NunoSempere/2024-election-modelling
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extract key judgmental variables into core/main.go

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NunoSempere 2024-06-23 18:18:42 -04:00
parent 9c5d99a326
commit 060b9725ee
2 changed files with 9 additions and 3 deletions
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5
core/core.go Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
package core
const Include_polls_within_n_days = 15 //
const Std_additional_uncertainty = 0.0 // 4.0 / 100.0
const Weight_polls_vs_baserate = 0.8 // 0.75

7
main.go
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@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ package main
import (
"encoding/csv"
"fmt"
"git.nunosempere.com/NunoSempere/US-2024/core"
"math"
rand "math/rand/v2"
"os"
@ -112,7 +113,7 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett
- Increased polarization
Also note that the polls already have some error already
*/
std_additional_uncertainty := 4.0 / 100.0
std_additional_uncertainty := core.Std_additional_uncertainty
if n_republican_win == 0 || n_republican_win == 6 {
// if solid states for the last 6 elections
@ -250,7 +251,7 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
// p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false)
weight_polls := 0.75
weight_polls := core.Weight_polls_vs_baserate // 0.75
p_republican_win = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win
// p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls
}
@ -442,7 +443,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
// Filter polls by recency and by having both Biden and Trump
var recent_polls []Poll
for _, poll := range polls {
if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -30)) {
if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -core.Include_polls_within_n_days)) {
recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
}
}