22 KiB
22 KiB
| 1 | title | url | platform | options | description | numforecasts | stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/" target="_blank">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column "2021 Traveler Throughput" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers. | 4 | |
| 3 | What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"The Games will begin","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be postponed again by more than a day","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be cancelled","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | The <a href="https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020" target="_blank">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href="https://tokyo2020.org/en/" target="_blank">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again" target="_blank">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html" target="_blank">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games. | 4 | |
| 4 | Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"National Rally (Rassemblement national)","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Republicans (Les Républicains)","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Republic Forward (La République En Marche !)","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"None of the above","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2022, with a possible <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/" target="_blank">run-off</a> two weeks later. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron may run <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/world/europe/france-macron-right.html" target="_blank">again</a>, but he has not yet committed to doing so. | 4 | |
| 5 | In the next Italian general election, which party will win the largest number of parliamentary seats?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"League (Lega)","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"None of the parties above will win the largest number of seats or there will be a tie","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, though a <a href="https://www.thelocal.it/20210126/explained-why-has-italy-prime-minister-resigned-and-what-happens-now" target="_blank">snap</a> general election could be <a href="http://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_inglese.pdf" target="_blank">called</a> before then. The question will resolve on the total number of <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/" target="_blank">seats</a> won in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate combined. | 4 | |
| 6 | Before 1 April 2022, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | Since taking office in 2019, there have been <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/impeach-bolsonaro-just-five-months-in-talk-has-already-begun" target="_blank">calls</a> to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-brazils-bolsonaro-faces-calls-for-his-impeachment.html" target="_blank">impeach</a> President Bolsonaro, most recently due to his policies relating to the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-a/brazils-bolsonaro-isolated-weakened-by-coronavirus-denial-idUSKBN21K333" target="_blank">COVID-19</a> pandemic. | 4 | |
| 7 | When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Before 20 January 2023","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20 January 2023 and 19 January 2025","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"On 20 January 2025","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 21 January 2025","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx" target="_blank">20 January</a> 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv" target="_blank">25th Amendment</a> for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count. | 4 | |
| 8 | When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">companies</a> are trying to <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19" target="_blank">FDA</a> has authorized <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">here</a>. "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">Compassionate use</a>" and "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">emergency use</a>" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). | 4 | |
| 9 | When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Before 1 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 November 2021","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390" target="_blank">criticized</a> for being <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP" target="_blank">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href="https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html" target="_blank">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. | 4 | |
| 10 | When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history" target="_blank">pushing</a> to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325" target="_blank">execute</a> its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech" target="_blank">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus" target="_blank">UK</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976" target="_blank">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. | 4 | |
| 11 | In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Less than 23%","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 27%","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | In its 2020 report, The <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices" target="_blank">Conference</a> <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf" target="_blank">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive" target="_blank">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/us/" target="_blank">report</a>. | 4 | |
| 12 | What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Lower by more than 8%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 4%","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering" target="_blank">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/" target="_blank">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending" target="_blank">website</a>, choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls" target="_blank">April 2020</a> report. | 4 | |
| 13 | What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"At or below 2020 levels","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 100%","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 100%","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | Interest in <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter" target="_blank">sustainable</a> <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us" target="_blank">sector</a> <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs" target="_blank">investment</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule" target="_blank">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows" target="_blank">data</a> from <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records" target="_blank">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021. | 4 | |
| 14 | When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | Dozens of companies are trying to <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">viable</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">can</a> be <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank"> found</a> <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">here</a>. "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). | 4 | |
| 15 | As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits" target="_blank">workers</a> to work from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487" target="_blank">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain" target="_blank">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. | 4 |