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metaforecast/data/elicit-questions.csv

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2Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5647953216374269,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43520467836257315,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]3421
3Will more than 50 people predict on this post?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8202597402597402,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17974025974025976,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2311
4Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36962264150943397,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6303773584905661,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1591
5Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5289130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47108695652173915,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1381
6Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.757280701754386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.242719298245614,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1141
7The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6325352112676056,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3674647887323944,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2131
8Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6183620689655173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.38163793103448274,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1161
9How vivid is your visual imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5068067226890757,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4931932773109243,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1191
10Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4249074074074074,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5750925925925926,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1081
11Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1101
12Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11789999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8821,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1001
13How vivid is your sound imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6116981132075472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3883018867924528,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1061
14Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28802083333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7119791666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]961
15Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4311607142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5688392857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1121
16There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5817721518987341,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4182278481012659,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1581
17How vivid is your taste imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25726190476190475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7427380952380953,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]841
18How vivid is your smell imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25414634146341464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7458536585365854,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]821
19Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2538095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7461904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]841
20How frequently do you think in words?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7812790697674419,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21872093023255812,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]861
21Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1975862068965517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8024137931034483,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]871
22Do you have an internal monologue?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8227500000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1772499999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]801
23How good is your memory?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5265384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4734615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]781
24How vivid is your touch imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3612658227848101,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6387341772151899,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]791
25How much control do you have over your mind?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45592105263157895,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5440789473684211,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]761
26Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42764705882352944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5723529411764705,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]851
27Trump will win a second termhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.462027027027027,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.537972972972973,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]741
28Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24506666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7549333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]751
29Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3156060606060606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6843939393939393,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]661
30Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8951807228915662,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10481927710843375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]831
31Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5xhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6021951219512195,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3978048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]411
32By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5548648648648649,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44513513513513514,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]371
33A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.687142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31285714285714294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]421
34The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try ithttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04614035087719298,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9538596491228071,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]571
35Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6111904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3888095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]421
36Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign statehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007941176470588234,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920588235294118,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]341
37The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]561
38The Pope will be assassinated.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0303125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]321
39PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]401
40Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36911764705882355,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6308823529411764,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]341
41Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47382978723404257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261702127659574,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]471
42"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBChttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9709090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]331
43The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38967741935483874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6103225806451613,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]311
44No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.82125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17874999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]321
45Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5493617021276596,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45063829787234044,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]471
46Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]341
47No military draft in the United States before 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9027272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09727272727272729,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]331
48Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08806451612903227,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9119354838709677,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]311
49Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08678571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9132142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]281
50Trump wins Nobelhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10552631578947368,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8944736842105263,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]381
51Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4023809523809524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5976190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]421
52Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.002307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9976923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
53California will secede from the United States before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006764705882352942,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9932352941176471,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]341
54The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shotshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2762857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7237142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]351
55Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018846153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9811538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
56...be an environmental disaster.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2637037037037037,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7362962962962962,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]271
57Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4684375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5315624999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]321
58"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9030769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
59For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5855882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41441176470588237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]341
60Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07461538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9253846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
61The Singularity will occur by 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35119999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6488,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]251
6250% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2439285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7560714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]281
63Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8411111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15888888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]271
64Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6226923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37730769230769234,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
65By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]241
66PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31120000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]251
67Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19347826086956524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8065217391304348,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]231
68Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33909090909090905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6609090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]331
69The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3745833333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6254166666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]241
70Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20482758620689656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7951724137931034,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]291
71Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.994090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.005909090909090975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]221
72TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5815384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]391
73In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7363999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]251
74...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7019047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2980952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]211
75Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6084375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39156250000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]321
76Google will survive for 15 more yearshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8838095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11619047619047618,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]211
77Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2782857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7217142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]351
78Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21636363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7836363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]221
79Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15333333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]211
80Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04739130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9526086956521739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]231
81Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34127659574468083,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6587234042553192,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]471
82Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8831818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]221
83China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07454545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9254545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]221
84The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7243478260869566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2756521739130434,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]231
85No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.13249999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]241
86...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.484,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.516,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
87Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Strosshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02210526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9778947368421053,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
88Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5694285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4305714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]351
89...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8295,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
90...all-things-considered, be good for the world.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8088888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19111111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]271
91Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8313636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16863636363636358,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]221
92...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3638095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6361904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]211
93Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6031428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]351
9490% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4704761904761905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5295238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]211
95Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9305,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
96Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45799999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
97United States will invade Australia and take overhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]211
98No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7484999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25150000000000006,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
99What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6434000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3565999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]501
100We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8795238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]211
101Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.648,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.352,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]401
102“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
103The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shotshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13772727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8622727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]221
104For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7112499999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]241
105The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decadehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6754545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3245454545454546,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]221
106Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presencehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9668181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]221
107There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6427777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35722222222222233,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
108Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5177777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4822222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
109A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2161904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7838095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]211
110A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6905,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
111The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3326923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6673076923076924,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
112Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26894736842105266,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
113Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12789473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8721052631578947,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
114'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarkehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.982,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]251
115Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6933333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30666666666666675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
116Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4717391304347826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5282608695652173,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]231
117The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2946153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7053846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
118“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]231
119aliens invade earth in 2023https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.009444444444444445,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9905555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
120It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.017222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9827777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
121The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8395238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16047619047619055,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]211
122My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08388888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9161111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
123Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35526315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6447368421052632,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
124Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4288888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5711111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
125The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using "more dakka", for some reasonable version of "more dakka"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20"more%20dakka",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20"more%20dakka"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21529411764705883,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7847058823529411,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
126By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
127US presidents term limits abolishedhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02235294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9776470588235294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
128If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7770588235294117,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2229411764705883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
129A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.049,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.951,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
130Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
131Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19105263157894736,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8089473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
132Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9531578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04684210526315791,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
133An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0811764705882353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9188235294117647,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
134An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5777777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42222222222222217,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
135Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5517647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44823529411764707,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
136Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5689655172413793,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43103448275862066,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]291
137Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4064,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]251
138Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.926875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.073125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
139USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5852941176470589,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
140There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.933125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06687500000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
141A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43473684210526314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5652631578947369,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
142Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03705882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9629411764705882,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
143C still widely in use in the 2020shttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9353333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06466666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
144Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1448,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8552,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]251
145Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.118125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.881875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
146If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7394117647058823,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2605882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
147If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.294375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.705625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
148If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6647058823529411,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33529411764705885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
149The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
150The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7811764705882354,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21882352941176464,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
151Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.23450000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
152Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9299999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
153The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
154A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08785714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9121428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
155By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
156Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.111875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.888125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
157Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47388888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
158The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3026315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6973684210526316,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
159The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09823529411764706,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9017647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
160The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9214285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
161If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17394444444444446,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8260555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
162In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
163"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
164Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8717647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12823529411764711,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
165Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
166"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Millerhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0955,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9045,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]201
167By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28214285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7178571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
168I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8220000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17799999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
169North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05941176470588236,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9405882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]171
170The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11733333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8826666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
171All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04923076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9507692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
17210 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9158333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]361
173Humanity still a thing in 2036https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
174North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
175ETI is AGIhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8461111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15388888888888885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
176If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5135714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.48642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
177We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40842105263157896,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.591578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
178The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4446153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5553846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
179Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]181
180Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
181Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.040769230769230766,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
182By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vancehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44153846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5584615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
183In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1469230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8530769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
184There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7389473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2610526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
185Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6271428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3728571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
186USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.045,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.955,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
187Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hansonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2764285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7235714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
188Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.320625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6793750000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
189Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2978571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7021428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
190Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.853125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14687499999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
191Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from todayhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
192The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
193The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8146153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
194Trump dies of COVID-19https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]321
195By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11076923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8892307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
196By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3830769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6169230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
197Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1336842105263158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8663157894736842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
198"The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
199Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.106875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.893125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
200Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind")https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7324999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
201In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4607142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5392857142857144,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
202'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevinhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8583333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
203Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8683333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1316666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
204Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9535714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
205The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5107142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4892857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
206The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
207There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
208Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.49242424242424243,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5075757575757576,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]331
209Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5246666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4753333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
210If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5689473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]191
211If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
212"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeproghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33461538461538465,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
213100 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007931034482758621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920689655172413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]291
214At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new sitehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21076923076923082,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
215The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
216If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6315384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3684615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
217Alphabet/Google buys Microsofthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07714285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9228571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
218the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshanskyhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9235714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
219Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
220Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3707692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6292307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
221Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.696923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.303076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
222Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8175,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
223“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03833333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9616666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
224We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24333333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
225No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6083333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
2261 year continuous human habitation of the moonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8407142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
227By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweilhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.027333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9726666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
228Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3358333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6641666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
229The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.46692307692307694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.533076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
230“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
231Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adamshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
232Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
233Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013076923076923076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9869230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
234North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
235China will land a man on Mars by 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
236Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6592857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34071428571428575,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
237Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6679999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]151
238Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21272727272727274,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7872727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
239Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10181818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8981818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
240SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
241"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adamshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7927272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
242Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2809090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7190909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
243Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
244With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08923076923076924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
24550 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.016470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9835294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]341
246Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8921428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
247The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28428571428571425,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7157142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
248Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9458333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
249"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5621428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43785714285714283,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
250As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6778571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32214285714285706,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
251Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6836363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
252A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6136363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
253At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7091666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
254Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23377083333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7662291666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]241
255Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26272727272727275,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7372727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
256The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4081818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5918181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]221
257The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]261
258"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
259The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]251
260Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43000000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
261By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31384615384615383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6861538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
262No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demohttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45307692307692304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.546923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
263Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6866666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31333333333333324,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
264In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
265some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 yearshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9623076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
266Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10285714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8971428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
267The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5407692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
268The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4314285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
269Republicans will win the 2024 presidential electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.543076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
270At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
271Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9646153846153847,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
272Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44083333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5591666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
273By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9325,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.0675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
274"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessenhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7516666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2483333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
275"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Manganhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6481818181818181,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3518181818181819,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
276GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4153846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5846153846153845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
277Trump will run for president in 2024https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7961538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
278The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.024166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9758333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
279“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
280They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5557142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4442857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
281We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5269230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47307692307692306,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
282Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7525,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
283People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
284'President Mike Pence'https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.140625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.859375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
285“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Andersonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
286Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
287No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7783333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22166666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
288Trump wins the 2020 election.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4753846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5246153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
289“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9258333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
290By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3346153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6653846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
291Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7709999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2290000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
292Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2907692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7092307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
293By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.309,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6910000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
294What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09571428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9042857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
295Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]161
296Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.467,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5329999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
297At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
298We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17923076923076922,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8207692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
299Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.27785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7221428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
300By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8691666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
301Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.261,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
302Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8908333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
303Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.887,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
304By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearcehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
305Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Greyhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13142857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
306Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2963636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
307By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
308By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.750909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.24909090909090903,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
3091,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
310Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
311Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.556,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44399999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
312Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
313In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbughttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09357142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9064285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
314Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Marshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17300000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.827,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
315Caitlyn Jenner = POTUShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.958,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
316The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.789,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21099999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
317Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7791666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
318SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
319No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5272727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
320“China will break apart by 2030”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24600000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.754,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
321Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.198,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.802,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
322More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7361538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
323A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8790909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
324By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
325A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
326HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4309090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
327“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
328". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan Kinghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]131
329Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9863636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
330Airbnb to be acquired by 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3463636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6536363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
331WWIII starts before 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08857142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9114285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]141
332In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.796,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
333HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9290909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
334The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.060909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9390909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
335Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
336Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on ithttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.783,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101
337P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Kenhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44166666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5583333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]121
338EU to dissolve by 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39454545454545453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6054545454545455,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]111
339homosexuality criminalized in the UShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]101