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Nuno Sempere 2022-10-31 18:16:31 +00:00
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<form method="post" action="https://listmonk.nunosempere.com/subscription/form" class="listmonk-form">
<div>
<h3>Subscribe</h3>
<input type="hidden" name="nonce" />
<p><input type="email" name="email" required placeholder="E-mail" /></p>
<p><input type="text" name="name" placeholder="Name (optional)" /></p>
<p>
<input id="8b4b1" type="checkbox" name="l" checked value="8b4b1b32-7df5-4ccb-a99e-60edd4f4b40c" />
<label for="8b4b1" style="font-size: 18px">samotsvety.org</label>
</p>
<p><input type="submit" value="Subscribe" class="button"/></p>
</div>
</form>

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@ -10,5 +10,5 @@ Scott Alexander [describes us as](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-m
> Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.
We are open to forecasting consulting requests, and can be reached out at [info@samotsvety.org](mailto:info@samotsvety.org). Readers might also want to view our [track record](./track-record), browse our [projects](./projects) or read our [media mentions](./media-mentions).
We are open to forecasting consulting requests, and can be reached out at [info@samotsvety.org](mailto:info@samotsvety.org). Readers might also want to view our [track record](./track-record), browse our [projects](./projects), read our [media mentions](./media-mentions) or [subscribe to our updates](https://samotsvety.org/.subscribe/).

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N.B.: We are open to media mentions or collaborations, and can be reached at [info@samotsvety.org](mailto:info@samotsvety.org).
[WIRED: Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/micromorts-nuclear-war) covers our group at some length throughout the article.
> In October, the Samotsvety group updated their predictions. In a [blog post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022) published on October 3, they estimated that the chance of London being hit with a nuclear weapon in the next three months was now around 0.02 percent. Since their previous prediction only covered a single month, it’s hard to directly compare these forecasts in terms of micromorts, but [Sempere estimates](https://www.squiggle-language.com/playground/#code=eNqVU8lu20AM%2FRXCpzaotwIGCiM9dAkKo01SwHZz0WUsURKREanOYsMI8u%2BlFieu06TIRRpuj%2B9xOHcDX8puGavKuP1gHlzEd63rIqMg7uAhpkDGLn9HKgqLy%2BCIi8F8MB7DJaVOKnEB0AeqTEAPOwolTKES1v8Gww6RNZwaawIJgw9Y%2B4QT1vqrmFo0DuKtM8SYsIuezNqj7yM3aGphv%2BB1lwEfYTKaTGYQpDnMOhQJCKE0QT8INTqSDCQHZYRAHizmASL7GlPKCbOT5lefVtcJPzK8jsFThn3Hb7TFQ%2Fcbo7xuMetYTDsS0xmAop0PISdrh8THWCtp0NecCutM1WGsFv9X5VnCAK9h9A9JDTvu7R%2FaXnis2aXeXRDN3lCx%2Fr5efqGwbxFa1ItnWnaC%2B6m%2Ff6L3COtU6sujOING6Kuo9EoXVW3SAMRgxQcoJTpdKrOxuJKmtMbPmIvrmPfEP5zyrg7r6zXtWRHtZbyZwhCewr8F1TC9bCn9dLLRjD0UovunHY318vAwgDISv%2BfUqagUcmUvzoOPaQnGQ4swhIXG0XhdMXGQ4cGonWQxDbRVco1mA6meXq6hhwn9lf3L2Ija0VPB2NL00W0VmYsudyfOZmDygE6twwbtiNXRY4xGo%2BYaWusr%2BdoaRb9rxgTwONP50bmLJXw%2FuP8DtRGUZA%3D%3D) that their projected risk for a Londoner over the next one-to-three months may now be around 40 micromorts
[CNN: How to assess the risk of nuclear war without freaking out](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel/index.html) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220628081603/https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel/index.html)):
> One group of [highly regarded forecasters](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#_blank) put the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon against London before February 2023 at 0.8%[^1]

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https://samotsvety.org/blog/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2021/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2021/12/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2021/12/31/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2021/12/31/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/03/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/03/10/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/03/10/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/09/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/09/09/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/09/09/samotsvety-s-ai-risk-forecasts/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/10/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/10/03/
https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/10/03/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022/