diff --git a/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/index.md b/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/index.md
index fb8511d..5608081 100644
--- a/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/index.md
+++ b/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/index.md
@@ -22,3 +22,4 @@ Brave people who have taken me up on this offer:
 
 - [@BenRCongdon](https://twitter.com/BenRCongdon) for [this market](https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-i-run-a-halfmarathon-in-2022).
 - [@Cosmojg](https://twitter.com/cosmojg/status/1549927067055460352) for [this market](https://manifold.markets/cos/will-i-launch-my-digital-futarchy-b).
+- Gavriel K, for [Will I start a blog this month?](https://manifold.markets/GavrielK/will-i-start-a-blog-this-month)
diff --git a/blog/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge/.index.md.swp b/blog/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge/.index.md.swp
deleted file mode 100644
index e2ccc3f..0000000
Binary files a/blog/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge/.index.md.swp and /dev/null differ
diff --git a/blog/2022/08/08/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022/index.md b/blog/2022/08/08/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022/index.md
index b4cbeff..31041fc 100644
--- a/blog/2022/08/08/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022/index.md
+++ b/blog/2022/08/08/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022/index.md
@@ -1,8 +1,6 @@
 Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
 ==============
 
-![](https://i.imgur.com/3tRzDMM.png)
-
 ## Highlights
 
 *   PredictIt has [lost CFTC approval](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22)
diff --git a/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.images/cutlery.png b/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.images/cutlery.png
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..26be79b
Binary files /dev/null and b/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.images/cutlery.png differ
diff --git a/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.R b/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.R
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d92f87b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.R
@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+## install.packages('ggplot2')
+library(ggplot2)
+library(ggthemes)
+
+## import data
+dir <- "~/Downloads/cutlery.csv"
+data <- read.csv(paste(dir, "cutlery.csv", sep=""), header=TRUE)
+# View(data)
+answer_var = colnames(data)[16]
+answer_var
+
+freq_cut = sum(data[, answer_var] == "Knifes and cutting instruments") / dim(data)[1]
+freq_eat = sum(data[, answer_var] == "Knifes, forks and spoons") / dim(data)[1]
+
+d = list()
+d$x =  c("Knifes and cutting instruments", "Knifes, forks and spoons")
+d$y = c(freq_cut, freq_eat)
+d2 = as.data.frame(d)
+
+title_text = "What do Americans think that 'cutlery' refers to?"
+subtitle_text = "Utensils to eat, or things which cut? (n=21)"
+label_x_axis = element_blank()
+label_y_axis = element_blank()
+ggplot(data=d2, aes(x=x, y=y))+
+  geom_col(fill="navyblue")+
+  labs(
+    title=title_text,
+    subtitle=subtitle_text,
+    x=label_x_axis, 
+    y=label_y_axis 
+  ) +
+   scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent, breaks=seq(0,1,by=0.2), limits=c(0,0.6)) +
+  theme_tufte() + 
+  theme(
+    axis.ticks.x = element_blank(),
+    legend.title = element_blank(),
+    plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
+    plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0.5), 
+    legend.position="bottom",
+    legend.box="vertical",
+    axis.text.x=element_text(angle=0, hjust=0.5),
+    plot.background=element_rect(fill = "white",colour = NA)
+  )
+
+getwd() ## Working directory on which the file will be saved. Can be changed with setwd("/your/directory")
+height = 5
+width = floor(height*(1+sqrt(5))/3)
+ggsave("cutlery.png", width=width, height=height)
diff --git a/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.csv b/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b27c7d3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+Run,Program Version,User,Time Started (UTC),Time Finished (UTC),Minutes Spent,Position,Points,participantID,assignmentID,projectID,startedAt,computerCountry,computerID,device,"In your experience, what does the word ""cutlery"" refer to? (q9p68xk)",curtleryAnswer,buttontext,finished,project_id,assignment_id,participant_id,url,age,gender,education,yearOfBirth,educationScore,householdIncome,femaleAs1MaleAs0,householdIncomeScore,householdIncomeEstimate
+7106512,7,,2022-02-25 21:59:08,,0.2,rl4pf73,0,8c3b76f7,dc2d29bf,add5943b,2022/02/25 04:58 PM,United States,2c62bdae89e44f5fd76dbd6bd45092a0f7318b13,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,dc2d29bf,8c3b76f7,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,35,female,completedAssociateDegreeOnly,1987,4,"$25,000 to $39,999",1,2,32500
+7106514,7,,2022-02-25 21:59:35,,0.07,rl4pf73,0,348d9309,b5068fbe,add5943b,2022/02/25 04:58 PM,United States,81c7dc558619364a12b2ecedd8fcb237b06bc12f,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,b5068fbe,348d9309,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,36,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1986,2,"Less than $9,999",0,0,4500
+7106517,7,,2022-02-25 22:01:05,,1.27,rl4pf73,0,057ade9f,d1c1f9e5,add5943b,2022/02/25 04:58 PM,United States,f8e569475744500a905242dd04a63ee665f9b469,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,d1c1f9e5,057ade9f,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,29,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1993,5,"$60,000 to $84,999",0,4,72500
+7106518,7,,2022-02-25 22:01:11,,0.4,rl4pf73,0,03dfd7b1,2467d9cc,add5943b,2022/02/25 04:58 PM,United States,5468db8a887c145dc4905385f8adab87fd2dd282,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,2467d9cc,03dfd7b1,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,38,female,completedMastersDegree,1983,6,"$40,000 to $59,999",1,3,50000
+7106521,7,,2022-02-25 22:02:43,,0.1,rl4pf73,0,b5c1e000,cf95c668,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:02 PM,United States,fd5c19bfbd2a3ded36536255e9effc3d776151ef,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,cf95c668,b5c1e000,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,28,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1993,5,"$10,000 to $24,999",0,1,17500
+7106523,7,,2022-02-25 22:05:37,,0.05,rl4pf73,0,b643e390,59483c2d,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,bb7e275f326f8aceb69f8886eed500d554e57c98,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,59483c2d,b643e390,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,36,female,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1986,2,"$85,000 to $114,999",1,5,100000
+7106524,7,,2022-02-25 22:05:40,,0.13,rl4pf73,0,2a3223f3,3bcc91f2,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,c88e3ff23c5c110555699074bb29262d38dbdf93,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,3bcc91f2,2a3223f3,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,34,male,completedTradeTechicalVocationalTraing,1987,3,"$10,000 to $24,999",0,1,17500
+7106525,7,,2022-02-25 22:05:58,,0.12,rl4pf73,0,379c2299,c4157993,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,abd83a0b499b5fbcfb45766d30f292feb8ae9c9f,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,c4157993,379c2299,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,33,female,completedMastersDegree,1989,6,"$85,000 to $114,999",1,5,100000
+7106526,7,,2022-02-25 22:06:36,,0.12,rl4pf73,0,14322244,e041058a,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:06 PM,United States,17716193e617c73535c9c4f9404fa06190e3b5b0,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,e041058a,14322244,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,35,female,completedMastersDegree,1987,6,"$150,000 to $199,999",1,7,175000
+7106527,7,,2022-02-25 22:06:40,,0.13,rl4pf73,0,d09735aa,1b8b6721,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,a5201582abfbe7ceec8deb67fe61685008e7008a,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,1b8b6721,d09735aa,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,47,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1974,2,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
+7106530,7,,2022-02-25 22:07:39,,0.15,rl4pf73,0,b23dff26,93322c5e,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:05 PM,United States,b59e5ab5cfd04520ded57230ff696f777b216f15,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,93322c5e,b23dff26,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,70,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1952,2,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
+7106539,7,,2022-02-25 22:11:44,,0.25,rl4pf73,0,096fe7ae,58aa8ffb,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:11 PM,United States,3ae49fdbafbc0a92bef574462be8b5af65d9b41b,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,58aa8ffb,096fe7ae,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,34,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1987,2,"$40,000 to $59,999",0,3,50000
+7106552,7,,2022-02-25 22:19:17,,0.1,rl4pf73,0,7624802c,d4739f8e,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:18 PM,United States,d93f060b1885c81a1b4259f6a9b549d152573284,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,d4739f8e,7624802c,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,25,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1996,5,"$60,000 to $84,999",0,4,72500
+7106553,7,,2022-02-25 22:20:57,,0.17,rl4pf73,0,7a939e71,275f0580,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:20 PM,United States,ecfd3b155d7e2e39bf79ae44691b6a1bd1b22e5e,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,275f0580,7a939e71,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,27,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1995,2,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
+7106554,7,,2022-02-25 22:21:03,,0.12,rl4pf73,0,95c75ca0,88534cde,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:19 PM,United States,9e31b974bf9d3c90667c7edb9ad5ea68680078fc,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,88534cde,95c75ca0,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,68,male,completedMastersDegree,1953,6,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
+7106568,7,,2022-02-25 22:34:36,,0.15,rl4pf73,0,1143572,7e08b08e,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:32 PM,United States,5cda043c89a8987def42dcc5492d6c315f3c4d90,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,7e08b08e,1143572,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,50,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1971,5,"$60,000 to $84,999",0,4,72500
+7106569,7,,2022-02-25 22:35:56,,0.18,rl4pf73,0,c440a526,57fed0af,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:35 PM,United States,dd9694aa7ad70fb29c7efdf32558b38ab7cf14db,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,57fed0af,c440a526,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,47,female,completedBachelorsDegree,1974,5,"$150,000 to $199,999",1,7,175000
+7106574,7,,2022-02-25 22:40:13,,0.17,rl4pf73,0,bb17ac4b,4e036c71,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:39 PM,United States,2a1840e15560f6695cda22282262292235d0e486,desktop,Knifes and cutting instruments,Knifes and cutting instruments,Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,4e036c71,bb17ac4b,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,32,male,completedOnlyHighSchoolOrTheEquivalent,1989,2,"$25,000 to $39,999",0,2,32500
+7106578,7,,2022-02-25 22:55:47,,0.1,rl4pf73,0,d69898c9,8a7cb24c,add5943b,2022/02/25 05:55 PM,United States,7fb2567ab60cd490e8893a9bb63d4cdf4be5538c,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,8a7cb24c,d69898c9,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,26,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1995,5,"$40,000 to $59,999",0,3,50000
+7106589,7,,2022-02-25 23:08:26,,0.15,rl4pf73,0,317d31be,3c8664e2,add5943b,2022/02/25 06:07 PM,United States,10a2eb3344ace107c0c1b815963bdbdca5582d83,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,3c8664e2,317d31be,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,51,male,completedBachelorsDegree,1971,5,"$10,000 to $24,999",0,1,17500
+7106638,7,,2022-02-26 00:18:45,,0.1,rl4pf73,0,44da3bad,3d105645,add5943b,2022/02/25 07:18 PM,United States,3e43a4da20f550bd4ed188ece3192c8cbb163998,desktop,"Knifes, forks and spoons","Knifes, forks and spoons",Click to finish and give feedback,1,add5943b,3d105645,44da3bad,https://app.positly.com/#/f?task_id=add5943b,25,female,completedBachelorsDegree,1996,5,"$85,000 to $114,999",1,5,100000
diff --git a/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/index.md b/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/index.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d331816
--- /dev/null
+++ b/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/index.md
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+What do Americans think 'cutlery' means?
+========================================
+
+A while ago, I got into a discussion about what Americans think that the word "cutlery" means. The person I was discussing this with claimed that Americans thought that this referred to cutting instruments, and I claimed that this was preposterous, and that it clearly means all eating instruments.
+
+<p><img src="https://i.imgur.com/seJwZuc.png"  class="img-medium-center"></p>
+
+At some point, I became curious enough that I asked a few American friends, and then spent $50 or so on [Positly](https://www.positly.com/) to survey 21 americans—I overpaid because at the time I wanted to get the data soon. The results are pictured above. The underlying data can be found in [here](./.src/cutlery.csv), and the code for replicating the chart is [here](./.src/cutlery.R). I'm not sure if 21 subjects is enough to come to a conclusion, but it was enough to satiate my own curiosity.
diff --git a/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md b/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md
index 9b16d54..9a4af17 100644
--- a/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md
+++ b/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ Introduction to Fermi estimates
 
 *The following are my notes from an intro to [Fermi estimates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem) class I gave at [ESPR](https://espr-camp.org/), in preparation for a Fermithon, i.e., a Fermi estimates tournament.*
 
-Fermi estimation is a method for arriving an estimate of an uncertain variable of interest. Given a variable of interest, sometimes you can decompose it into steps, and multiplying those steps together gives you a more accurate estimate than estimating the thing you want to know directly. I'll go through a proof sketch for this in the appendix.
+Fermi estimation is a method for arriving an estimate of an uncertain variable of interest. Given a variable of interest, sometimes you can decompose it into steps, and multiplying those steps together gives you a more accurate estimate than estimating the thing you want to know directly. I'll go through a proof sketch for this at the end of the post.
 
 If you want to take over the world, why should you care about this? Well, you may care about this if you hope that having better models of the world would lead you to make better decisions, and to better achieve your goals. And Fermi estimates are one way of training or showing off the skill of building models of the world. They have fast feedback loops, because you can in many cases then check the answer on the internet afterwards. But they are probably most useful in cases where you can't.