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2Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnsonhttps://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leaderSmarkets[{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.03746229444390386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.0009730466089325679,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.025591125814926532,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0.027050695728325382,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.10810547825240828,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.06490220881580228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0.06276150627615062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.00544906101002238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.0810547825240829,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.07482728422691447,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.03892186435730271,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Leadsom","probability":0.013914566507735718,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tobias Ellwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Baker","probability":0.030359054198696115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.023158509292595112,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Esther McVey","probability":0.009730466089325677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Philip Hammond","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2904544127663715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Contracts to be added on request2
3Gender of next Conservative leaderhttps://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leaderSmarkets[{"name":"Male","probability":0.7736942156241513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Female","probability":0.22630578437584864,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?2
4Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkelhttps://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019Smarkets[{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.005923437361860137,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.019184864291397753,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.05702413579701176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.3810450004420476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.049155689152152765,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Nahles","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Gunther","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.03536380514543365,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wolfgang Schäuble","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julia Klockner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heiko Maas","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malu Dreyer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Altmaier","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralf Stegner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ursula Von der Leyen","probability":0.02758376801343825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sahra Wagenknecht","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Sonneborn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.38776412341968,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.03403766245247989,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.002917513924498276,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
5Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeonhttps://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leaderSmarkets[{"name":"Derek Mackay","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":null},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":null},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alex Salmond","probability":null},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tommy Sheppard","probability":null},{"name":"Angela Constance","probability":null},{"name":"Roseanna Cunningham","probability":null}]2
6Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Ministerhttps://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnsonSmarkets[{"probability":0.010336985734959687,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00010336985734959687,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.09840810419681621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.8911515402108745,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
7Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UKhttps://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnsonSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05664798777381558,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9433520122261844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. 2
8Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnsonhttps://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pmSmarkets[{"name":"Jeremy Corbyn","probability":0.014837895986349133,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nigel Farage","probability":0.007789895392833295,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jo Swinson","probability":0.08828548111877735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keir Starmer","probability":0.14266636990874693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.01060909563023963,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.02470509681727131,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.041249350842050586,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.02470509681727131,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.01609911714518881,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.021811707099933225,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Grieve","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.041249350842050586,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.020624675421025293,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Watson","probability":0.01609911714518881,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.028562949773722084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.0674382372579568,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.037094739965872835,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.03531419244751094,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.03531419244751094,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ken Clarke","probability":0.04495882483863787,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Harriet Harman","probability":0.007418947993174566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Beckett","probability":0.05497440462942354,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.21819126047926402,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Contracts to be added on request2
9NY-22 Congressional District Winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-raceSmarkets[{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6297324817180413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.3702675182819587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.2
10Year of next General Electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020Smarkets[{"name":"2020","probability":0.04392129304286718,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.06271960646521434,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.08784258608573436,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.18692902319044274,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024 or later","probability":0.6185874912157414,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
11Year of next Scottish referendumhttps://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendumSmarkets[{"probability":0.07764344119085889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.04822139911943532,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.17471521420085262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.09986721643720735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2729750506674121,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.3265776783842337,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
12Next Cabinet Member to leavehttps://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leaveSmarkets[{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.04501707544240919,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.05174376487633241,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.07389009624340268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.0985201283245369,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Buckland","probability":0.08279002380213185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ben Wallace","probability":0.12315016040567113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matt Hancock","probability":0.11249094484114663,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alok Sharma","probability":0.07958191037979924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Truss","probability":0.055986753596191666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thérèse Coffey","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.15223015626616995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"George Eustice","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Jenrick","probability":0.07958191037979924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Grant Shapps","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brandon Lewis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alister Jack","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Simon Hart","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Baroness Evans of Bowes Park","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Oliver Dowden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Milling","probability":0.04501707544240919,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
13Party to get the most seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-partySmarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4026069395997797,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.5463557921791813,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.0510372682210391,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Contracts to be added on request.2
14USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-dealSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2934948492941626,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7065051507058375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
15Year of next General Election in Hungaryhttps://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-electionSmarkets[{"name":"2022 or earlier","probability":0.3964413291096583,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?2
16Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021Smarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.851190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.10270219198790626,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.03259637188208617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.013510959939531365,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
17Winner of the 2022 French presidential electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022Smarkets[{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5378460406511542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.18035500781752964,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.047181090775314995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"François Baroin","probability":0.06566724914926883,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.03540881081578221,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.04598546859192495,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olivier Faure","probability":0.04377816609951255,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Marie Bigard","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean Lassalle","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joachim Son-Forget","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.04377816609951255,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernard Cazeneuve","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Arnaud Montebourg","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ségolène Royal","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florian Philippot","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Edouard Philippe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?2
18Macron first round vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022Smarkets[{"name":"Under 25%","probability":0.5155602574274882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25% or over","probability":0.48443974257251166,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?2
19Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmerSmarkets[{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0.241490404818602,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.10379604986692814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.10771816781061774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.038941028155203804,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anneliese Dodds","probability":0.07185880375402717,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rosena Allin-Khan","probability":0.07003782042302843,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andy Burnham","probability":0.14595881776159125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.06093290376803474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Clive Lewis","probability":0.07367978708502591,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0.038941028155203804,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ian Lavery","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Jarvis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nick Thomas-Symonds","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sam Tarry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Louise Haigh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burgon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dawn Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Carden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jess Phillips","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Lammy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Trickett","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Barry Gardiner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seema Malhotra","probability":0.04664518840173694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Ashworth","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Miliband","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hilary Benn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stella Creasy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rachel Reeves","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laura Pidcock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlotte Nichols","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kate Osborne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Greenwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zarah Sultana","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wes Streeting","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim McMahon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alison McGovern","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bridget Phillipson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? Other candidates available on request.2
20Gender of the next Labour leaderhttps://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmerSmarkets[{"name":"Female","probability":0.5508474576271186,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Male","probability":0.4491525423728813,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?2
21Year of next General Election to take place in Israelhttps://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-electionSmarkets[{"name":"2020","probability":0.03763359927743489,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.7307692307692307,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.23159716995333432,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
22First Minister to leave the Cabinet?https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-goSmarkets[{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.4085036637099884,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matt Hancock","probability":0.5914963362900116,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? 2
23Keir Starmer exit datehttps://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-dateSmarkets[{"name":"2023 or earlier","probability":0.3862793572311496,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2971260815822003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.3165945611866502,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?2
242021 London mayoral election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.9407146451937592,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.026472068444891795,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.00010065425264217412,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00010065425264217412,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.03140412682435833,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.00010065425264217412,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.00010065425264217412,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0010065425264217413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.2
25Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first roundhttps://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferencesSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28001209555488354,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7199879044451164,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?2
262021 West Midlands mayoral election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winnerSmarkets[{"name":"Andy Street","probability":0.6451702186548575,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liam Byrne","probability":0.3548297813451425,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Beverley Nielsen","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Downs","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.2
272021 Tees Valley mayoral election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winnerSmarkets[{"name":"Ben Houchen","probability":0.7529869408168935,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jessie Joe Jacobs","probability":0.24701305918310643,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.2
28Scottish Parliament election 2021 winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021Smarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.915064401717379,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.01437371663244353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.01866716445771887,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.05189471719245845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.2
29Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snpSmarkets[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5910243407707911,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.26411426639621366,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.08451656524678837,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.06034482758620689,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.2
30Local elections highest vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-shareSmarkets[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5932000683410217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.40679993165897826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?2
31Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkarhttps://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leaderSmarkets[{"name":"Simon Coveney","probability":0.6757322175732217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paschal Donohoe","probability":0.101115760111576,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Helen McEntee","probability":0.12633658763365874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josepha Madigan","probability":0.09681543468154347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Simon Harris","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Humphreys","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eoghan Murphy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charles Flanagan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sean Kyne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Bruton","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kehoe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Heydon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe McHugh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Ring","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Creed","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colm Brophy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Contracts to be added on request.2
32Irish reunification referendum before 2023https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023Smarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17627357659086904,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8237264234091309,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?2
33Next Scottish First Ministerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-ministerSmarkets[{"name":"Kate Forbes","probability":0.4077608142493639,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":0.4077608142493639,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shirley-Anne Somerville","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Russell","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.18447837150127228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Leonard","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jackson Carlaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.2
34French Presidential election to happen before 2022https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1252665739452944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8747334260547056,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
35Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challengeSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17219113215669393,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8278088678433061,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?2
36UK to begin imports of chlorinated chickenhttps://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chickenSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0832417307884481,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9167582692115519,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?2
37Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021Smarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13811678517560871,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8618832148243913,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?2
38Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022Smarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16540927951716333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8345907204828368,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?2
39Next Fianna Fáil leaderhttps://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martinSmarkets[{"name":"Jim O'Callaghan","probability":0.39789438502673796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael McGrath","probability":0.3410762032085562,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dara Calleary","probability":0.2610294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas Byrne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Niall Collins","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Lawless","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul McAuliffe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darragh O'Brien","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norma Foley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Troy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McGuinness","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jack Chambers","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Browne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Rabbitte","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seán Ó Fearghail","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eamon O'Cuiv","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.2
40Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-refSmarkets[{"name":"For independence","probability":0.5534059668058242,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Against independence","probability":0.4465940331941757,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
41Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majoritySmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6512014065247119,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3487985934752882,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
42Next general election overall majorityhttps://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majoritySmarkets[{"name":"No overall majority","probability":0.4391107613614007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative majority","probability":0.30739720637418844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour majority","probability":0.24906551249262243,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat majority","probability":0.004426519771788313,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.2
43Date of next Japanese general electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Before 22 October 2021","probability":0.5904173106646059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22 October 2021 or later","probability":0.4095826893353941,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]When will the next Japanese general election take place?2
44Belarus to have a General Election in 2021https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4664641271325076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5335358728674924,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
45Joe Biden to serve full termhttps://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-termSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5288406624785836,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4711593375214163,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.2
462024 Democratic presidential nomineehttps://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nomineeSmarkets[{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.3583343785275304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.3743885613947071,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.05230151762197416,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.08365734353442869,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0.04640662235043271,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06271165182490906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.020945691709519626,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Klobuchar","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Garcetti","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cory Booker","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gretchen Whitmer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0.0012542330364981814,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.2
472024 Republican presidential nomineehttps://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nomineeSmarkets[{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.29622716971070523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.022263698173576853,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.031729102786295156,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.06345820557259031,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.028929476069857348,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.055592587654979334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.1586455139314758,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.026663111585121982,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.05799226769764031,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.0833222237035062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.04599386748433542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Trump","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.013331555792560991,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.013331555792560991,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.10251966404479403,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.2
482024 US presidential winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winnerSmarkets[{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.15712956501511977,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.2194696441032798,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.15305885089555707,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.026401488718306578,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.011630611770179109,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.04477785531518957,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.06838799720865316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.021167713421725978,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.07757618050709465,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.07501744591765526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.05815305885089554,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.02907652942544777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.05815305885089554,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Candace Owens","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.2
492021 London mayoral election second placehttps://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-placeSmarkets[{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.8487046632124352,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.02044276966556759,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.07847385774846914,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.05237870937352802,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.2
50Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assemblyhttps://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seatSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13046653884780424,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8695334611521957,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?2
51Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4087618689480116,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democrat","probability":0.5912381310519883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Contracts available on request.2
52London Assembly: Labour majorityhttps://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majoritySmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41771041084962107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5822895891503789,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?2
53How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021Smarkets[{"name":"Fewer than 3","probability":0.1314345193035579,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 3","probability":0.3309046177138531,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 4","probability":0.5376608629825889,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?2
542021 Norwegian election: Most voteshttps://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Conservative (Høyre)","probability":0.5001237725884974,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)","probability":0.27056687845531807,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.1375526033501114,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.04587837280303655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.04587837280303655,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)2
552021 Norwegian election: Largest minor partyhttps://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-partySmarkets[{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.7432820245238717,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.17392816766675365,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.08278980780937473,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.2
562021 Dutch election: PVV seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seatsSmarkets[{"name":"Fewer than 20","probability":0.37488097505237095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20–24","probability":0.38706912968958296,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25 or more","probability":0.2380498952580461,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?2
572021 Dutch election: Government seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seatsSmarkets[{"name":"Fewer than 65","probability":0.14137901789500468,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65–69","probability":0.2019336782291578,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"70–74","probability":0.27809346111440925,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 or more","probability":0.37859384276142816,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?2
582021 Dutch election: Biggest left partyhttps://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-partySmarkets[{"name":"GroenLinks","probability":0.3223032342493924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)","probability":0.16694709291456347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)","probability":0.5107496728360442,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?2
59Brexit Party to control any councilhttps://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-councilSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.050332192470304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.949667807529696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?2
60Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assemblyhttps://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seatSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09087437953417335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9091256204658267,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?2
61London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seatsSmarkets[{"name":"0–2","probability":0.7598774124078522,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0.24012258759214777,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?2
62Joe Biden's first international visithttps://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visitSmarkets[{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.7204754278007249,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republic of Ireland","probability":0.12045856865885526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.03371828373935767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.10284076540504088,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"China","probability":0.014077383461181826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ukraine","probability":0.008429570934839417,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?2
63Biden approval on day 100https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100Smarkets[{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.0283973989628776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45–49.9%","probability":0.1646226026833484,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50–54.9%","probability":0.49888879743188735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55–59.9%","probability":0.18709358794962547,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60–64.9%","probability":0.10832167256564326,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65% or over","probability":0.012675940406617828,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?2
64Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretaryhttps://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-postSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7920825016633399,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.20791749833666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?2
65Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretaryhttps://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretarySmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.37464865354973254,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6253513464502675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?2
66Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Labor","probability":0.8232995177116248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coalition","probability":0.010394146016963247,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Any other party","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
672021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Tracy Brabin","probability":0.8051441932969603,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative Party candidate","probability":0.19485580670303976,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.2
68Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-electionSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.8055977823482071,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.19440221765179289,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.2
69Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021Smarkets[{"name":"GERB","probability":0.5904451874010205,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"BSP","probability":0.3792011261657575,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"ITN","probability":0.03035368643322189,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
70Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-shareSmarkets[{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.32353451266042316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45.0–49.9%","probability":0.4250780437044745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50% or over","probability":0.2513874436351023,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?2
71Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-julySmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.724179585262734,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.27582041473726593,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?2
72London elections: In-person votinghttps://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-votingSmarkets[{"name":"In-person and postal voting","probability":0.947219512195122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Postal voting only","probability":0.05278048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?2
73London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-aheadSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9556486987035774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04435130129642265,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
74$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 dayshttps://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-daysSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03920031360250882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9607996863974911,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?2
75New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidatehttps://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021Smarkets[{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.5402559680493783,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.17454842516111463,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.08250884995915403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.04129980938549514,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.10801488608514115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.053372061359716796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.2
76Trump to create new political partyhttps://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-partySmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11602004826434008,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8839799517356599,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?2
77Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-electionSmarkets[{"name":"CDU + CSU","probability":0.8866338069005509,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"SPD","probability":0.053735382236397025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.04204117135401566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"AfD","probability":0.01758963950903644,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
78Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primaryhttps://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jrSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
792022 House of Representatives controlhttps://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-controlSmarkets[{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.3759190298863745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6240809701136256,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?2
80President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendmenthttps://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeqSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42494958225295304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.575050417747047,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
812022 Senate controlhttps://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-controlSmarkets[{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.44550898203592815,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5544910179640719,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?2
82Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandySmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6005369127516779,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39946308724832214,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
832022 House and Senate controlhttps://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-controlSmarkets[{"name":"D House / D Senate","probability":0.2841289413422582,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"D House / R Senate","probability":0.12585872820151486,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House / D Senate","probability":0.2230051083318654,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House / R Senate","probability":0.36700722212436143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?2
84Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubmanSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5028976732116599,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4971023267883401,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
852021 Dutch election: Most seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seatsSmarkets[{"name":"VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)","probability":0.9792249300838993,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"PVV (Party for Freedom)","probability":0.020775069916100678,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election?2
86Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnoutSmarkets[{"name":"50% and below","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"51-53%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54-56%","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"57%+","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
87Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congresshttps://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congressSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06661340257665035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9333865974233496,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?2
882021 Israeli election: Likud seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seatsSmarkets[{"name":"26 or fewer","probability":0.15643338880616622,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27–28","probability":0.20854865551370758,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29–30","probability":0.26145222037312776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"31–32","probability":0.2367522116142594,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"33 or more","probability":0.13681352369273886,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?2
892021 Israeli election: Joint List seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seatsSmarkets[{"name":"8 or fewer","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?2
90Next G20 leader to leavehttps://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leaveSmarkets[{"name":"Yoshihide Suga (Japan)","probability":0.5845854201446856,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron (France)","probability":0.2107679465776294,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden (United States)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)","probability":0.20464663327768506,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau (Canada)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin (Russia)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping (China)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?2
91Year of next Canadian federal electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-electionSmarkets[{"name":"2021","probability":0.4012149786925378,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.17109438752380088,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023 or later","probability":0.42769063378366123,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]When will the next Canadian federal election take place?2
92Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliamenthttps://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliamentSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11546469808820746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8845353019117925,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
93Brian Rose vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-shareSmarkets[{"name":"Less than 2.0%","probability":0.5994000999833361,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2.0% or more","probability":0.4005999000166639,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?2
94Aberdeenshire Westhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-westSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5665742024965326,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.43342579750346744,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
95Ayrhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayrSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6379892345588906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.36201076544110933,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
96Dumbartonhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbartonSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6490849447513812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.35091505524861877,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
97Dumfriesshirehttps://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshireSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5926263916773133,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.40737360832268665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
98East Lothianhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothianSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6236568930977964,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3034966308504826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.072846476051721,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
99Eastwoodhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwoodSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.4389185278958314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4389185278958314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.1221629442083371,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
100Edinburgh Centralhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-centralSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6831238779174147,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.18821065230400957,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.06433273488928785,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scottish Green","probability":0.06433273488928785,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
101Edinburgh Southernhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southernSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5527840059790732,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.33604260089686094,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.11117339312406577,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
102Edinburgh Westernhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-westernSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
103Galloway and West Dumfrieshttps://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfriesSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
104Glasgow Kelvinhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvinSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.7601773113804958,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.07535733671069297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scottish Green","probability":0.16446535190881129,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
105North East Fifehttps://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fifeSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.32412084246640616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0.6758791575335938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
1062021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labourSmarkets[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.8685577307231322,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.13144226927686778,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.2
1072021 Senedd election: Labour majorityhttps://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majoritySmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.32688113413304254,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6731188658669575,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?2
108Nicola Sturgeon exit datehttps://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-dateSmarkets[{"name":"2021","probability":0.3659714952894758,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.6340285047105242,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?2
109Aberdeen South and North Kincardinehttps://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardineSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
110Aberdeenshire Easthttps://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-eastSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.7619047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.23809523809523808,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
111Angus North and Mearnshttps://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearnsSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.668265240247164,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.33173475975283595,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
112Banffshire and Buchan Coasthttps://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coastSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
113Edinburgh Pentlandshttps://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlandsSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
114Morayhttps://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moraySmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6165456089048204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.3834543910951797,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
115Perthshire Northhttps://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-northSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6760837347165617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.3239162652834383,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
116Perthshire South and Kinross-shirehttps://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shireSmarkets[{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?2
117Referendum on monarchy by 2024https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024Smarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1816695431010991,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8183304568989009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?2
118Aberconwyhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwySmarkets[{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
119Blaenau Gwenthttps://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwentSmarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
120Brecon and Radnorshirehttps://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshireSmarkets[{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
121Caerphillyhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphillySmarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
122Cardiff Centralhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-centralSmarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
123Cardiff Northhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112712/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-northSmarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Cardiff North at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
124Cardiff Westhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112713/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-westSmarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Cardiff West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
125Ceredigionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112716/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ceredigionSmarkets[{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Ceredigion at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
126Clwyd Southhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112717/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/clwyd-southSmarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Clwyd South at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
127Gowerhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112718/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/gowerSmarkets[{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Gower at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
128Llanellihttps://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelliSmarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
129Preseli Pembrokeshirehttps://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshireSmarkets[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
130Vale of Clwydhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwydSmarkets[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
131Vale of Glamorganhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorganSmarkets[{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2
132Wrexhamhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexhamSmarkets[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?2