545 KiB
545 KiB
index title url qualityindicators 0 How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/899-how-will-the-ratio-of-china-authored-to-u-s-authored-highly-cited-ai-papers-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 35; numforecasters: 28; stars: 2 1 How will the percentage of U.S. residents with "very little" or "some" trust in the U.S. military change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/864-how-will-the-percentage-of-u-s-residents-with-some-or-very-little-trust-in-the-u-s-military-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 64; numforecasters: 59; stars: 2 2 Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/349-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-in-the-next-six-months numforecasts: 69; numforecasters: 62; stars: 2 3 How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/410-how-politically-polarized-will-u-s-citizens-be-in-2024 numforecasts: 140; numforecasters: 122; stars: 3 4 How will the combined annual dollar amount of DoD contracts with the "Big 5" tech companies change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/311-how-will-the-combined-annual-dollar-amount-of-dod-contracts-with-the-big-5-tech-companies-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 44; numforecasters: 36; stars: 2 5 How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/382-how-will-the-percentage-of-smic-revenue-from-14-28-nm-chips-or-smaller-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 35; numforecasters: 27; stars: 2 6 How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/422-how-will-the-percentage-of-u-s-residents-who-are-concerned-about-how-the-government-uses-their-data-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 85; numforecasters: 72; stars: 2 7 How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/396-how-will-the-combined-annual-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 59; numforecasters: 51; stars: 2 8 How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/389-how-will-the-geopolitical-risk-gpr-index-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 62; numforecasters: 53; stars: 2 9 Will the U.S. military acknowledge using an autonomously operated drone to identify and deploy lethal force against a human target in the next four quarters (year)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/527-will-the-u-s-military-acknowledge-using-an-autonomously-operated-drone-to-identify-and-deploy-lethal-force-against-a-human-target-in-the-next-four-quarters-year numforecasts: 84; numforecasters: 76; stars: 2 10 How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/350-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 36; numforecasters: 33; stars: 2 11 How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/403-how-will-money-raised-for-private-u-s-tech-companies-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 31; numforecasters: 28; stars: 2 12 How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/445-how-will-the-percentage-of-highly-cited-u-s-ai-publications-supported-by-a-dod-grant-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 34; numforecasters: 31; stars: 2 13 How will the percentage of DoD subcontracts for scientific research and development services going to Northern California-based companies change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/332-how-will-the-percentage-of-dod-subcontracts-for-scientific-research-and-development-services-going-to-northern-california-based-companies-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 24; numforecasters: 20; stars: 2 14 How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/339-how-will-the-number-of-defense-innovation-unit-transitions-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 29; numforecasters: 23; stars: 2 15 How will the percentage of Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) computer science graduates whose first job is at a company that has a contract with DoD change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/368-how-will-the-percentage-of-carnegie-mellon-university-cmu-computer-science-graduates-whose-first-job-is-a-company-that-has-a-contract-with-dod-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 33; numforecasters: 27; stars: 2 16 How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/374-how-will-the-number-of-japanese-air-force-responses-to-threats-to-japan-s-territorial-airspace-by-chinese-military-aircraft-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 43; numforecasters: 29; stars: 2 17 Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/373-will-china-execute-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-against-vietnam-india-or-taiwan-in-the-next-six-months numforecasts: 109; numforecasters: 87; stars: 3 18 Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/372-will-china-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-feature-in-the-south-china-sea-in-the-next-six-months numforecasts: 77; numforecasters: 61; stars: 2 19 When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/171-when-will-joe-biden-cease-to-be-president-of-the-united-states numforecasts: 179; numforecasters: 114; stars: 3 20 Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/170-will-the-united-states-have-the-world-s-fastest-supercomputer-in-june-2022 numforecasts: 160; numforecasters: 101; stars: 3 21 When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/168-when-will-1-billion-people-in-india-receive-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine numforecasts: 253; numforecasters: 136; stars: 3 22 Will there be an organized employee protest at one of the "Big 5" tech companies against the company's involvement with DoD in the next four quarters (year)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/442-will-there-be-an-organized-employee-protest-at-one-of-the-big-5-tech-companies-against-the-company-s-involvement-with-dod-in-the-next-year numforecasts: 60; numforecasters: 50; stars: 2 23 [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/155-experimental-what-will-be-the-median-foretell-forecast-on-whether-covid-19-originated-in-a-lab-in-wuhan-china-on-october-1-2021 numforecasts: 274; numforecasters: 95; stars: 3 24 [Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/154-experimental-did-covid-19-originate-in-a-lab-in-wuhan-china numforecasts: 331; numforecasters: 139; stars: 3 25 Will the Democratic Party maintain its majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm elections in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/150-will-the-democratic-party-maintain-its-majority-in-the-u-s-house-of-representatives-after-the-midterm-elections-in-2022 numforecasts: 249; numforecasters: 109; stars: 3 26 What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/141-what-will-the-big-5-tech-companies-average-reputation-ranking-be-in-the-2022-harris-poll numforecasts: 279; numforecasters: 99; stars: 3 27 What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/134-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-have-a-chinese-co-author-in-2022 numforecasts: 194; numforecasters: 67; stars: 3 28 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/132-what-percentage-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-reference-ai-ethics-in-2022 numforecasts: 212; numforecasters: 70; stars: 3 29 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/131-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-in-2022 numforecasts: 185; numforecasters: 56; stars: 3 30 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/129-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2022 numforecasts: 165; numforecasters: 43; stars: 3 31 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/128-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2022 numforecasts: 143; numforecasters: 38; stars: 3 32 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/130-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-in-2022 numforecasts: 150; numforecasters: 42; stars: 3 33 Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 numforecasts: 190; numforecasters: 49; stars: 3 34 Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 numforecasts: 172; numforecasters: 49; stars: 3 35 Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 numforecasts: 169; numforecasters: 47; stars: 3 36 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022 numforecasts: 304; numforecasters: 81; stars: 3 37 What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022 numforecasts: 206; numforecasters: 50; stars: 3 38 What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022 numforecasts: 211; numforecasters: 57; stars: 3 39 Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 numforecasts: 652; numforecasters: 194; stars: 3 40 What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 numforecasts: 429; numforecasters: 137; stars: 3 41 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 numforecasts: 548; numforecasters: 188; stars: 3 42 % global rate of "$1.90 a day" poverty in 2030 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 43 A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608 numforecasts: 4; stars: 2 44 A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 45 Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 46 5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6 numforecasts: 7; stars: 2 47 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 48 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d numforecasts: 4; stars: 2 49 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7 numforecasts: 7; stars: 2 50 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 51 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 52 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 53 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 54 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 55 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 56 What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 57 How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781 numforecasts: 6; stars: 2 58 Will MIRI still exist in 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba numforecasts: 7; stars: 2 59 How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 60 Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 61 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131 numforecasts: 8; stars: 2 62 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 63 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a numforecasts: 4; stars: 2 64 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 65 What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534 numforecasts: 4; stars: 2 66 What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 67 What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53 numforecasts: 4; stars: 2 68 Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 69 Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 70 Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 71 Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 72 Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 73 Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 74 Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 75 Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 76 At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 77 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 78 At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275 numforecasts: 6; stars: 2 79 At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 80 At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 81 At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d numforecasts: 15; stars: 2 82 Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78 numforecasts: 9; stars: 2 83 At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507 numforecasts: 28; stars: 2 84 At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463 numforecasts: 53; stars: 2 85 When will the outbreak end? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70 numforecasts: 27; stars: 2 86 By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 87 By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 88 By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 89 How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 90 By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 91 By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 92 By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 93 By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 94 By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 95 By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 96 How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d numforecasts: 4; stars: 2 97 By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 98 By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 99 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826 numforecasts: 6; stars: 2 100 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 101 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 102 If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 103 If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 104 How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 105 Will Labour win the next election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d numforecasts: 7; stars: 2 106 Will Conservatives win the next election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786 numforecasts: 9; stars: 2 107 If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 108 If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 109 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 110 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 111 Will Brexit be a hard Brexit? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 112 If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 113 When will the next UK general election be? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d numforecasts: 4; stars: 2 114 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 115 If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3 numforecasts: 11; stars: 2 116 Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba numforecasts: 5; stars: 2 117 What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 118 If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 119 If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 120 What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 121 What fraction of 80,000 hours' impact is not related to career plan changes? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/c3ba1c83-fd04-47af-b8c1-7b493b0519e6 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 122 What proportion of donations to FHI go to Oxford University? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/c6587fcf-5113-4603-9d90-c9763a099476 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 123 How much influence would CSET have in a 2024 Republican US administration, relative to its influence in a 2024 US Democratic administration? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/fee03eb4-c956-4f61-81e6-76e2f76616c3 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 124 Has CSET done more harm than good so far in its policy interventions? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/623499ee-19dd-4d2a-b100-614a3a0b032a numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 125 Will CLR's work on their "Cooperation, conflict, and transformative artificial intelligence"/"bargaining in artificial learners" agenda be favorably reviewed in Lark's 2021 yearly AI alignment review?? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/cf4e48f1-3781-45b4-830a-d315435dc472 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 126 Is there a better option than CLR for suffering-focused donors? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/a2250763-8700-4768-96ba-215fd9d7739a numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 127 What fraction of CLR's research is only useful from a suffering-focused standpoint? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/e65ceadf-f35d-42ff-adb0-f30ec57a25d4 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 128 Will Rethink Priorities employ 5 FTEs producing high-quality longtermist research by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/6a8a92c1-2740-4e21-98a6-6c4311bc8461 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 129 Will Rethink Rethink Priorities be able to productively expand into the longtermist sphere? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/76d54743-3136-448d-adc6-de57d4eada9e numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 130 Will Rethink Priorities be able to produce research in the long-termist space similar in quality to the research they have produced on invertebrate welfare? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/b0083e46-4dee-4281-a324-605657773834 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2 131 How many FTE-years worth of high-quality research does LessWrong produce each year per FTE-year employed at LessWrong? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/1a6642cc-a4e3-427f-be75-39f05023ca7f numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 132 How many FTE-years worth of high-quality research does LessWrong produce per year? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/fbfde3f4-ed4c-44a1-8beb-4aa4389e3787 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 133 Is Projekt Framttid dead? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/5700fd38-7ac3-4380-baaa-b00351ba3e9c numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 134 Conditional on its continued existence, by 2025, will MacAskill still be the CEO of the Forethought Foundation? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/5260868a-c5cc-4f6f-acf5-b2293f718487 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 135 Will the Forethought Foundation continue to exist by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/e919e049-40cc-4155-9bda-9e2a47b0ea50 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 136 How many FTEs does FLI currently employ (as of 2021)? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/59ad32cb-17f3-4242-a440-5a4d44ffcfd7 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2 137 Will further work on a theory of malevolence be fruitful by 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/f689875d-fe82-43ee-88a6-0c414791f4d9 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 138 What percentage of CSER's research staff is doing high value work? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/d2aa8a4c-77e4-4a4a-8f1c-a4b85932922c numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 139 Will the APPFG continue to exist by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/b54917c1-f67c-4003-aff7-de188cc47879 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 140 Conditional on its continued existence, will the APPG help pass legislation in the UK related to its mission by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/6b379bd0-4659-45e4-b3d7-b769aed7c020 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 141 By, 2025, will the APPGFG help pass legislation in the UK related to its mission? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/301c0ffe-7697-4b7a-9908-4bee72642236 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 142 $100M to alternate foods is more cost-effective than to AI risk mitigation https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/704c1052-8e0b-4582-8feb-604a8c452ac3 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 143 $100M to alternate foods is more cost-effective than to AI risk mitigation (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/62c003c4-2525-4830-84ed-93686dc8cae1 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 144 Marginal money now on alternate foods is more cost effective than on AI risk mitigation https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/b1a21ed8-7819-467c-8a63-98b0c85993ef numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 145 Marginal money now on alternate foods is more cost effective than on AI risk mitigation (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/50d7c7a8-f46d-4427-af5f-12cbd898c40b numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 146 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall with planning and R&D as well https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/451d4013-d302-43c5-b2c3-bacc7d82ed59 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 147 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall with planning and R&D as well (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/f7616759-f00b-4fd1-a10e-0a281541efc6 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 148 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall from ALLFED so far https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/1a16fcf9-e155-4157-b02b-f9d2d546368c numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 149 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall from ALLFED so far (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/ff6231c6-3def-4663-82b7-d2d605bf37db numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 150 Untruncated reduction in far future potential due to 10% agricultural shortfall https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/6084ec83-df7b-4af7-8c58-612b491e6946 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 151 Untruncated reduction in far future potential due to 10% agricultural shortfall (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/36fdd2c9-7829-4fae-9222-ab0d1795d5b5 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 152 Untruncated additional mitigation of far future impact of war due to planning and R&D https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/c24a076b-d045-43d2-b3d4-b555227fae30 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 153 Untruncated additional mitigation of far future impact of war due to planning and R&D (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/07b1924e-0581-410f-a34c-3e87cfcd278a numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 154 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of war due to ALLFED so far https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/cd78ff36-da47-4411-ab67-d20eb0811333 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 155 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of war due to ALLFED so far (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/805f614e-e170-4a72-9bd2-daadd4d62789 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 156 Cost of planning, R&DF for alternate foods https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/f9203a65-d4ff-4aaf-95dc-39a577e2318a numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 157 Cost of planning, R&DF for alternate foods (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/106715d2-2484-47ac-ad1f-dcfb63ed55f8 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 158 Untruncated probability of full scale nuclear war per year https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/cca72358-624a-40e5-a87a-5b14a50fdea6 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 159 Untruncated probability of full scale nuclear war per year (ALLFED's estimates) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/e147be3b-3280-43aa-a27e-a1a561c66b18 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2 160 How many business applications will be made in the US in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2129-how-many-business-applications-will-be-made-in-the-us-in-2022 numforecasts: 12; numforecasters: 10; stars: 3 161 What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2128-what-percentage-of-us-retail-sales-will-be-made-online-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022 numforecasts: 13; numforecasters: 13; stars: 3 162 What will be the US office vacancy rate for the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2127-what-will-be-the-us-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers numforecasts: 18; numforecasters: 15; stars: 3 163 What percentage of venture capital dollars will go to US startups with female-only founders in 2022, according to Crunchbase? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2126-what-percentage-of-venture-capital-dollars-will-go-to-us-startups-with-female-only-founders-in-2022-according-to-crunchbase numforecasts: 15; numforecasters: 14; stars: 3 164 Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2125-before-1-september-2022-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir numforecasts: 13; numforecasters: 11; stars: 3 165 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2124-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-resulting-in-at-least-five-fatalities-before-1-september-2022 numforecasts: 20; numforecasters: 19; stars: 3 166 When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2123-when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-us-reported-to-the-cdc-next-reach-or-exceed-200-000 numforecasts: 20; numforecasters: 15; stars: 3 167 In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2119-in-united-states-v-tsarnaev-will-the-supreme-court-reinstate-the-death-sentence-imposed-against-boston-marathon-bomber-dzhokhar-tsarnaev numforecasts: 49; numforecasters: 40; stars: 3 168 What will be the 7-day average number of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 20 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2122-what-will-be-the-7-day-average-number-of-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-louisiana-for-the-week-ending-20-october-2021 numforecasts: 58; numforecasters: 34; stars: 3 169 What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2120-what-will-president-biden-s-approval-rating-be-as-of-31-march-2022-according-to-fivethirtyeight numforecasts: 108; numforecasters: 71; stars: 3 170 How far will the UAE national football team advance in the FIFA Arab Cup 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2118-how-far-will-the-uae-national-football-team-advance-in-the-fifa-arab-cup-2021 numforecasts: 25; numforecasters: 22; stars: 3 171 How much cash on hand will the following three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2121-how-much-cash-on-hand-will-the-following-three-donald-trump-affiliated-political-action-committees-pacs-have-combined-as-of-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 40; numforecasters: 25; stars: 3 172 Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2117-will-the-rate-of-new-daily-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-per-100k-people-in-massachusetts-be-higher-on-19-october-2021-than-it-was-on-7-september-2021 numforecasts: 98; numforecasters: 38; stars: 3 173 How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2116-how-many-job-openings-in-the-trade-transportation-and-utilities-industries-will-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-bls-report-for-november-2021 numforecasts: 62; numforecasters: 33; stars: 3 174 How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2115-how-many-twenty-foot-equivalent-units-teus-of-cargo-will-the-port-of-los-angeles-report-for-november-2021 numforecasts: 64; numforecasters: 33; stars: 3 175 What will be the US producer price index for Internet advertising sales in June 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2113-what-will-be-the-producer-price-index-for-internet-advertising-sales-in-june-2022 numforecasts: 33; numforecasters: 17; stars: 3 176 How many business applications will be made in the US in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2114-how-many-business-applications-will-be-made-in-the-us-in-2021 numforecasts: 53; numforecasters: 27; stars: 3 177 What will be the total value of assets under management by global sustainable funds at the end of 2021, according to Morningstar? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2112-what-will-be-the-total-value-of-assets-under-management-by-global-sustainable-funds-at-the-end-of-2021-according-to-morningstar numforecasts: 53; numforecasters: 37; stars: 3 178 What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2111-what-will-happen-next-to-the-united-arab-emirate-s-rolling-7-day-average-of-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19 numforecasts: 124; numforecasters: 56; stars: 3 179 When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2107-when-will-the-scottish-government-officially-request-discussions-on-or-agreement-to-a-section-30-order-from-the-uk-government-that-would-enable-the-scottish-government-to-call-a-new-independence-referendum numforecasts: 107; numforecasters: 72; stars: 3 180 Before 1 January 2022, will President Biden invite Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit the White House? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2108-before-1-january-2022-will-president-biden-invite-prime-minister-boris-johnson-to-visit-the-white-house numforecasts: 235; numforecasters: 132; stars: 3 181 Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" fell to 15% or lower? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2109-before-18-december-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-and-didn-t-travel-to-work-fell-to-15-or-lower numforecasts: 77; numforecasters: 58; stars: 3 182 Before 2 October 2021, will the Taliban submit credentials to the Secretary-General of the UN to represent Afghanistan for the 76th UN General Assembly session? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2110-before-2-october-2021-will-the-taliban-submit-credentials-to-the-secretary-general-of-the-un-to-represent-afghanistan-for-the-76th-un-general-assembly-session numforecasts: 287; numforecasters: 106; stars: 3 183 Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the "Paris Rulebook," the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2106-will-the-26th-un-climate-change-conference-of-the-parties-cop26-announce-the-finalization-of-the-paris-rulebook-the-rules-for-implementing-the-2015-paris-agreement-before-16-november-2021 numforecasts: 102; numforecasters: 76; stars: 3 184 Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2105-will-legal-restrictions-on-the-number-of-people-who-can-meet-indoors-be-imposed-in-england-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 213; numforecasters: 132; stars: 3 185 Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2102-will-rishi-sunak-cease-to-be-the-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 118; numforecasters: 77; stars: 3 186 Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2104-will-sir-keir-starmer-face-a-formal-challenge-for-the-leadership-of-the-labour-party-before-4-april-2022 numforecasts: 111; numforecasters: 74; stars: 3 187 Will the Liberal Party win a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2101-will-the-liberal-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-2021-canadian-parliamentary-elections numforecasts: 200; numforecasters: 69; stars: 3 188 Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2103-will-the-uk-or-eu-trigger-article-16-of-the-northern-ireland-protocol-before-1-february-2022 numforecasts: 99; numforecasters: 64; stars: 3 189 Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2097-before-13-february-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-in-iran-or-at-sea-between-the-national-military-or-law-enforcement-forces-of-iran-and-those-of-either-israel-or-a-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-member-state numforecasts: 91; numforecasters: 57; stars: 3 190 Which team will win the Major League Baseball World Series in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2098-which-team-will-win-the-major-league-baseball-world-series-in-2021 numforecasts: 140; numforecasters: 40; stars: 3 191 Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2100-before-1-january-2022-will-kais-saied-cease-to-be-the-president-of-tunisia numforecasts: 77; numforecasters: 46; stars: 3 192 When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2094-when-will-the-14-day-average-of-covid-19-hospitalized-patients-in-california-next-reach-or-exceed-12-000 numforecasts: 200; numforecasters: 52; stars: 3 193 When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2095-when-will-a-sars-cov-2-variant-other-than-delta-next-represent-more-than-70-0-of-total-covid-19-cases-in-the-us numforecasts: 217; numforecasters: 102; stars: 3 194 How many units will Ford produce in North America in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2092-how-many-units-will-ford-produce-in-north-america-in-2021 numforecasts: 116; numforecasters: 42; stars: 3 195 Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2091-before-1-january-2022-will-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-begin-delivering-natural-gas-to-germany numforecasts: 212; numforecasters: 70; stars: 3 196 Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments be imposed on New York City? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2096-before-1-november-2021-will-a-new-government-mask-mandate-for-individuals-fully-vaccinated-for-covid-19-that-includes-indoor-restaurants-and-or-retail-establishments-be-imposed-on-new-york-city numforecasts: 244; numforecasters: 78; stars: 3 197 How many fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases will be reported to the CDC as of 10 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2093-how-many-fatal-covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-will-be-reported-to-the-cdc-as-of-10-january-2022 numforecasts: 157; numforecasters: 55; stars: 3 198 Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2090-will-amazon-com-begin-to-accept-any-cryptocurrency-for-purchases-on-the-us-site-before-1-october-2022 numforecasts: 270; numforecasters: 156; stars: 3 199 Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2087-will-abiy-ahmed-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-ethiopia-by-way-of-extraconstitutional-events-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 85; numforecasters: 50; stars: 3 200 Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2086-before-1-january-2023-will-the-afghan-government-and-the-afghan-taliban-sign-an-agreement-that-includes-provisions-for-the-establishment-and-or-recognition-of-a-national-government numforecasts: 223; numforecasters: 79; stars: 3 201 Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2088-before-2-october-2021-will-the-un-general-assembly-recognize-delegates-from-the-national-unity-government-nug-as-representing-myanmar-for-the-76th-general-assembly-session numforecasts: 129; numforecasters: 47; stars: 3 202 At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2089-at-close-of-business-on-15-december-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-3-november-2021 numforecasts: 99; numforecasters: 52; stars: 3 203 What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2085-what-will-be-the-closing-price-per-barrel-for-west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-on-31-december-2021-according-to-bloomberg numforecasts: 322; numforecasters: 107; stars: 3 204 What will Chinese ride-hailing company DiDi's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2082-what-will-chinese-ride-hailing-company-didi-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 156; numforecasters: 40; stars: 3 205 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2084-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-egypt-and-ethiopia-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 117; numforecasters: 85; stars: 3 206 When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2081-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-fewer-than-1-3-million-travelers-per-day-for-three-consecutive-days numforecasts: 132; numforecasters: 66; stars: 3 207 Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2079-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws numforecasts: 127; numforecasters: 86; stars: 3 208 Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile? 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2054-will-at-least-3-5-million-people-in-new-zealand-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-before-30-december-2021 numforecasts: 265; numforecasters: 98; stars: 3 229 Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2053-will-the-us-truck-tonnage-index-reach-or-exceed-120-0-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 192; numforecasters: 61; stars: 3 230 Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2051-before-1-july-2022-will-the-us-impose-sanctions-on-any-chinese-person-or-entity-for-actions-related-to-the-covid-19-pandemic numforecasts: 223; numforecasters: 117; stars: 3 231 What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2052-what-will-be-the-percentage-change-in-the-producer-price-index-for-writing-and-printing-papers-for-may-2022-as-compared-to-may-2021 numforecasts: 113; numforecasters: 38; stars: 3 232 How many thousand tonnes (kt) of paper and paperboard will be produced globally in 2021? 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2038-before-1-january-2022-will-the-us-intelligence-community-publicly-state-that-a-laboratory-accident-is-a-more-probable-scenario-for-the-inception-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-than-it-having-emerged-naturally-through-contact-with-infected-animals numforecasts: 550; numforecasters: 243; stars: 3 239 What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2032-what-will-us-holiday-season-retail-sales-be-for-2021-relative-to-the-2020-holiday-season numforecasts: 139; numforecasters: 45; stars: 3 240 When will people in Guangdong no longer be required to show a negative COVID-19 test in order to leave the Chinese province? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2034-when-will-people-in-guangdong-no-longer-be-required-to-show-a-negative-covid-19-test-in-order-to-leave-the-chinese-province numforecasts: 132; numforecasters: 29; stars: 3 241 Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2033-will-any-four-week-average-of-us-field-production-of-crude-oil-exceed-12-million-b-d-in-2021 numforecasts: 208; numforecasters: 49; stars: 3 242 What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2030-what-will-be-the-us-domestic-box-office-gross-in-the-opening-weekend-for-the-next-james-bond-film-no-time-to-die numforecasts: 286; numforecasters: 66; stars: 3 243 How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2028-how-many-total-major-hurricanes-category-3-or-higher-will-occur-in-the-atlantic-ocean-in-the-2021-hurricane-season-according-to-the-national-hurricane-center numforecasts: 482; numforecasters: 106; stars: 3 244 Which major cryptocurrency will perform best between 27 May 2021 and 29 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2022-which-major-cryptocurrency-will-perform-best-between-27-may-2021-and-29-november-2021 numforecasts: 339; numforecasters: 89; stars: 3 245 Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2020-will-the-us-civilian-labor-force-participation-rate-reach-or-exceed-63-0-for-any-month-in-2021 numforecasts: 241; numforecasters: 88; stars: 3 246 What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2017-what-will-be-the-annualized-rate-of-housing-starts-for-october-2021 numforecasts: 275; numforecasters: 78; stars: 3 247 Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2011-before-8-january-2022-will-facebook-allow-donald-trump-to-post-on-facebook-and-or-instagram-from-any-of-his-verified-accounts numforecasts: 210; numforecasters: 113; stars: 3 248 Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2010-before-14-december-2021-will-the-world-trade-organization-wto-officially-agree-to-grant-waivers-for-intellectual-property-protections-for-covid-19-vaccine-technology numforecasts: 195; numforecasters: 87; stars: 3 249 According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have "listened to a podcast in the last month?" https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2001-according-to-the-infinite-dial-2022-what-percentage-of-the-us-population-will-have-listened-to-a-podcast-in-the-last-month numforecasts: 303; numforecasters: 114; stars: 3 250 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report 40 million or more confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2004-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-40-million-or-more-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-india numforecasts: 675; numforecasters: 114; stars: 3 251 Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2005-will-a-new-collective-bargaining-agreement-cba-between-major-league-baseball-and-the-major-league-baseball-players-association-be-ratified-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 125; numforecasters: 33; stars: 3 252 How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2003-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-authorized-for-emergency-use-or-approved-by-the-us-fda-as-of-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 346; numforecasters: 103; stars: 3 253 Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2002-will-us-print-book-sales-in-2021-exceed-those-in-2020 numforecasts: 498; numforecasters: 153; stars: 3 254 At close of business on 22 September 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1994-at-close-of-business-on-22-september-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021 numforecasts: 210; numforecasters: 72; stars: 3 255 Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1993-before-16-december-2021-will-the-federal-reserve-announce-it-will-reduce-its-monthly-quantitative-easing-bond-buying numforecasts: 396; numforecasters: 86; stars: 3 256 Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1995-will-us-federal-legislation-implementing-or-authorizing-a-mandatory-carbon-pricing-mechanism-become-law-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 175; numforecasters: 76; stars: 3 257 Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1991-between-30-april-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-times-will-the-council-of-the-european-union-impose-new-restrictive-measures-sanctions-on-china-over-human-rights-violations-and-abuses-in-xinjiang numforecasts: 276; numforecasters: 85; stars: 3 258 Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1982-before-1-january-2022-will-the-people-s-liberation-army-pla-and-or-people-s-armed-police-pap-engage-in-a-confrontation-with-hong-kongers numforecasts: 219; numforecasters: 112; stars: 3 259 Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1989-between-16-april-2021-and-31-december-2021-will-asml-obtain-an-export-license-from-the-netherlands-to-export-an-extreme-ultraviolet-euv-lithography-system-to-the-people-s-republic-of-china numforecasts: 180; numforecasters: 85; stars: 3 260 Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government? 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1985-will-the-eu-establish-a-moratorium-or-ban-on-the-use-of-facial-recognition-systems-frs-in-public-spaces-by-public-authorities-in-premises-meant-for-education-and-healthcare-and-or-by-law-enforcement-in-semi-public-spaces-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 173; numforecasters: 75; stars: 3 264 What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021 numforecasts: 364; numforecasters: 56; stars: 3 265 What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021 numforecasts: 377; numforecasters: 76; stars: 3 266 What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021 numforecasts: 617; numforecasters: 157; stars: 3 267 Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021 numforecasts: 541; numforecasters: 170; stars: 3 268 Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km numforecasts: 634; numforecasters: 177; stars: 3 269 Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021 numforecasts: 193; numforecasters: 63; stars: 3 270 Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019 numforecasts: 327; numforecasters: 147; stars: 3 271 Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts numforecasts: 238; numforecasters: 77; stars: 3 272 Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 330; numforecasters: 91; stars: 3 273 Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp numforecasts: 394; numforecasters: 108; stars: 3 274 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa numforecasts: 775; numforecasters: 146; stars: 3 275 Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 numforecasts: 227; numforecasters: 85; stars: 3 276 Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 731; numforecasters: 190; stars: 3 277 Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 422; numforecasters: 206; stars: 3 278 Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 571; numforecasters: 158; stars: 3 279 Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 numforecasts: 372; numforecasters: 123; stars: 3 280 Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities numforecasts: 394; numforecasters: 120; stars: 3 281 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 numforecasts: 408; numforecasters: 163; stars: 3 282 Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union numforecasts: 549; numforecasters: 158; stars: 3 283 How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 numforecasts: 660; numforecasters: 174; stars: 3 284 Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 numforecasts: 435; numforecasters: 107; stars: 3 285 Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea numforecasts: 356; numforecasters: 150; stars: 3 286 Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 numforecasts: 139; numforecasters: 60; stars: 3 287 Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 numforecasts: 255; numforecasters: 55; stars: 3 288 What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 760; numforecasters: 133; stars: 3 289 Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 numforecasts: 468; numforecasters: 96; stars: 3 290 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union numforecasts: 665; numforecasters: 203; stars: 3 291 Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 numforecasts: 193; numforecasters: 48; stars: 3 292 At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world numforecasts: 358; numforecasters: 118; stars: 3 293 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 645; numforecasters: 90; stars: 3 294 Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin numforecasts: 386; numforecasters: 94; stars: 3 295 Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 1013; numforecasters: 244; stars: 3 296 Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china numforecasts: 445; numforecasters: 175; stars: 3 297 Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 448; numforecasters: 169; stars: 3 298 Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher numforecasts: 186; numforecasters: 53; stars: 3 299 Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 numforecasts: 179; numforecasters: 75; stars: 3 300 Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil numforecasts: 721; numforecasters: 278; stars: 3 301 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count numforecasts: 541; numforecasters: 155; stars: 3 302 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws numforecasts: 1091; numforecasters: 641; stars: 3 303 Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct numforecasts: 292; numforecasters: 64; stars: 3 304 Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 numforecasts: 365; numforecasters: 86; stars: 3 305 Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics numforecasts: 1140; numforecasters: 357; stars: 3 306 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used numforecasts: 972; numforecasters: 181; stars: 3 307 Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 308 How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7768/apple-papers-at-neurips-2023/ numforecasts: 16; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 309 Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 310 Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/ numforecasts: 330; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 311 Will annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6604/us-hyperinflation-in-any-year-before-2050/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 312 Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7162/derek-chauvin-to-be-tried-again-for-homicide/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 313 Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7839/sci-hub-to-exist-in-2023/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 314 How many seats will the Labour Party win at the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7650/labour-seats-at-next-uk-general-election/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 315 What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7341/percent-of-gdp-us-spends-on-healthcare-2035/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 316 Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 317 What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7866/va-vaccine-doses-administered-25-september/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 318 How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 319 What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7435/quantum-computing-private-funding/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 320 How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 321 If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 322 Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7441/draft-registration-for-women-before-2024/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 323 When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/ numforecasts: 209; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 324 Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 325 Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7737/us-diplomatic-evacuation-in-kabul-2021/ numforecasts: 492; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 326 When will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6963/transplants-without-immunosuppressants/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 327 Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7631/israel-recognizing-palestine/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 328 Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 329 When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 330 Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 331 What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7585/polish-democracy-in-2030/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 332 Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/ numforecasts: 725; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 333 When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 334 Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 335 Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/ numforecasts: 454; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 336 Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7738/twitter-says-nyt-tweet-misinforms-by-2025/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 337 Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/ numforecasts: 414; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 338 Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7139/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2021/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 339 Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 340 Assuming that the Green Party does not join the federal government following the German federal elections on September 26th, 2021, what will be German per capita CO2 emissions in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6653/co2-emissions-in-germany-in-2025-non-greens/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 341 Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 342 Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7736/unique-games-conjecture-resolution/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 343 What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Pakistan by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Pakistan occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7410/countervalue-detonations-by-pakistan-by-2050/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 344 By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7963/will-the-large-child-tax-credit-be-extended/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 345 For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7371/non-farm-payroll-september-2021/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 346 Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 347 When will the US implement a national carbon tax or carbon pricing mechanism? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7877/date-us-passes-national-carbon-pricing-bill/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 348 According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7616/-vaccine-accepting-virginians-on-1-oct/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 349 Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7848/next-leader-of-the-swedish-social-democrats/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 350 Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 351 How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 352 Will Donald Trump become speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-to-be-souse-speaker-before-1152023/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 353 When will the prize pool of an esport tournament be greater than any other sport tournament in that year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6708/esport-tournament-has-more-money-than-sport/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 354 When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 355 When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7605/date-of-pre-aug-2022-va-cli-visits-peak/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 356 Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7862/sam-bankman-fried-to-donate-1bn-before-2031/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 357 What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7366/initial-jobless-claims-september-2021/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 358 Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/ numforecasts: 456; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 359 When will the mammoth be revived? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 360 On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "low"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/ numforecasts: 283; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 361 Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/ numforecasts: 807; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 362 Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 363 What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7842/avatar-2-box-office/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 364 Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/ numforecasts: 258; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 365 By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7882/will-americans-care-about-space-by-2030/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 366 Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 367 Is the sunflower conjecture true? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7550/truth-of-the-sunflower-conjecture/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 368 What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7610/3rd-grader-math-test-pass-rate-for-2021-2022/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 369 What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 370 By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 371 Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/ numforecasts: 343; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 372 When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months, if it is operational through 2022-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7782/date-ingenuity-ceases-flights-for-6-months/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 373 Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 374 Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/ numforecasts: 169; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 375 Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6959/war-in-donbass-2021/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 376 How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 377 When will a West Balkan state next join the EU? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7228/date-a-west-balkan-state-next-joins-the-eu/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 378 When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/ numforecasts: 187; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 379 What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 380 When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 381 Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/ numforecasts: 497; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 382 Will there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 383 Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/ numforecasts: 457; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 384 When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 385 When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7493/date-uber-becomes-cheaper-in-bay-area/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 386 What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7830/virginia-5-11-year-olds-vaccinations-in-2021/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 387 Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/ numforecasts: 124; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 388 Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7544/pr%25C3%25B3spera-at-10000-residents-before-2035/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 389 When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7835/self-driving-taxis-in-germany/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 390 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 391 Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/ numforecasts: 267; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 392 Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/ numforecasts: 825; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 393 Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7688/aubrey-de-grey-to-leave-sens-by-2022/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 394 Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 395 Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/ numforecasts: 427; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 396 How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 397 Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 398 When will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6938/when-will-there-be-a-50b-parameter-dall-e/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 399 What will the World's GDP be in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/ numforecasts: 169; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 400 When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/ numforecasts: 274; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 401 Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 402 Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/ numforecasts: 493; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 403 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7049/2022-non-exit-investment-in-cultivated-meat/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 404 When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7614/cdc-recommends-booster-for-all-vaccinated-ppl/ numforecasts: 297; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 405 When will a computer program be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7398/when-will-computers-be-competent-programmers/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 406 When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/ numforecasts: 233; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 407 When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/ numforecasts: 461; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 408 What percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7513/-israeli-population-that-is-haredi-in-2050/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 409 Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7211/us-conclude-covid-lab-leak-by-june-2022/ numforecasts: 512; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 410 What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7368/industrial-production-index-september-2021/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 411 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/ numforecasts: 244; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 412 Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7860/pakistan-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 413 When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7583/date-of-sputnik-v-who-approval-longer-range/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 414 When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/ numforecasts: 652; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 415 Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7859/turkey-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 416 How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 417 Is the Collatz Conjecture true? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/ numforecasts: 234; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 418 Will Catalonia become an independent state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/ numforecasts: 408; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 419 Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7861/china-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 420 How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 421 What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6929/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 422 Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 423 By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7958/will-scotus-strike-down-fed-worker-mandate/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 424 What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 425 How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7769/amazon-papers-at-neurips-in-2023/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 426 When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/ numforecasts: 564; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 427 When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7961/date-ingenuity-is-grounded-for-6-months/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 428 When will someone first be convicted of a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7880/first-extraterrestrial-murder/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 429 When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 430 When will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7319/date-of-decline-of-cafos-by-90/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 431 In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7831/us-election-2024-decided-by-supreme-court/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 432 What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 433 How many UN member states will there be in 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7761/number-of-un-members-in-2070/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 434 In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7987/commercial-paper-rate-and-cpi-wont-diverge/ numforecasts: 13; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 435 What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7776/2024-olympic-womens-100m-final/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 436 How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/ numforecasts: 230; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 437 Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 438 Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/ numforecasts: 1220; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 439 How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7896/cost-of-us-wildfires-in-2021/ numforecasts: 10; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 440 How big will be the first crew sent to Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 441 Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4745/dna-sequencing-read-length-5-mb-before-22/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 442 Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7784/egypt-ethiopia-water-war-before-2024/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 443 Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7504/2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 444 Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/ numforecasts: 211; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 445 What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 446 What will net U.S. geothermal electricity production be in the year 2026, in GWh? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7728/us-net-geothermal-electricity-by-2027/ numforecasts: 13; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 447 If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 448 Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 449 Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/ numforecasts: 349; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 450 When will there be a proof (or disproof) that P=BPP? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7879/date-of-proofdisproof-of-pbpp/ numforecasts: 10; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 451 By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 342; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 452 Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/ numforecasts: 190; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 453 Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/ numforecasts: 463; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 454 What will be China's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7005/gdp-of-china-for-2025/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 455 When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 456 Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/ numforecasts: 166; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 457 Will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7603/variant-of-high-consequence-before-aug-2022/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 458 What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 459 How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7897/us-happiness-ranking-from-2022-2024/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 460 When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 461 When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7766/us-elects-third-partyindependent-president/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 462 When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 463 When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/ numforecasts: 347; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 464 Will the next President of the United States be impeached? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/ numforecasts: 249; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 465 What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7865/virginia-booster-dose-in-2021/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 466 What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7617/va-overall-pop-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 467 Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/ numforecasts: 310; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 468 Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/ numforecasts: 187; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 469 How many paying customers will the most used romantic AI companion have by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7232/romantic-ai-companion-customers-by-2025/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 470 What will Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7383/peru-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 471 Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7492/sweden-to-have-extra-election-in-2021/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 472 When will Germany have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7218/when-germany-stops-burning-coal/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 473 How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/ numforecasts: 143; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 474 Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7792/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2026/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 475 When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7078/apple-m2-release-date/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 476 What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 477 When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 478 When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/ numforecasts: 319; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 479 Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6424/substack-to-join-cancel-culture/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 480 What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7797/lebanese-fragility-in-2022/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 481 Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/ numforecasts: 245; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 482 When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 483 When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 484 What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7858/south-african-fragility-in-2022/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 485 Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7542/over-200k-us-covid-daily-cases-by-2022/ numforecasts: 384; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 486 When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 487 How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7733/us-southwest-border-encounters-aug-dec-2021/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 488 Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7052/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 489 When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6969/when-will-gwp-exceed-1-quadrillion-usd/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 490 When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 491 How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/ numforecasts: 164; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 492 When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 493 Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/ numforecasts: 184; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 494 Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 495 When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 496 Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/ numforecasts: 337; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 497 Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7549/resolving-the-sunflower-conjecture/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 498 In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7136/7-day-avg-of-1-october-covid-tests-in-va/ numforecasts: 283; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 499 What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7367/total-retail-sales-september-2021/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 500 Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by 2028-07-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-2028-07-31/ numforecasts: 545; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 501 When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/ numforecasts: 156; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 502 What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/ numforecasts: 185; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 503 In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 504 Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 505 When will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7483/ai-artist-to-be-credited-in-shonen-jump/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 506 When will One Piece end? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 507 When will the first woman win the World Chess Championships? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7576/date-of-first-woman-world-championship-win/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 508 Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 509 In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7829/us-state-to-overturn-election-result-2024/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 510 When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7117/when-will-75-virginians-have-1-vaccine-dose/ numforecasts: 303; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 511 What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/ numforecasts: 120; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 512 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7423/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 513 When will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6839/first-openly-furry-us-official/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 514 Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/ numforecasts: 216; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 515 How many career points will LeBron James score in the NBA regular season when he retires? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7729/lebron-james-career-points/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 516 When will a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is successfully de-allergenized first be for sale in the United States or any European Union-member state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7042/us-allergy-free-wheatsoypeanut-before-eu/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 517 When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/ numforecasts: 293; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 518 Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6903/wta--atp-merger/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 519 When will Israel recognize Palestine? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7572/date-israel-recognises-palestine/ numforecasts: 73; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 520 By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7923/will-unvaccinated-patients-be-denied-icus/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 521 When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7286/1021-bytes-destroyed-by-single-event/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 522 When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7558/algorithm-for-factoring-in-polynomial-time/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 523 Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7841/non-bjp-indian-pm-before-2030/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 524 Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/ numforecasts: 249; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 525 How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 526 How high will the Haredi share of Israel's population be at its peak? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7571/haredi-share-of-israel-at-peak/ numforecasts: 144; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 527 What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by China by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by China occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7459/countervalue-detonations-by-china-by-2050/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 528 Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/ numforecasts: 719; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 529 What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 530 Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6427/will-gb-news-be-broadcasting-in-2025/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 531 When will at least 1% of people in any major city or country have experienced using augmented reality outside? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7543/when-will-ar-tech-be-widely-publicly-worn/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 532 What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 533 Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 534 What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 535 When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 536 Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7216/ai-sputnik-moment-by-2050/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 537 How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 538 How high will Germany's total dependency ratio be in 2039? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7431/germanys-future-age-structure/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 539 When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/ numforecasts: 440; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 540 How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7067/us-livestock-subsidization-between-2021-22/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 541 Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/ numforecasts: 494; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 542 What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 543 How many seats will the Scottish National Party win at the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7653/snp-seats-at-next-uk-election/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 544 Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/ numforecasts: 154; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 545 Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/usd-dominant-reserve-currency-in-2050/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 546 Will the Supreme Court hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7578/harvard-vs-sffa-in-supreme-court/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 547 Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7978/democrat-potus-signs-500g-budget-cut-by-2029/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 548 Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 549 What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6933/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 550 What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 551 When will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7508/10m-people-in-a-uk-biobank/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 552 Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7329/earth-government-by-2100/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 553 Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 554 Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7448/nasa-awards-2nd-hls-contract-in-2021/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 555 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7418/open-phil-ai-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 16; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 556 Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 557 What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/ numforecasts: 227; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 558 Robocup Challenge https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/ numforecasts: 322; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 559 Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7849/2024-us-house-midterm-election/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 560 What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7869/-va-mask-wearing-in-public-on-18-september/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 561 How many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7043/new-cultivated-meat-publications-by-2022/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 562 What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 563 Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/nanotechnology-gc-to-cause-near-extinction/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 564 When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 565 When will the US-EU border reopen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/ numforecasts: 218; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 566 How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7048/2022-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 567 Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 568 What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/ numforecasts: 387; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 569 Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 570 Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 571 When will the first human head transplant occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 572 Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 573 What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 574 Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444/elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 575 Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7523/exponential-improvement-on-diagonal-ramsey/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 576 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7039/2026-investment-in-plant-based-food-companies/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 577 Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 578 Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7635/new-va-covid-state-of-emergency/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 579 How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 580 When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 581 Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 582 When will NASA next land astronauts on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7721/date-of-next-nasa-moon-landing/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 583 What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7870/-va-pcr-test-positivity-on-18-september/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 584 When will the VIX index climb above 50? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 585 What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7621/peak--ili-in-va-during-2021-2022-flu-season/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 586 Will it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/paying-us-taxes-in-bitcoin/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 587 How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin by 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7445/us-states-decriminalizing-psilocybin-by-2027/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 588 50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how much earlier will historical consensus determine it came online? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7252/gap-between-agi-creation-and-reveal/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 589 What will the land area of Singapore be in 2070 in square kilometres? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7732/land-area-of-singapore/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 590 What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7775/2024-mens-100m-final/ numforecasts: 12; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 591 Kessler syndrome by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/ numforecasts: 583; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 592 Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/ numforecasts: 131; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 593 What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7060/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-foods-in-2022/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 594 Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 595 Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/ numforecasts: 281; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 596 What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/ numforecasts: 196; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 597 By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 598 Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7598/rootclaim-challenge-before-2025/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 599 Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/ numforecasts: 398; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 600 When will India become a World Bank high-income country? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 601 When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7788/australias-covid-19-vaccination-rollout/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 602 By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7969/fda-approval-of-covid-vaccine-for-kids-soon/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 603 What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/ numforecasts: 358; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 604 Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 605 When will the price of Bitcoin first drop below $6481, 10% of the all-time high value? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7469/bitcoin-price-drop-below-6481/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 606 When will North Korea become a democracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 607 Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 608 How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 609 Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 610 Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082/ghislaine-maxwell-a-reddit-power-user/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 611 Will the GOP control the senate after the 2024 election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7850/the-gop-controls-the-us-senate-in-2025/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 612 Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/ numforecasts: 189; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 613 Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 614 How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 615 How far away is the nearest independent origination of life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin-of-et-life/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 616 What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 617 What will public knowledge be in the year 2061 of the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7342/resolution-of-classified-us-satellites/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 618 Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 619 Will Metaculus exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 631; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 620 Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7063/3-year-livestock-subsidies-to-fall-by-2030/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 621 What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7369/cpi-u-september-2021/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 622 When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 623 Will Climeworks still exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 624 How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be at the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7462/deployed-nuclear-weapons-by-2024/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 625 Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7155/us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 626 How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7413/size-of-state-nuclear-arsenals-by-2024/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 627 Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 628 How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/ numforecasts: 216; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 629 What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 630 Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7106/carlsen-retains-the-world-championship-crown/ numforecasts: 140; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 631 Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 632 Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7722/nuclear-sharing-and-tpnw/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 633 When will the fraction of English books that mention"Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7111/when-will-peak-deep-learning-be/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 634 Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/ numforecasts: 251; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 635 By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 636 Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/ numforecasts: 479; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 637 What proportion of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7458/countervalue-detonations-by-the-us-by-2050/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 638 How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7247/customer-base-of-ai-assistants-in-2025/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 639 What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7510/countervalue-detonation-by-india-by-2050/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 640 If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/ numforecasts: 11; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 641 Before 2030, will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7384/alien-tech-in-solar-system-before-2030/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 642 If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 643 [Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/ numforecasts: 120; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 644 Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 645 How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 646 Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/ numforecasts: 426; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 647 Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 648 Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/ numforecasts: 646; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 649 Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/ numforecasts: 155; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 650 What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 651 If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 345; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 652 What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 653 When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 654 Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 655 What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7868/-va-current-hospitalizations-on-18-september/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 656 How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7546/deaths-from-covid-19-per-year-2022-2025-in-us/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 657 What percentage of seats will the PAP win in the next Singaporean general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7596/seats-won-by-the-pap-in-the-next-election/ numforecasts: 12; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 658 Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/ numforecasts: 373; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 659 When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 660 Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/ numforecasts: 895; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 661 What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/ numforecasts: 120; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 662 When will the James Webb telescope be launched? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7298/james-webb-telescope-launch-date/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 663 What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7822/va-vaccine-doses-administered-18-september/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 664 Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 665 How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 666 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7326/open-phil-donations-2025/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 667 If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 668 Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/ numforecasts: 1507; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 669 How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7464/black-carbon-in-troposphere-after-nuclear-war/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 670 In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/ numforecasts: 175; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 671 What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7607/-va-covid-deaths-in-va-lctfs/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 672 Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7976/acx-mention-question-resolves-ambiguous/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 673 Will US income inequality increase by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/ numforecasts: 238; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 674 Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/ numforecasts: 208; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 675 When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 676 By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7980/will-general-milley-leave-as-cjcos/ numforecasts: 11; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 677 If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 678 How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 679 How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7027/total-refugee-admissions-2021-24/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 680 When will Afghanistan allow same-sex marriage? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7873/legality-of-same-sex-marriage-in-afghanistan/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 681 What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 682 Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7113/fully-autonomous-tesla-in-2021/ numforecasts: 136; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 683 When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/ numforecasts: 313; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 684 Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/ numforecasts: 637; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 685 Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/ numforecasts: 454; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 686 Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7828/projected-election-winner-isnt-president-2025/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 687 Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7899/will-erin-otoole-be-the-next-pm-of-canada/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 688 What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 689 How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 690 Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 691 Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/ numforecasts: 359; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 692 When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 693 What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/ numforecasts: 812; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 694 Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/ numforecasts: 177; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 695 What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 696 When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7806/when-airplane-travelers-mask-free-in-usa/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 697 What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 698 Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 699 When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, "I Want My Hat Back"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/ numforecasts: 342; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 700 Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/ numforecasts: 398; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 701 When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7064/5-cultivated-meat-products-sell-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 702 If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7332/money-offered-through-ea-prize-platform/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 703 When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 704 Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/ numforecasts: 727; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 705 Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6554/astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question/ numforecasts: 211; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 706 Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/ numforecasts: 438; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 707 When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/ numforecasts: 353; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 708 What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7864/k-12-outbreaks-in-virginia-for-sep-12-18/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 709 Will US CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7977/high-inflation-in-2022/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 710 When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/ numforecasts: 449; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 711 When will China legalise same-sex marriage? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 712 If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/ numforecasts: 833; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 713 By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/ numforecasts: 240; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 714 When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7611/date-of-covid-vaccine-for-children-under-12/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 715 Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/ numforecasts: 193; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 716 How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7909/-virginians-in-leisurehospitality-dec-2021/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 717 Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 718 How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 719 Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7468/major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 720 How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7908/how-many-flights-will-ingenuity-make/ numforecasts: 10; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 721 Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 137; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 722 If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/ numforecasts: 217; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 723 Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/ numforecasts: 382; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 724 Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ numforecasts: 1218; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 725 Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 726 What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/ numforecasts: 205; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 727 When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/date-china-gathers-1b-citizen-genomes/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 728 Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6885/tennis-at-the-2044-olympics/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 729 Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 730 Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7547/livestock-farming-ban-by-2041/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 731 Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/ numforecasts: 315; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 732 Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7537/250-deathsday-in-uk-third-wave/ numforecasts: 273; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 733 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based meat companies in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7051/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-meat/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 734 When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7625/date-of-va-covid-hospitalizations-peak/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 735 In how many of the 50 US states will it be legal to use psilocybin for therapy by December the 31st 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7911/psilocybin-as-a-new-drug-therapy-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 12; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 736 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based milk companies in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7047/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-milk/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 737 What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7061/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-eggs-in-2022/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 738 Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/ numforecasts: 1013; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 739 What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 740 When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 741 What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7618/va-18-24-age-group-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/ numforecasts: 244; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 742 How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7634/-va-eviction-cases-filed-in-q4-2021/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 743 When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7595/singapore-international-travel-reopens/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 744 How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7867/-va-districts-in-surge-as-of-17-september/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 745 How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 746 When will space mining be profitable? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 747 If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/ numforecasts: 194; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 748 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7050/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 749 When will the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) be disproved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7630/disproving-seth/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 750 Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/ numforecasts: 274; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 751 What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/ numforecasts: 426; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 752 What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7624/va-covid-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 753 Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/ numforecasts: 199; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 754 Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/ numforecasts: 215; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 755 Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 756 Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 757 What will be the best proven upper bound on the infimum of S in 2120? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8010/best-asymptotic-upper-bound-on-mertens-func/ numforecasts: 11; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 758 How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 759 What will be India's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7004/gdp-of-india-for-2025/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 760 What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 761 What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 762 Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7382/non-transitory-inflation-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 763 When will the Woke index in US elite media top? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 764 What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 765 How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 766 Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7109/bitcoin-consensus-mechanism-by-2035/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 767 Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/ numforecasts: 541; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 768 How many members will the next Bundestag have? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7739/size-of-the-2021-german-bundestag/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 769 Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 770 What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7622/va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 771 When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 772 Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7138/boris-johnson-uk-pm-in-2022/ numforecasts: 235; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 773 When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7623/date-of-va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 774 When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7627/date-of-va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 775 When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 776 Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/ numforecasts: 1515; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 777 Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/ numforecasts: 252; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 778 Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ numforecasts: 5344; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 779 Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/ numforecasts: 381; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 780 Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/ numforecasts: 293; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 781 What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 782 What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/ numforecasts: 415; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 783 Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 784 When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ numforecasts: 452; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 785 What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/ numforecasts: 285; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 786 Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 787 When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7019/world-over-1-million-covid-daily-cases/ numforecasts: 114; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 788 How many seats will the Conservative Party win at the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7651/conservative-seats-at-next-uk-election/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 789 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7424/open-phil-global-health-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 790 Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/ numforecasts: 369; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 791 Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/ numforecasts: 306; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 792 What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 793 If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 794 When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7024/ai-to-beat-humans-on-metaculus/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 795 What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7606/attendance-at-2021-uva-vs-virginia-tech-game/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 796 What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 797 What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/ numforecasts: 169; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 798 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7421/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 799 Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/ numforecasts: 143; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 800 When will AIs program programs that can program AIs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/ numforecasts: 559; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 801 Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/ numforecasts: 318; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 802 Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/ numforecasts: 242; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 803 Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/ numforecasts: 188; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 804 How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/ numforecasts: 12; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 805 How high will China's total dependency ratio be in 2039? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7430/china-demographic-dependency/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 806 What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 807 In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 808 Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 809 Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 810 Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 811 Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/ numforecasts: 353; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 812 When will the first use of accurate lie detection in court case occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6619/first-accurate-lie-detection-in-court-case/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 813 Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 814 When will Amazon deliver some products by drone? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 815 Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 816 Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/ numforecasts: 434; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 817 How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 818 How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 819 How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 820 What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7370/eia-crude-oil-stock-september-2021/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 821 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7428/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 822 Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7740/marijuana-legalization-in-republican-states/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 823 Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 824 World Population in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/ numforecasts: 328; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 825 Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/ numforecasts: 212; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 826 What will be the average age of new motherhood in the U.S. in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7637/new-motherhood-age-in-2050-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 827 How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/ numforecasts: 798; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 828 Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 829 When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/ numforecasts: 175; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 830 How many communist states will there be in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 831 When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/ numforecasts: 446; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 832 Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 833 Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 834 Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 835 What will the global fertility rate be in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 836 When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6956/first-circumlunar-human-spacex-flight/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 837 Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 838 How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 839 Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 840 How large will Monaco be in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 841 How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7045/-pigs-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 842 When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/ numforecasts: 140; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 843 Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack by 2033? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7591/ghouta-chemical-attack/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 844 What will South Africa's GDP per capita PPP be in 2030 (in constant 2017 USD)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7531/south-africa-gdp-per-capita-in-2030/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 845 How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 846 In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 847 When will 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales exceed 50 million units per year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7548/when-will-vrar-sell-50-million-per-year/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 848 Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/ numforecasts: 1081; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 849 Will the next US recession turn into a depression? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/ numforecasts: 381; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 850 How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 851 Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7539/date-our-future-simulates-us-first-guesses/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 852 Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7056/will-mcdonalds-offer-cultivated-meat-first/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 853 What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7826/k-12-outbreaks-in-virginia-for-sep-5-11/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 854 What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7365/us-building-permits/ numforecasts: 144; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 855 Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/ numforecasts: 213; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 856 Will AI progress surprise us? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/ numforecasts: 615; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 857 When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7031/first-commercial-polygenic-embryo-screening/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 858 When will China officially cease to be a socialist state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 859 What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7379/lowest-e-mini-sp-closing-value-in-september/ numforecasts: 130; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 860 Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/ numforecasts: 1253; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 861 Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/ numforecasts: 293; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 862 Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7597/milton-convicted-on-federal-fraud-charges/ numforecasts: 16; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 863 What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 864 Which fraction of the German population will have a migration background in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7532/fraction-germany-migration-background/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 865 Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 866 Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 867 Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6801/dukedom-of-sussex-divorce-by-march-8-2022/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 868 Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/ numforecasts: 190; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 869 What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/ numforecasts: 379; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 870 What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 871 How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7396/ea-forum-value-drift-2026/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 872 How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2030 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7195/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2030/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 873 Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/ numforecasts: 206; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 874 How much global warming by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/ numforecasts: 563; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 875 Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7037/korean-reunification-by-2045/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 876 What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 877 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7422/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 878 Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7316/exascale-connectome-mapped-by-june-2031/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 879 Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/ numforecasts: 461; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 880 Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 881 What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7363/us-durable-goods-orders-august-2021/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 882 Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/ numforecasts: 468; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 883 What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 884 Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7575/2024-taiwanese-presidential-election/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 885 When will be the next S&P 500 correction? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 886 If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/ numforecasts: 164; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 887 Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/ numforecasts: 219; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 888 How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7066/-countries-to-sell-cultivated-meat-by-2023/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 889 What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 890 Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 891 When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 892 If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 893 What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 894 Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/ numforecasts: 165; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 895 Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/ numforecasts: 190; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 896 When will there be a human fatality during travel to or from a heavenly body? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7670/first-death-in-extraplanetary-space-travel/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 897 Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/ numforecasts: 296; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 898 What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 899 When will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7251/1000-transactions-per-second-in-ethereum/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 900 What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7626/va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 901 What proportion of the well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7055/prop-of-qsr-with-cultivated-meat-in-2026/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 902 In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7124/monthly-peak-in-new-covid-cases-in-virginia/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 903 When will President Teodoro Obiang leave office in Equatorial Guinea? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7581/equatorial-guineas-obiang-exit-date/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 904 BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 905 The end of the EU as we know it by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/ numforecasts: 996; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 906 When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 907 When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 908 Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/ numforecasts: 181; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 909 Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ numforecasts: 211; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 910 How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win at the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7652/lib-dem-seats-at-next-uk-election/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 911 When will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7025/when-will-insects-replace-fishmeal/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 912 How much higher will peer-reviewed U.S. methane emission measurements be compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s reported measurements in any 12 month period between 2021-2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7343/accuracy-of-epas-methane-emissions/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 913 Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 914 Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ numforecasts: 202; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 915 Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/ numforecasts: 281; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 916 Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 917 Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 918 Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 919 What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7506/return-for-vgt-if-agi-arrives-by-2040/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 920 Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 921 What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 922 When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 923 How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7834/us-happiness-ranking-from-2020-2022/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 924 Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 925 Who will first land a person on Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/ numforecasts: 278; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 926 When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7615/vaccination-rate-ratio-black-virginians/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 927 When will the world create the first Trillionaire? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/ numforecasts: 398; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 928 When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7602/date-new-variant-overtakes-delta-in-virginia/ numforecasts: 107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 929 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7419/open-phil-ai-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 930 What will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7038/plant-based-meat-production-capacity-2030/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 931 Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 932 When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 933 Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 934 What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 935 When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7501/date-twin-prime-conjecture-is-resolved/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 936 What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/ numforecasts: 130; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 937 Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 938 When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 939 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 940 When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 941 In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 942 Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 943 Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/ numforecasts: 406; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 944 Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 945 Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/ numforecasts: 156; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 946 Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 947 What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 948 What day will Solar Cycle 25 end? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 949 In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 950 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7426/open-phil-bio-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 951 Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 952 How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 953 If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/ numforecasts: 209; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 954 Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/ numforecasts: 304; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 955 What will be the largest grouping of stars in the Milky Way, in the year 1 billion, that don't seem to be militarily hostile to each other? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7574/biggest-peaceful-star-group-in-year-1-billion/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 956 When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7324/date-of-sputnik-v-who-approval/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 957 How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 958 Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7291/elizabeth-holmes-convicted-of-theranos-fraud/ numforecasts: 209; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 959 When will GTA VI be released in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 960 Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7068/meat-or-dairy-tax-in-the-us-or-eu-by-2023/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 961 When will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6812/first-autonomous-motorcycle-to-be-sold-in-usa/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 962 Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 963 If the EU bans all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens, what date will be set as the phase out deadline? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7496/when-will-the-eu-phase-out-cages/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 964 When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/ numforecasts: 553; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 965 What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 966 Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/ numforecasts: 439; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 967 How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7199/cost-to-store-1-tb-on-google-archive-2025/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 968 What will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 969 What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 970 How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 971 When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 972 In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 973 Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 974 When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/ numforecasts: 301; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 975 Will Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 976 Will the first AGI be based on deep learning? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 977 Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/ numforecasts: 237; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 978 What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 979 On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7163/variant-of-high-consequence-before-2025/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 980 Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335/internet-freedom-to-decline-until-2025/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 981 When will India send their first own astronauts to space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/ numforecasts: 293; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 982 How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/ numforecasts: 220; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 983 Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/ numforecasts: 460; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 984 When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/ numforecasts: 345; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 985 Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/ numforecasts: 194; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 986 Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 987 When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 988 What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 989 What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/ numforecasts: 355; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 990 When will COVID-19 be eradicated? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7601/covid-19-eradication/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 991 After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 992 What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 993 When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 994 How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 995 What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 996 What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/ numforecasts: 381; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 997 Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 998 If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 999 Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7481/sp-500-to-move-more-than-15-in-day-by-2030/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1000 Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7569/peak-deaths-from--wave-worse-in-uk-or-us/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1001 When will Good Ventures first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7336/good-ventures-donations-5-of-assets/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1002 Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1003 If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/ numforecasts: 178; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1004 What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1005 When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1006 Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/ numforecasts: 302; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1007 Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1008 When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/ numforecasts: 211; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1009 Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1010 Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/ numforecasts: 331; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1011 What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1012 How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7620/new-covid-outbreaks-in-va-ltcfs/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1013 When will the first human be born on another world? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1014 Will Trump flee the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/ numforecasts: 183; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1015 What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1016 Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/ numforecasts: 510; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1017 When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/ numforecasts: 186; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1018 Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1019 Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1020 Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1021 How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/ numforecasts: 145; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1022 Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/ numforecasts: 202; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1023 Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6602/two-more-tbc-transit-systems--2030/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1024 Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1025 How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1026 In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1027 Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1028 Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1029 What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7619/va-12-15-yo-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/ numforecasts: 290; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1030 Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1031 Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1032 How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1033 How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1034 What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7655/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us-full-range/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1035 When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1036 How many annual deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections will have been estimated by the CDC to occurred in 2021 in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7046/-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1037 Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/ numforecasts: 243; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1038 What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/ numforecasts: 224; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1039 Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/ numforecasts: 168; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1040 Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1041 By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1042 Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1043 Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/ numforecasts: 156; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1044 When will a Neanderthal be born again? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7479/bringing-back-the-neanderthal/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1045 Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1046 Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1047 How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1048 If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1049 When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7234/hsv-1-vaccine-approved-by-fda/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1050 Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/ numforecasts: 219; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1051 When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1052 Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1053 When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1054 If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/ numforecasts: 230; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1055 Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/ numforecasts: 1139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1056 Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1057 What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1058 Will Iowa host another "first in the nation" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/ numforecasts: 124; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1059 When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1060 What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7296/chinese-yuan--of-cofer-q42031/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1061 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1062 Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1063 Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/ numforecasts: 332; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1064 When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1065 How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1066 What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1067 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 196; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1068 Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1069 What will the fed funds rate be by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7439/u-s-interest-rate-policy/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1070 Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1071 How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/ numforecasts: 346; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1072 What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/ numforecasts: 157; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1073 When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1074 When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1075 Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1076 What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1077 Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1078 Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/ numforecasts: 368; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1079 Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1080 Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1081 As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1082 LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4251/lrt-22-as-of-monday-april-27th-how-many-total-cumulative-sars-cov-2-infections-including-all-symptomatic-subclinical-and-asymptomatic-infections-have-there-been-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 157; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1083 Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1084 If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1085 How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1086 Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1087 How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1088 How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1089 How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7018/agi-before-or-after-gwp-growth-rate-of-25/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1090 What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1091 If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1092 When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1093 When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1094 Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1095 When will the first human mission to Venus take place? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1096 What will be the largest real Gross World Product for the period 2020 through 1000002200, in trillions of 2020 US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7662/largest-gwp-in-the-next-billion-years/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1097 Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/ numforecasts: 203; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1098 Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/ numforecasts: 245; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1099 Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1100 Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1101 Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/ numforecasts: 215; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1102 Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1103 When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7032/awards-for-contributions-related-to-covid19/ numforecasts: 144; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1104 What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1105 What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1106 Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1107 What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7638/-reduction-in-deltas-secondary-transmission/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1108 What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1109 When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1110 Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1111 Will online poker die by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1112 When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1113 In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7126/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-covid-deaths/ numforecasts: 157; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1114 Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1115 A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/ numforecasts: 341; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1116 How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/ numforecasts: 298; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1117 When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1118 What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1119 When will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6662/date-earth-functional-satellites-exceed-5000/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1120 Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1121 Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1122 Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1123 Will a new land speed record be set by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/ numforecasts: 162; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1124 A S&P500 tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/tech-boom-beyond-dotcom-bubble-before-2025/ numforecasts: 306; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1125 Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/ numforecasts: 186; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1126 Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1127 Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/ numforecasts: 213; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1128 When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/ numforecasts: 185; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1129 Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1130 Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/ numforecasts: 225; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1131 When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1132 On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/ numforecasts: 398; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1133 How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/ numforecasts: 237; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1134 When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7226/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1135 Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1136 Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1137 What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7374/us-gdp-growth-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1138 Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7644/asat-weapons-tests-and-space-debris-by-2023/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1139 When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/ numforecasts: 147; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1140 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7425/open-phil-global-health-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1141 Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/ numforecasts: 131; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1142 How high will the U.S.' total dependency ratio be in 2039? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7432/united-states-future-age-structure/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1143 If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1144 When will the first YouTube star – famous FIRST because of YouTube stardom – be elected to Congress? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1446/when-will-the-first-youtube-star--famous-first-because-of-youtube-stardom--be-elected-to-congress/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1145 What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1146 How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/ numforecasts: 195; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1147 Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1148 Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 before 2121? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7207/bitcoin-to-fall-to-near-zero-by-2121/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1149 When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1150 How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1151 Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1152 Tesla's 2025 vehicle production? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1153 Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by "the left" or by "the right"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1154 Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/ numforecasts: 323; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1155 Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/ numforecasts: 442; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1156 Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1157 Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1158 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 254; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1159 Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1160 Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/ numforecasts: 298; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1161 What will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7070/age-adjusted-mortality-rate-in-uk-in-2051/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1162 What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1163 Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/ numforecasts: 266; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1164 Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1165 What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/ numforecasts: 221; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1166 By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/ numforecasts: 281; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1167 How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1168 When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1169 How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1170 When will Nate Silver release his 2nd book? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7012/release-date-of-nate-silvers-2nd-book/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1171 Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1172 How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1173 How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1174 When will Blue Origin's "New Glenn" rocket complete its first successful test flight? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1175 What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1176 How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7107/cost-to-deliver-1kg-to-mars-in-2075/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1177 How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1705/how-much-concern-about-climate-change-will-exist-in-2025-according-to-google-trends/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1178 When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1179 Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7565/recurring-lockdowns-during-2030-2050/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1180 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7427/open-phil-bio-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1181 When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1182 When will commercial supersonic flight return? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/ numforecasts: 348; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1183 Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7442/geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1184 Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1185 Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/ numforecasts: 177; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1186 What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1187 What will Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions be in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7093/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2050/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1188 What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/ numforecasts: 107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1189 Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/ numforecasts: 247; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1190 What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1191 Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/ numforecasts: 403; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1192 Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1193 How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/ numforecasts: 145; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1194 What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Russia by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Russia occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7456/countervalue-detonations-by-russia-by-2050/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1195 Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1196 Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7231/global-trade-exceeds-61-of-gwp-by-2026/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1197 How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1198 How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1199 Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1200 Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1201 Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1202 When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1203 Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7434/psiquantum-computer-by-2025/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1204 Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7406/fatal-non-state-nuclear-detonation-by-2030/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1205 Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/ numforecasts: 349; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1206 Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1207 Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/ numforecasts: 135; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1208 Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/ numforecasts: 107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1209 What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1210 What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1211 When will be the next "Great Power" war? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/ numforecasts: 199; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1212 At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1213 Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/ numforecasts: 347; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1214 Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1215 Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1216 When will the first company list on the Long-Term Stock Exchange? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7141/first-company-on-the-long-term-stock-exchange/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1217 Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1218 Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/ numforecasts: 863; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1219 Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/ numforecasts: 433; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1220 When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1221 Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/ numforecasts: 195; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1222 Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7408/next-nuclear-detonation-after-conflict/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1223 Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1224 On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/ numforecasts: 251; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1225 What will SpaceX be worth by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/ numforecasts: 452; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1226 How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1227 How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/ numforecasts: 265; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1228 On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/ numforecasts: 261; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1229 Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1230 What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1231 When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1232 Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1233 When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1234 What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1235 When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1236 Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1237 How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1238 How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1239 Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/ numforecasts: 403; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1240 Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/ numforecasts: 243; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1241 Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/ numforecasts: 291; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1242 When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/ numforecasts: 107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1243 When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1244 Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1245 When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1246 Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/ numforecasts: 247; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1247 What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1248 When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1249 What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1250 How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/ numforecasts: 212; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1251 Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1252 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7327/open-phil-donations-2030/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1253 When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/ numforecasts: 261; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1254 Will we reach the island of stability by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/ numforecasts: 212; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1255 What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1256 With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/ numforecasts: 272; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1257 When will the last US casino close? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6893/date-when-the-last-us-casino-will-close/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1258 How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1259 Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ numforecasts: 311; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1260 Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's "Dark Was the Night" on Voyager I's Golden Record? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1261 Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/ numforecasts: 229; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1262 What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/ numforecasts: 156; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1263 Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1264 Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6887/jannik-sinner-first-gen-x-slam-winner/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1265 Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1266 Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1267 If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/ numforecasts: 246; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1268 Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/ numforecasts: 290; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1269 What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1270 Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/ numforecasts: 278; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1271 If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1272 When will the next interstellar object be discovered? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1273 Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1274 When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1275 Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/ numforecasts: 263; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1276 When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1277 What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1278 Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1279 What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 137; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1280 Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/ numforecasts: 275; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1281 Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/ numforecasts: 776; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1282 Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/ numforecasts: 144; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1283 When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/ numforecasts: 489; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1284 How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1285 When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/ numforecasts: 317; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1286 How many people will take the EA survey in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7317/ea-survey-responses-2025/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1287 When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1288 Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1289 What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1290 Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6967/soylent-and-health/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1291 When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/ numforecasts: 407; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1292 Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1293 Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1294 What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7389/biden--trump-us-google-search-ratio-q3-2022/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1295 What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1296 When will an AI pass the laugh test? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1297 When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/ numforecasts: 220; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1298 When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/ numforecasts: 225; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1299 When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1300 Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072/breakaway-soccer-league-by-2030/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1301 When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/ numforecasts: 412; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1302 Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/ numforecasts: 352; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1303 In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/ numforecasts: 149; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1304 How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1305 What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1306 Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/ numforecasts: 229; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1307 If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1308 Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1309 What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1310 What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7161/cumulative-us-covid-deaths-by-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1311 Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/ numforecasts: 301; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1312 Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/ numforecasts: 196; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1313 What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7062/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-meats-in-2022/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1314 What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1315 When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/ numforecasts: 233; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1316 Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/ numforecasts: 626; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1317 If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6980/gpt-4-or-similar-public-by-end-of-2022/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1318 Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7333/no-us-stock-exchange-for-1-year-by-2120/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1319 The End of NAFTA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/ numforecasts: 259; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1320 When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1321 Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1322 What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 168; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1323 What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/ numforecasts: 245; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1324 Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1325 Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1326 Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6" (or higher) before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6973/nba-raising-the-rim-by-2030/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1327 When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1054/when-will-the-indian-neutrino-observatory-ino-definitely-spot-its-first-neutrinos/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1328 Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1329 What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/ numforecasts: 124; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1330 Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/569/solar-storm-shield-begun-by-2025/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1331 Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/ numforecasts: 379; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1332 If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1333 By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1334 How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1335 How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1336 What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1337 Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1338 Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/ numforecasts: 574; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1339 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6975/2025-donations-to-cause-prioritization/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1340 What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility be, by January 1st, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7036/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2023/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1341 What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1342 Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/ numforecasts: 495; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1343 When will the 10,000th human reach space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1344 When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1345 Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1346 Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1347 Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1348 Are we in a simulated reality? Part II https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/ numforecasts: 451; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1349 When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1350 Will humans go extinct by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/ numforecasts: 793; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1351 What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1352 Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/ numforecasts: 418; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1353 What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1354 Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/ numforecasts: 207; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1355 Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/ numforecasts: 865; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1356 What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7307/cumulative-us-covid-deaths-by-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1357 Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-ftx/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1358 When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1359 How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7044/-cattle-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1360 Will Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitfinex/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1361 Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1362 When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1363 In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7125/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-hospitalizations/ numforecasts: 135; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1364 Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1365 How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1366 When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5644/long-term-h20-capture-in-inner-solar-system/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1367 Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1368 If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7402/war-between-russia-and-the-us-by-2050/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1369 How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1370 Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1371 How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1372 Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1373 Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1374 Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/ numforecasts: 212; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1375 What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1376 When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/ numforecasts: 246; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1377 Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099/silg-to-survive-the-mid-term/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1378 What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/ numforecasts: 217; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1379 When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/ numforecasts: 1028; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1380 How many NASA "space launch system" (SLS) launches before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/ numforecasts: 223; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1381 Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7323/semaglutide-in-top-300-us-meds-before-2032/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1382 When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1383 How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1384 Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1385 By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/ numforecasts: 291; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1386 At what point will at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" be released to the public? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1387 What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1388 How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1389 Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1390 Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/ numforecasts: 166; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1391 Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1392 When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1393 Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/ numforecasts: 239; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1394 How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7213/highest-paid-dead-celebrity-in-2021/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1395 2˚C global warming by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/ numforecasts: 400; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1396 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/ numforecasts: 305; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1397 What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1398 What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1399 Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1400 Tunnel vs. Wall https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/tunnel-vs-wall/ numforecasts: 567; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1401 What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1402 What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1403 What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/ numforecasts: 368; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1404 What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1405 What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4790/elon-musks-net-worth-at-the-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1406 When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1407 Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1408 When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1409 If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1410 Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/ numforecasts: 242; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1411 When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1412 Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1413 What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1414 Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/ numforecasts: 571; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1415 Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1416 What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1417 Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/ numforecasts: 190; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1418 Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1419 What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6165/number-of-us-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1420 Artificial drivers, real roads vs. real drivers, artificial roads https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/artificial-drives-real-roads-vs-real-drivers-artificial-roads/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1421 Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/ numforecasts: 351; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1422 How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1423 What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/ numforecasts: 1782; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1424 When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1425 Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1426 Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ numforecasts: 149; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1427 Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1428 What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1429 Will the US supreme court change size by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/ numforecasts: 248; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1430 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1431 Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1432 If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/ numforecasts: 659; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1433 What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1434 Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/ numforecasts: 367; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1435 Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1436 How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1437 Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7010/mixed-doubles-at-all-slams-in-2040/ numforecasts: 11; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1438 Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/ numforecasts: 571; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1439 What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1440 When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1441 When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1442 When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1443 What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1444 Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1445 What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7373/us-building-permits-september-2021/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1446 Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1447 Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/ numforecasts: 323; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1448 When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1449 Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/ numforecasts: 202; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1450 How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1451 What will be the highest US debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4679/what-will-be-the-highest-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-the-end-of-2023/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1452 What will be the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7344/resolution-of-commercial-satellites-in-2050/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1453 How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1454 By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1455 Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/ numforecasts: 240; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1456 Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1457 What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/ numforecasts: 147; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1458 What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1459 How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1460 If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1461 Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/ numforecasts: 378; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1462 Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/ numforecasts: 273; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1463 By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1464 Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1465 Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/ numforecasts: 240; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1466 By 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year in a single conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6940/10k-us-conflict-deaths-in-1-year-by-2030/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1467 When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7033/hashing-with-biocomputers/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1468 When will the next Qatari general election be held? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1469 On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1470 How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1471 How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1472 What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the U.S. in 2022 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7059/2022-retail-market-share-of-plant-based-milk/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1473 When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/ numforecasts: 237; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1474 What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1475 What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7328/global-democracy-share-2040/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1476 What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1477 When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/ numforecasts: 175; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1478 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6976/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-meta-charities/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1479 When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/ numforecasts: 316; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1480 When will The Simpsons air its final episode? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/807/when-will-the-simpsons-air-its-final-episode/ numforecasts: 165; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1481 Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1482 Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288/somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1483 Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1484 When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1485 Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/ numforecasts: 260; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1486 Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/ numforecasts: 262; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1487 What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/ numforecasts: 237; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1488 The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1489 When will workplaces reach baseline level in the state of Virginia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7137/va-workplace-activity-reach-baseline-lvl/ numforecasts: 262; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1490 Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1491 Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1492 Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1493 Will China land the next person on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1494 Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1495 When will Sabaton release their tenth album? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7204/tenth-sabaton-album/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1496 When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/ numforecasts: 235; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1497 While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1498 Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1499 If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/ numforecasts: 257; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1500 What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1501 What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1502 Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7097/family-planning-charity-in-2021/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1503 Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/ numforecasts: 208; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1504 Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1505 When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1506 Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1507 When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/ numforecasts: 183; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1508 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 181; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1509 On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1510 When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1511 Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/ numforecasts: 276; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1512 Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1513 What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1514 How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1515 Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1516 When will North Korea have a McDonald's? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/ numforecasts: 136; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1517 In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1518 If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1519 Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1520 When will the US-Canada border reopen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7108/us-canada-border-to-reopen/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1521 What will the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7081/carbon-capture-and-storage-potential-in-2030/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1522 What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1523 Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1524 How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ numforecasts: 160; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1525 When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7443/when-will-the-us-allow-travel-from-the-uk/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1526 Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1527 When will the Flamanville EPR be finished? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1528 Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1529 Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1530 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6978/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-long-term-future/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1531 How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6891/migrant-deaths-in-the-mediterranean-in-2022/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1532 Will we find life on Mars by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1533 How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/ numforecasts: 164; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1534 Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1535 When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/ numforecasts: 136; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1536 What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1537 Will the world population increase every year for the next decade? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/ numforecasts: 2107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1538 What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7242/usd--of-cofer-q42021/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1539 Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1540 When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1541 When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/ numforecasts: 228; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1542 By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1543 How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/ numforecasts: 131; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1544 What will unemployment be in the US in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/ numforecasts: 558; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1545 How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1546 Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1547 When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1548 Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/ numforecasts: 261; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1549 How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1550 How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1551 Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 124; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1552 Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/ numforecasts: 239; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1553 Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1554 When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1555 What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1556 When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1557 How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1558 How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/ numforecasts: 449; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1559 How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1560 Will any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7054/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2028/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1561 Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1562 Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1563 What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1564 How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1565 What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1566 How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1567 Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/ numforecasts: 143; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1568 What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7400/us-durable-goods-orders-september-2021/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1569 What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/ numforecasts: 232; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1570 What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1571 Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/ numforecasts: 380; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1572 By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1573 When will the first baby be born away from Earth? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1574 When will PHP die? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1575 Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1576 What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1577 By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1578 Balloons to the edge of space – when? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/441/balloons-to-the-edge-of-space--when/ numforecasts: 136; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1579 Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1580 What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1581 Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1582 When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1583 Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/ numforecasts: 615; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1584 When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1585 Will chess be "weakly solved" by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/ numforecasts: 343; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1586 Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1587 50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/ numforecasts: 168; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1588 Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1589 How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1590 How will Joe Biden rank among presidents? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1591 What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1592 What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1593 What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1594 What will be the US MSRP of lowest priced Tesla in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7002/lowest-us-msrp-of-2030-tesla/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1595 Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1596 Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1597 What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1598 When will there be at least one billion Americans? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1599 What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1600 When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1601 Will the Universe end? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/ numforecasts: 605; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1602 What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/ numforecasts: 13; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1603 Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1604 Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/ numforecasts: 73; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1605 When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1606 What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1607 In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1608 What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1609 When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1610 When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1611 How much money will GiveWell move in 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1612 Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1613 A major United States earthquake by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/ numforecasts: 804; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1614 Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/ numforecasts: 254; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1615 What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/ numforecasts: 180; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1616 When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1617 What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1618 When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/ numforecasts: 341; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1619 When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1620 If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1621 How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ numforecasts: 170; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1622 Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1623 How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1624 Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1625 Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/ numforecasts: 486; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1626 How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1627 What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1628 What will be the EU's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7011/eu-gdp-in-2025/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1629 What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1630 What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 227; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1631 What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1632 Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1633 Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1634 When will the first exaflop performer appear? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/ numforecasts: 147; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1635 Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/ numforecasts: 135; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1636 Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/ numforecasts: 405; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1637 When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1638 What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/ numforecasts: 562; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1639 Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1640 Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1641 When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1642 When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1643 Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1644 A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/ numforecasts: 178; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1645 When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ numforecasts: 207; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1646 Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/ numforecasts: 140; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1647 Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1648 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/ numforecasts: 798; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1649 When will the world have reached peak Facebook? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1650 Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1651 When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6448/two-states-ban-human-driven-vehicles/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1652 When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1653 What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1654 What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1655 Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/ numforecasts: 246; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1656 Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7314/50by40-meat-production-goal-achieved/ numforecasts: 154; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1657 Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1658 Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1659 Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1660 When will Xi Jinping leave power in China? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/ numforecasts: 157; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1661 Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/ numforecasts: 238; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1662 When will a performer win a 4th Oscar for Acting? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6982/date-next-performer-wins-4th-oscar/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1663 Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1664 What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1665 What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1666 Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1667 When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1668 Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1669 What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1670 When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1671 Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/ numforecasts: 407; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1672 How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ numforecasts: 143; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1673 Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1674 When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1675 Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1676 How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1677 What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1678 Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1679 When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1680 For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1681 Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1682 Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1683 Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/ numforecasts: 319; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1684 When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1685 What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1686 When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1687 How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1688 When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/ numforecasts: 653; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1689 Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/ numforecasts: 523; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1690 When will the next man win his 10th tennis slam title? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6888/10-grand-slam-winner/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1691 When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1692 Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/ numforecasts: 262; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1693 How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1694 When will we have a new Pope? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1695 If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1696 Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/ numforecasts: 710; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1697 When will the next human being walk on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 321; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1698 Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/ numforecasts: 164; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1699 How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1700 Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/ numforecasts: 185; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1701 How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/ numforecasts: 147; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1702 Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/ numforecasts: 185; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1703 When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1704 When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1705 Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1706 Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/ numforecasts: 397; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1707 How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1708 Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/ numforecasts: 276; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1709 When will a fusion reactor reach ignition? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1710 When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1711 Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/ numforecasts: 181; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1712 Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/ numforecasts: 303; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1713 How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/ numforecasts: 135; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1714 What will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7007/gdp-of-the-world-for-2025/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1715 Who will win the 'worm wars'? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1716 Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/ numforecasts: 261; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1717 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1718 Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1719 Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1720 Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/ numforecasts: 271; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1721 What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1722 When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1723 Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1724 What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1725 What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1726 When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1727 What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1728 If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6939/will-gpt-3-scaling-plateau-in--3-ooms/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1729 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1730 What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1731 What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1732 When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1733 What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1734 How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/ numforecasts: 373; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1735 Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1736 How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/ numforecasts: 203; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1737 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1738 Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/ numforecasts: 642; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1739 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/ numforecasts: 319; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1740 How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1741 Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/ numforecasts: 296; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1742 When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1743 When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1744 Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/ numforecasts: 556; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1745 Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1746 Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/ numforecasts: 485; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1747 How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1748 Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/ numforecasts: 223; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1749 Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1750 How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1751 When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1752 Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/ numforecasts: 309; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1753 Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1754 What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1755 Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1756 When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1757 Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6442/cd-projekt-cdr-and-the-climb-to-z%25C5%258246420/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1758 Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1759 Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/ numforecasts: 418; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1760 What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1761 When will the United States admit a new state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/ numforecasts: 193; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1762 Assuming that the Green Party joins the federal government following the German federal elections on September 26th, 2021, what will be German per capita CO2 emissions in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6652/co2-emissions-in-germany-in-2025-greens/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1763 When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1764 What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1765 Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1766 When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1767 Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/ numforecasts: 570; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1768 Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1769 Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/ numforecasts: 207; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1770 Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1771 Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1772 Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/ numforecasts: 201; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1773 What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1774 What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7196/total-us-private-equity-deals-2022/ numforecasts: 10; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1775 What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1776 If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1777 When will zettascale computing be achieved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6353/zettascale-computing-when/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1778 When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1779 Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/ numforecasts: 234; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1780 When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/ numforecasts: 183; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1781 When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1782 When will the student loan debt bubble "pop"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/ numforecasts: 168; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1783 How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1784 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/gc-to-be-caused-by-nanotech-if-it-occurs/ numforecasts: 162; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1785 How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1786 What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1787 What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1788 When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1789 When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/ numforecasts: 200; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1790 When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/ numforecasts: 194; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1791 Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1792 When will Solar Cycle 25 begin? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1793 By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1794 By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1795 Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/ numforecasts: 213; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1796 Increased off-world population in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/ numforecasts: 527; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1797 What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/ numforecasts: 199; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1798 When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1799 When will there be at least 5 billion internet users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1800 Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1801 What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1802 If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1803 When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1804 Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1805 Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/ numforecasts: 359; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1806 Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1807 What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1808 Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1809 When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1810 What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/ numforecasts: 227; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1811 What will US house prices be at the end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1812 Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1813 Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1814 How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1815 Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1816 What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1817 Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1818 By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1819 What will be the population of Próspera in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/ numforecasts: 175; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1820 The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1821 Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1822 Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1823 When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1824 Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1825 When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1826 When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/ numforecasts: 155; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1827 When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/ numforecasts: 348; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1828 Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5409/un-security-council-vetoes-2021/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1829 When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1830 When will the first cloned human be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/ numforecasts: 195; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1831 Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/ numforecasts: 224; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1832 If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1833 Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1834 How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1835 Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1836 Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/ numforecasts: 716; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1837 Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1838 When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1839 Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/ numforecasts: 170; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1840 When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1841 Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/ numforecasts: 186; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1842 Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/ numforecasts: 627; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1843 What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1844 How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1845 What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1846 Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1847 If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/ numforecasts: 266; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1848 When will the UK hold its next general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1849 When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/ numforecasts: 155; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1850 Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/ numforecasts: 312; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1851 What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1852 Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7096/fortifying-feed-for-hens-charity-in-2021/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1853 Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/ numforecasts: 385; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1854 3.6°C global warming by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/ numforecasts: 154; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1855 Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1856 What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1857 What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1858 If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1859 When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1860 When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1861 When will we have micropayments? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1862 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/ numforecasts: 230; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1863 Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1864 What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1865 Will Moore's Law end by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/ numforecasts: 317; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1866 How many emoji related court cases in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1867 Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1868 When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1869 What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1870 When will programs write programs for us? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/ numforecasts: 265; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1871 What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/ numforecasts: 140; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1872 When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4367/when-is-the-earliest-day-the-world-has-less-than-50000-newly-infected-covid-19-cases-on-a-three-day-average-basis/ numforecasts: 188; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1873 Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1874 How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1875 Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1876 When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/ numforecasts: 169; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1877 If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1878 Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7017/us-troops-in-afghanistan-a-last-detail/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1879 What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1880 How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1881 What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1882 Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1883 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6977/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-animal-welfare/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1884 What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/ numforecasts: 199; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1885 What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1886 Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/ numforecasts: 1635; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1887 Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1888 What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5676/2020-world-hdi/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1889 What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/974/what-will-be-the-value-of-the-herein-described-ai-winter-index-at-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 295; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1890 What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1891 What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/ numforecasts: 170; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1892 Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1893 By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/ numforecasts: 114; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1894 When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male "pill") on the US market? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/507/when-will-there-be-a-reversible-male-contraceptive-aka-a-male-pill-on-the-us-market/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1895 How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1896 What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1897 Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1898 What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7035/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2030/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1899 How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1900 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/ numforecasts: 235; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1901 Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1902 Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1903 When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1904 What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1905 When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1906 When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1907 What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1908 In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/ numforecasts: 361; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1909 Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1910 Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/ numforecasts: 217; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1911 Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/ numforecasts: 385; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1912 When will there be a mile-high building? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/ numforecasts: 210; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1913 How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1914 Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1915 What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3237/what-will-the-average-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-over-the-2020-2021-period/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1916 If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1917 Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1918 When will one TeraFlOPS cost <$1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1919 When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1920 Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1921 Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1922 How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1923 13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1924 Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/ numforecasts: 162; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1925 What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ numforecasts: 189; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1926 Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7101/forethought-foundation-to-flounder-by-25/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1927 How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1928 When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1929 What will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5561/triplebyte-ml-engineer-salary/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1930 When will a universal flu vaccine be available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1931 Will anyone be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1932 How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1933 Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1934 How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1935 What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1936 Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/ numforecasts: 541; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1937 What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1938 How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1939 Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1940 Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1941 How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/ numforecasts: 257; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1942 When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1943 When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/ numforecasts: 301; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1944 When will any country stop using cash currency? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1449/when-will-any-country-stop-using-cash-currency/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1945 What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1946 What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1947 How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1948 When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1949 Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1950 A decrease in US meat production by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/ numforecasts: 207; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1951 What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1952 When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1953 When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/ numforecasts: 180; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1954 How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1955 What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1956 In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1957 When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1958 Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7128/vocs-to-make-up-50-of-virginia-sequences/ numforecasts: 227; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1959 When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1960 Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1961 When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1962 When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1963 When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/ numforecasts: 253; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1964 Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1965 Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/ numforecasts: 162; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1966 Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/ numforecasts: 73; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1967 If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1968 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7420/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1969 Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1970 Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1971 Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/ numforecasts: 201; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1972 When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/ numforecasts: 455; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1973 Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/ numforecasts: 260; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1974 Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/ numforecasts: 368; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1975 Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1976 When will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be launched? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7299/roman-space-telescope-launch-date/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1977 Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1978 How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7465/trade-signal-tournament-prize-pool-2021-09-30/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1979 When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1980 What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1981 How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7198/sens-research-foundation-revenue-2021/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1982 When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/ numforecasts: 154; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1983 Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1984 Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1985 Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1986 Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1987 When will Texas (ERCOT) next experience rotating electricity outages? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7391/next-texas-electricity-grid-outage/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1988 Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1989 When will Croatia adopt the euro? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1990 Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ numforecasts: 256; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1991 What will be the USA's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7006/gdp-of-the-usa-for-2025/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1992 Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1993 When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1994 Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/ numforecasts: 308; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1995 One Million Martian Residents by 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/ numforecasts: 456; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1996 When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ numforecasts: 137; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1997 Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6984/belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1998 When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 1999 Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2000 How many people will take the EA survey in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7318/ea-survey-responses-2030/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2001 What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7194/us-military-expenditure-in-2022/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2002 In 2050 what will be the all-time tennis slam singles record for men? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6890/all-time-tennis-slam-record-in-2050/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2003 What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2004 Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/ numforecasts: 276; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2005 Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2006 Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/ numforecasts: 1193; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2007 In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2008 When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7104/birthdate-of-the-first-human-to-live-to-1000/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2009 When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2010 How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2011 Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2012 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2013 How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2014 In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2015 How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/ numforecasts: 131; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2016 When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2017 When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2018 Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2019 Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/ numforecasts: 502; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2020 What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2021 What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2022 What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2023 Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2024 Will the Open Courts Act become law? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2025 When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2026 What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2027 What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2028 Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/ numforecasts: 224; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2029 Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2030 Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2031 When will a technology replace screens? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2032 What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2033 Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2034 How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2035 How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/ numforecasts: 114; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2036 Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/ numforecasts: 165; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2037 How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2038 Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2039 When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2040 What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2041 What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2042 Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/ numforecasts: 262; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2043 What will inflation be in the US in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/ numforecasts: 473; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2044 What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2045 Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/ numforecasts: 395; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2046 Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/ numforecasts: 279; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2047 When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2048 What percentage of predictions about "robotic judges" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2049 If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost? 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https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/ numforecasts: 194; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2053 If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2054 Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2055 Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7641/uk-inflation-prediction-in-2021/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3 2056 Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? 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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 181104 2062 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 stars: 3; shares_volume: 97944 2063 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 2021719 2064 Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 431094 2065 Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 982314 2066 Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 24930944 2067 Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 stars: 3; shares_volume: 75237 2068 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 stars: 3; shares_volume: 112146 2069 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 64907 2070 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 77712 2071 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 51914 2072 Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 84453 2073 Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 254373 2074 Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 184443 2075 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 191712 2076 Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 1245473 2077 Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 18581264 2078 Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 2975292 2079 Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 1051343 2080 Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed stars: 3; shares_volume: 1020585 2081 Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 102888 2082 Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 725336 2083 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 71965 2084 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 821057 2085 Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 486042 2086 Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL stars: 3; shares_volume: 175453 2087 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia stars: 3; shares_volume: 71642 2088 Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 102522 2089 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona stars: 3; shares_volume: 69469 2090 Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 441935 2091 Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 143385 2092 Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 70206 2093 How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against stars: 3; shares_volume: 2011827 2094 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust stars: 3; shares_volume: 535375 2095 Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 829445 2096 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 156197 2097 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination? 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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director stars: 3; shares_volume: 8596215 2103 Will Joe Biden resign during his first term? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term stars: 3; shares_volume: 1129435 2104 Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district stars: 3; shares_volume: 40220 2105 Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year stars: 3; shares_volume: 4486095 2106 Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 345333 2107 Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 323695 2108 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China stars: 3; shares_volume: 447531 2109 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 664932 2110 Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee stars: 3; shares_volume: 83423 2111 Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 259641 2112 Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 142676 2113 Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 429065 2114 How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 1251584 2115 Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district stars: 3; shares_volume: 22446 2116 What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 371224 2117 Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 2102746 2118 Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 22124 2119 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 47284 2120 Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 60663 2121 Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 46422 2122 Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 70234 2123 Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 54161 2124 Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 135246 2125 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 211783 2126 Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7200/Will-Canada-hold-national-parliamentary-elections-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 82282 2127 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri stars: 3; shares_volume: 37771 2128 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 20861 2129 Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 31667 2130 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa stars: 3; shares_volume: 32338 2131 Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023 stars: 3; shares_volume: 13932 2132 Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023 stars: 3; shares_volume: 2570 2133 Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 388449 2134 Who will be the governor of California on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7214/Who-will-be-the-governor-of-California-on-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 6007946 2135 Will Automatic Voter Registration become law in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7217/Will-Automatic-Voter-Registration-become-law-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 169531 2136 Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7229/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 87756 2137 How many refugees will Biden authorize to be admitted in the next fiscal year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7233/How-many-refugees-will-Biden-authorize-to-be-admitted-in-the-next-fiscal-year stars: 3; shares_volume: 248844 2138 Who will be prime minister of Israel on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7234/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 356690 2139 What will be the corporate tax rate for 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7237/What-will-be-the-corporate-tax-rate-for-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 228318 2140 Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7240/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 429262 2141 Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7241/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 147765 2142 Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7253/Who-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 32911 2143 How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7254/How-many-incumbent-US-Senators-will-be-re-elected-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 51815 2144 Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7257/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 82161 2145 Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7258/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Hampshire-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 7738 2146 Who will finish first in the 2021 mayoral primary in Cleveland? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7261/Who-will-finish-first-in-the-2021-mayoral-primary-in-Cleveland stars: 3; shares_volume: 167250 2147 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 116478 2148 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7270/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 50606 2149 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7271/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 8365 2150 Will Lisa Murkowski be re-elected in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7274/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-re-elected-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 76378 2151 Who will be elected Atlanta mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7275/Who-will-be-elected-Atlanta-mayor-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 65845 2152 Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7286/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 233497 2153 Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7288/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 13289 2154 Will Kevin McCarthy testify publicly before the Jan. 6 Committee in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7295/Will-Kevin-McCarthy-testify-publicly-before-the-Jan-6-Committee-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 14561 2155 Who will win the 2022 New York Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7307/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 25548 2156 Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7312/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-attorney-general-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 33292 2157 How many successful filibusters will there be in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7324/How-many-successful-filibusters-will-there-be-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 49349 2158 Who will be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7326/Who-will-be-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives-in-the-next-Congress stars: 3; shares_volume: 601321 2159 Will Donald Trump run for the House of Representatives in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7327/Will-Donald-Trump-run-for-the-House-of-Representatives-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 110193 2160 Who will win the 2022 Idaho Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7329/Who-will-win-the-2022-Idaho-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 6107 2161 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7343/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 6194 2162 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7348/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 10855 2163 How many VA House seats will Democrats win in the 2021 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7349/How-many-VA-House-seats-will-Democrats-win-in-the-2021-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 30218 2164 Who will be elected president of Chile in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7350/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Chile-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 169573 2165 Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 34425 2166 Who will be elected president of France in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7360/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-France-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 72690 2167 Enough signatures for a vote on recall of LA County DA George Gascón? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7361/Enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-LA-County-DA-George-Gascón stars: 3; shares_volume: 13319 2168 Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7363/Will-marijuana-be-rescheduled-under-the-Controlled-Substances-Act-by-April-20 stars: 3; shares_volume: 56690 2169 Who will be elected president of Colombia in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7371/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Colombia-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 5483 2170 Which party will win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7377/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 3610 2171 Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7378/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 4642 2172 Will Tracy Stone-Manning be confirmed as BLM Director by Oct. 8? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7379/Will-Tracy-Stone-Manning-be-confirmed-as-BLM-Director-by-Oct-8 stars: 3; shares_volume: 64457 2173 Which party will win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7380/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 7568 2174 Which party will win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 8970 2175 Which party will win the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7384/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Kansas-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 3030 2176 Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7386/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 13457 2177 Which party will win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7387/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 8650 2178 Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7391/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 7502 2179 Who will be elected president of the Philippines in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 16679 2180 Which party will win the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7394/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maine-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 4388 2181 Who will be elected Buffalo, NY mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7395/Who-will-be-elected-Buffalo,-NY-mayor-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 199018 2182 Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve stars: 3; shares_volume: 182188 2183 How many votes to confirm Veronica Rossman to the Tenth Cir. by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7403/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Veronica-Rossman-to-the-Tenth-Cir-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 114559 2184 How many votes to confirm Tana Lin to the Western Dist. of WA by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7404/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Tana-Lin-to-the-Western-Dist-of-WA-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 37190 2185 Who will win the 2022 Wyoming At-Large election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7411/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wyoming-At-Large-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 24874 2186 Who will be the next elected speaker of the New York City council? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7414/Who-will-be-the-next-elected-speaker-of-the-New-York-City-council stars: 3; shares_volume: 9365 2187 Will Kamala Harris be the 47th US president? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president stars: 3; shares_volume: 78689 2188 Will Congress raise or suspend the debt limit by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7421/Will-Congress-raise-or-suspend-the-debt-limit-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 157933 2189 How many votes to confirm Rohit Chopra as CFPB Director by Oct. 15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7424/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Rohit-Chopra-as-CFPB-Director-by-Oct-15 stars: 3; shares_volume: 35651 2190 How many votes to confirm David Chipman as ATF director by Oct. 15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7425/How-many-votes-to-confirm-David-Chipman-as-ATF-director-by-Oct-15 stars: 3; shares_volume: 58832 2191 How many seats will the Conservatives win in Norway's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7426/How-many-seats-will-the-Conservatives-win-in-Norway's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 44038 2192 Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7431/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 37718 2193 How many votes to confirm Margaret Strickland to the Dist. Ct. of NM by 10/22? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7432/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Margaret-Strickland-to-the-Dist-Ct-of-NM-by-10-22 stars: 3; shares_volume: 24810 2194 How many federal judges will be confirmed by Oct. 8? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7434/How-many-federal-judges-will-be-confirmed-by-Oct-8 stars: 3; shares_volume: 134602 2195 Will San Diego County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7439/Will-San-Diego-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 337556 2196 Who will win the 2022 Iowa Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7440/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 1676 2197 Will the Senate pass a bill via reconciliation by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7441/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-bill-via-reconciliation-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 50645 2198 How many seats will the Liberals win in Canada's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7443/How-many-seats-will-the-Liberals-win-in-Canada's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 218182 2199 Who will be the prime minister of Canada on Oct. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7444/Who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-Canada-on-Oct-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 227261 2200 Will Fresno County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7446/Will-Fresno-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 434753 2201 How many seats will the CDU/CSU win in Germany's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7450/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-CSU-win-in-Germany's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 14760 2202 How many seats will the Green Party win in Germany's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7451/How-many-seats-will-the-Green-Party-win-in-Germany's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 13946 2203 Will Sacramento County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7452/Will-Sacramento-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 128948 2204 Will San Bernardino County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7454/Will-San-Bernardino-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 230311 2205 Who will win the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 88289 2206 Will Orange County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7458/Will-Orange-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 397148 2207 How many Yea votes in the House for a bipartisan infrastructure bill by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7459/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-a-bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 65637 2208 Which of these 10 Asia-Pacific leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7463/Which-of-these-10-Asia-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 51602 2209 Which parties will be in the next German coalition? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7464/Which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-German-coalition stars: 3; shares_volume: 32537 2210 Who will win the Democratic nomination for the FL-20 special election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7465/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-for-the-FL-20-special-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 7986 2211 Will Jake Sullivan be National Security Advisor at the end of the year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7466/Will-Jake-Sullivan-be-National-Security-Advisor-at-the-end-of-the-year stars: 3; shares_volume: 18538 2212 What will be the margin in the California gubernatorial recall election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7469/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-California-gubernatorial-recall-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 2776130 2213 Who will be prime minister of the Czech Republic on July 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7471/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-the-Czech-Republic-on-July-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 418 2214 Who will be the prime minister of Japan on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7472/Who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-Japan-on-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 17440 2215 How many Yea votes in the House by Oct. 15 to pass reconciliation? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7473/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-by-Oct-15-to-pass-reconciliation stars: 3; shares_volume: 8419 2216 Will Rahm Emanuel be confirmed as ambassador to Japan by Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7474/Will-Rahm-Emanuel-be-confirmed-as-ambassador-to-Japan-by-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 7800 2217 Will Antony Blinken be Secretary of State at the end of the year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7475/Will-Antony-Blinken-be-Secretary-of-State-at-the-end-of-the-year stars: 3; shares_volume: 85559 2218 Will Biden's 538 approval rating be lower than disapproval on Oct. 12? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7476/Will-Biden's-538-approval-rating-be-lower-than-disapproval-on-Oct-12 stars: 3; shares_volume: 44744 2219 How many seats will the Social Democratic Party win in Germany's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7477/How-many-seats-will-the-Social-Democratic-Party-win-in-Germany's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 6193 2220 How many seats will the Conservatives win in Canada's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7479/How-many-seats-will-the-Conservatives-win-in-Canada's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 31330 2221 What will be the margin in Boston's preliminary mayoral election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7480/What-will-be-the-margin-in-Boston's-preliminary-mayoral-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 37279 2222 What will be the margin in Cleveland's mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7483/What-will-be-the-margin-in-Cleveland's-mayoral-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 10999 2223 Will Riverside County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7484/Will-Riverside-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 191578 2224 How many votes in the California recall election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7486/How-many-votes-in-the-California-recall-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 558050 2225 Will the Senate pass a bill via reconciliation by Nov. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7487/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-bill-via-reconciliation-by-Nov-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 3927 2226 What will Joe Biden's 538 job approval rating be for Sept. 21? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7488/What-will-Joe-Biden's-538-job-approval-rating-be-for-Sept-21 stars: 3; shares_volume: 348350 2227 Who will win in the 2021 mayoral election in Cleveland? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7489/Who-will-win-in-the-2021-mayoral-election-in-Cleveland stars: 3; shares_volume: 346 2228 Will a debt limit raise be enacted by Oct. 15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7490/Will-a-debt-limit-raise-be-enacted-by-Oct-15 stars: 3; shares_volume: 3934 2229 What will Joe Biden's RCP job approval rating be for Sept. 22? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7491/What-will-Joe-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-for-Sept-22 stars: 3; shares_volume: 51311 2230 Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2231 What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2232 Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Was-there-widespread-fraud-in-the-2020-US-election numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2233 Does Vitamin D reduce the severity of COVID-19 outcomes? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/does-vitamin-d-reduce-the-severity-of-covid-19-outcomes numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2234 What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2235 What Happened to Barry and Honey Sherman? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-happened-to-barry-and-honey-sherman-19972 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2236 What is the story behind Donald Trump's hair? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-is-the-story-behind-donald-trump-s-hair-12734 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2237 Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-former-new-england-patriots-tight-end-aaron-hernandez-commit-suicide-19060 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2238 Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/serial-who-killed-hae-min-lee-11513 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2239 What caused the chemical calamity in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2240 Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-miss-universe-2015-mistake-intentional-14197 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2241 Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-attacked-the-aid-convoy-in-syria-on-september-19-2016-16104 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2242 Who was behind the July 2016 Turkish coup attempt? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-was-behind-the-july-2016-turkish-coup-attempt-17401 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2243 Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-pakistan-know-that-osama-bin-laden-was-hiding-in-abbottabad-18034 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2244 Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-usain-bolt-use-performance-enhancing-drugs-14420 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2245 Was the July 28, 2015, Serbian lottery drawing rigged? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-july-28-2015-serbian-lottery-drawing-rigged-11364 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2246 Why was Seth Rich killed? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-seth-rich-killed-16122 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2247 Why was Stonehenge built? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-stonehenge-built-13169 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2248 Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/does-the-mmr-measles-mumps-and-rubella-vaccine-cause-autism-4925 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4 2249 Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-shot-down-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-over-ukraine-on-july-17-2014-8129 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4