quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity
501a5364b9
metaforecast/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv

38 KiB
Raw Blame History

1TitleURLPlatformBinary question?Percentage# Forecasts
2Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021Good Judgment Opentrue54%56
3Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021Good Judgment Opentrue64%58
4Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue1%86
5Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021Good Judgment Opentrue10%150
6When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canadaGood Judgment Openfalsenone75
7How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone80
8Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-seaGood Judgment Opentrue2%88
9Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-electionGood Judgment Opentrue90%121
10Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021Good Judgment Opentrue15%50
11How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-electionsGood Judgment Openfalsenone70
12Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliamentGood Judgment Openfalsenone39
13When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-electionGood Judgment Openfalsenone73
14Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021Good Judgment Opentrue42%49
15What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone94
16Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lvGood Judgment Openfalsenone166
17Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021Good Judgment Opentrue52%78
18Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021Good Judgment Opentrue100%217
19Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone69
20Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-unionGood Judgment Opentrue74%128
21Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Opentrue32%120
22Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022Good Judgment Opentrue4%67
23Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-seaGood Judgment Opentrue3%176
24When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcyGood Judgment Openfalsenone138
25At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-worldGood Judgment Openfalsenone125
26Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-luciaGood Judgment Openfalsenone83
27How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-electionGood Judgment Openfalsenone34
28What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone181
29How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1887-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-americas-region-as-of-1-february-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone566
30How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1886-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-united-kingdom-as-of-1-february-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone602
31What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone127
32Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021Good Judgment Opentrue15%140
33When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabisGood Judgment Openfalsenone22
34On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higherGood Judgment Openfalsenone292
35On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0Good Judgment Openfalsenone208
36Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knessetGood Judgment Openfalsenone217
37At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone87
38Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoinGood Judgment Opentrue44%114
39Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00Good Judgment Opentrue3%122
40Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone346
41Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone295
42Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-chinaGood Judgment Opentrue16%204
43Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%259
44Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowersGood Judgment Opentrue25%183
45Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-researchGood Judgment Opentrue20%236
46Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-chinaGood Judgment Openfalsenone201
47Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022Good Judgment Opentrue8%181
48When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-sGood Judgment Openfalsenone164
49Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisherGood Judgment Opentrue57%60
50Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zeroGood Judgment Opentrue10%247
51Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020Good Judgment Opentrue85%81
52In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitutionGood Judgment Opentrue66%48
53What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloombergGood Judgment Openfalsenone129
54Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstanGood Judgment Openfalsenone85
55Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-reportGood Judgment Opentrue79%258
56Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peruGood Judgment Openfalsenone103
57Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20Good Judgment Opentrue50%349
58Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnamGood Judgment Openfalsenone194
59What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone400
60How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone826
61How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone384
62Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazilGood Judgment Opentrue252
63Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021Good Judgment Opentrue1%342
64Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue3%388
65In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-countGood Judgment Opentrue195
66Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eiaGood Judgment Opentrue95%257
67On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergencyGood Judgment Opentrue85%235
68Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oilGood Judgment Opentrue0%243
69When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-regionGood Judgment Openfalsenone218
70Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%340
71Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwanGood Judgment Opentrue2%420
72Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021Good Judgment Opentrue93%349
73When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-regionGood Judgment Openfalsenone360
74At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone134
75Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authorityGood Judgment Opentrue4%164
76Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-awsGood Judgment Opentrue4%239
77Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019Good Judgment Opentrue95%227
78How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone973
79Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue233
80Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoirGood Judgment Opentrue3%162
81Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conductGood Judgment Openfalsenone129
82Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022Good Judgment Opentrue99%119
83When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-statesGood Judgment Openfalsenone388
84For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-statesGood Judgment Opentrue12%513
85What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone215
86What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone319
87When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-governmentGood Judgment Openfalsenone329
88Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-chinaGood Judgment Opentrue0%368
89In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutionalGood Judgment Opentrue97%190
90Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021Good Judgment Opentrue2%340
91Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-fromGood Judgment Openfalsenone226
92When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-matchGood Judgment Openfalsenone535
93Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdomGood Judgment Opentrue9%911
94Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%329
95Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-systemGood Judgment Opentrue280
96Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Opentrue534
97When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-dayGood Judgment Openfalsenone675
98In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-systemGood Judgment Opentrue92%183
99In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutionalGood Judgment Opentrue0%299
100Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympicsGood Judgment Opentrue5%490
101How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone440
102When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-packageGood Judgment Openfalsenone186
103How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone276
104Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-serviceGood Judgment Openfalsenone205
105Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spainGood Judgment Openfalsenone233
106Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-batteryGood Judgment Openfalsenone214
107When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-americaGood Judgment Openfalsenone472
108Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-monthGood Judgment Opentrue2%257
109Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-usedGood Judgment Opentrue9%530
110Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-sGood Judgment Openfalsenone185
111How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combinedGood Judgment Openfalsenone176
112How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone165
113How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone907
114Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceledGood Judgment Openfalsenone1111
115Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-lawGood Judgment Opentrue72%206
116Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%855
117How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone234
118How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone233
119Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheelGood Judgment Openfalsenone339
120Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehiclesGood Judgment Opentrue2%163
121What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehiclesGood Judgment Openfalsenone221
122What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevsGood Judgment Openfalsenone331
123Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managersGood Judgment Opentrue1%253
124Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assetsGood Judgment Opentrue2%284