18 KiB
18 KiB
| 1 | Title | URL | Platform | Binary question? | Percentage | Description | # Forecasts | Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 51% | This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. | 1940 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 3 | Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-march-15-2021-1 | PolyMarket | true | 86% | This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. | 654 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 4 | Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match | PolyMarket | true | 90% | This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 610 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 5 | Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 98% | This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) | 3984 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 6 | Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 5% | This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 2455 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 7 | Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 165 Gwei on February 16? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-165-gwei-on-february-16 | PolyMarket | true | 10% | This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 165 Gwei on February 16, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 165 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 165 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of February 16, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 487 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 8 | $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 4% | This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to "Yes". | 1839 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 9 | Will Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by March 15, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-johnson-and-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-march-15-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 96% | This is a market on whether Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, and "No" otherwise. This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 109 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 10 | Will Hashmasks be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-hashmasks-be-the-highest-volume-nft-category-by-7-day-volume-on-february-25-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 37% | This is a market on whether the Hashmasks Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hashmasks is the highest volume NFT by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021, and "No" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://opensea.io/rankings sorted by 7-day volume. | 149 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 11 | Will the price of Unisocks be above $100,000 on February 28, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-price-of-unisocks-be-above-100000-on-february-28-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 20% | This is a market on if the USD price of Unisocks Edition 0 $SOCKS will be above $100,000 on February 28th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/unisocks. This market will resolve to “Yes" if SOCKS is trading above $100,000 according to Coingecko on the resolution date, and “No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 56 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 12 | Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 35% | This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 167 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 13 | How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 17, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-17-2021 | PolyMarket | false | none | This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 17, 2021 at 3:00pm EST. At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,478 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled "@MCuban" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. Neither Mark Cuban, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to "Yes". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @MarkCuban will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 739 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 14 | Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open-1 | PolyMarket | true | 50% | This is a market on whether Novak Djokovic will win the Men's Singles at the Australian Open. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Djokovic wins, and "No" otherwise. In the event of any postponement of the Australian Open, this market will not be resolved until the tournament takes place to completion. In the event that the tournament is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be https://ausopen.com/. | 223 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 15 | Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 41% | This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 1089 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 16 | Will the Rockets or the Wizards win their February 15th matchup? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-rockets-or-the-wizards-win-their-february-15th-matchup | PolyMarket | true | 100% | This is a market on which team will win the February 15th, 2021 matchup between the Houston Rockets and the Washington Wizards. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/. | 366 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 17 | Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 11% | This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve "Yes" if the aforementioned conditions are met and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 240 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| 18 | Will the Jazz or the 76ers win their February 15h matchup? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-jazz-or-the-76ers-win-their-february-15h-matchup | PolyMarket | true | 0% | This is a market on which team will win the February 15th, 2021 matchup between the Utah Jazz and the Philadelphia 76ers. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/. | 505 | ★★☆☆☆ |