nunosempere.github.io/ea/Forecasting/ListOfForecastingProjects.md

1.4 KiB

List of forecasting projects:

  • Have forecasters read Toby Ord's book, and generate their own probabilities of x-risks
  • Forecast variable inputs to Trammell's model
  • Forecast whether some big companies will keep to their chicken broiler / animal suffering commitments
  • Forecast the value of altruistic projects; I (Nuño) have a small demo on this
  • Throw some optimization power at the Metaculus Ragnarok questions
  • Look into the relationship between price or time spent and forecast accuracy
  • Look into rewarding forecasters according to their Shapley values
  • Predict which EA Fund applications will be funded
  • Add interesting and nontrivial markets to Augur
  • Rapid Response EA Forecasting Hotline
  • Forecast incubator ideas' likelihood of success
  • Create a calibration hall of fame/shame for researchers' past forecasts
  • Case studies / lessons learned on forecasting
  • Pay and support forecasters to make forecasts on existing platforms
  • Get a visible forecasting win for EA/QURI/EpiFor
  • Participate in an OSINT project
  • Suggest questions to Good Judgement Open with an altruistic bent
  • Talk with CSET; they seem a little bit confused/lost
  • Recruit people for CSET
  • Forecasting for EA policy advocates
  • Estimate the value of the forecasted variables/questions on Metaculus and GJP
  • On-demand forecasting to research teams
  • Write down lessons learnt from EpidemicForecasting
  • Foretold consulting/training