metaforecast/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
2021-01-12 13:43:41 +01:00

36 KiB
Raw Blame History

1TitleURLPlatformBinary question?Percentage# Forecasts# Forecasters
2Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lvGood Judgment Openfalsenone5138
3Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021Good Judgment Opentrue50%1917
4Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021Good Judgment Opentrue95%6844
5Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone2520
6Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-unionGood Judgment Opentrue66%4437
7Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Opentrue47%4534
8Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022Good Judgment Opentrue1%4427
9Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-seaGood Judgment Opentrue2%8678
10When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcyGood Judgment Openfalsenone4030
11At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-worldGood Judgment Openfalsenone7665
12Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-luciaGood Judgment Openfalsenone6352
13How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-electionGood Judgment Openfalsenone1911
14What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone5728
15How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1887-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-americas-region-as-of-1-february-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone19083
16How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1886-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-united-kingdom-as-of-1-february-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone23294
17What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone8550
18Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021Good Judgment Opentrue18%9662
19When will Mexicos Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabisGood Judgment Openfalsenone1715
20On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higherGood Judgment Openfalsenone18183
21On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0Good Judgment Openfalsenone12467
22Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knessetGood Judgment Openfalsenone166114
23At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone7968
24Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoinGood Judgment Opentrue58%8960
25Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00Good Judgment Opentrue4%9954
26Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone288158
27Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone220163
28Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-chinaGood Judgment Opentrue35%164119
29Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021Good Judgment Opentrue10%206169
30Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowersGood Judgment Opentrue40%13781
31Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-researchGood Judgment Opentrue36%16277
32Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-chinaGood Judgment Openfalsenone16089
33Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022Good Judgment Opentrue10%153102
34When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-sGood Judgment Openfalsenone12072
35Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisherGood Judgment Opentrue58%5438
36Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zeroGood Judgment Opentrue10%202153
37Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020Good Judgment Opentrue92%7050
38In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitutionGood Judgment Opentrue66%3528
39Before 21 January 2021, will the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) enter into a consent order that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1860-before-21-january-2021-will-the-federal-housing-finance-agency-fhfa-enter-into-a-consent-order-that-would-allow-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-to-exit-conservatorshipGood Judgment Opentrue0%6343
40What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloombergGood Judgment Openfalsenone8934
41Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstanGood Judgment Openfalsenone6527
42Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-reportGood Judgment Opentrue70%203140
43Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peruGood Judgment Openfalsenone7858
44Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20Good Judgment Opentrue56%274154
45Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnamGood Judgment Openfalsenone16088
46What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone315203
47How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone640275
48How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone316177
49Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazilGood Judgment Opentrue5%226176
50Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021Good Judgment Opentrue2%289120
51Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue3%364181
52In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-countGood Judgment Opentrue70%176112
53Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eiaGood Judgment Opentrue95%237163
54On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergencyGood Judgment Opentrue85%213150
55Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oilGood Judgment Opentrue1%224101
56When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-regionGood Judgment Openfalsenone18682
57Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021Good Judgment Opentrue4%291194
58Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwanGood Judgment Opentrue4%359199
59Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021Good Judgment Opentrue309144
60When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-regionGood Judgment Openfalsenone32191
61At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone12879
62Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authorityGood Judgment Opentrue10%13053
63Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-awsGood Judgment Opentrue4%216131
64Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019Good Judgment Opentrue90%21098
65How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone775163
66Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue21559
67Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoirGood Judgment Opentrue5%14957
68Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conductGood Judgment Openfalsenone12240
69Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022Good Judgment Opentrue99%11652
70When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-statesGood Judgment Openfalsenone337138
71Before 21 January 2021, will the House of Representatives, pursuant to the 12th Amendment, vote to choose a president of the United States?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1809-before-21-january-2021-will-the-house-of-representatives-pursuant-to-the-12th-amendment-vote-to-choose-a-president-of-the-united-statesGood Judgment Opentrue385232
72For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-statesGood Judgment Opentrue28%440143
73What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone18762
74What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone27478
75When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-governmentGood Judgment Openfalsenone28155
76Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-chinaGood Judgment Opentrue1%347177
77In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutionalGood Judgment Opentrue96%18264
78Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021Good Judgment Opentrue2%320146
79At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1791-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-december-2020Good Judgment Openfalsenone178111
80Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-fromGood Judgment Openfalsenone21497
81When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-matchGood Judgment Openfalsenone488172
82Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdomGood Judgment Opentrue10%799389
83Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%299149
84Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-systemGood Judgment Opentrue0%260135
85Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Opentrue25%437133
86When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-dayGood Judgment Openfalsenone604152
87In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-systemGood Judgment Opentrue90%18071
88In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutionalGood Judgment Opentrue28872
89Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympicsGood Judgment Opentrue4%438162
90How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone42888
91When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-packageGood Judgment Openfalsenone17647
92How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone24775
93Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-serviceGood Judgment Openfalsenone18270
94Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spainGood Judgment Openfalsenone21496
95Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-batteryGood Judgment Openfalsenone18952
96When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-americaGood Judgment Openfalsenone43292
97Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-monthGood Judgment Opentrue2%247123
98Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-usedGood Judgment Opentrue3%473127
99When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1711-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-lines-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-sGood Judgment Openfalsenone818253
100Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-sGood Judgment Openfalsenone17771
101How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combinedGood Judgment Openfalsenone16644
102How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone15929
103How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone816134
104Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceledGood Judgment Openfalsenone939343
105Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-lawGood Judgment Opentrue70%19794
106Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%804371
107How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone21967
108How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone21664
109Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheelGood Judgment Openfalsenone329181
110Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehiclesGood Judgment Opentrue16179
111What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehiclesGood Judgment Openfalsenone21785
112What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevsGood Judgment Openfalsenone319130
113Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 24 January 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1502-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-24-january-2021Good Judgment Opentrue1%825263
114Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managersGood Judgment Opentrue2%24795
115Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assetsGood Judgment Opentrue1%273123
116When will Donald Trump cease to be president of the United States?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1290-when-will-donald-trump-cease-to-be-president-of-the-united-statesGood Judgment Openfalsenone64452159