From de54a2462f7646137f897ad247f0a6a4dd5b4f72 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nuno Sempere Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2022 19:10:15 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] feat: update blogposts --- .../index.md | 1 + .../.index.md.swp | Bin 16384 -> 0 bytes .../forecasting-newsletter-july-2022/index.md | 2 - .../.images/cutlery.png | Bin 0 -> 52872 bytes .../.src/cutlery.R | 48 ++++++++++++++++++ .../.src/cutlery.csv | 22 ++++++++ .../index.md | 8 +++ blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md | 2 +- 8 files changed, 80 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 blog/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge/.index.md.swp create mode 100644 blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.images/cutlery.png create mode 100644 blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.R create mode 100644 blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.src/cutlery.csv create mode 100644 blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/index.md diff --git a/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/index.md b/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/index.md index fb8511d..5608081 100644 --- a/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/index.md +++ b/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/index.md @@ -22,3 +22,4 @@ Brave people who have taken me up on this offer: - [@BenRCongdon](https://twitter.com/BenRCongdon) for [this market](https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-i-run-a-halfmarathon-in-2022). - [@Cosmojg](https://twitter.com/cosmojg/status/1549927067055460352) for [this market](https://manifold.markets/cos/will-i-launch-my-digital-futarchy-b). +- Gavriel K, for [Will I start a blog this month?](https://manifold.markets/GavrielK/will-i-start-a-blog-this-month) diff --git a/blog/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge/.index.md.swp b/blog/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge/.index.md.swp deleted file mode 100644 index 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Newsletter: July 2022 ============== -![](https://i.imgur.com/3tRzDMM.png) - ## Highlights * PredictIt has [lost CFTC approval](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22) diff --git a/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.images/cutlery.png b/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery/.images/cutlery.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..26be79b96941372f38fad4a74e20f358266ea68a GIT binary patch literal 52872 zcmdpecQ}^)|F@(I>{YTyvPU9>LMVF`Ql#v?lATdDDV4-!mRUwpC`2Mc z#`C)F`}h4m&++{A{QWrY`?!zp>blPJbACSW_iMe+yE_$Su&qn-rn`e%kI|&I3iRu{zJQY#|;j)S)NwnJ-FjwPW~Mh z7Qc@hn=OAjrJUVQSzjTQZD=Ta7DKQuv)ASnCVgsj4`2R2KY_OPF6RIF1qn$Y^L{d$ z|NTpG5(T>d{j0t5Iy?XStHABlvD^OptIs6=AN;jIW+i)jdlM7-ft=3;MMXu{ zDM{N(lT@47PN+;mCAK3C{I z=U`|5@!@IEj4sKcnt-j%dvwB**S}xH1=-ozUA{b!r=5|RnfY_H!OdKR1$=ch{NQQ1?c4zrGb`{psx8h7Ejw~IN~{8q2WwXY7(4E6M+{nu9p zE3X)qn0c+QJXK*=B%d9wJ-bijSVv_S8e(vLO`SQ2u=xFT>+2?+LmuH8nPdN>* 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+ +At some point, I became curious enough that I asked a few American friends, and then spent $50 or so on [Positly](https://www.positly.com/) to survey 21 americans—I overpaid because at the time I wanted to get the data soon. The results are pictured above. The underlying data can be found in [here](./.src/cutlery.csv), and the code for replicating the chart is [here](./.src/cutlery.R). I'm not sure if 21 subjects is enough to come to a conclusion, but it was enough to satiate my own curiosity. diff --git a/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md b/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md index 9b16d54..9a4af17 100644 --- a/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md +++ b/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/index.md @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ Introduction to Fermi estimates *The following are my notes from an intro to [Fermi estimates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem) class I gave at [ESPR](https://espr-camp.org/), in preparation for a Fermithon, i.e., a Fermi estimates tournament.* -Fermi estimation is a method for arriving an estimate of an uncertain variable of interest. Given a variable of interest, sometimes you can decompose it into steps, and multiplying those steps together gives you a more accurate estimate than estimating the thing you want to know directly. I'll go through a proof sketch for this in the appendix. +Fermi estimation is a method for arriving an estimate of an uncertain variable of interest. Given a variable of interest, sometimes you can decompose it into steps, and multiplying those steps together gives you a more accurate estimate than estimating the thing you want to know directly. I'll go through a proof sketch for this at the end of the post. If you want to take over the world, why should you care about this? Well, you may care about this if you hope that having better models of the world would lead you to make better decisions, and to better achieve your goals. And Fermi estimates are one way of training or showing off the skill of building models of the world. They have fast feedback loops, because you can in many cases then check the answer on the internet afterwards. But they are probably most useful in cases where you can't.