From 9fd07a55f2442919662f35d0d005a8b194f6ca5f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nuno Sempere Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2023 18:35:37 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] tweak: add Vidur, add time of last update. --- track-record/index.md | 38 +++++++++++++++++++++++--------------- 1 file changed, 23 insertions(+), 15 deletions(-) diff --git a/track-record/index.md b/track-record/index.md index 0a29b60..597e727 100644 --- a/track-record/index.md +++ b/track-record/index.md @@ -24,40 +24,41 @@ Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15, occupying all top 4 spot ![](https://i.imgur.com/ygMxoht.png) -All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15: +For each forecaster below, the time at which their profile was last updated is indicated in a superscript. -#### Misha Yagudin +#### Misha Yagudin2022-09-15 - Runs a research consultancy [Arb Research](https://arbresearch.com/) - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/yagudin) Brier score 0.191 vs. 0.283 median, ratio 0.67 - 7th and 3rd place forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER ([I](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1), [II](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2)); [3rd](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/yagudin/performance?alltime=true) all-time (as of 2022/9/15). -#### Nuño Sempere +#### Nuño Sempere2022-09-15 - Researcher at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/) - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/LokiOdinevich) Brier score 0.209 vs. 0.294 median, ratio 0.71 - Top 5 forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER ([I](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1),[II](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2)); [4th](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/loki/performance?alltime=true) all-time (as of 2022/9/15) -#### Alex Lyzhov +#### Alex Lyzhov2022-09-15 - ML PhD student at NYU - Participates primarily in AI-related forecasts due to expertise - Active Metaculus [contributor](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/103447/) -#### Eli Lifland +#### Eli Lifland2022-09-15 + - Figuring out what's up with AI alignment (and sometimes other stuff), writing [Foxy Scout](https://www.foxy-scout.com/). - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/elifland) Brier score 0.23 vs. 0.301 median, ratio 0.76 - [1st](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/elifland/performance?alltime=true) forecaster of all time on CSET-Foretell/INFER (as of 2022/9/15) - 2nd in Metaculus [Economist 2021 tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11438/economist-2021-tournament-winners/), 1st in [Salk Tournament](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/contests/?selected=salk-tournament) (as of 2022/9/10). - Track record is described in detail [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAkhqkNQByEaT8MED/personal-forecasting-retrospective-2020-2022) -#### Jonathan Mann +#### Jonathan Mann2022-09-15 - Professional in the financial sector - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/JonathanMann) Brier score 0.155 vs. 0.247 median, ratio 0.63 - Pro forecaster on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/JonathanMann/performance) - [About + Github](https://jonathanmann.github.io/about/) -#### Juan Cambeiro +#### Juan Cambeiro2022-09-15 - MPH student in epidemiology at Columbia University - Biosecurity fellow at the Institute for Progress @@ -69,25 +70,25 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15: - Second in [Good Judgment Open's In the News 2020 challenge](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/36-in-the-news-2020/scores) - First in the time active on [Good Judgment Open's Coronavirus Outbreak challenge](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/43-coronavirus-outbreak/scores), now third -#### Sam Glover +#### Sam Glover2022-09-15 - Writes about social science at [samstack.io](https://www.samstack.io) - [Good Judgment](https://www.gjopen.com/) Superforecaster - GJOpen [Brier score](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/samglover97) 0.228vs 0.309 median, ratio 0.74, increased significantly since becoming inactive in late 2021 -#### Molly Hickman +#### Molly Hickman2022-09-15 - Data scientist at [nLine, Inc.](https://nline.io/), and previously worked on crowd-sourced prediction projects on the evaluation side. - [Top 2](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/mollygh) forecaster of all time on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/) (as of 2022/9/15); [2nd place forecaster in season 2021](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2) (-1.684 relative Brier score); [8th place forecaster in season 2020](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1) (-0.529 relative Brier score) -#### Gregory Lewis +#### Gregory Lewis2022-09-15 - Ex public health doctor, now working in biosecurity - [Good Judgment](https://www.gjopen.com/) Superforecaster (since 2021) - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Gjlewis) Brier score 0.226 vs. 0.313 median, ratio 0.72 -#### Pablo Stafforini +#### Pablo Stafforini2022-09-15 - Philosopher by training, currently editor of the *Global Priorities Encyclopedia*. - 1st place in Road to Recovery tournament @@ -95,7 +96,7 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15: - 1st place in Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament II tournament - See [my Metaculus profile](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/101341/) for additional information. -#### Jared Leibowich +#### Jared Leibowich2022-09-15 - Data Scientist - Forecaster for the [Swift Centre](https://www.swiftcentre.org/) @@ -103,7 +104,7 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15: - Placed 1st out of 7,000 ["In the News 2021" Good Judgment competition](https://www.gjopen.com/leaderboards/challenges/47-in-the-news-2021) - Currently ranked 1st out of 3,000 ["In the News 2022" Good Judgment competition](https://www.gjopen.com/leaderboards/challenges/57-in-the-news-2022) -#### Greg Justice +#### Greg Justice2022-09-15 - Analyst in the healthcare space - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/slapthepancake) Brier score 0.187 vs. 0.251 median, ratio 0.75 @@ -112,13 +113,13 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15: - 4th place - Olivier Sibony's Noise challenge on GJ Open (as of 2022-09-11) - 7th place - Good Judgment Project 2.0, in initial accuracy (as of 2022-09-11) -#### @belikewater +#### @belikewater2022-09-15 - MA in Economics, PhD in Neuroscience - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/belikewater) Brier score 0.215 vs. 0.279 median, ratio 0.77 - Recently, also forecasting at INFER, Metaculus, Manifold Markets -#### Tolga Bilge +#### Tolga Bilge2022-09-15 - Mathematics student - GJI Superforecaster @@ -126,4 +127,11 @@ All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15: - [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Tolga) Brier score 0.164 vs. 0.254 median, ratio 0.65 - Forecaster on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/Tolga) +#### Vidur Kapur2032-01-22 + +- Holds degrees in Medicine and Public Health +- Good Judgment Superforecaster +- GJ Open Brier score 0.276 vs. 0.372 median, ratio 0.74 +- 4th place forecaster for both initial and final forecast in the Good Judgment Project 2.0 (GJP 2.0) COVID-19 forecasting tournament + [^1]: Says Pablo.