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@ -24,40 +24,41 @@ Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15, occupying all top 4 spot
![](https://i.imgur.com/ygMxoht.png) ![](https://i.imgur.com/ygMxoht.png)
All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15: For each forecaster below, the time at which their profile was last updated is indicated in a superscript.
#### Misha Yagudin #### Misha Yagudin<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Runs a research consultancy [Arb Research](https://arbresearch.com/) - Runs a research consultancy [Arb Research](https://arbresearch.com/)
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/yagudin) Brier score 0.191 vs. 0.283 median, ratio 0.67 - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/yagudin) Brier score 0.191 vs. 0.283 median, ratio 0.67
- 7th and 3rd place forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER ([I](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1), [II](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2)); [3rd](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/yagudin/performance?alltime=true) all-time (as of 2022/9/15). - 7th and 3rd place forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER ([I](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1), [II](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2)); [3rd](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/yagudin/performance?alltime=true) all-time (as of 2022/9/15).
#### Nuño Sempere #### Nuño Sempere<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Researcher at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/) - Researcher at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/)
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/LokiOdinevich) Brier score 0.209 vs. 0.294 median, ratio 0.71 - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/LokiOdinevich) Brier score 0.209 vs. 0.294 median, ratio 0.71
- Top 5 forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER ([I](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1),[II](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2)); [4th](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/loki/performance?alltime=true) all-time (as of 2022/9/15) - Top 5 forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER ([I](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1),[II](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2)); [4th](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/loki/performance?alltime=true) all-time (as of 2022/9/15)
#### Alex Lyzhov #### Alex Lyzhov<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- ML PhD student at NYU - ML PhD student at NYU
- Participates primarily in AI-related forecasts due to expertise - Participates primarily in AI-related forecasts due to expertise
- Active Metaculus [contributor](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/103447/) - Active Metaculus [contributor](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/103447/)
#### Eli Lifland #### Eli Lifland<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Figuring out what's up with AI alignment (and sometimes other stuff), writing [Foxy Scout](https://www.foxy-scout.com/). - Figuring out what's up with AI alignment (and sometimes other stuff), writing [Foxy Scout](https://www.foxy-scout.com/).
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/elifland) Brier score 0.23 vs. 0.301 median, ratio 0.76 - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/elifland) Brier score 0.23 vs. 0.301 median, ratio 0.76
- [1st](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/elifland/performance?alltime=true) forecaster of all time on CSET-Foretell/INFER (as of 2022/9/15) - [1st](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/elifland/performance?alltime=true) forecaster of all time on CSET-Foretell/INFER (as of 2022/9/15)
- 2nd in Metaculus [Economist 2021 tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11438/economist-2021-tournament-winners/), 1st in [Salk Tournament](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/contests/?selected=salk-tournament) (as of 2022/9/10). - 2nd in Metaculus [Economist 2021 tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11438/economist-2021-tournament-winners/), 1st in [Salk Tournament](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/contests/?selected=salk-tournament) (as of 2022/9/10).
- Track record is described in detail [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAkhqkNQByEaT8MED/personal-forecasting-retrospective-2020-2022) - Track record is described in detail [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAkhqkNQByEaT8MED/personal-forecasting-retrospective-2020-2022)
#### Jonathan Mann #### Jonathan Mann<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Professional in the financial sector - Professional in the financial sector
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/JonathanMann) Brier score 0.155 vs. 0.247 median, ratio 0.63 - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/JonathanMann) Brier score 0.155 vs. 0.247 median, ratio 0.63
- Pro forecaster on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/JonathanMann/performance) - Pro forecaster on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/JonathanMann/performance)
- [About + Github](https://jonathanmann.github.io/about/) - [About + Github](https://jonathanmann.github.io/about/)
#### Juan Cambeiro #### Juan Cambeiro<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- MPH student in epidemiology at Columbia University - MPH student in epidemiology at Columbia University
- Biosecurity fellow at the Institute for Progress - Biosecurity fellow at the Institute for Progress
@ -69,25 +70,25 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15:
- Second in [Good Judgment Open's In the News 2020 challenge](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/36-in-the-news-2020/scores) - Second in [Good Judgment Open's In the News 2020 challenge](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/36-in-the-news-2020/scores)
- First in the time active on [Good Judgment Open's Coronavirus Outbreak challenge](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/43-coronavirus-outbreak/scores), now third - First in the time active on [Good Judgment Open's Coronavirus Outbreak challenge](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/43-coronavirus-outbreak/scores), now third
#### Sam Glover #### Sam Glover<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Writes about social science at [samstack.io](https://www.samstack.io) - Writes about social science at [samstack.io](https://www.samstack.io)
- [Good Judgment](https://www.gjopen.com/) Superforecaster - [Good Judgment](https://www.gjopen.com/) Superforecaster
- GJOpen [Brier score](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/samglover97) 0.228vs 0.309 median, ratio 0.74, increased significantly since becoming inactive in late 2021 - GJOpen [Brier score](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/samglover97) 0.228vs 0.309 median, ratio 0.74, increased significantly since becoming inactive in late 2021
#### Molly Hickman #### Molly Hickman<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Data scientist at [nLine, Inc.](https://nline.io/), and previously worked on crowd-sourced prediction projects on the evaluation side. - Data scientist at [nLine, Inc.](https://nline.io/), and previously worked on crowd-sourced prediction projects on the evaluation side.
- [Top 2](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/mollygh) forecaster of all time on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/) (as of 2022/9/15); [2nd place forecaster in season 2021](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2) (-1.684 relative Brier score); [8th place forecaster in season 2020](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1) (-0.529 relative Brier score) - [Top 2](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/mollygh) forecaster of all time on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/) (as of 2022/9/15); [2nd place forecaster in season 2021](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2) (-1.684 relative Brier score); [8th place forecaster in season 2020](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1) (-0.529 relative Brier score)
#### Gregory Lewis #### Gregory Lewis<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Ex public health doctor, now working in biosecurity - Ex public health doctor, now working in biosecurity
- [Good Judgment](https://www.gjopen.com/) Superforecaster (since 2021) - [Good Judgment](https://www.gjopen.com/) Superforecaster (since 2021)
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Gjlewis) Brier score 0.226 vs. 0.313 median, ratio 0.72 - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Gjlewis) Brier score 0.226 vs. 0.313 median, ratio 0.72
#### Pablo Stafforini #### Pablo Stafforini<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Philosopher by training, currently editor of the *Global Priorities Encyclopedia*. - Philosopher by training, currently editor of the *Global Priorities Encyclopedia*.
- 1st place in Road to Recovery tournament - 1st place in Road to Recovery tournament
@ -95,7 +96,7 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15:
- 1st place in Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament II tournament - 1st place in Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament II tournament
- See [my Metaculus profile](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/101341/) for additional information. - See [my Metaculus profile](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/101341/) for additional information.
#### Jared Leibowich #### Jared Leibowich<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Data Scientist - Data Scientist
- Forecaster for the [Swift Centre](https://www.swiftcentre.org/) - Forecaster for the [Swift Centre](https://www.swiftcentre.org/)
@ -103,7 +104,7 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15:
- Placed 1st out of 7,000 ["In the News 2021" Good Judgment competition](https://www.gjopen.com/leaderboards/challenges/47-in-the-news-2021) - Placed 1st out of 7,000 ["In the News 2021" Good Judgment competition](https://www.gjopen.com/leaderboards/challenges/47-in-the-news-2021)
- Currently ranked 1st out of 3,000 ["In the News 2022" Good Judgment competition](https://www.gjopen.com/leaderboards/challenges/57-in-the-news-2022) - Currently ranked 1st out of 3,000 ["In the News 2022" Good Judgment competition](https://www.gjopen.com/leaderboards/challenges/57-in-the-news-2022)
#### Greg Justice #### Greg Justice<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Analyst in the healthcare space - Analyst in the healthcare space
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/slapthepancake) Brier score 0.187 vs. 0.251 median, ratio 0.75 - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/slapthepancake) Brier score 0.187 vs. 0.251 median, ratio 0.75
@ -112,13 +113,13 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15:
- 4th place - Olivier Sibony's Noise challenge on GJ Open (as of 2022-09-11) - 4th place - Olivier Sibony's Noise challenge on GJ Open (as of 2022-09-11)
- 7th place - Good Judgment Project 2.0, in initial accuracy (as of 2022-09-11) - 7th place - Good Judgment Project 2.0, in initial accuracy (as of 2022-09-11)
#### @belikewater #### @belikewater<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- MA in Economics, PhD in Neuroscience - MA in Economics, PhD in Neuroscience
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/belikewater) Brier score 0.215 vs. 0.279 median, ratio 0.77 - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/belikewater) Brier score 0.215 vs. 0.279 median, ratio 0.77
- Recently, also forecasting at INFER, Metaculus, Manifold Markets - Recently, also forecasting at INFER, Metaculus, Manifold Markets
#### Tolga Bilge #### Tolga Bilge<sup>2022-09-15</sup>
- Mathematics student - Mathematics student
- GJI Superforecaster - GJI Superforecaster
@ -126,4 +127,11 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15:
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Tolga) Brier score 0.164 vs. 0.254 median, ratio 0.65 - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Tolga) Brier score 0.164 vs. 0.254 median, ratio 0.65
- Forecaster on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/Tolga) - Forecaster on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/Tolga)
#### Vidur Kapur<sup>2032-01-22</sup>
- Holds degrees in Medicine and Public Health
- Good Judgment Superforecaster
- GJ Open Brier score 0.276 vs. 0.372 median, ratio 0.74
- 4th place forecaster for both initial and final forecast in the Good Judgment Project 2.0 (GJP 2.0) COVID-19 forecasting tournament
[^1]: Says Pablo. [^1]: Says Pablo.