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
244 With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08923076923076924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
245 50 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.016470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9835294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 1
246 Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8921428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
247 The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28428571428571425,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7157142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
248 Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9458333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
249 "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5621428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43785714285714283,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
250 As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6778571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32214285714285706,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
251 Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6836363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
252 A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6136363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
253 At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7091666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
254 Trump will run for president in 2024 Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7961538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23377083333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7662291666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 24 1
255 'President Mike Pence' Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.140625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.859375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26272727272727275,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7372727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 11 1
256 Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.543076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4081818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5918181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 22 1
257 A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8790909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 26 1
258 "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
259 The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 1
260 Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43000000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
261 By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31384615384615383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6861538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
262 No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45307692307692304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.546923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
263 Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6866666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31333333333333324,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
264 In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
265 some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9623076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
266 Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10285714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8971428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
267 The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5407692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
268 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4314285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
269 Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.543076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
270 At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
271 HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4309090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9646153846153847,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 13 1
272 We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17923076923076922,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8207692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44083333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5591666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
273 Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13142857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9325,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.0675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
274 By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7516666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2483333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 12 1
275 By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.309,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6910000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6481818181818181,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3518181818181819,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 11 1
276 Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4153846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5846153846153845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 13 1
277 What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level? Trump will run for president in 2024 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09571428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9042857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7961538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
278 By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.024166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9758333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 12 1
279 By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3346153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6653846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
280 Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8908333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5557142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4442857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 14 1
281 We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5269230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47307692307692306,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
282 Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7525,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
283 People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
284 'President Mike Pence' https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.140625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.859375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
285 “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
286 Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
287 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7783333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22166666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
288 Trump wins the 2020 election. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4753846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5246153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
289 “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9258333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
290 By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3346153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6653846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
291 Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7709999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2290000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
292 By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2907692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7092307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 13 1
In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.796,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.261,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9863636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09357142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9064285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
homosexuality criminalized in the US https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17300000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.827,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2907692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7092307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2963636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44166666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5583333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8691666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 1
Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.467,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5329999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.27785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7221428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7709999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2290000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.887,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
293 EU to dissolve by 2040. By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39454545454545453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6054545454545455,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.309,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6910000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
294 Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.556,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44399999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09571428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9042857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 14 1
295 Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 16 1
296 Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.958,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.467,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5329999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
297 “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9258333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
298 We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17923076923076922,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8207692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
299 Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.27785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7221428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
300 By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8691666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
301 Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.261,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
302 Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8908333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
303 Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.887,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
304 By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
305 Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13142857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
306 Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2963636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
307 By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
308 By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.750909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.24909090909090903,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
309 HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9290909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 13 1
310 The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.060909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9390909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
311 Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.556,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44399999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
312 Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
313 In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09357142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9064285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
314 Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17300000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.827,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
315 Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.958,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
316 The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.789,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21099999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
317 Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7791666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
318 No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5272727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 12 1
319 No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5272727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
320 “China will break apart by 2030” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24600000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.754,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
321 SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.198,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.802,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
322 ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7361538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.198,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.802,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7361538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 1
323 The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.789,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21099999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8790909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 11 1
Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
324 By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.750909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.24909090909090903,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
325 “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
326 HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4309090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
327 “China will break apart by 2030” “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24600000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.754,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 13 1
328 Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3463636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6536363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 13 1
329 Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.783,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9863636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 11 1
330 WWIII starts before 2030. Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08857142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9114285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3463636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6536363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
331 WWIII starts before 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08857142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9114285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 1
332 In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.796,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
333 HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9290909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
334 The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.060909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9390909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
335 Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
336 Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.783,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
337 P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44166666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5583333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 1
338 EU to dissolve by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39454545454545453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6054545454545455,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 1
339 homosexuality criminalized in the US https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 1
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"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""National Rally (Rassemblement national)"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Republicans (Les Républicains)"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Republic Forward (La République En Marche !)"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""None of the above"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2022, with a possible <a href=""https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/"" target=""_blank"">run-off</a> two weeks later. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron may run <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/world/europe/france-macron-right.html"" target=""_blank"">again</a>, but he has not yet committed to doing so.",,4
"In the next Italian general election, which party will win the largest number of parliamentary seats?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""League (Lega)"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""None of the parties above will win the largest number of seats or there will be a tie"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, though a <a href=""https://www.thelocal.it/20210126/explained-why-has-italy-prime-minister-resigned-and-what-happens-now"" target=""_blank"">snap</a> general election could be <a href=""http://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_inglese.pdf"" target=""_blank"">called</a> before then. The question will resolve on the total number of <a href=""https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/"" target=""_blank"">seats</a> won in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate combined.",,4
"Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""National Rally (Rassemblement national)"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Republicans (Les Républicains)"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Republic Forward (La République En Marche !)"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""None of the above"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2022, with a possible <a href=""https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/"" target=""_blank"">run-off</a> two weeks later. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron may run <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/world/europe/france-macron-right.html"" target=""_blank"">again</a>, but he has not yet committed to doing so.",,4
"In the next Italian general election, which party will win the largest number of parliamentary seats?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""League (Lega)"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""None of the parties above will win the largest number of seats or there will be a tie"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, though a <a href=""https://www.thelocal.it/20210126/explained-why-has-italy-prime-minister-resigned-and-what-happens-now"" target=""_blank"">snap</a> general election could be <a href=""http://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_inglese.pdf"" target=""_blank"">called</a> before then. The question will resolve on the total number of <a href=""https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/"" target=""_blank"">seats</a> won in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate combined.",,4
"Before 1 April 2022, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since taking office in 2019, there have been <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/impeach-bolsonaro-just-five-months-in-talk-has-already-begun"" target=""_blank"">calls</a> to <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-brazils-bolsonaro-faces-calls-for-his-impeachment.html"" target=""_blank"">impeach</a> President Bolsonaro, most recently due to his policies relating to the <a href=""https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-a/brazils-bolsonaro-isolated-weakened-by-coronavirus-denial-idUSKBN21K333"" target=""_blank"">COVID-19</a> pandemic.",,4
"When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 20 January 2023"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20 January 2023 and 19 January 2025"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""On 20 January 2025"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 21 January 2025"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for <a href=""https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx"" target=""_blank"">20 January</a> 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the <a href=""https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv"" target=""_blank"">25th Amendment</a> for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count.",,4
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5 million but fewer than 10 million"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10 million and 20 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a <a href=""https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html"" target=""_blank"">topic</a> of <a href=""https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/"" target=""_blank"">intense</a> <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2931237-X/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">speculation</a>. The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (<a href=""https://africacdc.org/covid-19/"" target=""_blank"">Africa CDC</a>) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021.",,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",,4
"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href=""https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390"" target=""_blank"">criticized</a> for being <a href=""https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP"" target=""_blank"">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href=""https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html"" target=""_blank"">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.",,4
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=""https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history"" target=""_blank"">pushing</a> to <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325"" target=""_blank"">execute</a> its <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech"" target=""_blank"">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus"" target=""_blank"">UK</a> <a href=""https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976"" target=""_blank"">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",,4
"When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 20 January 2023"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20 January 2023 and 19 January 2025"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""On 20 January 2025"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 21 January 2025"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for <a href=""https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx"" target=""_blank"">20 January</a> 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the <a href=""https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv"" target=""_blank"">25th Amendment</a> for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count.",,4
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5 million but fewer than 10 million"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10 million and 20 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a <a href=""https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html"" target=""_blank"">topic</a> of <a href=""https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/"" target=""_blank"">intense</a> <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2931237-X/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">speculation</a>. The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (<a href=""https://africacdc.org/covid-19/"" target=""_blank"">Africa CDC</a>) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021.",,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",,4
"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href=""https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390"" target=""_blank"">criticized</a> for being <a href=""https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP"" target=""_blank"">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href=""https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html"" target=""_blank"">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.",,4
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=""https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history"" target=""_blank"">pushing</a> to <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325"" target=""_blank"">execute</a> its <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech"" target=""_blank"">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus"" target=""_blank"">UK</a> <a href=""https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976"" target=""_blank"">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",,4
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In its 2020 report, The <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices"" target=""_blank"">Conference</a> <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf"" target=""_blank"">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive"" target=""_blank"">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=""https://www.conference-board.org/us/"" target=""_blank"">report</a>. ",,4
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (<a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020"" target=""_blank"">IMF</a>) and <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering"" target=""_blank"">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=""https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/"" target=""_blank"">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending"" target=""_blank"">website</a>, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=""https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls"" target=""_blank"">April 2020</a> report.",,4
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Interest in <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter"" target=""_blank"">sustainable</a> <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us"" target=""_blank"">sector</a> <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs"" target=""_blank"">investment</a> <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule"" target=""_blank"">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows"" target=""_blank"">data</a> from <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records"" target=""_blank"">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.",,4
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (<a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020"" target=""_blank"">IMF</a>) and <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering"" target=""_blank"">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=""https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/"" target=""_blank"">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending"" target=""_blank"">website</a>, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=""https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls"" target=""_blank"">April 2020</a> report.",,4
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Interest in <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter"" target=""_blank"">sustainable</a> <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us"" target=""_blank"">sector</a> <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs"" target=""_blank"">investment</a> <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule"" target=""_blank"">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows"" target=""_blank"">data</a> from <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records"" target=""_blank"">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.",,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">can</a> be <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank""> found</a> <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",,4
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href=""https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits"" target=""_blank"">workers</a> to work from <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487"" target=""_blank"">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href=""https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain"" target=""_blank"">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",,4
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href=""https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits"" target=""_blank"">workers</a> to work from <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487"" target=""_blank"">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href=""https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain"" target=""_blank"">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",,4
1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
2 Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"National Rally (Rassemblement national)","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Republicans (Les Républicains)","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Republic Forward (La République En Marche !)","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"None of the above","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"National Rally (Rassemblement national)","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Republicans (Les Républicains)","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Republic Forward (La République En Marche !)","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"None of the above","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2022, with a possible <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/" target="_blank">run-off</a> two weeks later. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron may run <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/world/europe/france-macron-right.html" target="_blank">again</a>, but he has not yet committed to doing so. 4
3 In the next Italian general election, which party will win the largest number of parliamentary seats?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"League (Lega)","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"None of the parties above will win the largest number of seats or there will be a tie","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"League (Lega)","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"None of the parties above will win the largest number of seats or there will be a tie","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, though a <a href="https://www.thelocal.it/20210126/explained-why-has-italy-prime-minister-resigned-and-what-happens-now" target="_blank">snap</a> general election could be <a href="http://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_inglese.pdf" target="_blank">called</a> before then. The question will resolve on the total number of <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/" target="_blank">seats</a> won in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate combined. 4
4 Before 1 April 2022, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Since taking office in 2019, there have been <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/impeach-bolsonaro-just-five-months-in-talk-has-already-begun" target="_blank">calls</a> to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-brazils-bolsonaro-faces-calls-for-his-impeachment.html" target="_blank">impeach</a> President Bolsonaro, most recently due to his policies relating to the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-a/brazils-bolsonaro-isolated-weakened-by-coronavirus-denial-idUSKBN21K333" target="_blank">COVID-19</a> pandemic. 4
5 When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Before 20 January 2023","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20 January 2023 and 19 January 2025","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"On 20 January 2025","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 21 January 2025","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 20 January 2023","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20 January 2023 and 19 January 2025","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"On 20 January 2025","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 21 January 2025","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx" target="_blank">20 January</a> 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv" target="_blank">25th Amendment</a> for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count. 4
6 How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Fewer than 2.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5 million and 5 million, inclusive","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5 million but fewer than 10 million","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 10 million and 20 million, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 2.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5 million and 5 million, inclusive","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5 million but fewer than 10 million","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 10 million and 20 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html" target="_blank">topic</a> of <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/" target="_blank">intense</a> <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2931237-X/fulltext" target="_blank">speculation</a>. The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (<a href="https://africacdc.org/covid-19/" target="_blank">Africa CDC</a>) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021. 4
7 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">companies</a> are trying to <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19" target="_blank">FDA</a> has authorized <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">here</a>. "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">Compassionate use</a>" and "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">emergency use</a>" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 4
8 When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Before 1 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 November 2021","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 November 2021","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390" target="_blank">criticized</a> for being <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP" target="_blank">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href="https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html" target="_blank">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. 4
9 When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history" target="_blank">pushing</a> to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325" target="_blank">execute</a> its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech" target="_blank">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus" target="_blank">UK</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976" target="_blank">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. 4
10 In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Less than 23%","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 27%","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] In its 2020 report, The <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices" target="_blank">Conference</a> <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf" target="_blank">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive" target="_blank">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/us/" target="_blank">report</a>. 4
11 What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Lower by more than 8%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 4%","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Lower by more than 8%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 4%","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering" target="_blank">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/" target="_blank">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending" target="_blank">website</a>, choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls" target="_blank">April 2020</a> report. 4
12 What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment [{"name":"At or below 2020 levels","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 100%","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 100%","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"At or below 2020 levels","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 100%","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 100%","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Interest in <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter" target="_blank">sustainable</a> <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us" target="_blank">sector</a> <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs" target="_blank">investment</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule" target="_blank">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows" target="_blank">data</a> from <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records" target="_blank">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021. 4
13 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Dozens of companies are trying to <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">viable</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">can</a> be <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank"> found</a> <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">here</a>. "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 4
14 As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits" target="_blank">workers</a> to work from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487" target="_blank">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain" target="_blank">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. 4

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data/goodjudgment-questions.json
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@ -7,22 +7,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "National Rally (Rassemblement national)",
"probability": 0.14,
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Republicans (Les Républicains)",
"probability": 0.07,
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Republic Forward (La République En Marche !)",
"probability": 0.74,
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -41,22 +41,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "League (Lega)",
"probability": 0.43,
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -104,12 +104,12 @@
},
{
"name": "On 20 January 2025",
"probability": 0.54,
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 21 January 2025",
"probability": 0.36,
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -128,17 +128,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 2.5 million and 5 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.86,
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5 million but fewer than 10 million",
"probability": 0.13,
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 10 million and 20 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -162,12 +162,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
"probability": 0.28,
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
"probability": 0.7,
"probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -201,12 +201,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.42,
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.48,
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -230,17 +230,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.86,
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.14,
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -293,17 +293,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
"probability": 0.24,
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.68,
"probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
"probability": 0.06,
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -322,12 +322,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
"probability": 0.46,
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
"probability": 0.53,
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -375,12 +375,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "10% or less",
"probability": 0.04,
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.79,
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{

284
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,199 +1,199 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere ([Dogecoin](https://dogecoin.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin)). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727.
","30",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).
","33",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).
","15",2
","36",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).
","41",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).
","18",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).
","71",2
","78",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).
","63",2
","74",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).
NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.
","55",2
","56",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
","99",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).
","101",3
","102",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).
","108",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).
","87",2
","90",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
","94",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).
","66",2
","98",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).
","69",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
","99",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
","74",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 50,000,000"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 50,000,000 and 53,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 53,000,000 but fewer than 56,000,000"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 56,000,000 and 59,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 59,000,000 but fewer than 62,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 62,000,000 and 65,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under “Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses” at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)).
","356",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 45,000"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 45,000 and 60,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 60,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but fewer than 105,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 105,000 and 120,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 120,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week starting 21 February 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
","123",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 14,000"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14,000 and 16,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16,000 but fewer than 18,000"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18,000 and 20,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but fewer than 22,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22,000 and 24,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 24,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
","248",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 600,000"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 600,000 and 750,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 900,000 and 1,050,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,050,000 but fewer than 1,200,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,200,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,350,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
","254",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
","75",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 50,000,000"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 50,000,000 and 53,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 53,000,000 but fewer than 56,000,000"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 56,000,000 and 59,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 59,000,000 but fewer than 62,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 62,000,000 and 65,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under “Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses” at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)).
","378",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 45,000"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 45,000 and 60,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 60,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but fewer than 105,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 105,000 and 120,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 120,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week starting 21 February 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
","132",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 14,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14,000 and 16,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16,000 but fewer than 18,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18,000 and 20,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but fewer than 22,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22,000 and 24,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 24,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
","268",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 600,000"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 600,000 and 750,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 900,000 and 1,050,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,050,000 but fewer than 1,200,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,200,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,350,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
","269",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
","169",3
","173",3
,,,"[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
","166",3
","167",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
","88",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
","49",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
","52",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
","65",2
","66",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).
","134",3
","139",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
","112",3
","114",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
","175",3
","177",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?
Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#086b64697a616e616b697c6167667b486f67676c627d6c6f656d667c266b6765377b7d6a626d6b7c35597d6d7b7c6167662d3a384b64697a616e616b697c616766). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","276",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
","228",3
,,,"[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","200",3
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#44272825362d222d2725302d2b2a3704232b2b202e31202329212a306a272b297b3731262e2127307915312137302d2b2a617674072825362d222d2725302d2b2a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","277",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
","232",3
,,,"[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","202",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","125",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
","186",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
","188",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?
Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","68",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
","118",3
","70",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
","120",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
","59",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
","125",3
","126",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
","74",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
","157",3
","75",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
","161",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
","128",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
","94",2
","96",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
","208",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
","193",3
","210",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
","195",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).
","88",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","229",3
","232",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
","168",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
","166",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
","167",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?
Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#2a49464b58434c43494b5e434544596a4d45454e405f4e4d474f445e0449454715595f48404f495e177b5f4f595e4345440f181a69464b58434c43494b5e434544). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","100",2
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b8dbd4d9cad1ded1dbd9ccd1d7d6cbf8dfd7d7dcd2cddcdfd5ddd6cc96dbd7d587cbcddad2dddbcc85e9cdddcbccd1d7d69d8a88fbd4d9cad1ded1dbd9ccd1d7d6). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","101",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 35"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35 and 50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 50 but fewer than 65"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion) [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/) [in Spanish]).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Cuantos escaños ganará Nuevas Ideas en la Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador en las elecciones de 2021? 
Información adicional: Las elecciones legislativas de El Salvador están agendadas para el 28 de febrero de 2021 y todos los 84 escaños en la Asamblea Legislativa están en juego ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). Nuevas Ideas es un partido político recientemente creado por el Presidente de El Savador, Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). Un escaño obtenido como parte de un Pacto de Coalición contará para la resolución de esta pregunta ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion), [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. 
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6d0e010c1f040b040e0c190402031e2d0a0202090718090a00080319430e0200521e180f07080e19503c18081e19040203485f5d2e010c1f040b040e0c19040203). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e4878885968d828d8785908d8b8a97a4838b8b808e91808389818a90ca878b89db9791868e818790d9b5918197908d8b8ac1d6d4a78885968d828d8785908d8b8a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","59",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
","186",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
","183",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
","190",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
","187",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506), [Xataka](https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis) [in Spanish], [El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html) [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count.
","39",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 and 3"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7 and 9"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K."" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","434",3
,,,"[{""name"":""8 or fewer"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 15"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 and 22"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23 and 29"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to ""States,"" under ""POSITIVE TEST RATE."" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","396",3
","437",3
,,,"[{""name"":""8 or fewer"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 15"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 and 22"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23 and 29"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to ""States,"" under ""POSITIVE TEST RATE."" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","401",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)).
","275",3
","276",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
","96",2
","97",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).
","140",3
","142",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
","153",3
","157",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
","404",3
","407",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.
","367",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
","253",3
","254",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
","318",3
","319",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
","238",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020))
","336",3
","239",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020))
","340",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
","264",3
","267",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
","214",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
","209",3
","216",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
","210",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
","74",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)). 
","328",3
","330",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
","95",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","66",2
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
","182",3
","185",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
","100",2
","102",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)).
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
","322",3
,,,"[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).
","323",3
,,,"[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).
NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
","143",3
","145",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
","435",3
","439",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Nguyễn Thị Kim Ngân"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nguyễn Xuân Phúc"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Trần Quốc Vượng"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader), [Vietnam Times](https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html)). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/)).
NOTE 26 January 2021: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close ""A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021.""
","269",3
","270",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
","472",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
","1069",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
","452",3
","473",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
","1075",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
","458",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).
","285",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for ""Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices"" ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&amp;f=W)).
","418",3
","421",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)).
This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021).
","427",3
","428",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
","211",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
","284",3
","285",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
","261",3
","264",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","257",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers), [National Interest](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/)). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info](https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea), [Inquirer.net](https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-lorenzana).
","412",3
","414",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736)). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559)).
","525",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
@ -201,13 +201,13 @@ NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
","199",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","281",3
","282",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).
","247",3
,,,"[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","1172",3
,,,"[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","1184",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
","259",3
","262",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).
","182",3
,,,"[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).
@ -216,63 +216,63 @@ NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would co
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. 
","123",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
","457",3
","459",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
","611",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
","249",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
","401",3
","614",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
","251",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
","407",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
","386",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, ""at sea"" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them.
NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be ""at sea.""
","403",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","203",3
","204",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
","373",3
","374",3
,,,"[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
","265",3
","271",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
","601",3
","605",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
","1024",3
","1030",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","356",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
","301",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","626",3
","628",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
","739",3
","742",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","195",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","311",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
","551",3
","553",3
,,,"[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).
NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.
NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.
","458",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
","207",3
","208",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","336",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
","258",3
","260",3
,,,"[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.
NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery
NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf).
","259",3
","260",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
","543",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0b68676a79626d62686a7f626465784b6c64646f617e6f6c666e657f2568646634787e69616e687f365a7e6e787f6264652e393b48676a79626d62686a7f626465). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","278",3
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#583b34392a313e313b392c3137362b183f37373c322d3c3f353d362c763b3735672b2d3a323d3b2c65092d3d2b2c3137367d6a681b34392a313e313b392c313736). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","279",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f4979895869d929d9795809d9b9a87b4939b9b909e81909399919a80da979b99cb8781969e919780c9a5819187809d9b9ad1c6c4b79895869d929d9795809d9b9a). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#99faf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7ead9fef6f6fdf3ecfdfef4fcf7edb7faf6f4a6eaecfbf3fcfaeda4c8ecfceaedf0f6f7bcaba9daf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","575",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
@ -280,35 +280,35 @@ NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal cha
","228",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
","224",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
","217",3
","225",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
","220",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#31525d5043585758525045585e5f4271565e5e555b4455565c545f451f525e5c0e4244535b5452450c6044544245585e5f140301725d5043585758525045585e5f). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","1055",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3d5e515c4f545b545e5c495452534e7d5a5252595748595a50585349135e5250024e485f57585e49006c48584e49545253180f0d7e515c4f545b545e5c49545253). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","1319",3
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#53303f32213a353a3032273a3c3d2013343c3c37392637343e363d277d303c3e6c202631393630276e02263620273a3c3d766163103f32213a353a3032273a3c3d). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","1057",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4d2e212c3f242b242e2c392422233e0d2a2222292738292a20282339632e2220723e382f27282e39701c38283e39242223687f7d0e212c3f242b242e2c39242223). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","1324",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#76151a17041f101f1517021f19180536111919121c0312111b1318025815191b490503141c1315024b27031305021f1918534446351a17041f101f1517021f1918). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b0d3dcd1c2d9d6d9d3d1c4d9dfdec3f0d7dfdfd4dac5d4d7ddd5dec49ed3dfdd8fc3c5d2dad5d3c48de1c5d5c3c4d9dfde958280f3dcd1c2d9d6d9d3d1c4d9dfde). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","230",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","946",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","277",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (&gt;22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
","265",3
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#2b48474a59424d42484a5f424445586b4c44444f415e4f4c464e455f0548444614585e49414e485f167a5e4e585f4244450e191b68474a59424d42484a5f424445). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","949",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","278",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (&gt;22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
","266",3
,,,"[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#25464944574c434c4644514c4a4b5665424a4a414f50414248404b510b464a481a5650474f4046511874504056514c4a4b001715664944574c434c4644514c4a4b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","373",3
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b6d5dad7c4dfd0dfd5d7c2dfd9d8c5f6d1d9d9d2dcc3d2d1dbd3d8c298d5d9db89c5c3d4dcd3d5c28be7c3d3c5c2dfd9d8938486f5dad7c4dfd0dfd5d7c2dfd9d8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","375",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","181",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).
","253",3
","254",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
","385",3
","386",3
,,,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","258",3

1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
2 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere ([Dogecoin](https://dogecoin.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin)). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727. 30 36 2
3 [{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). 33 41 2
4 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). 15 18 2
5 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). 71 78 2
6 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). 63 74 2
7 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. 55 56 2
8 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. 99 102 2 3
9 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). 101 108 3
10 [{"name":"Yes, only SpaceX","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Virgin Galactic","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). 87 90 2
11 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). 94 98 2
12 [{"name":"Brooklyn Nets","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Clippers","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Lakers","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Milwaukee Bucks","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another team","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Brooklyn Nets","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Clippers","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Lakers","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Milwaukee Bucks","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another team","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). 66 69 2
13 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. 99 2
14 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. 74 75 2
15 [{"name":"Fewer than 50,000,000","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 50,000,000 and 53,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 53,000,000 but fewer than 56,000,000","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 56,000,000 and 59,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 59,000,000 but fewer than 62,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 62,000,000 and 65,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 65,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 50,000,000","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 50,000,000 and 53,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 53,000,000 but fewer than 56,000,000","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 56,000,000 and 59,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 59,000,000 but fewer than 62,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 62,000,000 and 65,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 65,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under “Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses” at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)). 356 378 3
16 [{"name":"Fewer than 45,000","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 45,000 and 60,000, inclusive","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 60,000 but fewer than 75,000","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 75,000 and 90,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 90,000 but fewer than 105,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 105,000 and 120,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 120,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 45,000","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 45,000 and 60,000, inclusive","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 60,000 but fewer than 75,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 75,000 and 90,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 90,000 but fewer than 105,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 105,000 and 120,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 120,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week starting 21 February 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021. 123 132 3
17 [{"name":"Fewer than 14,000","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14,000 and 16,000, inclusive","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 16,000 but fewer than 18,000","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 18,000 and 20,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but fewer than 22,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22,000 and 24,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 24,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 14,000","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14,000 and 16,000, inclusive","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 16,000 but fewer than 18,000","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 18,000 and 20,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but fewer than 22,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22,000 and 24,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 24,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021. 248 268 3
18 [{"name":"Fewer than 600,000","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 600,000 and 750,000, inclusive","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 750,000 but fewer than 900,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 900,000 and 1,050,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,050,000 but fewer than 1,200,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,200,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,350,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 600,000","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 600,000 and 750,000, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 750,000 but fewer than 900,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 900,000 and 1,050,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,050,000 but fewer than 1,200,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,200,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,350,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021. 254 269 3
19 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. 169 173 3
20 [{"name":"0","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. 166 167 3
21 [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than $1 billion","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.75 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. 88 2
22 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.82,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). 49 52 2
23 [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. 65 66 2
24 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). 134 139 3
25 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. 112 114 3
26 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. 175 177 3
27 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#086b64697a616e616b697c6167667b486f67676c627d6c6f656d667c266b6765377b7d6a626d6b7c35597d6d7b7c6167662d3a384b64697a616e616b697c616766). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#44272825362d222d2725302d2b2a3704232b2b202e31202329212a306a272b297b3731262e2127307915312137302d2b2a617674072825362d222d2725302d2b2a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). 276 277 3
28 [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." 228 232 3
29 [{"name":"7 or fewer","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8 and 14","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15 and 21","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22 and 28","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"7 or fewer","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8 and 14","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15 and 21","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22 and 28","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. 200 202 3
30 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. 125 3
31 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). 186 188 3
32 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). 68 70 2
33 [{"name":"Fewer than 226 seats","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 226 seats and 299 seats","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"300 seats or more","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 226 seats","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 226 seats and 299 seats","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"300 seats or more","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. 118 120 3
34 [{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. 59 2
35 [{"name":"Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 18 September 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. 125 126 3
36 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). 74 75 2
37 [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). 157 161 3
38 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. 128 3
39 [{"name":"Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. 94 96 2
40 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. 208 210 3
41 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. 193 195 3
42 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). 88 2
43 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. 229 232 3
44 [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). 168 3
45 [{"name":"Yes, the most valuable in the world","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, but the most valuable in the United States","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, the most valuable in the world","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, but the most valuable in the United States","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). 166 167 3
46 [{"name":"Nicaragua","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"St. Lucia","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will be a draw","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Nicaragua","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"St. Lucia","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will be a draw","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#2a49464b58434c43494b5e434544596a4d45454e405f4e4d474f445e0449454715595f48404f495e177b5f4f595e4345440f181a69464b58434c43494b5e434544). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b8dbd4d9cad1ded1dbd9ccd1d7d6cbf8dfd7d7dcd2cddcdfd5ddd6cc96dbd7d587cbcddad2dddbcc85e9cdddcbccd1d7d69d8a88fbd4d9cad1ded1dbd9ccd1d7d6). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). 100 101 2 3
47 [{"name":"Fewer than 35","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35 and 50, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 50 but fewer than 65","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion) [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/) [in Spanish]). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Cuantos escaños ganará Nuevas Ideas en la Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador en las elecciones de 2021?  Información adicional: Las elecciones legislativas de El Salvador están agendadas para el 28 de febrero de 2021 y todos los 84 escaños en la Asamblea Legislativa están en juego ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). Nuevas Ideas es un partido político recientemente creado por el Presidente de El Savador, Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). Un escaño obtenido como parte de un Pacto de Coalición contará para la resolución de esta pregunta ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion), [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.  Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6d0e010c1f040b040e0c190402031e2d0a0202090718090a00080319430e0200521e180f07080e19503c18081e19040203485f5d2e010c1f040b040e0c19040203). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion) [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/) [in Spanish]). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Cuantos escaños ganará Nuevas Ideas en la Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador en las elecciones de 2021?  Información adicional: Las elecciones legislativas de El Salvador están agendadas para el 28 de febrero de 2021 y todos los 84 escaños en la Asamblea Legislativa están en juego ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). Nuevas Ideas es un partido político recientemente creado por el Presidente de El Savador, Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). Un escaño obtenido como parte de un Pacto de Coalición contará para la resolución de esta pregunta ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion), [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.  Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e4878885968d828d8785908d8b8a97a4838b8b808e91808389818a90ca878b89db9791868e818790d9b5918197908d8b8ac1d6d4a78885968d828d8785908d8b8a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). 59 2
48 [{"name":"Less than 1.500","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.000 but less than 2.500","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3.000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.500","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.000 but less than 2.500","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3.000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). 186 190 3
49 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). 183 187 3
50 [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March and 31 March 2021","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 May 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506), [Xataka](https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis) [in Spanish], [El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html) [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count. 39 2
51 [{"name":"Zero","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 and 3","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4 and 6","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7 and 9","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. 434 437 3
52 [{"name":"8 or fewer","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9 and 15","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16 and 22","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23 and 29","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"8 or fewer","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9 and 15","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16 and 22","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23 and 29","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to "States," under "POSITIVE TEST RATE." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. 396 401 3
53 [{"name":"Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be an election before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). 275 276 3
54 [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. 96 97 2
55 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). 140 142 3
56 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). 153 157 3
57 [{"name":"Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. 404 407 3
58 [{"name":"Yes, only by the FDA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only by the EMA","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. 367 3
59 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. 253 254 3
60 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). 318 319 3
61 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. 238 239 3
62 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting "Region" to "Europe," and "Type" to "Monthly." After selecting a particular monthly report, see "Occupancy" under the "Euro Constant currency" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020)) 336 340 3
63 [{"name":"Yes, only Michael Kovrig","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Michael Spavor","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). 264 267 3
64 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. 214 216 3
65 [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April and 30 June 2021","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April and 30 June 2021","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. 209 210 3
66 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). 74 2
67 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).  328 330 3
68 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. 95 2
69 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 66 2
70 [{"name":"Less than $2.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $2.50 but less than $3.00","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). 182 185 3
71 [{"name":"Yes, only for president","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only for parliament","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, for both president and parliament","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). 100 102 2 3
72 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). 322 323 3
73 [{"name":"A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another candidate","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another candidate","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. 143 145 3
74 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). 435 439 3
75 [{"name":"Nguyễn Thị Kim Ngân","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nguyễn Xuân Phúc","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Trần Quốc Vượng","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader), [Vietnam Times](https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html)). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/)). NOTE 26 January 2021: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close "A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021." 269 270 3
76 [{"name":"Less than 5.0%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.0%","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. 472 473 3
77 [{"name":"Zero","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Zero","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). 1069 1075 3
78 [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"350,000 or more","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"350,000 or more","probability":0.73,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. 452 458 3
79 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). 285 3
80 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&amp;f=W)). 418 421 3
81 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). 427 428 3
82 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). 211 3
83 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. 284 285 3
84 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). 261 264 3
85 [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). 257 3
86 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers), [National Interest](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/)). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info](https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea), [Inquirer.net](https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-lorenzana). 412 414 3
87 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736)). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559)). 525 3
88 [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021. 148 3
89 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). 199 3
90 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. 281 282 3
91 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). 247 3
92 [{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.82,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). 1172 1184 3
93 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). 259 262 3
94 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). 182 3
95 [{"name":"0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. 139 3
96 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  123 3
97 [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. 457 459 3
98 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. 611 614 3
99 [{"name":"Less than 2.00%","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.00%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 2.00%","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.00%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). 249 251 3
100 [{"name":"Less than 1.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 million","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 million","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. 401 407 3
101 [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). 386 3
102 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them. NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be "at sea." 403 3
103 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 203 204 3
104 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). 373 374 3
105 [{"name":"England","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Italy","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Spain","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another country","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2020-21 final winner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). 265 271 3
106 [{"name":"Before 19 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 24 May 2021","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). 601 605 3
107 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). 1024 1030 3
108 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. 356 3
109 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. 301 3
110 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. 626 628 3
111 [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 October 2021","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. 739 742 3
112 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 195 3
113 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 311 3
114 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). 551 553 3
115 [{"name":"2 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or more","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. 458 3
116 [{"name":"Before 1 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. 207 208 3
117 [{"name":"Fewer than 25,000","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. 336 3
118 [{"name":"Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. 258 260 3
119 [{"name":"0","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1 or 2","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or 4","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). 259 260 3
120 [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. 543 3
121 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0b68676a79626d62686a7f626465784b6c64646f617e6f6c666e657f2568646634787e69616e687f365a7e6e787f6264652e393b48676a79626d62686a7f626465). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#583b34392a313e313b392c3137362b183f37373c322d3c3f353d362c763b3735672b2d3a323d3b2c65092d3d2b2c3137367d6a681b34392a313e313b392c313736). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 278 279 3
122 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f4979895869d929d9795809d9b9a87b4939b9b909e81909399919a80da979b99cb8781969e919780c9a5819187809d9b9ad1c6c4b79895869d929d9795809d9b9a). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#99faf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7ead9fef6f6fdf3ecfdfef4fcf7edb7faf6f4a6eaecfbf3fcfaeda4c8ecfceaedf0f6f7bcaba9daf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 575 3
123 [{"name":"Yes, a firm","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, a paid backup driver","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. 228 3
124 [{"name":"Fewer than 2.2 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.0 million","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. 224 225 3
125 [{"name":"Fewer than 5,300","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,500","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 5,300","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,500","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." 217 220 3
126 [{"name":"Fewer than 2.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#31525d5043585758525045585e5f4271565e5e555b4455565c545f451f525e5c0e4244535b5452450c6044544245585e5f140301725d5043585758525045585e5f). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#53303f32213a353a3032273a3c3d2013343c3c37392637343e363d277d303c3e6c202631393630276e02263620273a3c3d766163103f32213a353a3032273a3c3d). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 1055 1057 3
127 [{"name":"Yes, the Olympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, the Paralympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, the Olympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, the Paralympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3d5e515c4f545b545e5c495452534e7d5a5252595748595a50585349135e5250024e485f57585e49006c48584e49545253180f0d7e515c4f545b545e5c49545253). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4d2e212c3f242b242e2c392422233e0d2a2222292738292a20282339632e2220723e382f27282e39701c38283e39242223687f7d0e212c3f242b242e2c39242223). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 1319 1324 3
128 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#76151a17041f101f1517021f19180536111919121c0312111b1318025815191b490503141c1315024b27031305021f1918534446351a17041f101f1517021f1918). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b0d3dcd1c2d9d6d9d3d1c4d9dfdec3f0d7dfdfd4dac5d4d7ddd5dec49ed3dfdd8fc3c5d2dad5d3c48de1c5d5c3c4d9dfde958280f3dcd1c2d9d6d9d3d1c4d9dfde). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 230 3
129 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#2b48474a59424d42484a5f424445586b4c44444f415e4f4c464e455f0548444614585e49414e485f167a5e4e585f4244450e191b68474a59424d42484a5f424445). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 946 949 3
130 [{"name":"Fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2,200,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2,200,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. 277 278 3
131 [{"name":"Less than 25,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than 35,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 40,000","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 25,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than 35,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 40,000","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". 265 266 3
132 [{"name":"0","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#25464944574c434c4644514c4a4b5665424a4a414f50414248404b510b464a481a5650474f4046511874504056514c4a4b001715664944574c434c4644514c4a4b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b6d5dad7c4dfd0dfd5d7c2dfd9d8c5f6d1d9d9d2dcc3d2d1dbd3d8c298d5d9db89c5c3d4dcd3d5c28be7c3d3c5c2dfd9d8938486f5dad7c4dfd0dfd5d7c2dfd9d8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 373 375 3
133 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. 181 3
134 [{"name":"Less than $80 per kWh","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $140 per kWh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). 253 254 3
135 [{"name":"Less than 2.5%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.5%","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. 385 386 3
136 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. 258 3
137 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. 293 3
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data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
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data/hypermind-questions.csv
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@ -3,31 +3,31 @@
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",,3
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",,3
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5865384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14423076923076925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6372549019607843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1568627450980392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.1764705882352941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",,3
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.548076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.17307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",,3
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.9595959595959598,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.020202020202020204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.020202020202020204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.14953271028037382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.16822429906542055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.23364485981308414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.23364485981308414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.19626168224299065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)",,3
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.1238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.16190476190476188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.26666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.23809523809523805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)",,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.8431372549019608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",,3
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".",,3
"In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":0.49504950495049505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":0.48514851485148514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",,3
"In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",,3
"In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Bazoum"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamane Ousmane"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No official winner in 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.",,3
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8529411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3
"In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3
"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.8761061946902656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.08849557522123895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.017699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.2178217821782178,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.5247524752475248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.",,3
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.13675213675213674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.2735042735042735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.1282051282051282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.45299145299145294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.",,3
"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.",,3
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.2621359223300971,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.2621359223300971,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.47572815533980584,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>",,3
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",,3
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.19047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.27777777777777773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.0873015873015873,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.1349206349206349,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.3095238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",,3
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":"">= 2,200 USD"",""probability"":0.35135135135135137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""<= 1,700 USD"",""probability"":0.6486486486486487,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)",,3
"What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ $400"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$300, $400["",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$200, $300["",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$100, $200["",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$0, $100["",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$75, $100["",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$50, $75["",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$25, $50["",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$0, $25["",""probability"":0.19047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)",,3
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.3365384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.10576923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.16346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.3076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",,3
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.9047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":"">= 2,200 USD"",""probability"":0.33333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""<= 1,700 USD"",""probability"":0.6666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)",,3
"What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ $400"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$300, $400["",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$200, $300["",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$100, $200["",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$0, $100["",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$75, $100["",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$50, $75["",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$25, $50["",""probability"":0.719626168224299,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""[$0, $25["",""probability"":0.12149532710280374,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)",,3
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3
"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9393939393939396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06060606060606061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",,3
"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6929824561403508,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30701754385964913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",,3
"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","[]","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?""
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:

1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
3 Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America. 3
4 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes, more than 121","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, not more than 121","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics. 3
5 In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) 3
6 Who will be elected president of France in 2022? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pierre de Villiers","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5865384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Valérie Pécresse","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Piolle","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another woman","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another man","probability":0.14423076923076925,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pierre de Villiers","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.548076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Valérie Pécresse","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Piolle","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another woman","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another man","probability":0.17307692307692307,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
7 Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Macron and Le Pen","probability":0.6372549019607843,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Macron, but not Le Pen","probability":0.1568627450980392,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Le Pen, but not Macron","probability":0.1764705882352941,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither of them","probability":0.02941176470588235,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Macron and Le Pen","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Macron, but not Le Pen","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Le Pen, but not Macron","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither of them","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, "Le Pen" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen. 3
8 In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"In June, 2021 (as planned)","probability":0.9595959595959598,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Later in 2021","probability":0.020202020202020204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not in 2021","probability":0.020202020202020204,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
9 In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Nov-Dec, 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"February 2021","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"March 2021","probability":0.14953271028037382,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"April 2021","probability":0.16822429906542055,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"May 2021","probability":0.23364485981308414,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"June 2021","probability":0.23364485981308414,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe after June 2021","probability":0.19626168224299065,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Nov-Dec, 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"February 2021","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"March 2021","probability":0.1238095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"April 2021","probability":0.16190476190476188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"May 2021","probability":0.26666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"June 2021","probability":0.23809523809523805,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe after June 2021","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World) 3
10 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"France","probability":0.12745098039215685,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Japan","probability":0.8431372549019608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same medals count","probability":0.02941176470588235,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H 3
11 Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind [{"name":"Saad-Eddine El Othmani","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdelilah Benkirane","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else from PJD","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else not from PJD","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered "from PJD". 3
12 In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind [{"name":"> 148 (more than currently)","probability":0.49504950495049505,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"128 (absolute majority) to 148 ","probability":0.48514851485148514,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"< 128","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"> 148 (more than currently)","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"128 (absolute majority) to 148 ","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"< 128","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats. 3
13 In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind [{"name":"Mohamed Bazoum","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mahamane Ousmane","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No official winner in 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021. 3
14 In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.030303030303030304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696969696969697,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time). 3
15 In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14705882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8529411764705883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time). 3
16 In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind [{"name":"Denis Sassou Nguesso","probability":0.951923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mathias Dzon","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 3
17 In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind [{"name":"Idriss Déby Itno","probability":0.951923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Saleh Kezabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Succès Masra","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 3
18 In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind [{"name":"Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed","probability":0.8761061946902656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abshir Aden Ferro","probability":0.08849557522123895,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sharif Sheikh Ahmed","probability":0.017699115044247787,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 3
19 When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind [{"name":"Q1, 2021 (or before)","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q2, 2021","probability":0.1188118811881188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q3, 2021","probability":0.2178217821782178,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q4, 2021","probability":0.12871287128712872,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.5247524752475248,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Q1, 2021 (or before)","probability":0.008547008547008546,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q2, 2021","probability":0.13675213675213674,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q3, 2021","probability":0.2735042735042735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q4, 2021","probability":0.1282051282051282,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.45299145299145294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart. 3
20 In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind [{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another Likud politician","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another politician not from Likud","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021. 3
21 In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind [{"name":"Worse than the 2012 record","probability":0.2621359223300971,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012","probability":0.2621359223300971,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not worse than 2020","probability":0.47572815533980584,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a> 3
22 Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind [{"name":"Marcus Söder (CSU)","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet (CDU)","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another member of CDU/CSU","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of SPD","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of the Green party","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September. 3
23 In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind [{"name":"in Q1, 2021","probability":0.19047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q2, 2021","probability":0.27777777777777773,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q3, 2021","probability":0.0873015873015873,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q4, 2021","probability":0.1349206349206349,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Perhaps later","probability":0.3095238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"in Q1, 2021","probability":0.08653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q2, 2021","probability":0.3365384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q3, 2021","probability":0.10576923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q4, 2021","probability":0.16346153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Perhaps later","probability":0.3076923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles. 3
24 When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind [{"name":"In 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q1, 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"In 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q1, 2021","probability":0.09523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.9047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
25 Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind [{"name":">= 2,200 USD","probability":0.35135135135135137,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"<= 1,700 USD","probability":0.6486486486486487,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":">= 2,200 USD","probability":0.33333333333333326,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"<= 1,700 USD","probability":0.6666666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/) 3
26 What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind [{"name":"≥ $400","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$300, $400[","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$200, $300[","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$100, $200[","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$0, $100[","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$75, $100[","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$50, $75[","probability":0.14285714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$25, $50[","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$0, $25[","probability":0.19047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"≥ $400","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$300, $400[","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$200, $300[","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$100, $200[","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$0, $100[","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$75, $100[","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$50, $75[","probability":0.09345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$25, $50[","probability":0.719626168224299,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"[$0, $25[","probability":0.12149532710280374,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME) 3
27 Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind [{"name":"≥ 32,000","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 28,000","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"≥ 32,000","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 28,000","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. 3
28 Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind [{"name":"≥ 6,000","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 5,000","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"≥ 6,000","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 5,000","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. 3
29 Will the new Bond film "No Time to Die" be released in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9393939393939396,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06060606060606061,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM. 3
30 In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6929824561403508,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30701754385964913,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as "Yes" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021. 3
31 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind [] This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate. 3
32 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind [] This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate. 3
33 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind [] This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate. 3

96
data/hypermind-questions.json
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@ -92,7 +92,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
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{
@ -107,7 +107,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"probability": 0.548076923076923,
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},
{
@ -132,7 +132,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Another man",
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"probability": 0.17307692307692307,
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],
@ -146,22 +146,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
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{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
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{
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{
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@ -209,37 +209,37 @@
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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@ -306,17 +306,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "> 148 (more than currently)",
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},
{
"name": "128 (absolute majority) to 148 ",
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{
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],
@ -378,12 +378,12 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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@ -504,27 +504,27 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
@ -625,27 +625,27 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
@ -664,12 +664,12 @@
},
{
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{
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}
],
@ -683,12 +683,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": ">= 2,200 USD",
"probability": 0.35135135135135137,
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},
{
"name": "<= 1,700 USD",
"probability": 0.6486486486486487,
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],
@ -702,47 +702,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "≥ $400",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"probability": 0.6,
"probability": 0.719626168224299,
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},
{
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}
],
@ -756,12 +756,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "≥ 32,000",
"probability": 0.9,
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "≤ 28,000",
"probability": 0.1,
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -775,12 +775,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "≥ 6,000",
"probability": 0.8,
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "≤ 5,000",
"probability": 0.2,
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -813,12 +813,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6929824561403508,
"probability": 0.6875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30701754385964913,
"probability": 0.3125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],

587
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data/omen-questions.csv
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@ -3,7 +3,6 @@
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05619249869291097,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.943807501307089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1
"Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x4a7ccee82790339756a044d7815126f242ab18cd","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7962816778825309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20371832211746907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1
"Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40138120377998826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5986187962200118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1
"When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905","Omen","[{""name"":""Option 0"",""probability"":0.015156614958570477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Option 1"",""probability"":0.015156614958570477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Option 2"",""probability"":0.015156614958570477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Option 3"",""probability"":0.015156614958570477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Option 4"",""probability"":0.9393735401657181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1
"Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1
"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8510322451182969,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14896775488170313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1
"Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdad7da2870846ed40a48cc5485b10d56612a990e","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7706872480787278,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22931275192127215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1

1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
3 Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05619249869291097,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.943807501307089,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1
4 Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process) https://omen.eth.link/#/0x4a7ccee82790339756a044d7815126f242ab18cd Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7962816778825309,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.20371832211746907,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1
5 Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2) https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40138120377998826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5986187962200118,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1
When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905 Omen [{"name":"Option 0","probability":0.015156614958570477,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Option 1","probability":0.015156614958570477,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Option 2","probability":0.015156614958570477,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Option 3","probability":0.015156614958570477,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Option 4","probability":0.9393735401657181,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1
6 Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?) https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1
7 Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8510322451182969,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14896775488170313,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1
8 Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process) https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdad7da2870846ed40a48cc5485b10d56612a990e Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7706872480787278,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22931275192127215,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1

34
data/omen-questions.json
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@ -75,40 +75,6 @@
"description": "",
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905",
"platform": "Omen",
"options": [
{
"name": "Option 0",
"probability": 0.015156614958570477,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 1",
"probability": 0.015156614958570477,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 2",
"probability": 0.015156614958570477,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 3",
"probability": 0.015156614958570477,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 4",
"probability": 0.9393735401657181,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c",

51
data/polymarket-questions.csv
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@ -1,35 +1,24 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.898096828653361895742451832842419"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.101903171346638104257548167157581"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","625",2
"Will the Hawks or the Celtics win their February 17, 2021 matchup?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-hawks-or-the-celtics-win-their-february-17-2021-matchup","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Hawks"",""probability"":""0.9985769100879208266089603190482938"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Celtics"",""probability"":""0.001423089912079173391039680951706173"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on which team will win the February 17th, 2021 matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and the Boston Celtics. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9028474139641530505021689929214884"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.0971525860358469494978310070785116"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","633",2
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.04384333333326966854295219002343513"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9561566666667303314570478099765649"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
","274",2
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.04452440637662096346237815153364262"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9554755936233790365376218484663574"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","2615",2
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9847526057137696726145337672447287"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.01524739428623032738546623275527134"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)","4060",2
"Will Hashmasks be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-hashmasks-be-the-highest-volume-nft-category-by-7-day-volume-on-february-25-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.09784886647734230781952097972023575"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9021511335226576921804790202797643"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the Hashmasks Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Hashmasks is the highest volume NFT by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021, and ""No"" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://opensea.io/rankings sorted by 7-day volume.","210",2
"Will the Mavericks or the Rockets win their February 19th matchup?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-mavericks-or-the-rockets-win-their-february-19th-matchup","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Mavericks"",""probability"":""0.5126451919771450270722133714988353"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rockets"",""probability"":""0.4873548080228549729277866285011647"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on which team will win the February 19th, 2021 matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Houston Rockets. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.","10",2
"Will Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-johnson-and-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9636005933557809988326912945811191"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.03639940664421900116730870541888087"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, and ""No"" otherwise.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","2578",2
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9845412928766598739192929672915038"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.01545870712334012608070703270849618"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)","4046",2
"Will Hashmasks be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-hashmasks-be-the-highest-volume-nft-category-by-7-day-volume-on-february-25-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1354490692596779893290750486161457"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8645509307403220106709249513838543"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the Hashmasks Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Hashmasks is the highest volume NFT by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021, and ""No"" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://opensea.io/rankings sorted by 7-day volume.","198",2
"Will Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-johnson-and-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9631002309204736163888218056764635"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.03689976907952638361117819432353649"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, and ""No"" otherwise.
This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","125",2
"$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.007669394521349913573323951380589446"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9923306054786500864266760486194106"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.
This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","122",2
"$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.02313363461512452084934403365854438"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9768663653848754791506559663414556"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.
Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to ""Yes"".","1906",2
"Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3642827043875029788717086640109072"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6357172956124970211282913359890928"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","243",2
"Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5945985979586345944918821740375526"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4054014020413654055081178259624474"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Novak Djokovic will win the Men's Singles at the Australian Open. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Djokovic wins, and ""No"" otherwise. In the event of any postponement of the Australian Open, this market will not be resolved until the tournament takes place to completion. In the event that the tournament is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source will be https://ausopen.com/. ","318",2
"Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5142276384931051066310181500175302"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4857723615068948933689818499824698"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1311",2
"How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 17, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-17-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Less Than 20"",""probability"":""0.9996660071908931085809655515791122"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20-29"",""probability"":""0.00006759350446567884056053478503335756"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30-39"",""probability"":""0.00007731045003292509459540633570069339"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-49"",""probability"":""0.00006796103490526414142488483313646192"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50-59"",""probability"":""0.00005891642551572057140037965090742418"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 or More"",""probability"":""0.00006221139418730277105324281610978755"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 17, 2021 at 3:00pm EST.
At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,478 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled ""@MCuban"" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.
Neither Mark Cuban, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to ""Yes"". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @MarkCuban will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.
Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","824",2
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.0470874689643365235584990651837402"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9529125310356634764415009348162598"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","56",2
" Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1034503537186229435255207987775941"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8965496462813770564744792012224059"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve ""Yes"" if the aforementioned conditions are met and ""No"" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","255",2
"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on February 24, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-february-24-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3873757546721096209991098570284256"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6126242453278903790008901429715744"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on February 24, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","174",2
"Will the price of Unisocks be above $100,000 on February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-price-of-unisocks-be-above-100000-on-february-28-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2395586525809620837053150821011964"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7604413474190379162946849178988036"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Unisocks Edition 0 $SOCKS will be above $100,000 on February 28th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/unisocks. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if SOCKS is trading above $100,000 according to Coingecko on the resolution date, and “No"" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","200",2
"Will the Heat or the Warriors win their February 17th matchup?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-heat-or-the-warriors-win-their-february-17th-matchup","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Heat"",""probability"":""0.0009052396213112910783582439276469806"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warriors"",""probability"":""0.999094760378688708921641756072353"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on which team will win the February 17th, 2021 matchup between the Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.","366",2
Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to ""Yes"".","1927",2
"Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3740944733871378771100721330216092"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6259055266128621228899278669783908"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","267",2
"Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5529435500339063317213706378502305"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4470564499660936682786293621497695"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Novak Djokovic will win the Men's Singles at the Australian Open. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Djokovic wins, and ""No"" otherwise. In the event of any postponement of the Australian Open, this market will not be resolved until the tournament takes place to completion. In the event that the tournament is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source will be https://ausopen.com/. ","401",2
"New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.824196765112237436589406573158073"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.175803234887762563410593426841927"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.","57",2
"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on February 24, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-february-24-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5157413309091586626423644583141534"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4842586690908413373576355416858466"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on February 24, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","324",2
"Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5329689311043461752705511450693121"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4670310688956538247294488549306879"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1424",2
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.04753816106122730358638395318148025"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9524618389387726964136160468185198"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","63",2
" Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1188815126151356200283627283324027"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8811184873848643799716372716675973"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve ""Yes"" if the aforementioned conditions are met and ""No"" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","259",2
"Will the price of Unisocks be above $100,000 on February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-price-of-unisocks-be-above-100000-on-february-28-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2302998942128838993520596232318804"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7697001057871161006479403767681196"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Unisocks Edition 0 $SOCKS will be above $100,000 on February 28th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/unisocks. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if SOCKS is trading above $100,000 according to Coingecko on the resolution date, and “No"" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","223",2
1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
2 Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.898096828653361895742451832842419","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.101903171346638104257548167157581","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9028474139641530505021689929214884","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.0971525860358469494978310070785116","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 625 633 2
3 Will the Hawks or the Celtics win their February 17, 2021 matchup? Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-hawks-or-the-celtics-win-their-february-17-2021-matchup https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Hawks","probability":"0.9985769100879208266089603190482938","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Celtics","probability":"0.001423089912079173391039680951706173","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.04384333333326966854295219002343513","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9561566666667303314570478099765649","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on which team will win the February 17th, 2021 matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and the Boston Celtics. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/. This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 274 2615 2
4 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.04452440637662096346237815153364262","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9554755936233790365376218484663574","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9847526057137696726145337672447287","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.01524739428623032738546623275527134","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) 2578 4060 2
5 Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021? Will Hashmasks be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-hashmasks-be-the-highest-volume-nft-category-by-7-day-volume-on-february-25-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9845412928766598739192929672915038","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.01545870712334012608070703270849618","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.09784886647734230781952097972023575","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9021511335226576921804790202797643","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) This is a market on whether the Hashmasks Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hashmasks is the highest volume NFT by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021, and "No" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://opensea.io/rankings sorted by 7-day volume. 4046 210 2
6 Will Hashmasks be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021? Will the Mavericks or the Rockets win their February 19th matchup? https://polymarket.com/market/will-hashmasks-be-the-highest-volume-nft-category-by-7-day-volume-on-february-25-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-mavericks-or-the-rockets-win-their-february-19th-matchup PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1354490692596779893290750486161457","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8645509307403220106709249513838543","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Mavericks","probability":"0.5126451919771450270722133714988353","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rockets","probability":"0.4873548080228549729277866285011647","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on whether the Hashmasks Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hashmasks is the highest volume NFT by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021, and "No" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://opensea.io/rankings sorted by 7-day volume. This is a market on which team will win the February 19th, 2021 matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Houston Rockets. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/. 198 10 2
7 Will Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by March 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-johnson-and-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-march-15-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9636005933557809988326912945811191","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.03639940664421900116730870541888087","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on whether Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, and "No" otherwise. This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 125 2
8 $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.007669394521349913573323951380589446","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9923306054786500864266760486194106","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to "Yes". 1927 2
9 Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3740944733871378771100721330216092","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6259055266128621228899278669783908","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 267 2
10 Will Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by March 15, 2021? Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? https://polymarket.com/market/will-johnson-and-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-march-15-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open-1 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9631002309204736163888218056764635","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.03689976907952638361117819432353649","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5529435500339063317213706378502305","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4470564499660936682786293621497695","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on whether Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, and "No" otherwise. This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether Novak Djokovic will win the Men's Singles at the Australian Open. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Djokovic wins, and "No" otherwise. In the event of any postponement of the Australian Open, this market will not be resolved until the tournament takes place to completion. In the event that the tournament is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be https://ausopen.com/. 122 401 2
11 $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021? New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.02313363461512452084934403365854438","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9768663653848754791506559663414556","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.824196765112237436589406573158073","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.175803234887762563410593426841927","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. 1906 57 2
12 Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021? Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on February 24, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-february-24-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3642827043875029788717086640109072","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6357172956124970211282913359890928","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5157413309091586626423644583141534","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4842586690908413373576355416858466","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on February 24, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 243 324 2
Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? https://polymarket.com/market/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open-1 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5945985979586345944918821740375526","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4054014020413654055081178259624474","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on whether Novak Djokovic will win the Men's Singles at the Australian Open. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Djokovic wins, and "No" otherwise. In the event of any postponement of the Australian Open, this market will not be resolved until the tournament takes place to completion. In the event that the tournament is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be https://ausopen.com/. 318 2
Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5142276384931051066310181500175302","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4857723615068948933689818499824698","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 1311 2
13 How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 17, 2021? Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-17-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Less Than 20","probability":"0.9996660071908931085809655515791122","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20-29","probability":"0.00006759350446567884056053478503335756","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30-39","probability":"0.00007731045003292509459540633570069339","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40-49","probability":"0.00006796103490526414142488483313646192","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50-59","probability":"0.00005891642551572057140037965090742418","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60 or More","probability":"0.00006221139418730277105324281610978755","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5329689311043461752705511450693121","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4670310688956538247294488549306879","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 17, 2021 at 3:00pm EST. At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,478 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled "@MCuban" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. Neither Mark Cuban, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to "Yes". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @MarkCuban will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 824 1424 2
14 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.0470874689643365235584990651837402","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9529125310356634764415009348162598","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.04753816106122730358638395318148025","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9524618389387726964136160468185198","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and "No" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/. 56 63 2
15 Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1034503537186229435255207987775941","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8965496462813770564744792012224059","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1188815126151356200283627283324027","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8811184873848643799716372716675973","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve "Yes" if the aforementioned conditions are met and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 255 259 2
16 Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on February 24, 2021? Will the price of Unisocks be above $100,000 on February 28, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-february-24-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-price-of-unisocks-be-above-100000-on-february-28-2021 PolyMarket [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3873757546721096209991098570284256","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6126242453278903790008901429715744","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2302998942128838993520596232318804","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7697001057871161006479403767681196","type":"PROBABILITY"}] This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on February 24, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on if the USD price of Unisocks Edition 0 $SOCKS will be above $100,000 on February 28th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/unisocks. This market will resolve to “Yes" if SOCKS is trading above $100,000 according to Coingecko on the resolution date, and “No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 174 223 2
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data/polymarket-questions.json
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@ -7,36 +7,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.898096828653361895742451832842419",
"probability": "0.9028474139641530505021689929214884",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.101903171346638104257548167157581",
"probability": "0.0971525860358469494978310070785116",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "625",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the Hawks or the Celtics win their February 17, 2021 matchup?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-hawks-or-the-celtics-win-their-february-17-2021-matchup",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on which team will win the February 17th, 2021 matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and the Boston Celtics. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Hawks",
"probability": "0.9985769100879208266089603190482938",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Celtics",
"probability": "0.001423089912079173391039680951706173",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "274",
"numforecasts": "633",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -47,16 +27,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04452440637662096346237815153364262",
"probability": "0.04384333333326966854295219002343513",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9554755936233790365376218484663574",
"probability": "0.9561566666667303314570478099765649",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "2578",
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},
{
@ -67,16 +47,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
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"probability": "0.9847526057137696726145337672447287",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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"probability": "0.01524739428623032738546623275527134",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"numforecasts": "4046",
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{
@ -87,16 +67,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1354490692596779893290750486161457",
"probability": "0.09784886647734230781952097972023575",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8645509307403220106709249513838543",
"probability": "0.9021511335226576921804790202797643",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "198",
"numforecasts": "210",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the Mavericks or the Rockets win their February 19th matchup?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-mavericks-or-the-rockets-win-their-february-19th-matchup",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on which team will win the February 19th, 2021 matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Houston Rockets. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Mavericks",
"probability": "0.5126451919771450270722133714988353",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rockets",
"probability": "0.4873548080228549729277866285011647",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "10",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -107,16 +107,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9631002309204736163888218056764635",
"probability": "0.9636005933557809988326912945811191",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.03689976907952638361117819432353649",
"probability": "0.03639940664421900116730870541888087",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "122",
"numforecasts": "125",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -127,16 +127,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.02313363461512452084934403365854438",
"probability": "0.007669394521349913573323951380589446",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9768663653848754791506559663414556",
"probability": "0.9923306054786500864266760486194106",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1906",
"numforecasts": "1927",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -147,16 +147,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3642827043875029788717086640109072",
"probability": "0.3740944733871378771100721330216092",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6357172956124970211282913359890928",
"probability": "0.6259055266128621228899278669783908",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "243",
"numforecasts": "267",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -167,116 +167,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5945985979586345944918821740375526",
"probability": "0.5529435500339063317213706378502305",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4054014020413654055081178259624474",
"probability": "0.4470564499660936682786293621497695",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "318",
"numforecasts": "401",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021",
"title": "New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"description": "This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5142276384931051066310181500175302",
"probability": "0.824196765112237436589406573158073",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4857723615068948933689818499824698",
"probability": "0.175803234887762563410593426841927",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1311",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 17, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-17-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 17, 2021 at 3:00pm EST.\n\nAt 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,478 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled \"@MCuban\" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Mark Cuban, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to \"Yes\". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @MarkCuban will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less Than 20",
"probability": "0.9996660071908931085809655515791122",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20-29",
"probability": "0.00006759350446567884056053478503335756",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30-39",
"probability": "0.00007731045003292509459540633570069339",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40-49",
"probability": "0.00006796103490526414142488483313646192",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50-59",
"probability": "0.00005891642551572057140037965090742418",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60 or More",
"probability": "0.00006221139418730277105324281610978755",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "824",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0470874689643365235584990651837402",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9529125310356634764415009348162598",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "56",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": " Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the aforementioned conditions are met and \"No\" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1034503537186229435255207987775941",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8965496462813770564744792012224059",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "255",
"numforecasts": "57",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -287,16 +207,76 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3873757546721096209991098570284256",
"probability": "0.5157413309091586626423644583141534",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6126242453278903790008901429715744",
"probability": "0.4842586690908413373576355416858466",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "174",
"numforecasts": "324",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5329689311043461752705511450693121",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4670310688956538247294488549306879",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1424",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04753816106122730358638395318148025",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9524618389387726964136160468185198",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "63",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": " Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the aforementioned conditions are met and \"No\" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1188815126151356200283627283324027",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8811184873848643799716372716675973",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "259",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -307,36 +287,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2395586525809620837053150821011964",
"probability": "0.2302998942128838993520596232318804",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7604413474190379162946849178988036",
"probability": "0.7697001057871161006479403767681196",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "200",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the Heat or the Warriors win their February 17th matchup?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-heat-or-the-warriors-win-their-february-17th-matchup",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on which team will win the February 17th, 2021 matchup between the Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Heat",
"probability": "0.0009052396213112910783582439276469806",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Warriors",
"probability": "0.999094760378688708921641756072353",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "366",
"numforecasts": "223",
"stars": 2
}
]

118
data/predictit-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.8316831683168316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.16831683168316833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or ot
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4215686274509804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5742574257425742,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.42574257425742573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.
Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as cir
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.6315789473684208,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Yang"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julie Su"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Spriggs"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Levin"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sara Nelson"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Perez"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eugene Scalia"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seth Harris"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharon Block"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abby Finkenauer"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Patrick Gaspard"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.026315789473684202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.6499999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Yang"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julie Su"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Spriggs"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Levin"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sara Nelson"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Perez"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eugene Scalia"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seth Harris"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharon Block"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abby Finkenauer"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Patrick Gaspard"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.02499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -69,7 +69,7 @@ Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as cir
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Marcia Fudge"",""probability"":0.6399999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keisha Lance Bottoms"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jane Castor"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alvin Brown"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Bass"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diane Yentel"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maurice Jones"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ben Carson"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Marcia Fudge"",""probability"":0.6785714285714284,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keisha Lance Bottoms"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jane Castor"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alvin Brown"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Bass"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diane Yentel"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maurice Jones"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ben Carson"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:18 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Gina Raimondo"",""probability"":0.6727272727272725,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Meg Whitman"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ray Washburne"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Linda McMahon"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mellody Hobson"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wilbur Ross"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Steyer"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Podesta"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Burns"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Helper"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rohit Chopra"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Indra Nooyi"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Ng"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Gina Raimondo"",""probability"":0.6399999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Meg Whitman"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ray Washburne"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Linda McMahon"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mellody Hobson"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wilbur Ross"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Steyer"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Podesta"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Burns"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Helper"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rohit Chopra"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Indra Nooyi"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Ng"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as cir
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jennifer Granholm"",""probability"":0.8775510204081631,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ernest Moniz"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""E. Sherwood-Randall"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arun Majumdar"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Inslee"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Brouillette"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Reicher"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jennifer Granholm"",""probability"":0.8666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ernest Moniz"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""E. Sherwood-Randall"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arun Majumdar"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Inslee"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Brouillette"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Reicher"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -124,7 +124,7 @@ The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments,
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Deb Haaland"",""probability"":0.3636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Bullock"",""probability"":0.09090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Udall"",""probability"":0.09090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heinrich"",""probability"":0.09090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raul Grijalva"",""probability"":0.09090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Bernhardt"",""probability"":0.09090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Connor"",""probability"":0.09090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carol Moseley Braun"",""probability"":0.09090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Deb Haaland"",""probability"":0.41666666666666674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Bullock"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Udall"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heinrich"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raul Grijalva"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Bernhardt"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Connor"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carol Moseley Braun"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -135,7 +135,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""William Burns"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Donilon"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Avril Haines"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Morell"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gina Haspel"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elissa Slotkin"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Cohen"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Gordon"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Blocker"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vincent Stewart"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeh Johnson"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Monaco"",""probability"":0.0625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""William Burns"",""probability"":0.47619047619047605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Donilon"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Avril Haines"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Morell"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gina Haspel"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elissa Slotkin"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Cohen"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Gordon"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Blocker"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vincent Stewart"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeh Johnson"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Monaco"",""probability"":0.0476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -146,7 +146,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:23 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Miguel Cardona"",""probability"":0.8088235294117646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lily Eskelsen Garcia"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Randi Weingarten"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""L. Darling-Hammond"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Gutmann"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Betsy DeVos"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jahana Hayes"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tony Thurmond"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Freeman A. Hrabowski"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonja Santelises"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eduardo Padrón"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sean Spiller"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Leslie Fenwick"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharon Contreras"",""probability"":0.014705882352941173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Miguel Cardona"",""probability"":0.8243243243243242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lily Eskelsen Garcia"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Randi Weingarten"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""L. Darling-Hammond"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Gutmann"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Betsy DeVos"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jahana Hayes"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tony Thurmond"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Freeman A. Hrabowski"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonja Santelises"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eduardo Padrón"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sean Spiller"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Leslie Fenwick"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharon Contreras"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -162,7 +162,7 @@ Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as cir
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tom Vilsack"",""probability"":0.8999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heidi Heitkamp"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marcia Fudge"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cheri Bustos"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonny Perdue"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chellie Pingree"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Theresa Greenfield"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arturo Rodriguez"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathleen Merrigan"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Ross"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Bullock"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tom Vilsack"",""probability"":0.8990825688073394,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heidi Heitkamp"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marcia Fudge"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cheri Bustos"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonny Perdue"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chellie Pingree"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Theresa Greenfield"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arturo Rodriguez"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathleen Merrigan"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Ross"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Bullock"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -173,7 +173,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:18 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michael Regan"",""probability"":0.7755102040816325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Nichols"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Inslee"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather McTeer Toney"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Wheeler"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Esty"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Collin O'Mara"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Revesz"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mustafa Santiago Ali"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gina McCarthy"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brenda Mallory"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0.020408163265306117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michael Regan"",""probability"":0.7708333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Nichols"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Inslee"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather McTeer Toney"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Wheeler"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Esty"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Collin O'Mara"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Revesz"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mustafa Santiago Ali"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gina McCarthy"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brenda Mallory"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0.02083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -220,7 +220,7 @@ For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the At
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.33333333333333337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Reed"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Zients"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Deese"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russell Vought"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.08333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.4285714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Reed"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Zients"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Deese"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russell Vought"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -231,7 +231,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Katherine Tai"",""probability"":0.19047619047619044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jimmy Gomez"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nelson Cunningham"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thea Mei Lee"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Wessel"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beth Baltzan"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sherrod Brown"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron Kind"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cedric Richmond"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Lighthizer"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Miriam Sapiro"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Hillman"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Todd Tucker"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cathy Feingold"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Perriello"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Newhouse"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Katherine Tai"",""probability"":0.37037037037037024,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jimmy Gomez"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nelson Cunningham"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thea Mei Lee"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Wessel"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beth Baltzan"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sherrod Brown"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron Kind"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cedric Richmond"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Lighthizer"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Miriam Sapiro"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Hillman"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Todd Tucker"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cathy Feingold"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Perriello"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Newhouse"",""probability"":0.03703703703703702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -248,16 +248,16 @@ The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments,
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8712871287128713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.417391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.19999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.14782608695652175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.0608695652173913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.0608695652173913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4137931034482758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.1982758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.13793103448275862,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.06896551724137931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.051724137931034475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.025862068965517238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.025862068965517238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.017241379310344827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.017241379310344827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
@ -283,7 +283,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6039603960396039,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39603960396039606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.40196078431372545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
@ -299,7 +299,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Samantha Power"",""probability"":0.857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ertharin Cousin"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Schrayer"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frederick Barton"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Konyndyk"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barsa"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ami Bera"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gayle Smith"",""probability"":0.02040816326530612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Samantha Power"",""probability"":0.8444444444444443,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ertharin Cousin"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Schrayer"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frederick Barton"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Konyndyk"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barsa"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ami Bera"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gayle Smith"",""probability"":0.02222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -316,11 +316,11 @@ Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.8877551020408163,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.030612244897959183,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.8431372549019608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -330,7 +330,7 @@ Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.102803738317757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.21495327102803738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.205607476635514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.18691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.102803738317757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.05607476635514018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election.
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.10377358490566037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.25471698113207547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.1981132075471698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.16981132075471697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.10377358490566037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -339,12 +339,12 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.41666666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.39814814814814814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.4128440366972477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.39449541284403666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.24761904761904763,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.12380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.05714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5327102803738317,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.24299065420560748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.14018691588785046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.05607476635514018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
@ -352,18 +352,18 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
",,2
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.17647058823529405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.12605042016806717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.11764705882352938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.0672268907563025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.0672268907563025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.05042016806722687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.05042016806722687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.05042016806722687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.042016806722689065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.042016806722689065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.042016806722689065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.042016806722689065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.042016806722689065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.03361344537815125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.025210084033613436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.025210084033613436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.1858407079646017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.13274336283185836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.12389380530973448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.07079646017699114,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.06194690265486724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.05309734513274335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.05309734513274335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.04424778761061946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.04424778761061946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.04424778761061946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.03539823008849557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.03539823008849557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.03539823008849557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.03539823008849557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.026548672566371674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.017699115044247784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.39583333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.36458333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.07291666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.062499999999999986,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.031249999999999993,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.031249999999999993,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.40624999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.35416666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.07291666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.062499999999999986,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.031249999999999993,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.031249999999999993,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.1588785046728972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.21495327102803738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.2336448598130841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.13084112149532712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.16346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.22115384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.24038461538461536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.14423076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5393258426966291,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.3033707865168539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07865168539325842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.06741573033707864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.011235955056179773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5581395348837208,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.2790697674418604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.0813953488372093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.0697674418604651,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.011627906976744184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
@ -373,7 +373,7 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.05714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.6330275229357797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.045871559633027525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.08256880733944953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.08256880733944953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.08256880733944953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
@ -394,7 +394,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5353535353535354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.050505050505050504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.0707070707070707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.0909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.0909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.0808080808080808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.0404040404040404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.0202020202020202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jennifer Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5918367346938775,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.05102040816326531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.0816326530612245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.0816326530612245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.061224489795918366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.030612244897959183,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jennifer Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Granholm be confirmed to position of Secretary of Energy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
@ -409,18 +409,18 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7425742574257426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.25742574257425743,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.8155339805825242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.7809523809523808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Fudge be confirmed to position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.5050505050505051,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.22222222222222224,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.08080808080808081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.06060606060606061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.04040404040404041,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.020202020202020204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.4857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.19047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.12380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
@ -428,14 +428,14 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15","PredictIt","[{""name"":""58 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.038834951456310676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.1553398058252427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.18446601941747573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 or more"",""probability"":0.4368932038834951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15","PredictIt","[{""name"":""58 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.058252427184466014,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.10679611650485436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.1553398058252427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.1941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 or more"",""probability"":0.4077669902912621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Thomas-Greenfield be confirmed to position of Ambassador to the United Nations in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""58 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""83 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""4 or fewer"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or 10"",""probability"":0.2545454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.45454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.1909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.045454545454545456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or more"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below.
"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""4 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or 10"",""probability"":0.24324324324324323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.4504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.19819819819819817,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.05405405405405405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or more"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
@ -448,7 +448,7 @@ End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.09259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.17592592592592593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.24074074074074073,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.23148148148148145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.19444444444444442,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.10377358490566037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.18867924528301888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.25471698113207547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.22641509433962262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.16037735849056603,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Vilsack be confirmed to position of Secretary of Agriculture in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
@ -469,7 +469,7 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural vote
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm Miguel Cardona as Education Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7101/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Miguel-Cardona-as-Education-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""64 or fewer"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.18269230769230768,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.14423076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.14423076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 or more"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Miguel Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm Miguel Cardona as Education Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7101/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Miguel-Cardona-as-Education-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""64 or fewer"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.18095238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.11428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 or more"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Miguel Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Cardona be confirmed to position of Secretary of Education in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""64 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""89 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
@ -485,29 +485,29 @@ Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, th
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.6521739130434782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.19130434782608693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.05217391304347825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.7129629629629629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.14814814814814814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8058252427184466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.038834951456310676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.7999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5151515151515151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.48484848484848486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.20952380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.18095238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.1619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Regan be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.27358490566037735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.
"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.4953271028037383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.2803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.11214953271028036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
@ -525,18 +525,18 @@ Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a t
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.41904761904761906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6078431372549019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39215686274509803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.09183673469387756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.09183673469387756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.14285714285714288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.163265306122449,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.1836734693877551,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.14285714285714288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.061224489795918366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.04081632653061225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.07368421052631578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.07368421052631578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.09473684210526313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.14736842105263157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.1789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.15789473684210523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.15789473684210523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.05263157894736841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.04210526315789473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.021052631578947364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.1111111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.40404040404040403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.303030303030303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.0808080808080808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.0404040404040404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.0202020202020202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.1111111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.3939393939393939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.303030303030303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.0909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.0404040404040404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.0202020202020202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.0101010101010101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Becerra be confirmed to position of Secretary of Health and Human Services in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""82 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
@ -544,12 +544,12 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.3999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.1789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.1789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.08421052631578946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.05263157894736841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.05263157894736841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.03157894736842105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.010526315789473682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.010526315789473682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').
"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.3799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.16999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.009999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.009999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.25999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.15999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.13999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.08999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.06999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.059999999999999984,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.029999999999999992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.24752475247524747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.20792079207920786,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.1386138613861386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.1287128712871287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.0693069306930693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.05940594059405939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.05940594059405939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"".
@ -559,7 +559,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01801801801801802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.00900900900900901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.00900900900900901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.00900900900900901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.00900900900900901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.01801801801801802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.01801801801801802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.03603603603603604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.08108108108108109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.1711711711711712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.2792792792792793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.3423423423423424,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.
"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.06363636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.1727272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.35454545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
@ -574,17 +574,17 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
",,2
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.348314606741573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.24719101123595502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.1685393258426966,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.15730337078651685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.022471910112359546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.011235955056179773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.011235955056179773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.011235955056179773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.011235955056179773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.011235955056179773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.37499999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.22916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.19791666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.12499999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.020833333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.010416666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.010416666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.010416666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.010416666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.010416666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.7352941176470588,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.2549019607843137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.7524752475247525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.2376237623762376,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.09523809523809522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 52"",""probability"":0.2952380952380952,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53 to 55"",""probability"":0.2666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 to 58"",""probability"":0.16190476190476188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 or more"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.07142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 52"",""probability"":0.27678571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53 to 55"",""probability"":0.2589285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 to 58"",""probability"":0.15178571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.07142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.05357142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.044642857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.02678571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 or more"",""probability"":0.03571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""74 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
@ -592,33 +592,37 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,2
"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.33663366336633666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.0891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.0891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.6914893617021276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.23404255319148934,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.0425531914893617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.02127659574468085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.010638297872340425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.6923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.23076923076923075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.054945054945054944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.010989010989010988,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.010989010989010988,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6874999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.14583333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.062499999999999986,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.062499999999999986,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.04166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.782051282051282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.10256410256410256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06410256410256411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.03846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.01282051282051282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.07142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.03061224489795918,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.05102040816326531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.26530612244897955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.22448979591836732,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.05102040816326531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.01020408163265306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.01020408163265306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.
"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.0736842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.03157894736842105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.0631578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.1473684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.2631578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.23157894736842105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.1263157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.042105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.010526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.010526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.3220338983050847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.25423728813559315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.25423728813559315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.0847457627118644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.0847457627118644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.31034482758620685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.27586206896551724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.2586206896551724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.10344827586206895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.051724137931034475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6138613861386139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38613861386138615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6633663366336634,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.33663366336633666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5612244897959184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4387755102040816,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,2
1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
2 Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District PredictIt [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.8316831683168316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.16831683168316833,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
3 Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election PredictIt [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5238095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4380952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Libertarian","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
4 Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election PredictIt [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5490196078431373,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.45098039215686275,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) 2
5 Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election PredictIt [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5784313725490196,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.4215686274509804,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5742574257425742,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.42574257425742573,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
15 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt [{"name":"Gina Raimondo","probability":0.6727272727272725,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Meg Whitman","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terry McAuliffe","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ray Washburne","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Linda McMahon","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mellody Hobson","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wilbur Ross","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Steyer","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gene Sperling","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neera Tanden","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Podesta","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Boushey","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ursula Burns","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Helper","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rohit Chopra","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Indra Nooyi","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Ng","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Gina Raimondo","probability":0.6399999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Meg Whitman","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terry McAuliffe","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ray Washburne","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Linda McMahon","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mellody Hobson","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wilbur Ross","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Steyer","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gene Sperling","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neera Tanden","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Podesta","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Boushey","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ursula Burns","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Helper","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rohit Chopra","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Indra Nooyi","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Ng","probability":0.019999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:14 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. 2
16 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt [{"name":"Alejandro Mayorkas","probability":0.9519230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Becerra","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Val Demings","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stephen Miller","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Monaco","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) 2
17 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt [{"name":"Jennifer Granholm","probability":0.8775510204081631,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ernest Moniz","probability":0.02040816326530612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"E. Sherwood-Randall","probability":0.02040816326530612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Arun Majumdar","probability":0.02040816326530612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jay Inslee","probability":0.02040816326530612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Brouillette","probability":0.02040816326530612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Reicher","probability":0.02040816326530612,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Jennifer Granholm","probability":0.8666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ernest Moniz","probability":0.02222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"E. Sherwood-Randall","probability":0.02222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Arun Majumdar","probability":0.02222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jay Inslee","probability":0.02222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Brouillette","probability":0.02222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Reicher","probability":0.02222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:21 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. 2
18 Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt [{"name":"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) 2
19 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt [{"name":"Deb Haaland","probability":0.3636363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Bullock","probability":0.09090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Udall","probability":0.09090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Heinrich","probability":0.09090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raul Grijalva","probability":0.09090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Bernhardt","probability":0.09090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Connor","probability":0.09090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carol Moseley Braun","probability":0.09090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Deb Haaland","probability":0.41666666666666674,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Bullock","probability":0.08333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Udall","probability":0.08333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Heinrich","probability":0.08333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raul Grijalva","probability":0.08333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Bernhardt","probability":0.08333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Connor","probability":0.08333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carol Moseley Braun","probability":0.08333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. 2
20 Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1 PredictIt [{"name":"William Burns","probability":0.3125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Donilon","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Avril Haines","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Morell","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gina Haspel","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elissa Slotkin","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Cohen","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Gordon","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darrell Blocker","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vincent Stewart","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeh Johnson","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Monaco","probability":0.0625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"William Burns","probability":0.47619047619047605,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Donilon","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Avril Haines","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Morell","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gina Haspel","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elissa Slotkin","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Cohen","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Gordon","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darrell Blocker","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vincent Stewart","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeh Johnson","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Monaco","probability":0.0476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:23 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. 2
21 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1 PredictIt [{"name":"Miguel Cardona","probability":0.8088235294117646,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lily Eskelsen Garcia","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Randi Weingarten","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"L. Darling-Hammond","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Gutmann","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Betsy DeVos","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jahana Hayes","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tony Thurmond","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Freeman A. Hrabowski","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonja Santelises","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eduardo Padrón","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sean Spiller","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Leslie Fenwick","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sharon Contreras","probability":0.014705882352941173,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Miguel Cardona","probability":0.8243243243243242,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lily Eskelsen Garcia","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Randi Weingarten","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"L. Darling-Hammond","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Gutmann","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Betsy DeVos","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jahana Hayes","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tony Thurmond","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Freeman A. Hrabowski","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonja Santelises","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eduardo Padrón","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sean Spiller","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Leslie Fenwick","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sharon Contreras","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:19 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. 2
36 Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary PredictIt [{"name":"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
37 Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021 PredictIt [{"name":"Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) 2
38 Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 PredictIt [{"name":"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
39 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 PredictIt [{"name":"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) 2
40 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary PredictIt [{"name":"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
41 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 PredictIt [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6039603960396039,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.39603960396039606,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.40196078431372545,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
42 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 PredictIt [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5544554455445545,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.44554455445544555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
69 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt [{"name":"Jane Timken","probability":0.5050505050505051,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Mandel","probability":0.22222222222222224,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Stivers","probability":0.08080808080808081,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"J. D. Vance","probability":0.06060606060606061,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Jordan","probability":0.04040404040404041,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rob Portman","probability":0.020202020202020204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Husted","probability":0.010101010101010102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Taylor","probability":0.010101010101010102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Renacci","probability":0.010101010101010102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Frank LaRose","probability":0.010101010101010102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brad Wenstrup","probability":0.010101010101010102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Turner","probability":0.010101010101010102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Warren Davidson","probability":0.010101010101010102,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Jane Timken","probability":0.4857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Mandel","probability":0.19047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"J. D. Vance","probability":0.12380952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Stivers","probability":0.06666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Jordan","probability":0.047619047619047616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rob Portman","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Husted","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Taylor","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Renacci","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Frank LaRose","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brad Wenstrup","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Turner","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Warren Davidson","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
70 Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt [{"name":"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) 2
71 How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15 PredictIt [{"name":"58 or fewer","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"59 to 61","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.029126213592233007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.038834951456310676,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.08737864077669902,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.1553398058252427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.18446601941747573,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 or more","probability":0.4368932038834951,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"58 or fewer","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"59 to 61","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.029126213592233007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.058252427184466014,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.10679611650485436,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.1553398058252427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.1941747572815534,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 or more","probability":0.4077669902912621,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Thomas-Greenfield be confirmed to position of Ambassador to the United Nations in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "58 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "83 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) 2
72 How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1 PredictIt [{"name":"4 or fewer","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or 10","probability":0.2545454545454546,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"11 or 12","probability":0.45454545454545453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13 or 14","probability":0.1909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15 or 16","probability":0.045454545454545456,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17 or 18","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19 or 20","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21 or more","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"4 or fewer","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or 10","probability":0.24324324324324323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"11 or 12","probability":0.4504504504504504,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13 or 14","probability":0.19819819819819817,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15 or 16","probability":0.05405405405405405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17 or 18","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19 or 20","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21 or more","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) 2
73 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 PredictIt [{"name":"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) 2
74 How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31 PredictIt [{"name":"70 or fewer","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.09259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 to 88","probability":0.17592592592592593,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"89 to 91","probability":0.24074074074074073,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"92 to 94","probability":0.23148148148148145,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95 or more","probability":0.19444444444444442,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"70 or fewer","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.028301886792452827,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.10377358490566037,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 to 88","probability":0.18867924528301888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"89 to 91","probability":0.25471698113207547,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"92 to 94","probability":0.22641509433962262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95 or more","probability":0.16037735849056603,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Vilsack be confirmed to position of Secretary of Agriculture in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) 2
75 Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1 PredictIt [{"name":"Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) 2
91 Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt [{"name":"Uhuru Kenyatta","probability":0.25999999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Muhammadu Buhari","probability":0.15999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abiy Ahmed","probability":0.13999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdelmadjid Tebboune","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmerson Mnangagwa","probability":0.08999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Félix Tshisekedi","probability":0.06999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nana Akufo-Addo","probability":0.059999999999999984,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kagame","probability":0.04999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi","probability":0.039999999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.029999999999999992,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Uhuru Kenyatta","probability":0.24752475247524747,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdelmadjid Tebboune","probability":0.20792079207920786,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abiy Ahmed","probability":0.1386138613861386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Muhammadu Buhari","probability":0.1287128712871287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Félix Tshisekedi","probability":0.0693069306930693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmerson Mnangagwa","probability":0.05940594059405939,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nana Akufo-Addo","probability":0.05940594059405939,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi","probability":0.029702970297029695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.029702970297029695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kagame","probability":0.029702970297029695,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
92 Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022 PredictIt [{"name":"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
93 How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against PredictIt [{"name":"12 or fewer","probability":0.01801801801801802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13","probability":0.00900900900900901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14","probability":0.00900900900900901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15","probability":0.00900900900900901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16","probability":0.00900900900900901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17","probability":0.01801801801801802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18","probability":0.01801801801801802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19","probability":0.03603603603603604,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20","probability":0.08108108108108109,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21","probability":0.1711711711711712,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22","probability":0.2792792792792793,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23 or more","probability":0.3423423423423424,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"12 or fewer","probability":0.01818181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18","probability":0.01818181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19","probability":0.027272727272727268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20","probability":0.06363636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21","probability":0.1727272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23 or more","probability":0.35454545454545455,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure. The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. 2
94 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust PredictIt [{"name":"Susan Davies","probability":0.348314606741573,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Renata Hesse","probability":0.24719101123595502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terrell McSweeny","probability":0.1685393258426966,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Kanter","probability":0.15730337078651685,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Slaughter","probability":0.022471910112359546,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Deborah Feinstein","probability":0.011235955056179773,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonia Pfaffenroth","probability":0.011235955056179773,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dave Gelfand","probability":0.011235955056179773,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steven Sunshine","probability":0.011235955056179773,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Leibowitz","probability":0.011235955056179773,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Susan Davies","probability":0.37499999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Renata Hesse","probability":0.22916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terrell McSweeny","probability":0.19791666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Kanter","probability":0.12499999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Slaughter","probability":0.020833333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Deborah Feinstein","probability":0.010416666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonia Pfaffenroth","probability":0.010416666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dave Gelfand","probability":0.010416666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steven Sunshine","probability":0.010416666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Leibowitz","probability":0.010416666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) 2
95 Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election PredictIt [{"name":"Andrés Arauz","probability":0.7352941176470588,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guillermo Lasso","probability":0.2549019607843137,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yaku Pérez","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Andrés Arauz","probability":0.7524752475247525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guillermo Lasso","probability":0.2376237623762376,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yaku Pérez","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
96 How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31 PredictIt [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.09523809523809522,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 to 52","probability":0.2952380952380952,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"53 to 55","probability":0.2666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56 to 58","probability":0.16190476190476188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"59 to 61","probability":0.06666666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.038095238095238085,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.028571428571428564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 or more","probability":0.028571428571428564,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.07142857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 to 52","probability":0.27678571428571425,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"53 to 55","probability":0.2589285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56 to 58","probability":0.15178571428571427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"59 to 61","probability":0.07142857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.05357142857142856,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.044642857142857144,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.02678571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 or more","probability":0.03571428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "74 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) 2
97 Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt [{"name":"Suga Yoshihide","probability":0.33663366336633666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro","probability":0.1188118811881188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.10891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.09900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.0891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau","probability":0.0891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.04950495049504951,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.039603960396039604,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan","probability":0.039603960396039604,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping","probability":0.0297029702970297,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Suga Yoshihide","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are "Xi" and "Suga", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. 2
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