compute-constrained-bayes/index.md
2023-05-24 00:59:16 -04:00

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## Dependencies
nimble install https://github.com/nim-lang/bigints
https://nimdocs.com/nim-lang/bigints/bigints.html
nimble install print
https://github.com/treeform/print
## Dependencies
The data folder is not included, but its contents are:
.
├── data
│   ├── stripped
│   └── stripped.gz
Where stripped.gz can be found at <https://oeis.org/wiki/JSON_Format,_Compressed_Files>
## To do
- [ ] Exploration of OEIS data
- [ ] Subdivide subsequent tasks into steps
- [x] Simple prediction of the next integer
- [x] Simple predictions v1
- [x] Wrangle the return types to something semi-elegant
- [-] Maybe add some caching, e.g., write continuations to file, and read them next time.
- [ ] JIT Bayesianism:
- [x] Function to predict with a variable number of hypotheses
- [ ] Function to start predicting with a small number of hypotheses, and get more if the initial ones aren't enough.
- [ ] Add the loop of: start with some small number of sequences, and if these aren't enough, read more.
- [ ] ...
- [ ] Infrabayesianism x1: Predicting interleaved sequences
- [ ] Infrabayesianism x2: Deterministic game of producing a fixed deterministic prediction, and then the adversary picking whatever minimizes your loss
- [ ] Write the actor
---
An implementation of Infrabayesianism over OEIS sequences.
<https://oeis.org/wiki/JSON_Format,_Compressed_Files>
Or "Just-in-Time bayesianism", where getting a new hypothesis = getting a new sequence from OEIS which has the numbers you've seen so far.
Implementing Infrabayesianism as a game over OEIS sequences. Two parts:
1. Prediction over interleaved sequences. I choose two OEIS sequences, and interleave them: a1, b1, a2, b2.
- Now, you don't have hypothesis over the whole set, but two hypothesis over the
- I could also have a chemistry like iteration:
a1
a2 b1
a3 b2 c1
a4 b3 c2 d1
a5 b4 c3 d2 e1
.................
- And then it would just be computationally absurd to have hypotheses over the whole
2. Game where: You provide a deterministic procedure for estimating the probability of each OEIS sequence giving a list of trailing examples.