From 3208e0a42ad4bd8f1993c5963b3ae4ed51ab5f30 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nuno Sempere Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2022 18:16:31 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] feat: add subscribe page. --- .subscribe/index.html | 15 +++++++++++++++ index.md | 2 +- media-mentions/index.md | 4 ++++ sitemap.gz | Bin 272 -> 334 bytes sitemap.txt | 7 +++++++ 5 files changed, 27 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 .subscribe/index.html diff --git a/.subscribe/index.html b/.subscribe/index.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b31e10c --- /dev/null +++ b/.subscribe/index.html @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +
+
+

Subscribe

+ +

+

+ +

+ + +

+ +

+
+
diff --git a/index.md b/index.md index 1f37ac3..1f53f1e 100644 --- a/index.md +++ b/index.md @@ -10,5 +10,5 @@ Scott Alexander [describes us as](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-m > Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”. -We are open to forecasting consulting requests, and can be reached out at [info@samotsvety.org](mailto:info@samotsvety.org). Readers might also want to view our [track record](./track-record), browse our [projects](./projects) or read our [media mentions](./media-mentions). +We are open to forecasting consulting requests, and can be reached out at [info@samotsvety.org](mailto:info@samotsvety.org). Readers might also want to view our [track record](./track-record), browse our [projects](./projects), read our [media mentions](./media-mentions) or [subscribe to our updates](https://samotsvety.org/.subscribe/). diff --git a/media-mentions/index.md b/media-mentions/index.md index 2cc0122..411a2fc 100644 --- a/media-mentions/index.md +++ b/media-mentions/index.md @@ -2,6 +2,10 @@ N.B.: We are open to media mentions or collaborations, and can be reached at [info@samotsvety.org](mailto:info@samotsvety.org). +[WIRED: Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/micromorts-nuclear-war) covers our group at some length throughout the article. + +> In October, the Samotsvety group updated their predictions. In a [blog post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022) published on October 3, they estimated that the chance of London being hit with a nuclear weapon in the next three months was now around 0.02 percent. Since their previous prediction only covered a single month, it’s hard to directly compare these forecasts in terms of micromorts, but [Sempere estimates](https://www.squiggle-language.com/playground/#code=eNqVU8lu20AM%2FRXCpzaotwIGCiM9dAkKo01SwHZz0WUsURKREanOYsMI8u%2BlFieu06TIRRpuj%2B9xOHcDX8puGavKuP1gHlzEd63rIqMg7uAhpkDGLn9HKgqLy%2BCIi8F8MB7DJaVOKnEB0AeqTEAPOwolTKES1v8Gww6RNZwaawIJgw9Y%2B4QT1vqrmFo0DuKtM8SYsIuezNqj7yM3aGphv%2BB1lwEfYTKaTGYQpDnMOhQJCKE0QT8INTqSDCQHZYRAHizmASL7GlPKCbOT5lefVtcJPzK8jsFThn3Hb7TFQ%2Fcbo7xuMetYTDsS0xmAop0PISdrh8THWCtp0NecCutM1WGsFv9X5VnCAK9h9A9JDTvu7R%2FaXnis2aXeXRDN3lCx%2Fr5efqGwbxFa1ItnWnaC%2B6m%2Ff6L3COtU6sujOING6Kuo9EoXVW3SAMRgxQcoJTpdKrOxuJKmtMbPmIvrmPfEP5zyrg7r6zXtWRHtZbyZwhCewr8F1TC9bCn9dLLRjD0UovunHY318vAwgDISv%2BfUqagUcmUvzoOPaQnGQ4swhIXG0XhdMXGQ4cGonWQxDbRVco1mA6meXq6hhwn9lf3L2Ija0VPB2NL00W0VmYsudyfOZmDygE6twwbtiNXRY4xGo%2BYaWusr%2BdoaRb9rxgTwONP50bmLJXw%2FuP8DtRGUZA%3D%3D) that their projected risk for a Londoner over the next one-to-three months may now be around 40 micromorts + [CNN: How to assess the risk of nuclear war without freaking out](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel/index.html) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220628081603/https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel/index.html)): > One group of [highly regarded forecasters](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#_blank) put the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon against London before February 2023 at 0.8%[^1] diff --git a/sitemap.gz b/sitemap.gz index 72e349f891e77c9a91dd0f73a050cbe51efdee36..37308141cfb9d91cd354109349673dc4c81d9789 100755 GIT binary patch literal 334 zcmV-U0kQrciwFQPby{Np1GSY+PQx$|h4(#0l>Nj`DnyIYbjJzc0IoAMrg0{kaa*`O z4y^du~CetASVp(pKZII_NrD> zMco?-p4z6;RRyJnO2@=CR;!8hM_vS!X`p45jJr&Cot`3 gw=)A9dw^&l;&zt1`ps3BpRrkd0H^Lj)k+5d0J1rqO#lD@ literal 272 zcmV+r0q_1FiwFSeK~ZA>1GUskPQx$|0MLC;5qUqclP+kHlkPYH9KdykB-EeC<1}!4 z99oG5R0649dOlC`_#+SR))Z$9G? zzvSjRl?#1qbo11yh~RbfM+|qLoW*WbV9~|&Jn2_i?4f%2zdQy1hC1HWj6vxWq`Txp WchlYdbou3XX*Zuha=O-z1ONaD*o8#^ diff --git a/sitemap.txt b/sitemap.txt index e81e87c..b730a90 100644 --- a/sitemap.txt +++ b/sitemap.txt @@ -1,8 +1,15 @@ https://samotsvety.org/blog/ +https://samotsvety.org/blog/2021/ +https://samotsvety.org/blog/2021/12/ +https://samotsvety.org/blog/2021/12/31/ +https://samotsvety.org/blog/2021/12/31/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting/ https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/ https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/03/ https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/03/10/ https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/03/10/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022/ +https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/09/ +https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/09/09/ +https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/09/09/samotsvety-s-ai-risk-forecasts/ https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/10/ https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/10/03/ https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/10/03/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022/