2020-09-29 14:59:10 +00:00
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# List of forecasting projects:
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- Have forecasters read Toby Ord's book, and generate their own probabilities of x-risks
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2020-09-29 15:17:56 +00:00
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- Forecast variable inputs to Trammell's model
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- Forecast whether some big companies will keep to their chicken broiler / animal suffering commitments
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- Forecast the value of altruistic projects; I (Nuño) have a small demo on this
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2020-09-29 14:59:10 +00:00
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- Throw some optimization power at the Metaculus Ragnarok questions
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- Look into the relationship between price or time spent and forecast accuracy
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- Look into rewarding forecasters according to their Shapley values
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- Predict which EA Fund applications will be funded
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2020-09-29 15:17:56 +00:00
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- Add interesting and nontrivial markets to Augur
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2020-09-29 14:59:10 +00:00
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- Rapid Response EA Forecasting Hotline
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- Forecast incubator ideas' likelihood of success
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- Create a calibration hall of fame/shame for researchers' past forecasts
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- Case studies / lessons learned on forecasting
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- Pay and support forecasters to make forecasts on existing platforms
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- Get a visible forecasting win for EA/QURI/EpiFor
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- Participate in an OSINT project
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2020-09-29 15:17:56 +00:00
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- Suggest questions to Good Judgement Open with an altruistic bent
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- Talk with CSET; they seem a little bit confused/lost
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- Recruit people for CSET
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2020-09-29 14:59:10 +00:00
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- Forecasting for EA policy advocates
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- Estimate the value of the forecasted variables/questions on Metaculus and GJP
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- On-demand forecasting to research teams
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- Write down lessons learnt from EpidemicForecasting
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- Foretold consulting/training
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