2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
[
{
"title" : "Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.347Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "% global rate of \"$1.90 a day\" poverty in 2030" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.347Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.06 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.94 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.347Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 4 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.15 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.85 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many papers will cite \"Logical Induction\" by Garrabrant, S. et al. at the end of 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/12d6442f-3f73-43af-a5b5-de66df236bde" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many papers will cite \"Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems\" by Hubinger, E. et al. at the end of 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/85769e44-27fe-4f28-aff2-16ffc735c573" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.65 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.35 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 4.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.695 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.30500000000000005 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.245 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.755 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 7.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 4 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.350Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 7 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.350Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.351Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.351Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.352Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.352Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 15 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.352Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.355Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.355Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.356Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 6 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.357Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 6.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will MIRI still exist in 2023?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.9233333333333333 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.07666666666666666 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.357Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 7 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.358Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.7 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.30000000000000004 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.358Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.359Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 8 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many papers will cite \"Embedded Agency\" by Demski, A. and Garrabrant, S. at the end of 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/2336bbb0-538b-44c4-a48d-04c9c5e842de" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.359Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 7 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 4 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 4 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 4 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.7333333333333333 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.2666666666666667 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.8166666666666668 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.18333333333333324 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.44666666666666666 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.5533333333333333 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.49666666666666665 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.5033333333333334 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.7866666666666667 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.21333333333333326 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.8533333333333333 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.14666666666666672 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.7666666666666667 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.23333333333333328 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.8333333333333333 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.16666666666666674 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dd958638-c4fd-4b91-831c-ca3289ddc4ee" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 6 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/61187fa6-4bb5-42ab-acb5-c3a68e109353" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 4 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2020?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/aa037535-a09e-464e-bc64-90964df4cf9f" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.825 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.17500000000000004 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.363Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.59 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.41000000000000003 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.363Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 6 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.575 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.42500000000000004 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.363Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.24 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.76 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.363Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will there be more new COVID-19 cases this year than new HIV infections?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/8f14e026-51a8-4fca-920f-d29b37f61763" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.7 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.30000000000000004 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.858Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 8 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 15 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.02 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.98 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 9.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 27 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 49.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "When will the outbreak end?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 25.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.502Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.502Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.503Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.503Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.503Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.503Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.504Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.504Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.504Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.505Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.505Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 4.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.505Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:36.505Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.094Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 6.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.094Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.094Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.3 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.7 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.095Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.6 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.4 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.095Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.095Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will Labour win the next election?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.35 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.65 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 7 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will Conservatives win the next election?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.65 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.35 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 9.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.71 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.29000000000000004 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 2 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.6 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.4 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.1 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.9 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will Brexit be a hard Brexit?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.5 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.5 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.4 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.6 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "When will the next UK general election be?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 4 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.05 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.95 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.32 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.6799999999999999 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 11.5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [
{
"name" : "Yes" ,
"probability" : 0.01 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
} ,
{
"name" : "No" ,
"probability" : 0.99 ,
"type" : "PROBABILITY"
}
] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 5 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 1 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.098Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
} ,
{
"title" : "What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024?" ,
"url" : "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8" ,
"platform" : "Foretold" ,
"description" : "" ,
"options" : [ ] ,
2021-04-08 16:42:48 +00:00
"timestamp" : "2021-04-08T09:51:37.098Z" ,
2021-04-08 08:45:12 +00:00
"qualityindicators" : {
"numforecasts" : 3 ,
"stars" : 2
}
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
}
]
