https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20241010/fema-responds-hurricane-milton-florida-it-continues-coordinated-recovery&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGmRmNmMwNjc2YmM0NzgxYTg6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw0D3F1Eq05brlgUtbYGPCcl

into

https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20241010/fema-responds-hurricane-milton-florida-it-continues-coordinated-recovery
add run

core/core.go

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 package core
 
-const Include_polls_within_n_days = 15 //
-const Std_additional_uncertainty = 0.0 // 4.0 / 100.0
-const Weight_polls_vs_baserate = 0.8   // 0.75
+const Include_polls_within_n_days = 15         // 30
+const Std_additional_uncertainty = 0.5 / 100.0 // 4.0 / 100.0
+const Weight_polls_vs_baserate = 0.75          // 0.75

main.go

@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ type Poll struct {
 
 /* Globals */
 var r = rand.New(rand.NewPCG(uint64(100), uint64(2224)))
-var dem_nominee_name = "Biden"
+var dem_nominee_name = "Harris"
 var rep_nominee_name = "Trump"
 
 /* Sampling helper functions */
@@ -54,24 +54,24 @@ func getChanceCandidateWinsFromPollShare(candidate_p float64, poll_sample_size f
 }
 
 func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool) float64 {
-	biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
+	harris_percentage, harris_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
 	trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
-	if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
-		panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
+	if !harris_exists || !trump_exists {
+		panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Harris/Trump doesn't have Harris/Trump")
 	}
-	biden_share := biden_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
+	harris_share := harris_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
 	trump_share := trump_percentage / 100.0
 
-	normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
-	normalized_biden_share := biden_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
+	normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + harris_share)
+	normalized_harris_share := harris_share / (trump_share + harris_share)
 
-	joint_trump_biden_sample_size := (biden_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
-	std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
+	joint_trump_harris_sample_size := (harris_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
+	std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_harris_share) / joint_trump_harris_sample_size)
 
 	p_republican_win := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_error_poll_mean)
 
 	if pretty_print {
-		fmt.Printf("\n\t\tSample size: %f", joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
+		fmt.Printf("\n\t\tSample size: %f", joint_trump_harris_sample_size)
 		fmt.Printf("\n\t\tMean R: %f", 100.0*normalized_trump_share)
 		fmt.Printf("\n\t\tStd of mean R: %f", 100*std_error_poll_mean)
 		fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_win)
@@ -89,19 +89,19 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett
 	}
 
 	// Get the uncertainty from the poll
-	biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
+	harris_percentage, harris_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
 	trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
-	if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
-		panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
+	if !harris_exists || !trump_exists {
+		panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Harris/Trump doesn't have Harris/Trump")
 	}
-	biden_share := biden_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
+	harris_share := harris_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
 	trump_share := trump_percentage / 100.0
 
-	normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
-	normalized_biden_share := biden_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
+	normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + harris_share)
+	normalized_harris_share := harris_share / (trump_share + harris_share)
 
-	joint_trump_biden_sample_size := (biden_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
-	std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
+	joint_trump_harris_sample_size := (harris_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
+	std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_harris_share) / joint_trump_harris_sample_size)
 
 	/* Inject additional uncertainty */
 	/*
@@ -160,21 +160,21 @@ func printStates(states []State) {
 		}
 
 		// Aggregate poll
-		num_biden_votes := 0.0
+		num_harris_votes := 0.0
 		num_trump_votes := 0.0
 		for _, poll := range state.Polls {
-			biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
+			harris_percentage, harris_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
 			trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
-			if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
-				panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
+			if !harris_exists || !trump_exists {
+				panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have harris/Trump doesn't have harris/Trump")
 			}
-			num_biden_votes += (biden_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
+			num_harris_votes += (harris_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
 			num_trump_votes += (trump_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
 		}
-		aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
+		aggregate_sample_size := num_harris_votes + num_trump_votes
 		if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
 			var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
-			aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+			aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_harris_votes / aggregate_sample_size
 			aggregate_poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
 
 			fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregate poll: %+v", aggregate_poll)
@@ -230,22 +230,22 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
 			p_republican_win := p_baserate_republican_win // if no polls
 
 			/* Consider polls */
-			num_biden_votes := 0.0
+			num_harris_votes := 0.0
 			num_trump_votes := 0.0
 			for _, poll := range state.Polls {
-				biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
+				harris_percentage, harris_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
 				trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
-				if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
-					panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
+				if !harris_exists || !trump_exists {
+					panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have harris/Trump doesn't have harris/Trump")
 				}
-				num_biden_votes += (biden_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
+				num_harris_votes += (harris_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
 				num_trump_votes += (trump_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
 			}
 
-			aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
+			aggregate_sample_size := num_harris_votes + num_trump_votes
 			if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
 				var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
-				aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+				aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_harris_votes / aggregate_sample_size
 				aggregate_poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
 
 				p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
@@ -400,7 +400,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 		state_name := record[12]
 		end_date := record[14]
 		partisan := record[32]
-		candidate_name := record[44]
+		candidate_name := record[44] // cat president_polls_state.csv | cut -d, -f 45
 
 		date_layout := "1/2/06"
 		parsed_date, err := time.Parse(date_layout, end_date)
@@ -440,31 +440,31 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 	// Add the aggregated poll data to the respective states
 	for state_name, polls := range state_polls_map {
 
-		// Filter polls by recency and by having both Biden and Trump
+		// Filter polls by recency and by having both harris and Trump
 		var recent_polls []Poll
 		for _, poll := range polls {
 			if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -core.Include_polls_within_n_days)) {
 				recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
 			}
 		}
-		var recent_biden_trump_polls []Poll
+		var recent_harris_trump_polls []Poll
 		for _, recent_poll := range recent_polls {
-			has_biden := false
+			has_harris := false
 			has_trump := false
 			for candidate_name, _ := range recent_poll.PollResults {
 				if candidate_name == dem_nominee_name {
-					has_biden = true
+					has_harris = true
 				} else if candidate_name == rep_nominee_name {
 					has_trump = true
 				}
 			}
-			if has_biden && has_trump {
-				recent_biden_trump_polls = append(recent_biden_trump_polls, recent_poll)
+			if has_harris && has_trump {
+				recent_harris_trump_polls = append(recent_harris_trump_polls, recent_poll)
 			}
 		}
 
 		if state, exists := states[state_name]; exists {
-			state.Polls = recent_biden_trump_polls
+			state.Polls = recent_harris_trump_polls
 			states[state_name] = state // Not redundant
 		} else {
 			// fmt.Printf("Encountered new state: %s\n", state_name)