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forecasting/index.md
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## Forecasting
> Magic ball tell us all.
>
> — Misha Yagudin
### Samotsvety
My forecasting group is known as Samotsvety. You can read more about it [here](https://samotsvety.org/).
### Newsletter
I am perhaps most well-known for my monthly forecasting _newsletter_. It can be found both [on Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/) and [on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7). Besides its mothly issues, I've also written:
I was reasonably well-known for my monthly forecasting _newsletter_. It can be found both [on Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/) and [on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7). Besides its mothly issues, I've also written:
- [Tracking the money flows in forecasting](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/11/06/forecasting-money-flows/)
- [Looking back at 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/looking-back-at-2021)
@ -13,7 +19,7 @@ I am perhaps most well-known for my monthly forecasting _newsletter_. It can be
### Research
As part of my research at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/), and previously as an independent researcher, I have a few _in depth pieces_ on forecasting:
I have a few _in depth pieces_ on forecasting, many written during my time at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/), and previously as an independent researcher,
- [Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11248)
- [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) and [part 2](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting).
@ -22,9 +28,13 @@ As part of my research at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https:
- [Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tEo5oXeSNcB3sYr8m/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search)
- [Introduction to Fermi estimates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/)
- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)
- [Hurdles of using forecasting as a tool for making sense of AI progress](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/11/07/hurdles-forecasting-ai/)
I also have a few _minor pieces_:
- [Betting and consent](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/06/26/betting-consent/)
- [Incorporate keeping track of accuracy into X (previously Twitter)](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/08/19/keep-track-of-accuracy-on-twitter/)
- [Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/02/metaphorical-bets/)
- [Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hugQzRhdGYc6ParJ/metaforecast-update-better-search-capture-functionality-more)
- [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
- [Impact markets as a mechanism for not loosing your edge](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/07/impact-markets-sharpen-your-edge/)
@ -44,18 +54,19 @@ I also mantain [this database](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XB1GHfizN
- [Just-in-time Bayesianism](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/04/just-in-time-bayesianism/)
- [A computable version of Solomonoff induction](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/01/computable-solomonoff/)
I also discussed some of these considerations in [Hurdles of using forecasting as a tool for making sense of AI progress](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/11/07/hurdles-forecasting-ai/). They turn out to be important.
### Funding
I have occasionally advised philanthropic funders—mostly from the effective altruism community—on forecasting related topics and projects.
I have run a few contests:
- [$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/23/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top/)
- [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
- [We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oqFa8obfyEmvD79Jn/we-are-giving-usd10k-as-forecasting-micro-grants)
- [$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZrWuy2oAxa6Yh3eAw/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge)
- [$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/noDYmqoDxYk5TXoNm/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top)
- I'm in the process of regranting $50k on [Manifund](https://manifund.org/NunoSempere)
### Squiggle
I've done bunch of work around Squiggle, a language for creating quick probability estimates. You can read about this [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/squiggle).
I did a bunch of work around Squiggle, a language for creating quick probability estimates. You can read about this [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/squiggle). Unsatisfied with it, I [tried out many different languages](https://git.nunosempere.com/personal/time-to-botec) and [wrote my own version in C](https://git.nunosempere.com/personal/squiggle.c).

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Most of my research can be found [on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere). For forecasting related research, see [forecasting](/forecasting)
For forecasting related research, see [forecasting](/forecasting)
## Current research
## Current projects
Besides forecasting (of probabilities), a major thread in my research is estimation (of values). Pieces related to this topic are:
I'm currently doing [private consulting](https://nunosempere.com/consulting/), and writting up my desillusionment with EA:
- [Some melancholy about the value of my work depending on decisions by others beyond my control](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/07/13/melancholy/)
- [Why are we not harder, better, faster, stronger?](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/07/19/better-harder-faster-stronger/)
- [Brief thoughts on CEA’s stewardship of the EA Forum](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/10/15/ea-forum-stewardship/)
- [Hurdles of using forecasting as a tool for making sense of AI progress](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/11/07/hurdles-forecasting-ai/)
## Past projects
_Estimation of values_
I spent a few years of my life grappling with EA (effective altruism) being nominally about doing the most good, but it not having good tools to identify and prioritize across possible interventions. Eventually I gave up when I got it through my thick head that despite my earlier hopes, there wasn't much demand for the real version of this—as opposed to the fake version of pretending to evaluate stuff, and pretending to be "impact oriented". Still, I think it's an interesting body of research.
- [Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3hH9NRqzGam65mgPG/five-steps-for-quantifying-speculative-interventions)
- [A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/h2N9qEbvQ6RHABcae/a-critical-review-of-open-philanthropy-s-bet-on-criminal)
@ -18,37 +29,47 @@ Besides forecasting (of probabilities), a major thread in my research is estimat
- [A Bayesian Adjustment to Rethink Priorities' Welfare Range Estimates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/19/bayesian-adjustment-to-rethink-priorities-welfare-range-estimates/)
- [Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pqphZhx2nJocGCpwc/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners)
- [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)
- [Relative values for animal suffering and ACE Top Charities](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/05/29/relative-value-animals/)
- [Some estimation work in the horizon](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/20/estimation-in-the-horizon/)
- [Estimation for sanity checks](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/10/estimation-sanity-checks/)
- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)
- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB7/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)
- [Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8XWi8FBkCuKfgPLMZ/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization)
- [Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/21/brief-evaluations-of-top-10-billionnaires/)
- [Use of "I'd bet" on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/02/metaphorical-bets/)
- [Things you should buy, quantified](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/06/things-you-should-buy-quantified/)
- [People’s choices determine a partial ordering over people’s desirability](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/06/17/ordering-romance/)
- [Impact markets as a mechanism for not loosing your edge](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/07/impact-markets-sharpen-your-edge/)
- [Updating in the face of anthropic effects is possible](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/05/11/updating-under-anthropic-effects/)
_Red teaming_
Relatedly, I have an interest in _red teaming_,
If you are trying to be as effective as you can, wouldn't you like someone to point out where you might be going wrong? Not so!
- The [NegativeNuno](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/negativenuno) EA Forum account covers negative criticism that I'm uncertain about.
- A past piece on this topic is [Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7utb4Fc9aPvM6SAEo/frank-feedback-given-to-very-junior-researchers)
## Past projects
In the past, I've been much more eclectic, and explored a variety of topics, such as:
- [A Bayesian Adjustment to Rethink Priorities' Welfare Range Estimates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/19/bayesian-adjustment-to-rethink-priorities-welfare-range-estimates/)
- [A flaw in a simple version of worldview diversification](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/25/worldview-diversification/)
- [Review of Epoch’s Scaling transformative autoregressive models](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/28/expert-review-epoch-direct-approach/)
_Shapley values_:
If you care about doing good together, you should care about how to coordinate on who does which projects. Shapley values solve this, as does adjusting the counterfactual value to be more like Shapley values. I named my consultancy after this concept.
- [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals)
- [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and)
- [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)
_Economic models of social movement growth_:
You can make progress on gnarly economics questions by [throwing](https://github.com/NunoSempere/ReverseShooting/tree/master) compute at [it](https://github.com/NunoSempere/LaborCapitalAndTheOptimalGrowthOfSocialMovements/tree/master). Unfortunately, reality is complicated enough that these models won't capture all the assumptions you care about, and so might not be all that informative in real life.
- [A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FXPaccMDPaEZNyyre/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building)
- [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)
_Categorization of new causes_:
Let's just create some obvious infrastructure to track suggestions that people make!
- [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
- [A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iRA4Dd2bfX9nukSo3/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates)
- [International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability)
@ -56,11 +77,16 @@ _Categorization of new causes_:
_Technological discontinuities_:
People are talking about "technological discontinuities". How often do they happen?
- [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
- [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)
_AI-related_
Is this AI thing going to doom us all?
- [Hurdles of using forecasting as a tool for making sense of AI progress](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/11/07/hurdles-forecasting-ai/)
- [My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/23/my-highly-personal-skepticism-braindump-on-existential-risk/)
- [A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/10/evolutionary-anchor/)
- [There will always be a Voigt-Kampff test](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/21/there-will-always-be-a-voigt-kampff-test/)

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Most of my software projects can be seen in [my github](https://github.com/NunoSempere/), or on the github of the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://github.com/QURIresearch). In recent times, I've been working on [Metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org/), a forecast aggregator, and on [Squiggle](https://www.squiggle-language.com/), a small programming language for estimation.
Many of my software projects can be seen in [my github](https://github.com/NunoSempere/), or on the github of the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://github.com/QURIresearch), where I working on [Metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org/), a forecast aggregator, and on [Squiggle](https://www.squiggle-language.com/), a small programming language for estimation. Currently, I'm also hosting my stuff at [git.nunosempere.com](https://git.nunosempere.com/)
I'm generally excited about Linux development, privacy preserving tools, open source projects, and more generally, software which gives power to the user.
Some miscellaneous programming projects:
- [Webpages I am making available to my corner of the internet](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/08/14/software-i-am-hosting/)
- [A Soothing Frontend for the Effective Altruism Forum](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/18/forum-frontend/)
- [wc: count words in <50 lines of C](https://git.nunosempere.com/personal/wc)
- [Time to botec](https://git.nunosempere.com/personal/time-to-botec): Simple Fermi estimation scripts which do the same in different programming languages.
- [squiggle.c](https://git.nunosempere.com/personal/squiggle.c): A grug-brained, self-contained C99 library that provides a subset of Squiggle's functionality in C.
- [Find a beta distribution that fits your desired confidence interval](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/)
- [Longnow](https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd): A tool for adding (a) for archive.org links to markdown files
- [Labeling](https://github.com/NunoSempere/labeling): An R package which I mantain. It's used in ggplot2, through the scales package, and thus has 500k+ downloads a month.
- [Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally): A small bash utility for making predictions.
- [Q](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2020/12/q-un-programa-para-escribir-y-analizar-poemas-y-poesia.html): A program for analyzing Spanish poetry.
- [Rosebud](https://github.com/NunoSempere/rose-browser), my [personal fork](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/12/20/hacking-on-rose/) of [rose](https://github.com/mini-rose/rose), which is a simple browser written in C. I've been using this as my mainline browser for a bit now, and enjoy the simplicity.
- [Simple Squiggle](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/simple-squiggle), a restricted subset of Squiggle syntax useful for multiplying and dividing lognormal distributions analytically.
- [Time to BOTEC](https://github.com/NunoSempere/time-to-botec): doing simple Fermi estimation in various different programming languages, so far C, R, python, javascript and squiggle.
- [Nuño's stupid node version manager](https://github.com/NunoSempere/nsnvm): Because nvm noticeably slowed down bash startup time, and 20 line of bash can do the job.
- [Werc tweaks](https://github.com/NunoSempere/werc-1.5.0-tweaks). I like the idea behind [werc](https://werc.cat-v.org/), and I've tweaked it a bit when hosting this website
- [German pronoun](https://github.com/NunoSempere/german_pronoun), a small bash script to get the correct gender for german nouns