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Nuno Sempere 2023-05-15 03:53:51 +00:00
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blog/2020/11/01/forecasting-newsletter-october-2020/index.md
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@ -70,7 +70,7 @@ Boeing [releases](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/10/15/boeings-commercial-m
The [World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde) is a monthly report by the US Department of Agriculture. It provides monthly estimates and past figures for crops worldwide, and for livestock production in the US specifically (meat, poultry, dairy), which might be of interest to the animal suffering movement. It also provides estimates of the past reliability of those forecasts. The October report can be found [here](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1020.pdf), along with a summary [here](https://www.feedstuffs.com/markets/usda-raises-meat-poultry-production-forecast). The image below presents the 2020 and 2021 predictions, as well as the 2019 numbers:
![](.images/c1fa5c2d58e4b0b76d0c7afab896ee89a7289559.png)
![](https://images.nunosempere.com/blog/2020/11/01/forecasting-newsletter-october-2020/c1fa5c2d58e4b0b76d0c7afab896ee89a7289559.png)
The Atlantic considers scenarios under which [Trump refuses to concede](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/). Warning: very long, very chilling.

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blog/2020/11/10/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions/index.md
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@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ For example if only the top forecaster wins a prize, you might want to predict a
Consider for example [this prediction contest](https://predictingpolitics.com/2020/08/02/the-predictions-are-in/), which only had a prize for #1. The following question asks about the margin Biden would win or lose Georgia by:
![](.images/f736a63590b98d329a456b5ff1cc055da86d416c.png)
![](https://images.nunosempere.com/blog/2020/11/10/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions/f736a63590b98d329a456b5ff1cc055da86d416c.png)
Then the most likely scenario might be a close race, but the prediction which would have maximized your odds of coming in #1st might be much more extremized, because other predictors are more tightly packed in the middle.

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blog/2020/12/01/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work/index.md
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@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ As my primary conclusion, I found that assessing the relative value of projects
The reader can see my results [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BGmkDrQzDCYdMXEvIv7DhMusG-7EwBTkz8MiaEBq9VE/edit#gid=0), though I’d like to note that they’re preliminary and experimental, as is the rest of this post. Towards the end of this post, there is a section which mentions more caveats.
![](.images/16bb08699adfac73a6545a3e056f19480a486da7.png)
![](https://images.nunosempere.com/blog/2020/12/01/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work/16bb08699adfac73a6545a3e056f19480a486da7.png)
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