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metaforecast/data/old/elicit-questions.csv

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2Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5648011363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4351988636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]3521431
3Will more than 50 people predict on this post?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8205128205128206,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1794871794871794,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2341261
4Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3674375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6325625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]1601041
5Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5289130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47108695652173915,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]138961
6Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.757280701754386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.242719298245614,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]114921
7The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6333177570093458,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3666822429906542,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]214911
8Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6183620689655173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.38163793103448274,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]116871
9How vivid is your visual imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5068067226890757,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4931932773109243,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]119771
10Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4249074074074074,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5750925925925926,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]108771
11Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]110771
12Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11789999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8821,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]100751
13How vivid is your sound imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6116981132075472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3883018867924528,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]106741
14Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2895876288659794,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7104123711340207,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]97731
15Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4311607142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5688392857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]112711
16There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5817721518987341,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4182278481012659,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]158701
17How vivid is your taste imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25726190476190475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7427380952380953,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]84691
18How vivid is your smell imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25414634146341464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7458536585365854,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]82681
19Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2538095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7461904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]84671
20Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1975862068965517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8024137931034483,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]87661
21How frequently do you think in words?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7812790697674419,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21872093023255812,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]86661
22Do you have an internal monologue?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8227500000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1772499999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]80631
23How good is your memory?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5229113924050633,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47708860759493665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]79631
24How vivid is your touch imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3612658227848101,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6387341772151899,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]79621
25How much control do you have over your mind?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45592105263157895,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5440789473684211,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]76611
26Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42764705882352944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5723529411764705,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]85571
27Trump will win a second termhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.462027027027027,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.537972972972973,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]74541
28Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3156060606060606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6843939393939393,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]66521
29Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24506666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7549333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]75521
30Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8951807228915662,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10481927710843375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]83451
31The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try ithttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0548,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9452,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]75411
32Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5xhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6021951219512195,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3978048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]41371
33The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20215384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7978461538461539,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]65361
34By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5548648648648649,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44513513513513514,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]37351
35Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6111904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3888095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]42331
36A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.687142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31285714285714294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]42341
37The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shotshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28800000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.712,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]50331
38Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign statehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007941176470588234,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920588235294118,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]34321
39Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36911764705882355,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6308823529411764,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]34291
40The Pope will be assassinated.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0303125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]32301
41Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47382978723404257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261702127659574,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]47281
42Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]34281
43The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38967741935483874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6103225806451613,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]31291
44PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]40291
45"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBChttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9709090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]33291
46Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5493617021276596,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45063829787234044,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]47281
47No military draft in the United States before 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9027272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09727272727272729,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]33281
48Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08806451612903227,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9119354838709677,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]31281
49No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.82125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17874999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]32281
50Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08678571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9132142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]28271
51Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.002307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9976923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26261
52...be an environmental disaster.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2479310344827586,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7520689655172415,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]29261
53In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8062264150943396,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19377358490566043,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]53261
54Trump wins Nobelhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10552631578947368,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8944736842105263,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]38261
55California will secede from the United States before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006764705882352942,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9932352941176471,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]34261
56Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4023809523809524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5976190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]42261
57Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018846153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9811538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26251
58Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4684375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5315624999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]32241
59For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5855882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41441176470588237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]34231
60Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07461538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9253846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26231
61"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9030769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26231
62The Singularity will occur by 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35119999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6488,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]25231
6350% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2439285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7560714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]28231
64By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]24221
65PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31120000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]25221
66Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6226923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37730769230769234,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26221
67Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33909090909090905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6609090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]33221
68Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8411111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15888888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]27221
69Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19347826086956524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8065217391304348,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]23221
70TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5815384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]39211
71In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7363999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]25211
72Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6084375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39156250000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]32211
73The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shotshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13119999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8688,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]25211
74The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3745833333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6254166666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]24211
75Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20482758620689656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7951724137931034,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]29211
76For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2885185185185185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7114814814814815,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]27211
77...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7019047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2980952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21211
78Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.994090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.005909090909090975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]22211
79Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2782857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7217142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]35201
80The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3109375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6890625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]32201
81Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34127659574468083,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6587234042553192,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]47201
82...all-things-considered, be good for the world.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8142857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18571428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]28201
83...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21201
84Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15333333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21201
85Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21636363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7836363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]22201
86Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8831818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]22201
87Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04739130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9526086956521739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]23201
88Google will survive for 15 more yearshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8838095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11619047619047618,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21201
89China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07454545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9254545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]22201
90Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9305,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]20191
91United States will invade Australia and take overhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21191
92Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5694285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4305714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]35191
9390% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4704761904761905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5295238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21191
94Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6031428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]35181
95...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.484,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.516,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]20191
96Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8313636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16863636363636358,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]22191
97In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8738461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12615384615384617,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26191
98The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using "more dakka", for some reasonable version of "more dakka"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20"more%20dakka",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20"more%20dakka"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20523809523809525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7947619047619048,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21191
99In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8185714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18142857142857138,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]28191
100...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3638095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6361904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21191
101Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Strosshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02210526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9778947368421053,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19191
102No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7484999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25150000000000006,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]20191
103Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45799999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]20191
104No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.13249999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]24191
105The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7243478260869566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2756521739130434,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]23191
106Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.648,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.352,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]40181
107The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3281481481481482,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6718518518518518,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]27181
108“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26181
109There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6427777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35722222222222233,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18181
110What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6434000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3565999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]50181
111We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8795238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21181
112Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5177777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4822222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18181
113The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decadehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6754545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3245454545454546,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]22181
114Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presencehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9668181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]22181
115My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08388888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9161111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18171
116It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.017222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9827777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18171
117'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarkehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.982,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]25171
118A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2161904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7838095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21171
119Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6933333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30666666666666675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18171
120Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4717391304347826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5282608695652173,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]23171
121Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12789473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8721052631578947,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19171
122“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]23171
123aliens invade earth in 2023https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.009444444444444445,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9905555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18171
124A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6905,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]20171
125Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26894736842105266,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19171
126The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8395238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16047619047619055,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]21171
127Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9531578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04684210526315791,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19161
128If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7770588235294117,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2229411764705883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17161
129By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18161
130Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4288888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5711111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18161
131Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16161
132An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5777777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42222222222222217,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18161
133A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.049,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.951,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]20161
134Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19105263157894736,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8089473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19161
135US presidents term limits abolishedhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02235294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9776470588235294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17161
136An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0811764705882353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9188235294117647,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17161
137Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35526315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6447368421052632,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19161
138There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.933125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06687500000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16151
139Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5517647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44823529411764707,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17151
140The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]20151
141If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7394117647058823,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2605882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17151
142If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.294375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.705625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16151
143If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6647058823529411,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33529411764705885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17151
144Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.23450000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]20151
145Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4064,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]25151
146Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5689655172413793,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43103448275862066,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]29151
147Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.926875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.073125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16151
148Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03705882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9629411764705882,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17151
149The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7811764705882354,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21882352941176464,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17151
150C still widely in use in the 2020shttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9353333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06466666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15151
151Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.118125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.881875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16151
152A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43473684210526314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5652631578947369,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19151
153Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1448,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8552,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]25151
154USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5852941176470589,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17151
155By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28214285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7178571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14141
156Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47388888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18141
157The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3026315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6973684210526316,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19141
158Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15141
159If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17394444444444446,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8260555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18141
160Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.111875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.888125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16141
161North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05941176470588236,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9405882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17141
162In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15141
163"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Millerhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0955,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9045,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]20141
164The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9214285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14141
165A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08785714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9121428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14141
166By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14141
167I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8220000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17799999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15141
168The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15141
169The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09823529411764706,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9017647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17141
170Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9299999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18141
171Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8717647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12823529411764711,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]17141
172"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15141
173The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11733333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8826666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15141
174Humanity still a thing in 2036https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13131
175If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5135714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.48642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14131
176Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18131
177We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40842105263157896,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.591578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19131
178ETI is AGIhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8461111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15388888888888885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]18131
179There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7389473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2610526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19131
180"The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15131
18110 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9158333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]36131
182Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.320625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6793750000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16131
183The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4446153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5553846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26131
184By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vancehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44153846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5584615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13131
185Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6271428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3728571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14131
186The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8146153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13131
187Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hansonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2764285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7235714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14131
188Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15131
189By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3830769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6169230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13131
190USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.045,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.955,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16131
191Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.853125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14687499999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16131
192In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1469230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8530769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13131
193The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13131
194By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11076923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8892307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13131
195Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2978571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7021428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14131
196Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.040769230769230766,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13131
197Trump dies of COVID-19https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]32131
198North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15131
199Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.106875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.893125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16131
200Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind")https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7324999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16131
201Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from todayhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16131
202Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1336842105263158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8663157894736842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19131
203All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04923076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9507692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13131
204Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15121
205Alphabet/Google buys Microsofthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07714285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9228571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14121
206If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6315384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3684615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26131
207In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4607142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5392857142857144,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14121
208Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15121
209“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12121
210“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03833333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9616666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12121
211By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweilhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.027333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9726666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15121
212The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14121
213the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshanskyhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9235714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14121
214Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8175,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12121
215The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15121
216The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5107142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4892857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14121
217"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeproghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33461538461538465,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13121
218Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8683333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1316666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12121
219'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevinhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8583333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12121
220Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3707692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6292307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13121
221Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.696923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.303076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13121
222We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24333333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12121
223No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6083333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12121
224Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3358333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6641666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12121
225Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013076923076923076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9869230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13121
226If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15121
227Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.49242424242424243,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5075757575757576,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]33121
228If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5689473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]19121
229Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5246666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4753333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15121
230There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13121
231North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16121
232Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adamshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15121
233The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.46692307692307694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.533076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13121
2341 year continuous human habitation of the moonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8407142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14121
235At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new sitehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21076923076923082,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13121
236Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9535714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14121
237100 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007931034482758621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920689655172413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]29121
238Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23377083333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7662291666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]24111
239Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43000000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
240The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4081818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5918181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]22111
241Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9646153846153847,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
242The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26111
243Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26272727272727275,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7372727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
244A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6136363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
245At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
246"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessenhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7516666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2483333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
247"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
248Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21272727272727274,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7872727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
249“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Andersonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
250Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7525,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
25150 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.016470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9835294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]34111
252Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2809090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7190909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
253SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
254Trump wins the 2020 election.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4753846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5246153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
255Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
256Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10181818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8981818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
257As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6778571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32214285714285706,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14111
258People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
259Republicans will win the 2024 presidential electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.543076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
260The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.024166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9758333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
261They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5557142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4442857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14111
262Trump will run for president in 2024https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7961538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
263With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08923076923076924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
264The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28428571428571425,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7157142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14111
265Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6592857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34071428571428575,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14111
266Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6866666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31333333333333324,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
267The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4314285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14111
268The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5407692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
269Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6836363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
270Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8921428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14111
271In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
272"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5621428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43785714285714283,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14111
273'President Mike Pence'https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.140625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.859375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16111
274No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7783333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22166666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
275Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9458333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
276Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14111
277Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44083333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5591666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
278China will land a man on Mars by 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
279“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
280We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5269230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47307692307692306,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
281Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10285714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8971428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14111
282The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]25111
283Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6679999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]15111
284GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4153846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5846153846153845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
285At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7091666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
286some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 yearshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9623076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
287"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Manganhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6481818181818181,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3518181818181819,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
288"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adamshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7927272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11111
289By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31384615384615383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6861538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
290No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demohttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45307692307692304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.546923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13111
291By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9325,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.0675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12111
292We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17923076923076922,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8207692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13101
293P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Kenhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44166666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5583333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12101
294In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbughttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09357142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9064285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14101
295". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan Kinghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13101
296A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
297Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.261,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
298Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained himhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5484615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45153846153846156,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]26101
299HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4309090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
300Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2963636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
301Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
302Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]16101
303The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.789,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21099999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
304Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Greyhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13142857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14101
305Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8908333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12101
306Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2907692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7092307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13101
307EU to dissolve by 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39454545454545453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6054545454545455,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
308Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.467,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5329999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
309Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.27785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7221428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14101
310Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7709999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2290000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
311By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearcehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
312By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.309,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6910000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
313By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
314Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12101
315By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8691666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12101
316homosexuality criminalized in the UShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
317At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
318“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9258333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12101
319WWIII starts before 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08857142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9114285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14101
320By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.750909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.24909090909090903,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
3211,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13101
322Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Marshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17300000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.827,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
323By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
324Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.887,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
325Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9863636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
326Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on ithttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.783,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
327“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13101
328Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.556,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44399999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
329Caitlyn Jenner = POTUShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.958,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
330“China will break apart by 2030”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24600000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.754,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
331HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9290909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
332The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.060909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9390909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
333What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09571428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9042857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]14101
334No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5272727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
335SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12101
336Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.198,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.802,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
337More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7361538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13101
338In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.796,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
339A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8790909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101
340Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7791666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]12101
341Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]10101
342By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3346153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6653846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]13101
343Airbnb to be acquired by 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicit[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3463636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6536363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]11101