diff --git a/web/components/answers/answers-graph.tsx b/web/components/answers/answers-graph.tsx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6082227d --- /dev/null +++ b/web/components/answers/answers-graph.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,177 @@ +import { DatumValue } from '@nivo/core' +import { ResponsiveLine } from '@nivo/line' +import dayjs from 'dayjs' +import _ from 'lodash' + +import { Bet } from '../../../common/bet' +import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract' +import { getOutcomeProbability } from '../../../common/calculate' +import { useBets } from '../../hooks/use-bets' +import { useWindowSize } from '../../hooks/use-window-size' + +export function AnswersGraph(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) { + const { contract } = props + const { resolutionTime, closeTime, answers, totalShares } = contract + + const bets = (useBets(contract.id) ?? props.bets).filter((bet) => !bet.sale) + + const { probsByOutcome, sortedOutcomes } = computeProbsByOutcome( + bets, + totalShares + ) + + const isClosed = !!closeTime && Date.now() > closeTime + const latestTime = dayjs( + resolutionTime && isClosed + ? Math.min(resolutionTime, closeTime) + : isClosed + ? closeTime + : resolutionTime ?? Date.now() + ) + + const { width } = useWindowSize() + + const labelLength = !width || width > 800 ? 75 : 20 + + const colors = ['#2a81e3', '#c72ae3', '#b91111', '#f3ad28', '#11b981'] + + const maxProb = _.max( + Object.values(probsByOutcome).map((probs) => Math.max(...probs)) + ) + const yMax = Math.min(100, Math.max(50, (maxProb ?? 0) * 100 * 1.2)) + + const times = _.sortBy([ + contract.createdTime, + ...bets.map((bet) => bet.createdTime), + ]) + const dateTimes = times.map((time) => new Date(time)) + + const data = sortedOutcomes.map((outcome, i) => { + const probs = probsByOutcome[outcome] + + if (resolutionTime || isClosed) { + dateTimes.push(latestTime.toDate()) + probs.push(probs[probs.length - 1]) + } else { + // Add a fake datapoint in future so the line continues horizontally + // to the right. + dateTimes.push(latestTime.add(1, 'month').toDate()) + probs.push(probs[probs.length - 1]) + } + + const points = probs.map((prob, i) => ({ + x: dateTimes[i], + y: Math.round(prob * 100), + })) + + const answer = + answers?.find((answer) => answer.id === outcome)?.text ?? 'None' + const answerText = + answer.slice(0, labelLength) + (answer.length > labelLength ? '...' : '') + const id = `#${outcome}: ${answerText}` + + return { id, data: points, color: colors[i] } + }) + + data.reverse() + + const yTickValues = [0, 25, 50, 75, 100] + + const numXTickValues = !width || width < 800 ? 2 : 5 + const hoursAgo = latestTime.subtract(5, 'hours') + const startDate = dayjs(contract.createdTime).isBefore(hoursAgo) + ? new Date(contract.createdTime) + : hoursAgo.toDate() + + const lessThanAWeek = dayjs(startDate).add(1, 'week').isAfter(latestTime) + + return ( +
= 800 ? 350 : 225 }} + > + formatTime(+d.valueOf(), lessThanAWeek)} + axisBottom={{ + tickValues: numXTickValues, + format: (time) => formatTime(+time, lessThanAWeek), + }} + colors={{ datum: 'color' }} + pointSize={0} + enableSlices="x" + enableGridX={!!width && width >= 800} + enableArea + margin={{ top: 20, right: 28, bottom: 22, left: 40 }} + /> +
+ ) +} + +function formatPercent(y: DatumValue) { + return `${Math.round(+y.toString())}%` +} + +function formatTime(time: number, includeTime: boolean) { + const d = dayjs(time) + + if (d.isSame(Date.now(), 'day')) return d.format('ha') + + if (includeTime) return dayjs(time).format('MMM D, ha') + + return dayjs(time).format('MMM D') +} + +const computeProbsByOutcome = ( + bets: Bet[], + totalShares: { [outcome: string]: number } +) => { + const betsByOutcome = _.groupBy(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome) + const outcomes = Object.keys(betsByOutcome).filter((outcome) => { + const maxProb = Math.max( + ...betsByOutcome[outcome].map((bet) => bet.probAfter) + ) + return outcome !== '0' && maxProb > 0.05 + }) + + const trackedOutcomes = _.sortBy( + outcomes, + (outcome) => -1 * getOutcomeProbability(totalShares, outcome) + ).slice(0, 5) + + const probsByOutcome = _.fromPairs( + trackedOutcomes.map((outcome) => [outcome, [0]]) + ) + const sharesByOutcome = _.fromPairs( + Object.keys(betsByOutcome).map((outcome) => [outcome, 0]) + ) + + for (const bet of bets) { + const { outcome, shares } = bet + sharesByOutcome[outcome] += shares + + const sharesSquared = _.sumBy( + Object.values(sharesByOutcome).map((shares) => shares ** 2) + ) + + for (const outcome of trackedOutcomes) { + probsByOutcome[outcome].push( + sharesByOutcome[outcome] ** 2 / sharesSquared + ) + } + } + + return { probsByOutcome, sortedOutcomes: trackedOutcomes } +} diff --git a/web/components/contract-overview.tsx b/web/components/contract-overview.tsx index d5a14573..f92f2ade 100644 --- a/web/components/contract-overview.tsx +++ b/web/components/contract-overview.tsx @@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ import BetRow from './bet-row' import { Fold } from '../../common/fold' import { FoldTagList } from './tags-list' import { ContractActivity } from './feed/contract-activity' +import { AnswersGraph } from './answers/answers-graph' export const ContractOverview = (props: { contract: Contract @@ -77,7 +78,11 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: { - {isBinary && } + {isBinary ? ( + + ) : ( + + )} {children} diff --git a/web/components/contract-prob-graph.tsx b/web/components/contract-prob-graph.tsx index d764179c..8ece4335 100644 --- a/web/components/contract-prob-graph.tsx +++ b/web/components/contract-prob-graph.tsx @@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ export function ContractProbGraph(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) { return (
= 800 ? 400 : 250 }} >