73 lines
6.6 KiB
Markdown
Executable File
73 lines
6.6 KiB
Markdown
Executable File
## Forecasting
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> Magic ball tell us all.
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>
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> — Misha Yagudin
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### Samotsvety
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My forecasting group is known as Samotsvety. You can read more about it [here](https://samotsvety.org/).
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### Newsletter
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I was reasonably well-known for my monthly forecasting _newsletter_. It can be found both [on Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/) and [on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7). Besides its mothly issues, I've also written:
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- [Tracking the money flows in forecasting](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/11/06/forecasting-money-flows/)
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- [Looking back at 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/looking-back-at-2021)
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- [Forecasting Postmortem: The Fall of Kabul](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/postmortem-the-fall-of-kabul) (paywalled)
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- [2020: Forecasting in Review](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/2020-forecasting-in-review)
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### Research
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I have a few _in depth pieces_ on forecasting, many written during my time at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/), and previously as an independent researcher,
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- [Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11248)
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- [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) and [part 2](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting).
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- [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)
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- [Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dQhjwHA7LhfE8YpYF/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting)
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- [Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tEo5oXeSNcB3sYr8m/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search)
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- [Introduction to Fermi estimates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/)
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- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)
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- [Hurdles of using forecasting as a tool for making sense of AI progress](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/11/07/hurdles-forecasting-ai/)
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I also have a few _minor pieces_:
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- [Betting and consent](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/06/26/betting-consent/)
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- [Incorporate keeping track of accuracy into X (previously Twitter)](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/08/19/keep-track-of-accuracy-on-twitter/)
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- [Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/02/metaphorical-bets/)
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- [Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hugQzRhdGYc6ParJ/metaforecast-update-better-search-capture-functionality-more)
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- [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
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- [Impact markets as a mechanism for not loosing your edge](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/07/impact-markets-sharpen-your-edge/)
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- [An in-progress experiment to test how Laplace’s rule of succession performs in practice.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/30/an-in-progress-experiment-to-test-how-laplace-s-rule-of/)
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- [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)
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- [Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)
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- [Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using)
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- [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
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- [Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html)
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- [Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment)
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- [Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html)
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I also mantain [this database](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XB1GHfizNtVYTOAD_uOyBLEyl_EV7hVtDYDXLQwgT7k/edit#gid=0) of prediction markets.
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### Bayesianism fundamentals
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- [Just-in-time Bayesianism](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/04/just-in-time-bayesianism/)
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- [A computable version of Solomonoff induction](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/01/computable-solomonoff/)
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I also discussed some of these considerations in [Hurdles of using forecasting as a tool for making sense of AI progress](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/11/07/hurdles-forecasting-ai/). They turn out to be important.
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### Funding
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I have occasionally advised philanthropic funders—mostly from the effective altruism community—on forecasting related topics and projects.
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- [$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/23/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top/)
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- [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
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- [We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oqFa8obfyEmvD79Jn/we-are-giving-usd10k-as-forecasting-micro-grants)
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- [$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZrWuy2oAxa6Yh3eAw/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge)
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- [$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/noDYmqoDxYk5TXoNm/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top)
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- I'm in the process of regranting $50k on [Manifund](https://manifund.org/NunoSempere)
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### Squiggle
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I did a bunch of work around Squiggle, a language for creating quick probability estimates. You can read about this [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/squiggle). Unsatisfied with it, I [tried out many different languages](https://git.nunosempere.com/personal/time-to-botec) and [wrote my own version in C](https://git.nunosempere.com/personal/squiggle.c).
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