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Nuno Sempere 2022-08-20 19:10:15 +00:00
parent b014e57f22
commit de54a2462f
8 changed files with 80 additions and 3 deletions
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1
blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/index.md
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@ -22,3 +22,4 @@ Brave people who have taken me up on this offer:
- [@BenRCongdon](https://twitter.com/BenRCongdon) for [this market](https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-i-run-a-halfmarathon-in-2022).
- [@Cosmojg](https://twitter.com/cosmojg/status/1549927067055460352) for [this market](https://manifold.markets/cos/will-i-launch-my-digital-futarchy-b).
- Gavriel K, for [Will I start a blog this month?](https://manifold.markets/GavrielK/will-i-start-a-blog-this-month)

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blog/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge/.index.md.swp
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blog/2022/08/08/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022/index.md
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@ -1,8 +1,6 @@
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
==============
![](https://i.imgur.com/3tRzDMM.png)
## Highlights
* PredictIt has [lost CFTC approval](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22)

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blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.images/cutlery.png Normal file
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blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.R Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
## install.packages('ggplot2')
library(ggplot2)
library(ggthemes)
## import data
dir <- "~/Downloads/cutlery.csv"
data <- read.csv(paste(dir, "cutlery.csv", sep=""), header=TRUE)
# View(data)
answer_var = colnames(data)[16]
answer_var
freq_cut = sum(data[, answer_var] == "Knifes and cutting instruments") / dim(data)[1]
freq_eat = sum(data[, answer_var] == "Knifes, forks and spoons") / dim(data)[1]
d = list()
d$x = c("Knifes and cutting instruments", "Knifes, forks and spoons")
d$y = c(freq_cut, freq_eat)
d2 = as.data.frame(d)
title_text = "What do Americans think that 'cutlery' refers to?"
subtitle_text = "Utensils to eat, or things which cut? (n=21)"
label_x_axis = element_blank()
label_y_axis = element_blank()
ggplot(data=d2, aes(x=x, y=y))+
geom_col(fill="navyblue")+
labs(
title=title_text,
subtitle=subtitle_text,
x=label_x_axis,
y=label_y_axis
) +
scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent, breaks=seq(0,1,by=0.2), limits=c(0,0.6)) +
theme_tufte() +
theme(
axis.ticks.x = element_blank(),
legend.title = element_blank(),
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
legend.position="bottom",
legend.box="vertical",
axis.text.x=element_text(angle=0, hjust=0.5),
plot.background=element_rect(fill = "white",colour = NA)
)
getwd() ## Working directory on which the file will be saved. Can be changed with setwd("/your/directory")
height = 5
width = floor(height*(1+sqrt(5))/3)
ggsave("cutlery.png", width=width, height=height)

22
blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.csv Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
Run,Program Version,User,Time Started (UTC),Time Finished (UTC),Minutes Spent,Position,Points,participantID,assignmentID,projectID,startedAt,computerCountry,computerID,device,"In your experience, what does the word ""cutlery"" refer to? (q9p68xk)",curtleryAnswer,buttontext,finished,project_id,assignment_id,participant_id,url,age,gender,education,yearOfBirth,educationScore,householdIncome,femaleAs1MaleAs0,householdIncomeScore,householdIncomeEstimate
7106512,7,,2022-02-25 21:59:08,,0.2,rl4pf73,0,8c3b76f7,dc2d29bf,add5943b,2022/02/25 04:58 PM,United States,2c62bdae89e44f5fd76dbd6bd45092a0f7318b13,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,dc2d29bf,8c3b76f7,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,35,female,completedAssociateDegreeOnly,1987,4,"$25,000 to $39,999",1,2,32500
7106514,7,,2022-02-25 21:59:35,,0.07,rl4pf73,0,348d9309,b5068fbe,add5943b,2022/02/25 04:58 PM,United States,81c7dc558619364a12b2ecedd8fcb237b06bc12f,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,b5068fbe,348d9309,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,36,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1986,2,"Less than $9,999",0,0,4500
7106517,7,,2022-02-25 22:01:05,,1.27,rl4pf73,0,057ade9f,d1c1f9e5,add5943b,2022/02/25 04:58 PM,United States,f8e569475744500a905242dd04a63ee665f9b469,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,d1c1f9e5,057ade9f,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,29,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1993,5,"$60,000 to $84,999",0,4,72500
7106518,7,,2022-02-25 22:01:11,,0.4,rl4pf73,0,03dfd7b1,2467d9cc,add5943b,2022/02/25 04:58 PM,United States,5468db8a887c145dc4905385f8adab87fd2dd282,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,2467d9cc,03dfd7b1,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,38,female,completedMastersDegree,1983,6,"$40,000 to $59,999",1,3,50000
7106521,7,,2022-02-25 22:02:43,,0.1,rl4pf73,0,b5c1e000,cf95c668,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:02 PM,United States,fd5c19bfbd2a3ded36536255e9effc3d776151ef,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,cf95c668,b5c1e000,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,28,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1993,5,"$10,000 to $24,999",0,1,17500
7106523,7,,2022-02-25 22:05:37,,0.05,rl4pf73,0,b643e390,59483c2d,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,bb7e275f326f8aceb69f8886eed500d554e57c98,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,59483c2d,b643e390,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,36,female,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1986,2,"$85,000 to $114,999",1,5,100000
7106524,7,,2022-02-25 22:05:40,,0.13,rl4pf73,0,2a3223f3,3bcc91f2,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,c88e3ff23c5c110555699074bb29262d38dbdf93,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,3bcc91f2,2a3223f3,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,34,male,completedTradeTechicalVocationalTraing,1987,3,"$10,000 to $24,999",0,1,17500
7106525,7,,2022-02-25 22:05:58,,0.12,rl4pf73,0,379c2299,c4157993,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,abd83a0b499b5fbcfb45766d30f292feb8ae9c9f,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,c4157993,379c2299,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,33,female,completedMastersDegree,1989,6,"$85,000 to $114,999",1,5,100000
7106526,7,,2022-02-25 22:06:36,,0.12,rl4pf73,0,14322244,e041058a,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:06 PM,United States,17716193e617c73535c9c4f9404fa06190e3b5b0,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,e041058a,14322244,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,35,female,completedMastersDegree,1987,6,"$150,000 to $199,999",1,7,175000
7106527,7,,2022-02-25 22:06:40,,0.13,rl4pf73,0,d09735aa,1b8b6721,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,a5201582abfbe7ceec8deb67fe61685008e7008a,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,1b8b6721,d09735aa,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,47,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1974,2,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
7106530,7,,2022-02-25 22:07:39,,0.15,rl4pf73,0,b23dff26,93322c5e,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,b59e5ab5cfd04520ded57230ff696f777b216f15,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,93322c5e,b23dff26,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,70,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1952,2,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
7106539,7,,2022-02-25 22:11:44,,0.25,rl4pf73,0,096fe7ae,58aa8ffb,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:11 PM,United States,3ae49fdbafbc0a92bef574462be8b5af65d9b41b,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,58aa8ffb,096fe7ae,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,34,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1987,2,"$40,000 to $59,999",0,3,50000
7106552,7,,2022-02-25 22:19:17,,0.1,rl4pf73,0,7624802c,d4739f8e,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:18 PM,United States,d93f060b1885c81a1b4259f6a9b549d152573284,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,d4739f8e,7624802c,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,25,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1996,5,"$60,000 to $84,999",0,4,72500
7106553,7,,2022-02-25 22:20:57,,0.17,rl4pf73,0,7a939e71,275f0580,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:20 PM,United States,ecfd3b155d7e2e39bf79ae44691b6a1bd1b22e5e,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,275f0580,7a939e71,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,27,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1995,2,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
7106554,7,,2022-02-25 22:21:03,,0.12,rl4pf73,0,95c75ca0,88534cde,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:19 PM,United States,9e31b974bf9d3c90667c7edb9ad5ea68680078fc,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,88534cde,95c75ca0,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,68,male,completedMastersDegree,1953,6,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
7106568,7,,2022-02-25 22:34:36,,0.15,rl4pf73,0,1143572,7e08b08e,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:32 PM,United States,5cda043c89a8987def42dcc5492d6c315f3c4d90,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,7e08b08e,1143572,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,50,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1971,5,"$60,000 to $84,999",0,4,72500
7106569,7,,2022-02-25 22:35:56,,0.18,rl4pf73,0,c440a526,57fed0af,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:35 PM,United States,dd9694aa7ad70fb29c7efdf32558b38ab7cf14db,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,57fed0af,c440a526,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,47,female,completedBachelorsDegree,1974,5,"$150,000 to $199,999",1,7,175000
7106574,7,,2022-02-25 22:40:13,,0.17,rl4pf73,0,bb17ac4b,4e036c71,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:39 PM,United States,2a1840e15560f6695cda22282262292235d0e486,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,4e036c71,bb17ac4b,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,32,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1989,2,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
7106578,7,,2022-02-25 22:55:47,,0.1,rl4pf73,0,d69898c9,8a7cb24c,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:55 PM,United States,7fb2567ab60cd490e8893a9bb63d4cdf4be5538c,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,8a7cb24c,d69898c9,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,26,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1995,5,"$40,000 to $59,999",0,3,50000
7106589,7,,2022-02-25 23:08:26,,0.15,rl4pf73,0,317d31be,3c8664e2,add5943b,2022/02/25 06:07 PM,United States,10a2eb3344ace107c0c1b815963bdbdca5582d83,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,3c8664e2,317d31be,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,51,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1971,5,"$10,000 to $24,999",0,1,17500
7106638,7,,2022-02-26 00:18:45,,0.1,rl4pf73,0,44da3bad,3d105645,add5943b,2022/02/25 07:18 PM,United States,3e43a4da20f550bd4ed188ece3192c8cbb163998,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,3d105645,44da3bad,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,25,female,completedBachelorsDegree,1996,5,"$85,000 to $114,999",1,5,100000
1 Run Program Version User Time Started (UTC) Time Finished (UTC) Minutes Spent Position Points participantID assignmentID projectID startedAt computerCountry computerID device In your experience, what does the word "cutlery" refer to? (q9p68xk) curtleryAnswer buttontext finished project_id assignment_id participant_id url age gender education yearOfBirth educationScore householdIncome femaleAs1MaleAs0 householdIncomeScore householdIncomeEstimate
2 7106512 7 2022-02-25 21:59:08 0.2 rl4pf73 0 8c3b76f7 dc2d29bf add5943b 2022/02/25 04:58 PM United States 2c62bdae89e44f5fd76dbd6bd45092a0f7318b13 desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b dc2d29bf 8c3b76f7 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 35 female completedAssociateDegreeOnly 1987 4 $25,000 to $39,999 1 2 32500
3 7106514 7 2022-02-25 21:59:35 0.07 rl4pf73 0 348d9309 b5068fbe add5943b 2022/02/25 04:58 PM United States 81c7dc558619364a12b2ecedd8fcb237b06bc12f desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b b5068fbe 348d9309 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 36 male completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent 1986 2 Less than $9,999 0 0 4500
4 7106517 7 2022-02-25 22:01:05 1.27 rl4pf73 0 057ade9f d1c1f9e5 add5943b 2022/02/25 04:58 PM United States f8e569475744500a905242dd04a63ee665f9b469 desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b d1c1f9e5 057ade9f https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 29 male completedBachelorsDegree 1993 5 $60,000 to $84,999 0 4 72500
5 7106518 7 2022-02-25 22:01:11 0.4 rl4pf73 0 03dfd7b1 2467d9cc add5943b 2022/02/25 04:58 PM United States 5468db8a887c145dc4905385f8adab87fd2dd282 desktop Knifes and cutting instruments Knifes and cutting instruments Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 2467d9cc 03dfd7b1 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 38 female completedMastersDegree 1983 6 $40,000 to $59,999 1 3 50000
6 7106521 7 2022-02-25 22:02:43 0.1 rl4pf73 0 b5c1e000 cf95c668 add5943b 2022/02/25 05:02 PM United States fd5c19bfbd2a3ded36536255e9effc3d776151ef desktop Knifes and cutting instruments Knifes and cutting instruments Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b cf95c668 b5c1e000 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 28 male completedBachelorsDegree 1993 5 $10,000 to $24,999 0 1 17500
7 7106523 7 2022-02-25 22:05:37 0.05 rl4pf73 0 b643e390 59483c2d add5943b 2022/02/25 05:05 PM United States bb7e275f326f8aceb69f8886eed500d554e57c98 desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 59483c2d b643e390 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 36 female completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent 1986 2 $85,000 to $114,999 1 5 100000
8 7106524 7 2022-02-25 22:05:40 0.13 rl4pf73 0 2a3223f3 3bcc91f2 add5943b 2022/02/25 05:05 PM United States c88e3ff23c5c110555699074bb29262d38dbdf93 desktop Knifes and cutting instruments Knifes and cutting instruments Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 3bcc91f2 2a3223f3 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 34 male completedTradeTechicalVocationalTraing 1987 3 $10,000 to $24,999 0 1 17500
9 7106525 7 2022-02-25 22:05:58 0.12 rl4pf73 0 379c2299 c4157993 add5943b 2022/02/25 05:05 PM United States abd83a0b499b5fbcfb45766d30f292feb8ae9c9f desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b c4157993 379c2299 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 33 female completedMastersDegree 1989 6 $85,000 to $114,999 1 5 100000
10 7106526 7 2022-02-25 22:06:36 0.12 rl4pf73 0 14322244 e041058a add5943b 2022/02/25 05:06 PM United States 17716193e617c73535c9c4f9404fa06190e3b5b0 desktop Knifes and cutting instruments Knifes and cutting instruments Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b e041058a 14322244 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 35 female completedMastersDegree 1987 6 $150,000 to $199,999 1 7 175000
11 7106527 7 2022-02-25 22:06:40 0.13 rl4pf73 0 d09735aa 1b8b6721 add5943b 2022/02/25 05:05 PM United States a5201582abfbe7ceec8deb67fe61685008e7008a desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 1b8b6721 d09735aa https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 47 male completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent 1974 2 $25,000 to $39,999 0 2 32500
12 7106530 7 2022-02-25 22:07:39 0.15 rl4pf73 0 b23dff26 93322c5e add5943b 2022/02/25 05:05 PM United States b59e5ab5cfd04520ded57230ff696f777b216f15 desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 93322c5e b23dff26 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 70 male completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent 1952 2 $25,000 to $39,999 0 2 32500
13 7106539 7 2022-02-25 22:11:44 0.25 rl4pf73 0 096fe7ae 58aa8ffb add5943b 2022/02/25 05:11 PM United States 3ae49fdbafbc0a92bef574462be8b5af65d9b41b desktop Knifes and cutting instruments Knifes and cutting instruments Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 58aa8ffb 096fe7ae https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 34 male completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent 1987 2 $40,000 to $59,999 0 3 50000
14 7106552 7 2022-02-25 22:19:17 0.1 rl4pf73 0 7624802c d4739f8e add5943b 2022/02/25 05:18 PM United States d93f060b1885c81a1b4259f6a9b549d152573284 desktop Knifes and cutting instruments Knifes and cutting instruments Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b d4739f8e 7624802c https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 25 male completedBachelorsDegree 1996 5 $60,000 to $84,999 0 4 72500
15 7106553 7 2022-02-25 22:20:57 0.17 rl4pf73 0 7a939e71 275f0580 add5943b 2022/02/25 05:20 PM United States ecfd3b155d7e2e39bf79ae44691b6a1bd1b22e5e desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 275f0580 7a939e71 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 27 male completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent 1995 2 $25,000 to $39,999 0 2 32500
16 7106554 7 2022-02-25 22:21:03 0.12 rl4pf73 0 95c75ca0 88534cde add5943b 2022/02/25 05:19 PM United States 9e31b974bf9d3c90667c7edb9ad5ea68680078fc desktop Knifes and cutting instruments Knifes and cutting instruments Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 88534cde 95c75ca0 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 68 male completedMastersDegree 1953 6 $25,000 to $39,999 0 2 32500
17 7106568 7 2022-02-25 22:34:36 0.15 rl4pf73 0 1143572 7e08b08e add5943b 2022/02/25 05:32 PM United States 5cda043c89a8987def42dcc5492d6c315f3c4d90 desktop Knifes and cutting instruments Knifes and cutting instruments Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 7e08b08e 1143572 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 50 male completedBachelorsDegree 1971 5 $60,000 to $84,999 0 4 72500
18 7106569 7 2022-02-25 22:35:56 0.18 rl4pf73 0 c440a526 57fed0af add5943b 2022/02/25 05:35 PM United States dd9694aa7ad70fb29c7efdf32558b38ab7cf14db desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 57fed0af c440a526 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 47 female completedBachelorsDegree 1974 5 $150,000 to $199,999 1 7 175000
19 7106574 7 2022-02-25 22:40:13 0.17 rl4pf73 0 bb17ac4b 4e036c71 add5943b 2022/02/25 05:39 PM United States 2a1840e15560f6695cda22282262292235d0e486 desktop Knifes and cutting instruments Knifes and cutting instruments Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 4e036c71 bb17ac4b https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 32 male completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent 1989 2 $25,000 to $39,999 0 2 32500
20 7106578 7 2022-02-25 22:55:47 0.1 rl4pf73 0 d69898c9 8a7cb24c add5943b 2022/02/25 05:55 PM United States 7fb2567ab60cd490e8893a9bb63d4cdf4be5538c desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 8a7cb24c d69898c9 https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 26 male completedBachelorsDegree 1995 5 $40,000 to $59,999 0 3 50000
21 7106589 7 2022-02-25 23:08:26 0.15 rl4pf73 0 317d31be 3c8664e2 add5943b 2022/02/25 06:07 PM United States 10a2eb3344ace107c0c1b815963bdbdca5582d83 desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 3c8664e2 317d31be https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 51 male completedBachelorsDegree 1971 5 $10,000 to $24,999 0 1 17500
22 7106638 7 2022-02-26 00:18:45 0.1 rl4pf73 0 44da3bad 3d105645 add5943b 2022/02/25 07:18 PM United States 3e43a4da20f550bd4ed188ece3192c8cbb163998 desktop Knifes, forks and spoons Knifes, forks and spoons Click to finish and give feedback 1 add5943b 3d105645 44da3bad https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b 25 female completedBachelorsDegree 1996 5 $85,000 to $114,999 1 5 100000

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What do Americans think 'cutlery' means?
========================================
A while ago, I got into a discussion about what Americans think that the word "cutlery" means. The person I was discussing this with claimed that Americans thought that this referred to cutting instruments, and I claimed that this was preposterous, and that it clearly means all eating instruments.
<p><img src="https://i.imgur.com/seJwZuc.png" class="img-medium-center"></p>
At some point, I became curious enough that I asked a few American friends, and then spent $50 or so on [Positly](https://www.positly.com/) to survey 21 americans—I overpaid because at the time I wanted to get the data soon. The results are pictured above. The underlying data can be found in [here](./.src/cutlery.csv), and the code for replicating the chart is [here](./.src/cutlery.R). I'm not sure if 21 subjects is enough to come to a conclusion, but it was enough to satiate my own curiosity.

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blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md
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*The following are my notes from an intro to [Fermi estimates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem) class I gave at [ESPR](https://espr-camp.org/), in preparation for a Fermithon, i.e., a Fermi estimates tournament.*
Fermi estimation is a method for arriving an estimate of an uncertain variable of interest. Given a variable of interest, sometimes you can decompose it into steps, and multiplying those steps together gives you a more accurate estimate than estimating the thing you want to know directly. I'll go through a proof sketch for this in the appendix.
Fermi estimation is a method for arriving an estimate of an uncertain variable of interest. Given a variable of interest, sometimes you can decompose it into steps, and multiplying those steps together gives you a more accurate estimate than estimating the thing you want to know directly. I'll go through a proof sketch for this at the end of the post.
If you want to take over the world, why should you care about this? Well, you may care about this if you hope that having better models of the world would lead you to make better decisions, and to better achieve your goals. And Fermi estimates are one way of training or showing off the skill of building models of the world. They have fast feedback loops, because you can in many cases then check the answer on the internet afterwards. But they are probably most useful in cases where you can't.