Answers graph (#65)

* In progress

* Calculate correct graph probabilites
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James Grugett 2022-03-15 14:42:04 -05:00 committed by GitHub
parent f17c4ac40f
commit 1bb5d3b8cd
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3 changed files with 184 additions and 2 deletions

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@ -0,0 +1,177 @@
import { DatumValue } from '@nivo/core'
import { ResponsiveLine } from '@nivo/line'
import dayjs from 'dayjs'
import _ from 'lodash'
import { Bet } from '../../../common/bet'
import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
import { getOutcomeProbability } from '../../../common/calculate'
import { useBets } from '../../hooks/use-bets'
import { useWindowSize } from '../../hooks/use-window-size'
export function AnswersGraph(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
const { contract } = props
const { resolutionTime, closeTime, answers, totalShares } = contract
const bets = (useBets(contract.id) ?? props.bets).filter((bet) => !bet.sale)
const { probsByOutcome, sortedOutcomes } = computeProbsByOutcome(
bets,
totalShares
)
const isClosed = !!closeTime && Date.now() > closeTime
const latestTime = dayjs(
resolutionTime && isClosed
? Math.min(resolutionTime, closeTime)
: isClosed
? closeTime
: resolutionTime ?? Date.now()
)
const { width } = useWindowSize()
const labelLength = !width || width > 800 ? 75 : 20
const colors = ['#2a81e3', '#c72ae3', '#b91111', '#f3ad28', '#11b981']
const maxProb = _.max(
Object.values(probsByOutcome).map((probs) => Math.max(...probs))
)
const yMax = Math.min(100, Math.max(50, (maxProb ?? 0) * 100 * 1.2))
const times = _.sortBy([
contract.createdTime,
...bets.map((bet) => bet.createdTime),
])
const dateTimes = times.map((time) => new Date(time))
const data = sortedOutcomes.map((outcome, i) => {
const probs = probsByOutcome[outcome]
if (resolutionTime || isClosed) {
dateTimes.push(latestTime.toDate())
probs.push(probs[probs.length - 1])
} else {
// Add a fake datapoint in future so the line continues horizontally
// to the right.
dateTimes.push(latestTime.add(1, 'month').toDate())
probs.push(probs[probs.length - 1])
}
const points = probs.map((prob, i) => ({
x: dateTimes[i],
y: Math.round(prob * 100),
}))
const answer =
answers?.find((answer) => answer.id === outcome)?.text ?? 'None'
const answerText =
answer.slice(0, labelLength) + (answer.length > labelLength ? '...' : '')
const id = `#${outcome}: ${answerText}`
return { id, data: points, color: colors[i] }
})
data.reverse()
const yTickValues = [0, 25, 50, 75, 100]
const numXTickValues = !width || width < 800 ? 2 : 5
const hoursAgo = latestTime.subtract(5, 'hours')
const startDate = dayjs(contract.createdTime).isBefore(hoursAgo)
? new Date(contract.createdTime)
: hoursAgo.toDate()
const lessThanAWeek = dayjs(startDate).add(1, 'week').isAfter(latestTime)
return (
<div
className="w-full overflow-hidden"
style={{ height: !width || width >= 800 ? 350 : 225 }}
>
<ResponsiveLine
data={data}
yScale={{ min: 0, max: yMax, type: 'linear' }}
yFormat={formatPercent}
gridYValues={yTickValues}
axisLeft={{
tickValues: yTickValues,
format: formatPercent,
}}
xScale={{
type: 'time',
min: startDate,
max: latestTime.toDate(),
}}
xFormat={(d) => formatTime(+d.valueOf(), lessThanAWeek)}
axisBottom={{
tickValues: numXTickValues,
format: (time) => formatTime(+time, lessThanAWeek),
}}
colors={{ datum: 'color' }}
pointSize={0}
enableSlices="x"
enableGridX={!!width && width >= 800}
enableArea
margin={{ top: 20, right: 28, bottom: 22, left: 40 }}
/>
</div>
)
}
function formatPercent(y: DatumValue) {
return `${Math.round(+y.toString())}%`
}
function formatTime(time: number, includeTime: boolean) {
const d = dayjs(time)
if (d.isSame(Date.now(), 'day')) return d.format('ha')
if (includeTime) return dayjs(time).format('MMM D, ha')
return dayjs(time).format('MMM D')
}
const computeProbsByOutcome = (
bets: Bet[],
totalShares: { [outcome: string]: number }
) => {
const betsByOutcome = _.groupBy(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome)
const outcomes = Object.keys(betsByOutcome).filter((outcome) => {
const maxProb = Math.max(
...betsByOutcome[outcome].map((bet) => bet.probAfter)
)
return outcome !== '0' && maxProb > 0.05
})
const trackedOutcomes = _.sortBy(
outcomes,
(outcome) => -1 * getOutcomeProbability(totalShares, outcome)
).slice(0, 5)
const probsByOutcome = _.fromPairs(
trackedOutcomes.map((outcome) => [outcome, [0]])
)
const sharesByOutcome = _.fromPairs(
Object.keys(betsByOutcome).map((outcome) => [outcome, 0])
)
for (const bet of bets) {
const { outcome, shares } = bet
sharesByOutcome[outcome] += shares
const sharesSquared = _.sumBy(
Object.values(sharesByOutcome).map((shares) => shares ** 2)
)
for (const outcome of trackedOutcomes) {
probsByOutcome[outcome].push(
sharesByOutcome[outcome] ** 2 / sharesSquared
)
}
}
return { probsByOutcome, sortedOutcomes: trackedOutcomes }
}

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@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ import BetRow from './bet-row'
import { Fold } from '../../common/fold'
import { FoldTagList } from './tags-list'
import { ContractActivity } from './feed/contract-activity'
import { AnswersGraph } from './answers/answers-graph'
export const ContractOverview = (props: {
contract: Contract
@ -77,7 +78,11 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
<Spacer h={4} />
{isBinary && <ContractProbGraph contract={contract} bets={bets} />}
{isBinary ? (
<ContractProbGraph contract={contract} bets={bets} />
) : (
<AnswersGraph contract={contract} bets={bets} />
)}
{children}

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@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ export function ContractProbGraph(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
return (
<div
className="w-full"
className="w-full overflow-hidden"
style={{ height: !width || width >= 800 ? 400 : 250 }}
>
<ResponsiveLine