23 KiB
23 KiB
| 1 | title | url | platform | description | options | numforecasts | numforecasters | stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3354372702392304758606315718408588","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6645627297607695241393684281591412","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 1012 | 4 | |
| 3 | Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/ | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9415230824472975309831197222021579","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.05847691755270246901688027779784206","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 1345 | 3 | |
| 4 | Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1 | PolyMarket | This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Bezos","probability":"0.7547543190214724443952393949548145","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Musk","probability":"0.2452456809785275556047606050451855","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 115 | 4 | |
| 5 | Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.6932702187929259413244521788771466","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.3067297812070740586755478211228534","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 663 | 4 | |
| 6 | Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match | PolyMarket | This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.8991914670166528160553490117706543","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.1008085329833471839446509882293457","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 748 | 4 | |
| 7 | Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to "Yes". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to "No". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3802427852259856186827241197058271","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6197572147740143813172758802941729","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 47 | 4 | |
| 8 | Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1 | PolyMarket | This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and "No" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/. | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.01171843501725611250569006864795669","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9882815649827438874943099313520433","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 166 | 3 | |
| 9 | Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and "No" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.573155264328923542707764386955143","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.426844735671076457292235613044857","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 223 | 4 | |
| 10 | Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.0503784603485542459425111089586649","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9496215396514457540574888910413351","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 550 | 3 | |
| 11 | Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.7505369446596093438315284089122733","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.2494630553403906561684715910877267","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 264 | 4 | |
| 12 | Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.009040131947168423474997820006593374","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9909598680528315765250021799934066","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 3967 | 3 | |
| 13 | Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Texas","probability":"0.3881022631673488932820187667696808","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florida","probability":"0.4698314285778599595421237751818497","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"California","probability":"0.1420663082547911471758574580484695","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 170 | 4 | |
| 14 | Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4323090845591573631389997231358116","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5676909154408426368610002768641884","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 330 | 4 | |
| 15 | Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”. | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1175208812305432541032320322504685","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8824791187694567458967679677495315","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 52 | 4 | |
| 16 | Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed | This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [] | ||||
| 17 | Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4590725161076313900835079793703723","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5409274838923686099164920206296277","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 5417 | 4 | |
| 18 | Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1 | This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | [] | ||||
| 19 | Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1 | PolyMarket | This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to "Yes" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise. | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.06315336882214429189149113049678626","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9368466311778557081085088695032137","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 79 | 3 | |
| 20 | Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends | PolyMarket | This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.7134059404626703822915834607534673","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.2865940595373296177084165392465327","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 38 | 4 | |
| 21 | Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021 | PolyMarket | This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to "Yes". | [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2859018905251165145550449037792685","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7140981094748834854449550962207315","type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 453 | 4 |