221 KiB
221 KiB
| 1 | Title | URL | Platform | Binary question? | Percentage | # Forecasts | # Forecasters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Will the Universe end? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/ | Metaculus | true | 75% | 546 | |
| 3 | Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 4868 | |
| 4 | Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/ | Metaculus | true | 61% | 779 | |
| 5 | When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 283 | |
| 6 | Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/ | Metaculus | true | 6% | 398 | |
| 7 | The end of the EU as we know it by 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/ | Metaculus | true | 12% | 775 | |
| 8 | Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 887 | |
| 9 | Robocup Challenge | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/ | Metaculus | true | 31% | 295 | |
| 10 | When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/ | Metaculus | false | none | 290 | |
| 11 | When will AIs program programs that can program AIs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/ | Metaculus | false | none | 469 | |
| 12 | When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/ | Metaculus | false | none | 402 | |
| 13 | If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 520 | |
| 14 | If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 106 | |
| 15 | Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/ | Metaculus | true | 39% | 273 | |
| 16 | Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 263 | |
| 17 | With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 246 | |
| 18 | Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 70% | 608 | |
| 19 | Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/ | Metaculus | true | 36% | 269 | |
| 20 | A major United States earthquake by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 496 | |
| 21 | Will humans go extinct by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 632 | |
| 22 | Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 248 | |
| 23 | 2˚C global warming by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 89% | 355 | |
| 24 | World Population in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/ | Metaculus | false | none | 303 | |
| 25 | If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/ | Metaculus | false | none | 79 | |
| 26 | Increased off-world population in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 94% | 438 | |
| 27 | Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 225 | |
| 28 | Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/ | Metaculus | true | 68% | 255 | |
| 29 | How much global warming by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/ | Metaculus | false | none | 447 | |
| 30 | Answer to signal broadcast into space by 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/answer-to-signal-broadcast-into-space-by-2045/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 241 | |
| 31 | Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 349 | |
| 32 | Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 456 | |
| 33 | Will we reach the island of stability by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 45% | 196 | |
| 34 | Kessler syndrome by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 416 | |
| 35 | When will the world create the first Trillionaire? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/ | Metaculus | false | none | 341 | |
| 36 | By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 228 | |
| 37 | Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 359 | |
| 38 | Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 57.99999999999999% | 416 | |
| 39 | When will there be a mile-high building? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/ | Metaculus | false | none | 203 | |
| 40 | Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/ | Metaculus | true | 75% | 270 | |
| 41 | Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 85% | 1032 | |
| 42 | Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 356 | |
| 43 | Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/ | Metaculus | true | 35% | 69 | |
| 44 | Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/ | Metaculus | true | 22% | 334 | |
| 45 | Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/809/will-a-member-of-president-trumps-inner-circle-be-sentenced-to-jail-by-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 90% | 315 | |
| 46 | Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 313 | |
| 47 | Will Metaculus exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 85% | 455 | |
| 48 | Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 231 | |
| 49 | Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 144 | |
| 50 | Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 75% | 224 | |
| 51 | Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 7.000000000000001% | 318 | |
| 52 | When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/ | Metaculus | false | none | 110 | |
| 53 | Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 4% | 197 | |
| 54 | Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/ | Metaculus | true | 19% | 1038 | |
| 55 | Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 28.999999999999996% | 123 | |
| 56 | When will commercial supersonic flight return? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/ | Metaculus | false | none | 261 | |
| 57 | Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 22% | 530 | |
| 58 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 67% | 334 | |
| 59 | Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 90% | 293 | |
| 60 | Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 341 | |
| 61 | Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 54% | 266 | |
| 62 | How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/ | Metaculus | false | none | 196 | |
| 63 | Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 170 | |
| 64 | Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 33 | |
| 65 | Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/ | Metaculus | true | 26% | 211 | |
| 66 | When will the student loan debt bubble "pop"? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/ | Metaculus | false | none | 150 | |
| 67 | When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/ | Metaculus | false | none | 199 | |
| 68 | Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/ | Metaculus | true | 38% | 276 | |
| 69 | Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 189 | |
| 70 | Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 31% | 212 | |
| 71 | Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/ | Metaculus | false | none | 228 | |
| 72 | Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/ | Metaculus | false | none | 249 | |
| 73 | Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/ | Metaculus | false | none | 227 | |
| 74 | Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/ | Metaculus | false | none | 278 | |
| 75 | Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/ | Metaculus | false | none | 230 | |
| 76 | Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/ | Metaculus | false | none | 245 | |
| 77 | Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/ | Metaculus | false | none | 226 | |
| 78 | Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 129 | |
| 79 | Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/ | Metaculus | true | 64% | 234 | |
| 80 | Will AI progress surprise us? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/ | Metaculus | true | 75% | 455 | |
| 81 | Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/ | Metaculus | true | 75% | 131 | |
| 82 | Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 190 | |
| 83 | When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/ | Metaculus | false | none | 138 | |
| 84 | When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/ | Metaculus | false | none | 171 | |
| 85 | Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 439 | |
| 86 | Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 179 | |
| 87 | When will India send their first own astronauts to space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/ | Metaculus | false | none | 211 | |
| 88 | When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/ | Metaculus | false | none | 116 | |
| 89 | Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 170 | |
| 90 | A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/ | Metaculus | false | none | 146 | |
| 91 | Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/ | Metaculus | true | 3% | 271 | |
| 92 | Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/ | Metaculus | true | 88% | 272 | |
| 93 | Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 53% | 196 | |
| 94 | Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 284 | |
| 95 | Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's "Dark Was the Night" on Voyager I's Golden Record? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/ | Metaculus | true | 4% | 169 | |
| 96 | When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/ | Metaculus | false | none | 119 | |
| 97 | What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 258 | |
| 98 | What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 86 | |
| 99 | Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 222 | |
| 100 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/ | Metaculus | true | 27% | 176 | |
| 101 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/ | Metaculus | true | 23% | 237 | |
| 102 | Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 53 | |
| 103 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/ | Metaculus | true | 10% | 273 | |
| 104 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/ | Metaculus | true | 3% | 128 | |
| 105 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/ | Metaculus | true | 24% | 175 | |
| 106 | How many NASA "space launch system" (SLS) launches before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 174 | |
| 107 | Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 131 | |
| 108 | Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 8% | 395 | |
| 109 | When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/ | Metaculus | false | none | 253 | |
| 110 | Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 63 | |
| 111 | Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 73 | |
| 112 | When will the first cloned human be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/ | Metaculus | false | none | 138 | |
| 113 | Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/ | Metaculus | true | 76% | 100 | |
| 114 | 3.6°C global warming by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 31% | 124 | |
| 115 | Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/ | Metaculus | false | none | 173 | |
| 116 | The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 49% | 122 | |
| 117 | Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 55.00000000000001% | 151 | |
| 118 | What will the World's GDP be in 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/ | Metaculus | false | none | 127 | |
| 119 | Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 23% | 177 | |
| 120 | Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/ | Metaculus | true | 88% | 389 | |
| 121 | When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/ | Metaculus | false | none | 116 | |
| 122 | Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 143 | |
| 123 | Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 78% | 102 | |
| 124 | What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/ | Metaculus | false | none | 133 | |
| 125 | Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 375 | |
| 126 | The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/ | Metaculus | false | none | 124 | |
| 127 | Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 139 | |
| 128 | Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/ | Metaculus | true | 42% | 116 | |
| 129 | When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/ | Metaculus | false | none | 122 | |
| 130 | What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/ | Metaculus | false | none | 69 | |
| 131 | Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 57.99999999999999% | 169 | |
| 132 | Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 175 | |
| 133 | By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 160 | |
| 134 | Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/ | Metaculus | true | 8% | 221 | |
| 135 | What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/ | Metaculus | false | none | 161 | |
| 136 | Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 238 | |
| 137 | What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/ | Metaculus | false | none | 76 | |
| 138 | Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 90% | 215 | |
| 139 | Will US income inequality increase by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 48% | 207 | |
| 140 | When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/ | Metaculus | false | none | 181 | |
| 141 | Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 218 | |
| 142 | Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 26% | 215 | |
| 143 | Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 37% | 254 | |
| 144 | Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 99% | 368 | |
| 145 | Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 16% | 65 | |
| 146 | Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 225 | |
| 147 | Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 80% | 47 | |
| 148 | What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/ | Metaculus | false | none | 113 | |
| 149 | Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 148 | |
| 150 | A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/ | Metaculus | true | 99% | 277 | |
| 151 | Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 113 | |
| 152 | When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/ | Metaculus | false | none | 110 | |
| 153 | When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/ | Metaculus | false | none | 105 | |
| 154 | When will the 10,000th human reach space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/ | Metaculus | false | none | 140 | |
| 155 | Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 210 | |
| 156 | Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/ | Metaculus | true | 70% | 171 | |
| 157 | When will Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo be released from prison? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1667/when-will-reuters-journalists-wa-lone-and-kyaw-soe-oo-be-released-from-prison/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 158 | If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/ | Metaculus | true | 90% | 154 | |
| 159 | Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/ | Metaculus | true | 70% | 301 | |
| 160 | When will PHP die? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/ | Metaculus | false | none | 91 | |
| 161 | Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 330 | |
| 162 | Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ | Metaculus | true | 66% | 148 | |
| 163 | Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 105 | |
| 164 | Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 138 | |
| 165 | When will the first human be born on another world? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/ | Metaculus | false | none | 131 | |
| 166 | Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 546 | |
| 167 | When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/ | Metaculus | false | none | 121 | |
| 168 | Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 169 | |
| 169 | What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 165 | |
| 170 | When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/ | Metaculus | false | none | 133 | |
| 171 | When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/ | Metaculus | false | none | 76 | |
| 172 | Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 535 | |
| 173 | Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/ | Metaculus | true | 45% | 66 | |
| 174 | When will India become a World Bank high-income country? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/ | Metaculus | false | none | 145 | |
| 175 | When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2585/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-25-trillion/ | Metaculus | false | none | 302 | |
| 176 | When will we have micropayments? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/ | Metaculus | false | none | 74 | |
| 177 | When will North Korea have a McDonald's? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/ | Metaculus | false | none | 105 | |
| 178 | Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 49 | |
| 179 | Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 196 | |
| 180 | Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 165 | |
| 181 | Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 44 | |
| 182 | Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 36% | 129 | |
| 183 | Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 19% | 191 | |
| 184 | When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/ | Metaculus | false | none | 88 | |
| 185 | Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 261 | |
| 186 | What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 116 | |
| 187 | Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 129 | |
| 188 | When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 286 | |
| 189 | When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/ | Metaculus | false | none | 136 | |
| 190 | When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/ | Metaculus | false | none | 147 | |
| 191 | A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/a-tech-boom-to-surpass-the-dotcom-bubble-for-one-quarter-or-more-by-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 70% | 266 | |
| 192 | What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/ | Metaculus | false | none | 190 | |
| 193 | Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 99 | |
| 194 | Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 61% | 87 | |
| 195 | Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 81 | |
| 196 | Will World GDP grow every year until 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 711 | |
| 197 | Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 18% | 742 | |
| 198 | Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 17% | 144 | |
| 199 | Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/ | Metaculus | true | 75% | 151 | |
| 200 | Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 194 | |
| 201 | Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/ | Metaculus | true | 32% | 83 | |
| 202 | Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 112 | |
| 203 | Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 7.000000000000001% | 96 | |
| 204 | When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/ | Metaculus | false | none | 69 | |
| 205 | How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/ | Metaculus | false | none | 27 | |
| 206 | Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 192 | |
| 207 | How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 208 | |
| 208 | At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/ | Metaculus | true | 80% | 148 | |
| 209 | By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 114 | |
| 210 | Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 4% | 170 | |
| 211 | Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 94% | 214 | |
| 212 | When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/ | Metaculus | false | none | 104 | |
| 213 | Is the Collatz Conjecture true? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/ | Metaculus | true | 92% | 142 | |
| 214 | Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/ | Metaculus | true | 92% | 77 | |
| 215 | If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/ | Metaculus | false | none | 137 | |
| 216 | When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/ | Metaculus | false | none | 54 | |
| 217 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 11% | 334 | |
| 218 | If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/ | Metaculus | false | none | 107 | |
| 219 | When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/ | Metaculus | false | none | 127 | |
| 220 | In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 135 | |
| 221 | When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/ | Metaculus | false | none | 110 | |
| 222 | If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/ | Metaculus | false | none | 71 | |
| 223 | If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/ | Metaculus | false | none | 96 | |
| 224 | Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/ | Metaculus | true | 9% | 134 | |
| 225 | When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/ | Metaculus | true | 39% | 76 | |
| 226 | Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 45% | 91 | |
| 227 | How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/ | Metaculus | false | none | 47 | |
| 228 | When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/ | Metaculus | false | none | 91 | |
| 229 | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/ | Metaculus | false | none | 171 | |
| 230 | How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/ | Metaculus | false | none | 129 | |
| 231 | When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/ | Metaculus | false | none | 175 | |
| 232 | In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/ | Metaculus | false | none | 141 | |
| 233 | When will an AI pass the laugh test? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/ | Metaculus | false | none | 93 | |
| 234 | Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 47 | |
| 235 | If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/ | Metaculus | false | none | 61 | |
| 236 | When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/ | Metaculus | false | none | 79 | |
| 237 | When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3040/when-will-the-odds-ratio-of-metaculus-community-prediction-of-the-chance-of-ai-catastrophe-by-2100-either-half-or-double-from-its-value-on-2019-08-21/ | Metaculus | false | none | 54 | |
| 238 | Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 43% | 65 | |
| 239 | When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/ | Metaculus | false | none | 119 | |
| 240 | When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/ | Metaculus | false | none | 97 | |
| 241 | How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 79 | |
| 242 | When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/ | Metaculus | false | none | 58 | |
| 243 | When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/ | Metaculus | false | none | 178 | |
| 244 | When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/ | Metaculus | false | none | 119 | |
| 245 | How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/ | Metaculus | false | none | 108 | |
| 246 | How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/ | Metaculus | false | none | 94 | |
| 247 | How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/ | Metaculus | false | none | 80 | |
| 248 | How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/ | Metaculus | false | none | 173 | |
| 249 | When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ | Metaculus | false | none | 100 | |
| 250 | What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/ | Metaculus | false | none | 209 | |
| 251 | When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ | Metaculus | false | none | 65 | |
| 252 | When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ | Metaculus | false | none | 99 | |
| 253 | When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ | Metaculus | false | none | 114 | |
| 254 | What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/ | Metaculus | false | none | 121 | |
| 255 | What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/ | Metaculus | false | none | 51 | |
| 256 | What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/ | Metaculus | false | none | 83 | |
| 257 | What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/ | Metaculus | false | none | 84 | |
| 258 | When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 80 | |
| 259 | How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/ | Metaculus | false | none | 84 | |
| 260 | How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/ | Metaculus | false | none | 130 | |
| 261 | Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 125 | |
| 262 | Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/ | Metaculus | true | 35% | 211 | |
| 263 | How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/ | Metaculus | false | none | 126 | |
| 264 | How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/ | Metaculus | false | none | 139 | |
| 265 | Will a new land speed record be set by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 79% | 138 | |
| 266 | How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/ | Metaculus | false | none | 71 | |
| 267 | When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/ | Metaculus | false | none | 104 | |
| 268 | Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 91 | |
| 269 | Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/ | Metaculus | true | 55.00000000000001% | 44 | |
| 270 | Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/ | Metaculus | true | 10% | 83 | |
| 271 | When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/ | Metaculus | false | none | 68 | |
| 272 | How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 118 | |
| 273 | When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/ | Metaculus | false | none | 83 | |
| 274 | When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/ | Metaculus | false | none | 206 | |
| 275 | By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/ | Metaculus | false | none | 214 | |
| 276 | What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 77 | |
| 277 | Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 79% | 171 | |
| 278 | How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/ | Metaculus | false | none | 122 | |
| 279 | If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 62 | |
| 280 | If there is a no-deal Brexit, what will be the average yearly % GDP growth of the UK in the subsequent five years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3156/if-there-is-a-no-deal-brexit-what-will-be-the-average-yearly--gdp-growth-of-the-uk-in-the-subsequent-five-years/ | Metaculus | false | none | 33 | |
| 281 | Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/ | Metaculus | true | 70% | 115 | |
| 282 | Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 67% | 371 | |
| 283 | What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 73 | |
| 284 | When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ | Metaculus | false | none | 76 | |
| 285 | If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/ | Metaculus | false | none | 83 | |
| 286 | When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ | Metaculus | false | none | 68 | |
| 287 | What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/ | Metaculus | false | none | 89 | |
| 288 | Who will first land a person on Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/ | Metaculus | false | none | 221 | |
| 289 | What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/ | Metaculus | false | none | 75 | |
| 290 | Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 80% | 174 | |
| 291 | When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/ | Metaculus | false | none | 87 | |
| 292 | Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 65 | |
| 293 | Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/ | Metaculus | true | 53% | 84 | |
| 294 | What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 124 | |
| 295 | In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/ | Metaculus | false | none | 81 | |
| 296 | How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/ | Metaculus | false | none | 141 | |
| 297 | How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/ | Metaculus | false | none | 118 | |
| 298 | Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 122 | |
| 299 | Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3252/will-the-brexit-party-win-any-seats-at-the-next-uk-general-election/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 125 | |
| 300 | When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/ | Metaculus | false | none | 173 | |
| 301 | When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/ | Metaculus | false | none | 140 | |
| 302 | When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/ | Metaculus | false | none | 87 | |
| 303 | What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 26 | |
| 304 | How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/ | Metaculus | false | none | 116 | |
| 305 | What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/ | Metaculus | false | none | 72 | |
| 306 | How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/ | Metaculus | false | none | 58 | |
| 307 | How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/ | Metaculus | false | none | 87 | |
| 308 | When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/ | Metaculus | false | none | 86 | |
| 309 | If Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US at the end of his term? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3328/if-sanders-becomes-president-in-2020-how-many-unsheltered-homeless-people-will-there-be-in-the-us-at-the-end-of-his-term/ | Metaculus | false | none | 97 | |
| 310 | Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 62 | |
| 311 | When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/ | Metaculus | false | none | 96 | |
| 312 | Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 66 | |
| 313 | When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/ | Metaculus | false | none | 58 | |
| 314 | When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/ | Metaculus | false | none | 73 | |
| 315 | What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/ | Metaculus | false | none | 186 | |
| 316 | When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/ | Metaculus | false | none | 179 | |
| 317 | If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/ | Metaculus | false | none | 11 | |
| 318 | If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/ | Metaculus | false | none | 161 | |
| 319 | How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/ | Metaculus | false | none | 101 | |
| 320 | What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/ | Metaculus | false | none | 105 | |
| 321 | What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 120 | |
| 322 | Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 57 | |
| 323 | When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/ | Metaculus | false | none | 92 | |
| 324 | What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/ | Metaculus | false | none | 110 | |
| 325 | Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/ | Metaculus | true | 12% | 200 | |
| 326 | Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/ | Metaculus | true | 79% | 215 | |
| 327 | Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/ | Metaculus | true | 49% | 38 | |
| 328 | Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 50 | |
| 329 | What will SpaceX be worth by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 356 | |
| 330 | By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 65 | |
| 331 | How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3373/how-many-countries-will-be-awarded-a-b-or-better-for-farm-animal-welfare-protection-by-to-the-animal-protection-index-by-end-of-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 23 | |
| 332 | Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3374/will-the-either-the-usa-or-china-improve-on-their-score-on-an-the-animal-protection-index-indicator-for-recognition-of-animal-sentience-by-the-end-2022/ | Metaculus | true | 34% | 28 | |
| 333 | When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/ | Metaculus | false | none | 76 | |
| 334 | When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 85 | |
| 335 | When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/ | Metaculus | false | none | 71 | |
| 336 | What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/ | Metaculus | false | none | 86 | |
| 337 | What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 170 | |
| 338 | Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 74% | 216 | |
| 339 | Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/ | Metaculus | true | 22% | 63 | |
| 340 | What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/ | Metaculus | false | none | 205 | |
| 341 | What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/ | Metaculus | false | none | 42 | |
| 342 | Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/ | Metaculus | true | 35% | 143 | |
| 343 | Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 164 | |
| 344 | When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/ | Metaculus | false | none | 91 | |
| 345 | Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/ | Metaculus | true | 11% | 82 | |
| 346 | Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/ | Metaculus | true | 8% | 79 | |
| 347 | How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 89 | |
| 348 | Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 287 | |
| 349 | Will the next President of the United States be impeached? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 140 | |
| 350 | In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/ | Metaculus | false | none | 55 | |
| 351 | On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/ | Metaculus | false | none | 116 | |
| 352 | Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 70 | |
| 353 | Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 95 | |
| 354 | Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 21% | 94 | |
| 355 | Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/ | Metaculus | true | 54% | 274 | |
| 356 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/ | Metaculus | true | 90% | 1187 | |
| 357 | When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/ | Metaculus | false | none | 70 | |
| 358 | How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/ | Metaculus | false | none | 145 | |
| 359 | What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/ | Metaculus | false | none | 70 | |
| 360 | Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 68% | 124 | |
| 361 | Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 88% | 120 | |
| 362 | At what point will at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" be released to the public? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/ | Metaculus | false | none | 72 | |
| 363 | Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 3% | 125 | |
| 364 | When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/ | Metaculus | false | none | 297 | |
| 365 | If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/ | Metaculus | true | 77% | 101 | |
| 366 | How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 90 | |
| 367 | When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/ | Metaculus | false | none | 382 | |
| 368 | Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/ | Metaculus | true | 91% | 286 | |
| 369 | Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 45 | |
| 370 | When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/ | Metaculus | false | none | 64 | |
| 371 | When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/ | Metaculus | false | none | 139 | |
| 372 | Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/ | Metaculus | true | 8% | 154 | |
| 373 | When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/ | Metaculus | false | none | 39 | |
| 374 | One Million Martian Residents by 2075? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 286 | |
| 375 | What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ | Metaculus | false | none | 117 | |
| 376 | What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ | Metaculus | false | none | 117 | |
| 377 | When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/ | Metaculus | false | none | 89 | |
| 378 | Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 10% | 38 | |
| 379 | Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 79 | |
| 380 | How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/ | Metaculus | false | none | 77 | |
| 381 | How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ | Metaculus | false | none | 115 | |
| 382 | What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ | Metaculus | false | none | 102 | |
| 383 | What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/what-will-the-average-growth-rate-be-of-total-renewable-energy-produced-worldwide-over-the-2020-to-2022-period/ | Metaculus | false | none | 128 | |
| 384 | Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/ | Metaculus | true | 2% | 117 | |
| 385 | When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/ | Metaculus | false | none | 52 | |
| 386 | When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/ | Metaculus | false | none | 70 | |
| 387 | Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 11% | 99 | |
| 388 | Will Iowa host another "first in the nation" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/ | Metaculus | true | 62% | 90 | |
| 389 | Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/ | Metaculus | true | 19% | 119 | |
| 390 | Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/ | Metaculus | true | 10% | 107 | |
| 391 | Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/ | Metaculus | true | 90% | 71 | |
| 392 | Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 56.99999999999999% | 227 | |
| 393 | Will the US supreme court change size by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 49% | 191 | |
| 394 | When will the United States admit a new state? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/ | Metaculus | false | none | 133 | |
| 395 | How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/ | Metaculus | false | none | 54 | |
| 396 | Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 18% | 213 | |
| 397 | Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 55.00000000000001% | 83 | |
| 398 | What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/ | Metaculus | false | none | 214 | |
| 399 | When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/ | Metaculus | false | none | 85 | |
| 400 | What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 111 | |
| 401 | Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 26% | 140 | |
| 402 | Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 80% | 197 | |
| 403 | Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/ | Metaculus | true | 10% | 72 | |
| 404 | Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 81 | |
| 405 | Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 238 | |
| 406 | How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ | Metaculus | false | none | 163 | |
| 407 | How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ | Metaculus | false | none | 143 | |
| 408 | Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/ | Metaculus | true | 88% | 203 | |
| 409 | If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/ | Metaculus | true | 55.00000000000001% | 57 | |
| 410 | When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/ | Metaculus | false | none | 112 | |
| 411 | Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/ | Metaculus | true | 71% | 45 | |
| 412 | Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3671/will-it-turn-out-that-bloomberg-manipulated-2020-election-prediction-markets/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 159 | |
| 413 | How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/ | Metaculus | false | none | 105 | |
| 414 | Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 2231 | |
| 415 | Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 388 | |
| 416 | Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 67 | |
| 417 | When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/ | Metaculus | false | none | 85 | |
| 418 | When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/ | Metaculus | false | none | 65 | |
| 419 | What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/ | Metaculus | false | none | 106 | |
| 420 | What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/ | Metaculus | false | none | 61 | |
| 421 | Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/ | Metaculus | true | 56.00000000000001% | 356 | |
| 422 | How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on April the 27th? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3718/how-many-covid-2019-cases-will-be-confirmed-in-the-location-with-the-most-cases-outside-of-mainland-china-on-april-the-27th/ | Metaculus | false | none | 15 | |
| 423 | When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/ | Metaculus | false | none | 28 | |
| 424 | When will a fusion reactor reach ignition? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/ | Metaculus | false | none | 42 | |
| 425 | When will space mining be profitable? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/ | Metaculus | false | none | 76 | |
| 426 | When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/ | Metaculus | false | none | 154 | |
| 427 | How many communist states will there be in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/ | Metaculus | false | none | 137 | |
| 428 | Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 96 | |
| 429 | Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/ | Metaculus | true | 52% | 98 | |
| 430 | Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/ | Metaculus | true | 34% | 50 | |
| 431 | When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/ | Metaculus | false | none | 55 | |
| 432 | Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 27% | 70 | |
| 433 | When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3764/when-will-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-set-a-new-all-time-record-high-close-after-the-coronavirus-crash-of-february-2020/ | Metaculus | false | none | 766 | |
| 434 | How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 548 | |
| 435 | When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/ | Metaculus | false | none | 137 | |
| 436 | Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/ | Metaculus | true | 85% | 91 | |
| 437 | Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 64 | |
| 438 | Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/ | Metaculus | true | 48% | 42 | |
| 439 | What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3786/what-will-be-the-lowest-closing-value-for-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-it-reaches-a-new-all-time-record-high-close/ | Metaculus | false | none | 567 | |
| 440 | Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 81 | |
| 441 | If Bernie Sanders becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3805/if-bernie-sanders-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/ | Metaculus | false | none | 55 | |
| 442 | If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/ | Metaculus | false | none | 149 | |
| 443 | Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 113 | |
| 444 | When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/ | Metaculus | false | none | 222 | |
| 445 | Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 653 | |
| 446 | Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 6% | 268 | |
| 447 | When will the next Qatari general election be held? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/ | Metaculus | false | none | 50 | |
| 448 | What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/ | Metaculus | false | none | 50 | |
| 449 | Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 12% | 121 | |
| 450 | When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/ | Metaculus | false | none | 60 | |
| 451 | Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 79 | |
| 452 | Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 39% | 126 | |
| 453 | Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/ | Metaculus | false | none | 189 | |
| 454 | When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/ | Metaculus | false | none | 70 | |
| 455 | If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/ | Metaculus | false | none | 65 | |
| 456 | If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/ | Metaculus | false | none | 44 | |
| 457 | Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 162 | |
| 458 | When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/ | Metaculus | false | none | 69 | |
| 459 | When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/ | Metaculus | false | none | 92 | |
| 460 | How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 252 | |
| 461 | When will China legalise same-sex marriage? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/ | Metaculus | false | none | 54 | |
| 462 | When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/ | Metaculus | false | none | 42 | |
| 463 | What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/ | Metaculus | false | none | 494 | |
| 464 | What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/ | Metaculus | false | none | 82 | |
| 465 | Will the next US recession turn into a depression? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/ | Metaculus | true | 7.000000000000001% | 330 | |
| 466 | When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/ | Metaculus | false | none | 163 | |
| 467 | What will unemployment be in the US in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 332 | |
| 468 | What will inflation be in the US in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 127 | |
| 469 | By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 127 | |
| 470 | Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 2% | 108 | |
| 471 | Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/ | Metaculus | true | 85% | 141 | |
| 472 | When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/ | Metaculus | false | none | 274 | |
| 473 | How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 107 | |
| 474 | What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/ | Metaculus | false | none | 64 | |
| 475 | Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 52% | 50 | |
| 476 | If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/ | Metaculus | false | none | 55 | |
| 477 | What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 204 | |
| 478 | Will the first AGI be based on deep learning? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 71 | |
| 479 | What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 78 | |
| 480 | Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 52 | |
| 481 | When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4066/10m-are-administered-an-efficacious-vaccine/ | Metaculus | false | none | 1513 | |
| 482 | What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/ | Metaculus | false | none | 136 | |
| 483 | How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/ | Metaculus | false | none | 71 | |
| 484 | If Donald Trump is reelected president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4101/if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/ | Metaculus | false | none | 86 | |
| 485 | Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/ | Metaculus | false | none | 69 | |
| 486 | Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 108 | |
| 487 | Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 4% | 130 | |
| 488 | After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/ | Metaculus | false | none | 132 | |
| 489 | What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/ | Metaculus | false | none | 34 | |
| 490 | Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 417 | |
| 491 | What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/ | Metaculus | false | none | 23 | |
| 492 | When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/ | Metaculus | false | none | 60 | |
| 493 | What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/ | Metaculus | false | none | 70 | |
| 494 | Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 28 | |
| 495 | Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 164 | |
| 496 | When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/ | Metaculus | false | none | 32 | |
| 497 | Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 26% | 58 | |
| 498 | How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 499 | When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/ | Metaculus | false | none | 70 | |
| 500 | When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/ | Metaculus | false | none | 91 | |
| 501 | When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/ | Metaculus | false | none | 62 | |
| 502 | How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/ | Metaculus | false | none | 60 | |
| 503 | How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/ | Metaculus | false | none | 109 | |
| 504 | Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 26% | 33 | |
| 505 | Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/ | Metaculus | false | none | 55 | |
| 506 | Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 22 | |
| 507 | How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/ | Metaculus | false | none | 76 | |
| 508 | What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/ | Metaculus | false | none | 44 | |
| 509 | If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 59 | |
| 510 | Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 27 | |
| 511 | When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 512 | When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/ | Metaculus | false | none | 102 | |
| 513 | What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 111 | |
| 514 | Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/ | Metaculus | true | 71% | 83 | |
| 515 | What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/ | Metaculus | false | none | 60 | |
| 516 | By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/ | Metaculus | true | 35% | 62 | |
| 517 | If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 35% | 40 | |
| 518 | When will North Korea become a democracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/ | Metaculus | false | none | 62 | |
| 519 | What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/ | Metaculus | false | none | 19 | |
| 520 | When will be the next "Great Power" war? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/ | Metaculus | false | none | 102 | |
| 521 | What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/ | Metaculus | false | none | 76 | |
| 522 | When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/ | Metaculus | false | none | 121 | |
| 523 | What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 37 | |
| 524 | When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/ | Metaculus | false | none | 46 | |
| 525 | When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/ | Metaculus | false | none | 61 | |
| 526 | Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 7.000000000000001% | 84 | |
| 527 | If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/ | Metaculus | false | none | 90 | |
| 528 | When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/ | Metaculus | false | none | 57 | |
| 529 | What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 34 | |
| 530 | How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/ | Metaculus | false | none | 129 | |
| 531 | How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 532 | When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/ | Metaculus | false | none | 58 | |
| 533 | Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 40 | |
| 534 | Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 100 | |
| 535 | Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/ | Metaculus | true | 62% | 34 | |
| 536 | Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 10% | 29 | |
| 537 | When will a technology replace screens? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/ | Metaculus | false | none | 91 | |
| 538 | What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/ | Metaculus | false | none | 21 | |
| 539 | What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/ | Metaculus | false | none | 94 | |
| 540 | If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 33 | |
| 541 | When will Croatia adopt the euro? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/ | Metaculus | false | none | 72 | |
| 542 | When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/ | Metaculus | false | none | 123 | |
| 543 | When will we have a new Pope? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/ | Metaculus | false | none | 75 | |
| 544 | In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/ | Metaculus | false | none | 26 | |
| 545 | When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/ | Metaculus | false | none | 41 | |
| 546 | What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/ | Metaculus | false | none | 112 | |
| 547 | Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/ | Metaculus | true | 13% | 95 | |
| 548 | Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 39 | |
| 549 | Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 48 | |
| 550 | Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 144 | |
| 551 | If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/ | Metaculus | false | none | 38 | |
| 552 | If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/ | Metaculus | false | none | 37 | |
| 553 | What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 98 | |
| 554 | When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/ | Metaculus | false | none | 147 | |
| 555 | Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/ | Metaculus | true | 31% | 32 | |
| 556 | When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/ | Metaculus | false | none | 23 | |
| 557 | In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/ | Metaculus | true | 67% | 21 | |
| 558 | Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 3% | 85 | |
| 559 | When will the population size of India surpass the population size of China? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4680/when-will-the-population-size-of-india-surpass-the-population-size-of-china/ | Metaculus | false | none | 165 | |
| 560 | What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Donald Trump is reelected president? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/ | Metaculus | false | none | 88 | |
| 561 | When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/ | Metaculus | false | none | 60 | |
| 562 | What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/ | Metaculus | false | none | 109 | |
| 563 | What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/ | Metaculus | false | none | 11 | |
| 564 | What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 45 | |
| 565 | When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/ | Metaculus | false | none | 63 | |
| 566 | When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4721/when-will-us-auto-manufacturing-recover-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-production-levels/ | Metaculus | false | none | 52 | |
| 567 | Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4736/will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year/ | Metaculus | true | 49% | 464 | |
| 568 | When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/ | Metaculus | false | none | 214 | |
| 569 | Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/ | Metaculus | true | 55.00000000000001% | 240 | |
| 570 | Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 132 | |
| 571 | Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 15 | |
| 572 | Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 2% | 60 | |
| 573 | Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 2% | 1106 | |
| 574 | Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 92% | 104 | |
| 575 | Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4775/will-richard-spencer-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 177 | |
| 576 | Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4776/will-charles-murray-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 136 | |
| 577 | Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 80 | |
| 578 | While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/ | Metaculus | false | none | 23 | |
| 579 | If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4783/if-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-mentioning-slate-star-codex-or-scott-alexander-by-july-2021-will-it-include-his-full-name/ | Metaculus | true | 56.99999999999999% | 252 | |
| 580 | Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4784/will-james-lindsay-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 123 | |
| 581 | What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/ | Metaculus | false | none | 35 | |
| 582 | Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/ | Metaculus | true | 70% | 71 | |
| 583 | When will a universal flu vaccine be available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/ | Metaculus | false | none | 51 | |
| 584 | What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/ | Metaculus | false | none | 36 | |
| 585 | How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/ | Metaculus | false | none | 25 | |
| 586 | What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 50 | |
| 587 | When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/ | Metaculus | false | none | 86 | |
| 588 | How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/ | Metaculus | false | none | 100 | |
| 589 | As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/ | Metaculus | false | none | 109 | |
| 590 | Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/ | Metaculus | true | 71% | 447 | |
| 591 | Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/ | Metaculus | true | 74% | 116 | |
| 592 | Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/ | Metaculus | true | 66% | 30 | |
| 593 | What will the global fertility rate be in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/ | Metaculus | false | none | 23 | |
| 594 | When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/ | Metaculus | false | none | 196 | |
| 595 | When will the VIX index fall below 20? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/ | Metaculus | false | none | 196 | |
| 596 | When will the VIX index climb above 50? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/ | Metaculus | false | none | 74 | |
| 597 | Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/ | Metaculus | true | 70% | 92 | |
| 598 | When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/ | Metaculus | false | none | 51 | |
| 599 | When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/ | Metaculus | false | none | 35 | |
| 600 | When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/ | Metaculus | false | none | 31 | |
| 601 | In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/ | Metaculus | false | none | 33 | |
| 602 | Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/ | Metaculus | true | 27% | 49 | |
| 603 | When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/ | Metaculus | false | none | 84 | |
| 604 | What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 74 | |
| 605 | How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/ | Metaculus | false | none | 312 | |
| 606 | What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 55 | |
| 607 | What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 42 | |
| 608 | What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 59 | |
| 609 | What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 16 | |
| 610 | Will Climeworks still exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 36 | |
| 611 | Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 21% | 50 | |
| 612 | Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 33 | |
| 613 | Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 25 | |
| 614 | Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 46 | |
| 615 | Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 46 | |
| 616 | Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 49% | 40 | |
| 617 | When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/ | Metaculus | false | none | 86 | |
| 618 | When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/ | Metaculus | false | none | 82 | |
| 619 | Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/ | Metaculus | true | 9% | 47 | |
| 620 | Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 31 | |
| 621 | Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 66% | 32 | |
| 622 | Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050. | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 34 | |
| 623 | How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/ | Metaculus | false | none | 63 | |
| 624 | What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 41 | |
| 625 | Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 7.000000000000001% | 457 | |
| 626 | What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 43 | |
| 627 | Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4910/will-any-state-send-multiple-certificates-of-electors-following-the-2020-election/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 219 | |
| 628 | When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/ | Metaculus | false | none | 113 | |
| 629 | How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 22 | |
| 630 | Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 97% | 993 | |
| 631 | Who will win the 'worm wars'? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/ | Metaculus | true | 73% | 56 | |
| 632 | How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4920/how-many-charities-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-launch-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 25 | |
| 633 | When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/ | Metaculus | false | none | 68 | |
| 634 | Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/ | Metaculus | true | 6% | 134 | |
| 635 | Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/ | Metaculus | true | 14.000000000000002% | 132 | |
| 636 | Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 34% | 39 | |
| 637 | What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range] | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/ | Metaculus | false | none | 60 | |
| 638 | When will the Woke index in US elite media top? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/ | Metaculus | false | none | 20 | |
| 639 | When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/ | Metaculus | false | none | 43 | |
| 640 | Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/ | Metaculus | true | 8% | 37 | |
| 641 | Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/ | Metaculus | true | 4% | 209 | |
| 642 | [Metaculus] When will the feature to share private questions go live? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4947/metaculus-when-will-the-feature-to-share-private-questions-go-live/ | Metaculus | false | none | 51 | |
| 643 | What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/ | Metaculus | false | none | 34 | |
| 644 | When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4950/when-will-traviswfisher-be-unseated-on-the-metaculus-leaderboard/ | Metaculus | false | none | 154 | |
| 645 | How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/ | Metaculus | false | none | 44 | |
| 646 | Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 107 | |
| 647 | When will the first baby be born away from Earth? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/ | Metaculus | false | none | 53 | |
| 648 | When will One Piece end? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/ | Metaculus | false | none | 24 | |
| 649 | When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/ | Metaculus | false | none | 98 | |
| 650 | What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 44 | |
| 651 | What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 62 | |
| 652 | Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/ | Metaculus | true | 16% | 31 | |
| 653 | What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ | Metaculus | false | none | 19 | |
| 654 | 13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/ | Metaculus | false | none | 18 | |
| 655 | What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/ | Metaculus | false | none | 51 | |
| 656 | What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ | Metaculus | false | none | 34 | |
| 657 | On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/ | Metaculus | false | none | 37 | |
| 658 | What day will Solar Cycle 25 end? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/ | Metaculus | false | none | 35 | |
| 659 | Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 17 | |
| 660 | What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ | Metaculus | false | none | 41 | |
| 661 | When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/ | Metaculus | false | none | 20 | |
| 662 | Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 52 | |
| 663 | What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 26 | |
| 664 | How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 42 | |
| 665 | Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/ | Metaculus | true | 64% | 89 | |
| 666 | Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5034/will-a-high-profile-criminal-investigation-take-down-a-hidden-website-on-the-tor-network-during-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 45% | 63 | |
| 667 | When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/ | Metaculus | false | none | 149 | |
| 668 | Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 8% | 41 | |
| 669 | What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/ | Metaculus | false | none | 14 | |
| 670 | Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 4% | 88 | |
| 671 | If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 10% | 338 | |
| 672 | When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5050/when-will-the-first-macs-with-apple-silicon-ship/ | Metaculus | false | none | 125 | |
| 673 | Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/ | Metaculus | true | 2% | 159 | |
| 674 | Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/ | Metaculus | true | 68% | 160 | |
| 675 | What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/ | Metaculus | false | none | 18 | |
| 676 | Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 45% | 154 | |
| 677 | If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/ | Metaculus | true | 27% | 36 | |
| 678 | When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization] | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/ | Metaculus | false | none | 130 | |
| 679 | If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 115 | |
| 680 | If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 123 | |
| 681 | Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 75% | 80 | |
| 682 | Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/ | Metaculus | true | 16% | 395 | |
| 683 | What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/ | Metaculus | false | none | 43 | |
| 684 | Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 57 | |
| 685 | Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/ | Metaculus | true | 76% | 28 | |
| 686 | Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 63 | |
| 687 | If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 35% | 195 | |
| 688 | When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/ | Metaculus | true | 35% | 45 | |
| 689 | Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 274 | |
| 690 | When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/ | Metaculus | false | none | 43 | |
| 691 | When will Amazon deliver some products by drone? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/ | Metaculus | false | none | 54 | |
| 692 | When will the first human head transplant occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/ | Metaculus | false | none | 23 | |
| 693 | Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 81 | |
| 694 | Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 25 | |
| 695 | How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/ | Metaculus | false | none | 55 | |
| 696 | Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5219/rushton-paper-retracted-before-2022/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 26 | |
| 697 | [Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/ | Metaculus | false | none | 52 | |
| 698 | Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/ | Metaculus | false | none | 72 | |
| 699 | How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/ | Metaculus | false | none | 73 | |
| 700 | Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/ | Metaculus | true | 11% | 68 | |
| 701 | Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 39% | 221 | |
| 702 | Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/ | Metaculus | true | 2% | 189 | |
| 703 | Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5260/humans-on-the-2022-ikea-catalogue-cover/ | Metaculus | true | 62% | 44 | |
| 704 | What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/ | Metaculus | false | none | 33 | |
| 705 | Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 21% | 27 | |
| 706 | When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/ | Metaculus | false | none | 56 | |
| 707 | How big will be the first crew sent to Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/ | Metaculus | false | none | 74 | |
| 708 | When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/ | Metaculus | false | none | 65 | |
| 709 | What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/ | Metaculus | false | none | 26 | |
| 710 | What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 711 | When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/ | Metaculus | false | none | 87 | |
| 712 | When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/ | Metaculus | false | none | 97 | |
| 713 | When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/ | Metaculus | false | none | 44 | |
| 714 | If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/ | Metaculus | true | 53% | 61 | |
| 715 | Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 46 | |
| 716 | Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/ | Metaculus | true | 35% | 52 | |
| 717 | Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ | Metaculus | true | 44% | 91 | |
| 718 | Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ | Metaculus | true | 37% | 54 | |
| 719 | Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 33 | |
| 720 | Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 80 | |
| 721 | Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 49 | |
| 722 | Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 59 | |
| 723 | How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/ | Metaculus | false | none | 47 | |
| 724 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/ | Metaculus | true | 17% | 207 | |
| 725 | What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/ | Metaculus | false | none | 30 | |
| 726 | Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5383/donald-trump-usa-president-on-2021-01-21/ | Metaculus | true | 1% | 3020 | |
| 727 | When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/ | Metaculus | false | none | 17 | |
| 728 | Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 51 | |
| 729 | Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5411/margaret-ferrier-resignation-by-april-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 148 | |
| 730 | Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/ | Metaculus | true | 55.00000000000001% | 29 | |
| 731 | Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/ | Metaculus | true | 45% | 33 | |
| 732 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 107 | |
| 733 | Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 55 | |
| 734 | When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/ | Metaculus | false | none | 12 | |
| 735 | Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 50 | |
| 736 | Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/ | Metaculus | true | 43% | 60 | |
| 737 | Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 176 | |
| 738 | What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 123 | |
| 739 | How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5454/growth-in-interest-for-machine-translation/ | Metaculus | false | none | 35 | |
| 740 | When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/ | Metaculus | false | none | 73 | |
| 741 | When will be the next S&P 500 correction? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/ | Metaculus | false | none | 62 | |
| 742 | Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/ | Metaculus | true | 72% | 30 | |
| 743 | Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 29 | |
| 744 | Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/ | Metaculus | true | 22% | 27 | |
| 745 | How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 35 | |
| 746 | Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/ | Metaculus | false | none | 15 | |
| 747 | Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/ | Metaculus | false | none | 17 | |
| 748 | When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/ | Metaculus | false | none | 70 | |
| 749 | Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 104 | |
| 750 | Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 68% | 132 | |
| 751 | When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/ | Metaculus | false | none | 47 | |
| 752 | How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 81 | |
| 753 | What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/ | Metaculus | false | none | 32 | |
| 754 | When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/ | Metaculus | false | none | 36 | |
| 755 | Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 26 | |
| 756 | How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5539/dc-fast-public-charging-stations-by-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 48 | |
| 757 | Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 6% | 65 | |
| 758 | Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/ | Metaculus | true | 73% | 47 | |
| 759 | Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 44 | |
| 760 | What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/ | Metaculus | false | none | 19 | |
| 761 | Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/ | Metaculus | true | 79% | 53 | |
| 762 | Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 67 | |
| 763 | Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/ | Metaculus | true | 75% | 241 | |
| 764 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 45 | |
| 765 | When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/ | Metaculus | false | none | 30 | |
| 766 | What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 82 | |
| 767 | How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 35 | |
| 768 | When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/ | Metaculus | false | none | 20 | |
| 769 | Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 75% | 29 | |
| 770 | What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/ | Metaculus | false | none | 30 | |
| 771 | Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/ | Metaculus | true | 54% | 30 | |
| 772 | How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 83 | |
| 773 | What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 41 | |
| 774 | Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 49 | |
| 775 | What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/ | Metaculus | false | none | 33 | |
| 776 | Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 57.99999999999999% | 129 | |
| 777 | Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 28 | |
| 778 | What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 66 | |
| 779 | What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 115 | |
| 780 | What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 73 | |
| 781 | In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20] | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5643/us-election-concession-date/ | Metaculus | false | none | 1425 | |
| 782 | When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/ | Metaculus | false | none | 21 | |
| 783 | When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/ | Metaculus | false | none | 33 | |
| 784 | Will Trump flee the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/ | Metaculus | true | 13% | 127 | |
| 785 | Will Trump freely leave the White House? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5656/will-trump-freely-leave-the-white-house/ | Metaculus | true | 97% | 509 | |
| 786 | How will Joe Biden rank among presidents? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/ | Metaculus | false | none | 63 | |
| 787 | What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/ | Metaculus | false | none | 144 | |
| 788 | What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/ | Metaculus | false | none | 137 | |
| 789 | What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/ | Metaculus | false | none | 86 | |
| 790 | When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/ | Metaculus | false | none | 41 | |
| 791 | How will Donald Trump rank among presidents? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5672/how-will-donald-trump-rank-among-presidents/ | Metaculus | false | none | 219 | |
| 792 | Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 48 | |
| 793 | What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 22 | |
| 794 | By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/ | Metaculus | false | none | 17 | |
| 795 | When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/ | Metaculus | false | none | 31 | |
| 796 | How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 25 | |
| 797 | Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 21 | |
| 798 | Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5685/will-donald-trump-attempt-to-pardon-himself/ | Metaculus | true | 46% | 428 | |
| 799 | Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5686/trump-attempts-to-pardon-family-member/ | Metaculus | true | 55.00000000000001% | 306 | |
| 800 | Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 55 | |
| 801 | When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/ | Metaculus | false | none | 10 | |
| 802 | When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/ | Metaculus | false | none | 25 | |
| 803 | What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 47 | |
| 804 | Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 67% | 38 | |
| 805 | Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/ | Metaculus | true | 32% | 28 | |
| 806 | Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/ | Metaculus | true | 3% | 207 | |
| 807 | Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 114 | |
| 808 | When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ | Metaculus | false | none | 225 | |
| 809 | What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/ | Metaculus | false | none | 32 | |
| 810 | Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 150 | |
| 811 | What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 117 | |
| 812 | Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/ | Metaculus | true | 98% | 1315 | |
| 813 | By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5747/will-realdonaldtrump-or-potus-be-suspended/ | Metaculus | true | 54% | 141 | |
| 814 | Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/ | Metaculus | true | 32% | 133 | |
| 815 | What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/ | Metaculus | false | none | 55 | |
| 816 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/ | Metaculus | false | none | 149 | |
| 817 | When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/ | Metaculus | false | none | 43 | |
| 818 | Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5766/yang-to-run-for-nyc-mayor-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 98% | 339 | |
| 819 | When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ | Metaculus | false | none | 106 | |
| 820 | When will GTA VI be released in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/ | Metaculus | false | none | 46 | |
| 821 | When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/ | Metaculus | false | none | 396 | |
| 822 | What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5774/net-bids-in-fcc-auction-107/ | Metaculus | false | none | 58 | |
| 823 | What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 21 | |
| 824 | What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 80 | |
| 825 | What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 52 | |
| 826 | What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 136 | |
| 827 | What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 59 | |
| 828 | What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 68 | |
| 829 | What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 43 | |
| 830 | What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 63 | |
| 831 | What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 45 | |
| 832 | How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5800/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/ | Metaculus | false | none | 135 | |
| 833 | What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 51 | |
| 834 | How large will Monaco be in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/ | Metaculus | false | none | 42 | |
| 835 | When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/ | Metaculus | false | none | 13 | |
| 836 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/ | Metaculus | false | none | 224 | |
| 837 | Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/ | Metaculus | true | 28.999999999999996% | 30 | |
| 838 | How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/ | Metaculus | false | none | 71 | |
| 839 | How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5811/sputnik-v-sars-cov-2-vaccine-efficacy/ | Metaculus | false | none | 43 | |
| 840 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/ | Metaculus | true | 45% | 60 | |
| 841 | Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/ | Metaculus | true | 25% | 29 | |
| 842 | When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/ | Metaculus | false | none | 15 | |
| 843 | Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/ | Metaculus | true | 76% | 77 | |
| 844 | Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5825/trump-at-bidens-inauguration/ | Metaculus | true | 3% | 590 | |
| 845 | Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/ | Metaculus | true | 23% | 306 | |
| 846 | How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 19 | |
| 847 | How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 24 | |
| 848 | Will China land the next person on the Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 51 | |
| 849 | When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/ | Metaculus | false | none | 65 | |
| 850 | How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 37 | |
| 851 | How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/ | Metaculus | false | none | 19 | |
| 852 | On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/ | Metaculus | true | 79% | 109 | |
| 853 | When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/ | Metaculus | false | none | 30 | |
| 854 | When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/ | Metaculus | false | none | 70 | |
| 855 | What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/ | Metaculus | false | none | 38 | |
| 856 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/ | Metaculus | false | none | 37 | |
| 857 | Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 14 | |
| 858 | Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 51% | 25 | |
| 859 | What will US house prices be at the end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 38 | |
| 860 | What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5871/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ | Metaculus | false | none | 123 | |
| 861 | What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/ | Metaculus | false | none | 194 | |
| 862 | Will online poker die by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/ | Metaculus | true | 17% | 53 | |
| 863 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 25 | |
| 864 | Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 65 | |
| 865 | Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 25 | |
| 866 | Will the Open Courts Act become law? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/ | Metaculus | true | 56.99999999999999% | 37 | |
| 867 | Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 26 | |
| 868 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 93 | |
| 869 | How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 99 | |
| 870 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5891/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 122 | |
| 871 | How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 27 | |
| 872 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 145 | |
| 873 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 121 | |
| 874 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5897/sota-on-cityscapes-on-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 115 | |
| 875 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5898/sota-on-imagenet-on-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 137 | |
| 876 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/ | Metaculus | false | none | 118 | |
| 877 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 109 | |
| 878 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 95 | |
| 879 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5902/sota-1-shot-on-on-miniimagenet-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 238 | |
| 880 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in Average Precision (AP)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5903/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 128 | |
| 881 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 121 | |
| 882 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 143 | |
| 883 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 101 | |
| 884 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 225 | |
| 885 | What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/ | Metaculus | false | none | 135 | |
| 886 | How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/ | Metaculus | false | none | 145 | |
| 887 | What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/ | Metaculus | false | none | 106 | |
| 888 | When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/ | Metaculus | false | none | 117 | |
| 889 | Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/ | Metaculus | true | 31% | 101 | |
| 890 | Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 13% | 97 | |
| 891 | Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 81 | |
| 892 | When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5917/date-us-rejoins-paris-climate-agreement/ | Metaculus | false | none | 228 | |
| 893 | Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 68% | 87 | |
| 894 | Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 98 | |
| 895 | What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 105 | |
| 896 | Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 97 | |
| 897 | What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 104 | |
| 898 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 122 | |
| 899 | What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 79 | |
| 900 | Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 197 | |
| 901 | What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/ | Metaculus | false | none | 169 | |
| 902 | What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 150 | |
| 903 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 82 | |
| 904 | What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 95 | |
| 905 | When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ | Metaculus | false | none | 84 | |
| 906 | What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 140 | |
| 907 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 117 | |
| 908 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 182 | |
| 909 | How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 125 | |
| 910 | What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 154 | |
| 911 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 132 | |
| 912 | What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 137 | |
| 913 | What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 74 | |
| 914 | How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/ | Metaculus | false | none | 50 | |
| 915 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 139 | |
| 916 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 129 | |
| 917 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 130 | |
| 918 | What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/ | Metaculus | false | none | 114 | |
| 919 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 107 | |
| 920 | What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ | Metaculus | false | none | 98 | |
| 921 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 151 | |
| 922 | What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 124 | |
| 923 | What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/ | Metaculus | false | none | 88 | |
| 924 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/ | Metaculus | false | none | 132 | |
| 925 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/ | Metaculus | false | none | 193 | |
| 926 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/ | Metaculus | false | none | 136 | |
| 927 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5968/transit-activity-in-nyc-for-january/ | Metaculus | false | none | 172 | |
| 928 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5969/transit-activity-in-sf-bay-area-for-january/ | Metaculus | false | none | 144 | |
| 929 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5970/transit-activity-in-phoenix-for-december/ | Metaculus | false | none | 145 | |
| 930 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5972/transit-activity-in-dallas-tx-for-december/ | Metaculus | false | none | 141 | |
| 931 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5973/transit-activity-in-dallas-tx-for-february/ | Metaculus | false | none | 131 | |
| 932 | What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/ | Metaculus | false | none | 41 | |
| 933 | Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/ | Metaculus | true | 76% | 112 | |
| 934 | Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5986/glastonbury-festival-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 41% | 57 | |
| 935 | What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 936 | For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/ | Metaculus | false | none | 61 | |
| 937 | For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/ | Metaculus | false | none | 37 | |
| 938 | What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 30 | |
| 939 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 18 | |
| 940 | Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/ | Metaculus | true | 40% | 31 | |
| 941 | What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 19 | |
| 942 | For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/ | Metaculus | true | 67% | 31 | |
| 943 | What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/ | Metaculus | false | none | 52 | |
| 944 | What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/ | Metaculus | false | none | 54 | |
| 945 | How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 28 | |
| 946 | Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/ | Metaculus | true | 80% | 69 | |
| 947 | When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 948 | How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 949 | What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/ | Metaculus | false | none | 24 | |
| 950 | Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/ | Metaculus | true | 65% | 107 | |
| 951 | Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/ | Metaculus | true | 50% | 73 | |
| 952 | Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/ | Metaculus | true | 8% | 37 | |
| 953 | Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/ | Metaculus | true | 44% | 33 | |
| 954 | Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 35 | |
| 955 | When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/ | Metaculus | false | none | 66 | |
| 956 | Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/ | Metaculus | true | 20% | 68 | |
| 957 | Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 61 | |
| 958 | Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/ | Metaculus | true | 12% | 59 | |
| 959 | How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/ | Metaculus | false | none | 24 | |
| 960 | How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 961 | Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 15 | |
| 962 | Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/ | Metaculus | true | 93% | 306 | |
| 963 | When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/ | Metaculus | false | none | 49 | |
| 964 | Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/ | Metaculus | true | 30% | 47 | |
| 965 | Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/ | Metaculus | true | 71% | 16 | |
| 966 | Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/ | Metaculus | true | 33% | 174 | |
| 967 | What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/ | Metaculus | false | none | 13 | |
| 968 | How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 16 | |
| 969 | How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 16 | |
| 970 | How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 20 | |
| 971 | How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 28 | |
| 972 | How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 21 | |
| 973 | When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/ | Metaculus | false | none | 31 | |
| 974 | How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 20 | |
| 975 | What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/ | Metaculus | false | none | 16 | |
| 976 | What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 18 | |
| 977 | Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/ | Metaculus | true | 60% | 47 | |
| 978 | How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 24 | |
| 979 | Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/ | Metaculus | true | 23% | 38 | |
| 980 | When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/ | Metaculus | false | none | 84 | |
| 981 | How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/ | Metaculus | false | none | 30 | |
| 982 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/ | Metaculus | true | 6% | 29 | |
| 983 | In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 14 | |
| 984 | What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/ | Metaculus | false | none | 32 | |
| 985 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 37 | |
| 986 | When will there be at least one billion Americans? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/ | Metaculus | false | none | 60 | |
| 987 | What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/ | Metaculus | false | none | 16 | |
| 988 | When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/ | Metaculus | false | none | 29 | |
| 989 | How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 36 | |
| 990 | How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/ | Metaculus | false | none | 38 | |
| 991 | What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/ | Metaculus | false | none | 46 | |
| 992 | Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/ | Metaculus | true | 19% | 22 | |
| 993 | What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6160/new-us-hospital-admissions-24-30-january/ | Metaculus | false | none | 58 | |
| 994 | What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6161/new-us-covid-deaths-24-30-january/ | Metaculus | false | none | 69 | |
| 995 | What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6162/new-us-covid-cases-24-30-january/ | Metaculus | false | none | 53 | |
| 996 | What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6163/factor-covidhub-forecast-to-be-multiplied-by/ | Metaculus | false | none | 58 | |
| 997 | What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6164/number-of-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/ | Metaculus | false | none | 52 | |
| 998 | What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6165/number-of-us-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/ | Metaculus | false | none | 60 | |
| 999 | What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6166/-b117-among-all-s-gene-dropout-samples/ | Metaculus | false | none | 52 | |
| 1000 | Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6172/-4-of-25th-amendment-invoked-before-nov-3/ | Metaculus | true | 5% | 659 | |
| 1001 | What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6173/trump-approval-rating-on-18-jan-2021/ | Metaculus | false | none | 204 | |
| 1002 | [Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6177/trump-out-before-20200120/ | Metaculus | true | 15% | 430 | |
| 1003 | Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/ | Metaculus | true | 32% | 56 |