samotsvety.org/track-record/index.md
2022-09-18 11:16:24 +00:00

7.6 KiB

Team achievements

The Samotsvety Forecasting team at INFER/CSET-Foretell—composed out of Nuño, Misha, Eli—took:

The above links require signing in, so here is a screenshot of our performance in the 2021 season:

![](https://i.imgur.com/4hayqba.png)
Note that we are a bit more than twice as good as the next best team, in terms of the relative Brier score

As of 2022-09-15, we are also 4th on the nascent Insight Prediction leaderboard as a result of one (1) large bet when we correctly foresaw the Russian invasion of Ukraine and put our money where our mouth was:

Individuals

Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15, occupying all top 4 spots on INFER's overall leaderboard:

All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15:

Misha Yagudin

  • Runs a research consultancy Arb Research
  • GJOpen Brier score 0.191 vs. 0.283 median, ratio 0.67
  • 7th and 3rd place forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER (I, II); 3rd all-time (as of 2022/9/15).

Nuño Sempere

Alex Lyzhov

  • ML PhD student at NYU
  • Participates primarily in AI-related forecasts due to expertise
  • Active Metaculus contributor

Eli Lifland

  • Figuring out what's up with AI alignment (and sometimes other stuff), writing Foxy Scout.
  • GJOpen Brier score 0.23 vs. 0.301 median, ratio 0.76
  • 1st forecaster of all time on CSET-Foretell/INFER (as of 2022/9/15)
  • 2nd in Metaculus Economist 2021 tournament, 1st in Salk Tournament (as of 2022/9/10).
  • Track record is described in detail here

Jonathan Mann

  • Professional in the financial sector
  • GJOpen Brier score 0.155 vs. 0.247 median, ratio 0.63
  • Pro forecaster on INFER
  • About + Github

Juan Cambeiro

Sam Glover

  • Writes about social science at samstack.io
  • Good Judgment Superforecaster
  • GJOpen Brier score 0.228vs 0.309 median, ratio 0.74, increased significantly since becoming inactive in late 2021

Molly Hickman

Gregory Lewis

  • Ex public health doctor, now working in biosecurity
  • Good Judgment Superforecaster (since 2021)
  • GJOpen Brier score 0.226 vs. 0.313 median, ratio 0.72

Pablo Stafforini

  • Philosopher by training, currently editor of the Global Priorities Encyclopedia.
  • 1st place in Road to Recovery tournament
  • 3rd place in Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament I tournament
  • 1st place in Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament II tournament
  • See my Metaculus profile for additional information.

Jared Leibowich

Greg Justice

  • Analyst in the healthcare space
  • GJOpen Brier score 0.187 vs. 0.251 median, ratio 0.75
  • 1st place in Adam Grant's Think Again challenge on GJ Open (as of 2022-09-11)
  • 4th place - Olivier Sibony's Noise challenge on GJ Open (as of 2022-09-11)
  • 7th place - Good Judgment Project 2.0, in initial accuracy (as of 2022-09-11)

@belikewater

  • MA in Economics, PhD in Neuroscience
  • GJOpen Brier score 0.215 vs. 0.279 median, ratio 0.77
  • Recently, also forecasting at INFER, Metaculus, Manifold Markets

Tolga Bilge

  • Mathematics student
  • GJI Superforecaster
  • Forecaster for the Swift Centre
  • GJOpen Brier score 0.164 vs. 0.254 median, ratio 0.65
  • Forecaster on INFER